Bitcoin Speculators Retreat As Long-Term Holders Double Down Since $69,000 Peak

August 16, 2023

The Bitcoin market continues to reveal trends and patterns, vital for both long-term holders and short-term speculators. Notably, since Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $69,000, speculators, who play a pivotal role in the market, now hold less of the cryptocurrency.

This insight comes from prominent analytics firm Glassnode in its “The Week On-Chain” newsletter, which delves into the market’s dynamics and potential implications.

Bitcoin Stagnation And Role Of Short-Term Holders

The Bitcoin market has witnessed a prolonged period marked by relatively steady BTC price action. This phase has sown seeds of discontent among market participants, prompting speculation about potential downside risks.

So far, the asset only hovers between $29,000 and $25,000 price points creating a tug-of-war between the bulls and bears in that price zones.

A noteworthy shift in the Bitcoin market is the dwindling enthusiasm of its short-term traders, commonly referred to as speculators. This group, typically driven by the prospects of swift gains, seems to be re-evaluating its stance, perhaps deterred by the recent lack of significant price movement.

Glassnode points out that the market share of these short-term holders has ebbed to a mere 2.56 million BTC. This stands in stark contrast to their presence in October 2021, right before Bitcoin soared to its record high.

Yet, while these speculators recede, long-term holders, often viewed as the bedrock of the Bitcoin community, are seemingly undeterred. Their stronghold over the currency is tightening, with a current hold of 14.6M BTC, the highest ever recorded.

The report noted:

Overall, this suggests that conviction of Bitcoin investors does remain impressively high, and very few are willing to liquidate their holdings.

A Market Teetering On Decisions

The distinction in purchase prices between the two investor classes has been highlighted as a potential concern. According to the newsletter, Short-term speculators, having bought at a higher average price of $28,600, might be more susceptible to incurring losses with even a modest dip in Bitcoin’s price.

On the other hand, long-term investors, with an aggregate purchase price substantially lower at around $20,300, seem more cushioned against market volatility.

This variance in purchasing prices, combined with the contrasting reactions of the two investor groups, paints a picture of a market in flux, divided between those who believe in Bitcoin’s long-term value and those swayed by its immediate price trajectories.

Glassnode believes that “The separation between these two cost basis is an indicator that many recent buyers have a relatively elevated acquisition price.”

Despite the current market uncertainty, an underlying sentiment that remains clear is the confidence of Bitcoin’s stalwarts. Their increasing hold suggests a steadfast belief in Bitcoin’s potential, even as speculators seem to waver amid its current price downturn.

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView