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Ethereum Bloodbath Incoming? Celsius’ $125 Million Move Threatens ETH Price

The Ethereum price might be doing well post-spot Bitcoin ETF launch, but recent moves by Celsius threaten to destabilize the price movement. The now-bankrupt crypto lender seems to have begun its reimbursement plan to its creditors, as on-chain data reveal the movement of its ETH holdings to crypto exchanges.

According to crypto market intelligence company Arkham Intelligence, Celsius Network carried out transfers worth over $125 million worth of ETH last week to various crypto exchanges.

Celsius Transfers ETH To Exchanges

Data shows that between January 8 and January 12, Celsius executed transfers worth $95.5 million to crypto exchange Coinbase while also sending $29.73 million to FalconX. At the time of writing, Celsius Network’s balance sheet has 584,601 ETH worth $1.47 billion. Notably, it also has 9,799 BTC worth $418.2 million and 659 million CEL tokens worth $133.2 million on its books, among other cryptocurrencies.

Looks like Celsius took the opportunity to unload >$125M of ETH over ETF Week.

In the past week, they’ve deposited $95.5M to Coinbase and sent $29.73M to FalconX.

They still have $1.4 billion (540K ETH) remaining.https://t.co/jp1PJbN46r pic.twitter.com/xgfX6yU5Ye

— Arkham (@ArkhamIntel) January 13, 2024

Celsius’s motive behind the transfers into exchange points to nothing apart from an intending selloff, as the company is well on its way to clearing its liabilities under bankruptcy proceedings. 

Celsius filed for bankruptcy in July 2022 shortly after the fall of TerraUSD and the LUNA ecosystem, leading to creditors having their funds trapped on the platform for the last 18 months. However, the defunct crypto lender has been making major moves in its bankruptcy proceedings to refund creditors. According to reports, the company sold $240 million worth of ETH in December 2023.

Notably, the company communicated its decision earlier this month on January 5 to unstake $465 million worth of Ethereum (ETH) which will be distributed to its creditors.

Incoming Ethereum Price Crash?

Ethereum is currently on a roll, still on a 13% gain in the past seven days. However, huge selloffs like this tend to shake market confidence, leading to a sell-off from other investors. On the other hand, some tend to believe that the crypto is sufficiently resilient.

It’s important to note that Ethereum retained its bullish sentiment during the time these transfers were made, as price action revealed a 23% jump from $2,191 on January 8 to $2,706 on January 12. Ethereum has declined since then and is now trading at $2,514. According to Coinglass, $23.84 million worth of ETH positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours.

Despite the recent large transfers, Celsius still retains significant cryptocurrency assets including ETH, BTC, MATIC, and LINK. A decision to continue the selling off of these assets could lead to a bigger dent in the price of the assets, particularly Ethereum, which is now testing the $2,500 support level.

On-chain data from Spotonchain also reported FTX and Alameda Research moving 1,000 ETH worth $2.33 million to crypto exchange Coinbase during the week.

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Blockchain

How Low Can Bitcoin Go? CryptoQuant Head Reveals Target

In the midst of Bitcoin’s recent price struggle, CryptoQuant head of research has revealed the level Bitcoin can potentially sink down to.

Bitcoin Might Go Down To As Low As Realized Price Of 1 To 3 Months Old Hands

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno has discussed how low the BTC price can go following the latest correction. “To evaluate this I like to look at the realized price of 1 to 3 month-old holders,” explains Moreno.

The “realized price” refers to an indicator that basically tells us about the average price at which investors in the Bitcoin market acquired their coins. This metric uses on-chain data to find the cost basis of holders, by assuming that the last transfer of any coin in circulation was when the coin changed hands.

When the spot price of the cryptocurrency is above the realized price, it means that the investors as a whole are carrying some unrealized gains currently. On the other hand, the price being lower than the metric suggests the overall market is underwater.

Naturally, when the realized price and spot price are exactly equal, the average investor in the sector could be assumed to be just breaking even on their investment.

In the context of the current topic, Moreno hasn’t applied the realized price to the entire user base but rather to just a segment of the investors: the 1-to 3-month-old holders.

The below chart shows the trend in the Bitcoin realized price for this particular holder group over the last year:

The 1 to 3 months old investors make up a part of the wider “short-term holder” (STH) cohort. The STHs are defined as investors who bought their coins within the last 155 days.

Thus, the holders who bought between 1 and 3 months ago would be on the younger side of this group. Generally, the STHs behave in a fickle manner, reacting to any significant changes in the market, like a rally or crash.

The more mature a holder’s coins become, the less likely the investor turns to show any such reaction. Since the 1 to 3-month-old hands, although not the youngest, are still young STHs, they are likely to react to price changes.

According to Moreno, the realized price of these STHs has “represented a support level historically and during 2023.” The reason behind the level being supported is likely the fact that these investors would closely watch their average cost basis and move to buy more when the price dips around there if the general mood around the market is bullish.

In times when the prevailing Bitcoin trend is bearish, the level can act as resistance instead, as these STHs would be willing to exit the market at their break-even point.

At present, the realized price of the 1 to 3-month-old STHs is $36,700. Given the historical pattern, it’s possible Bitcoin might dip to around there before finding support, if the current correction continues for long.

BTC Price

Since the asset’s price plunged under the $45,000 level a few days back, the Bitcoin price has been trading sideways around the $42,500 level.

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Blockchain

Ethereum Name Service Steals The Show: ENS Leaps 70%, Outperforming Crypto Market

Despite the recent challenges in the cryptocurrency market, Ethereum Name Service (ENS) has experienced a notable surge, increasing by 70% in the past week. This remarkable growth contrasts sharply with the overall bearish trend observed throughout 2023. Investors are now questioning whether ENS could be the symbol of recovery rising from the aftermath of the crypto crash.

As of this writing, ENS is trading for $24.6,3 down nearly 4% in the last 24 hours, data from Coingecko shows. The project has a market capitalization of $761 million, with a 31 million ENS supply in circulation.

Ethereum Name Service: From Frozen Depths To Soaring Heights

Just months ago, ENS lay buried under a blanket of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. Battered by a prolonged crypto winter and regulatory chills, it slumped to a five-year low in June 2023.

Yet, as the new year dawned, a thaw set in. Fueled by a surge of market confidence and a 50% price increase triggered by the recent approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs, ENS began a relentless climb, shattering its previous peak and leaving investors breathless in its wake.

What Ignited The ENS Engine?

This strong price ascent wasn’t born out of thin air. Several key factors fueled the ENS inferno:

Layer-2 Endorsement: Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has become a vocal champion of ENS integration with layer-2 scaling solutions. This vision of faster, cheaper transactions using human-readable ENS domains resonated with users and developers alike, painting a brighter future for the project.
DeFi Embrace: With decentralized finance (DeFi) taking center stage in the crypto revolution, the ease and security of ENS domains have become increasingly attractive. The ability to send and receive funds using simple names like “alice.eth” instead of long, alphanumeric wallet addresses is a game-changer for user experience.
Community-Driven Flight: Unlike traditional, centralized naming systems, ENS thrives on a decentralized foundation governed by smart contracts and a DAO. This democratic approach gives users a direct say in the project’s future, fostering a sense of ownership and community that fuels its growth.

Challenges On The Horizon?

Ethereum Name Service is a decentralized naming system on the Ethereum blockchain, for those who are unaware. It enables users to obtain names that are legible to humans, such as “bob.eth,” and associate them with identifiers like addresses, content hashes, and metadata.

Meanwhile, despite the sun-drenched optimism, storm clouds still linger on the horizon. Regulatory uncertainty surrounding Ethereum’s classification as a security or commodity could cast a shadow on ENS’s future. Additionally, the broader crypto market remains susceptible to sudden shifts in sentiment, making sustained growth anything but guaranteed.

The Road Ahead

The ENS rally serves as a powerful testament to its resilience and potential. However, navigating the volatile crypto landscape demands a cautious approach. As with any investment, careful research and a measured understanding of the risks involved are paramount.

One thing is certain: with its user-friendly domain names, community-driven spirit, and increasing DeFi and layer-2 integrations, ENS has carved a unique niche in the crypto ecosystem.

Featured image from Shutterstock

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Blockchain

Bitcoin To Reach $1 Million In Days To Weeks, Crypto Analyst

The CEO of Jan3 and Bitcoiner, Samson Mow, has once again reiterated his ultra-bullish prediction for Bitcoin. The Bitcoin advocate noted that the ‘Max Pain Theory’ was still in play, and this is one of the reasons why he isn’t backing down from his assertion that Bitcoin will hit this price level sooner rather than later. 

Bitcoin’s Rise To $1 Million To Happen “In Days To Weeks”

Samson Mow stated in an X (formerly Twitter) post that his “main prediction” is that Bitcoin’s run to $1 million will happen in “days to weeks.” However, he further claimed that the starting point for this meteoric rise has yet to be decided. 

The analyst’s bullish prediction for Bitcoin stems from his belief in the max pain theory, which relates to a Bitcoin price that could cause most options traders to experience maximum loss. In Mow’s opinion, Bitcoin bulls have experienced this loss following the approval of the Spot Bitcoin ETFs, and the bears could experience “some pain soon.”

Right before the approval order came in, Mow had predicted that Bitcoin was going to surge to $1 million in “days to weeks” and that most people were going to experience “max pain.” These ETFs also form part of the basis for why he believes that Bitcoin will hit this price level soon enough, as Mow foresees a huge demand for btc following this.

Mow says that the Bitcoin market is getting to a point where the existing supply will not meet current demand. He also alluded to the upcoming Bitcoin Halving, hinting that it could be one of the catalysts that will spark this parabolic rise in Bitcoin’s price. Interestingly, he had before now mentioned that Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high (ATH) before the Halving event takes place. 

A Market Adjustment Is Currently Ongoing

Mow also gave his opinion on the reason for Bitcoin’s recent decline as he noted that the market was simply adjusting. He further explained that GBTC holders were currently rotating out, which was pushing Bitcoin’s price down. He also alluded to how MicroStrategy’s stock was “trading below BTC par value.”

Therefore, the crypto community needs to be patient as “time is needed for everything to recalibrate,” Mow says. It shouldn’t be long for that to happen, though, as the crypto analyst claimed that the GBTC sell pressure “won’t be a long drawn out process.” 

He believes that many of GBTC’s investors won’t be able to offload their stocks because the “tax hit is too big” and that Grayscale will eventually capitulate on its fees. The asset manager currently has the largest fee among all Spot Bitcoin ETF issuers, and this is believed to be the reason why its investors are offloading their shares and rotating to other funds. 

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Blockchain

Bombshell Report: Polygon Team’s Secret MATIC Sales Lead To Depressed Price

In a detailed analysis released by crypto intelligence firm ChainArgos, allegations have surfaced about the Polygon team’s involvement in secret sales of MATIC tokens, potentially leading to a suppression of the token’s price. The revelations stem from an in-depth examination of the token allocations and subsequent flows to various exchanges.

ChainArgos, in a series of statements on X (formerly Twitter), elaborated on discrepancies between Polygon’s publicly stated token allocation plan and the actual flows observed. Notably, the firm identified irregular outflows from a “vesting contract” and a foundation contract, which ostensibly manages the allocations.

ChainArgos highlighted, “When you look at the flows you find a ‘vesting contract’ which mechanically unlocks all flows… That shape is odd and the gaps are all different sizes,” ChainArgos reported, indicating potential irregularities.

$1 Billion In MATIC Sold In Stealth Modus?

A critical point of concern is the supposed allocation for staking. ChainArgos’s analysis suggests that while the allocation table indicated a range from 400 million to 1.2 billion MATIC for staking, the actual flow into the staking contract started from zero and only reached 800 million.

This discrepancy of 400 million MATIC was traced to an address labelled ‘Binance 33’ on Etherscan, which ChainArgos asserts is not associated with staking activities. This address, interestingly, was also involved in a significant flow of 300 million MATIC to another address, which in turn sent 767 million MATIC to Binance exchange wallets.

“467 million [came] from the Etherscan-labeled “Matic: Marketing & Ecosystem wallet,” ChainArgos notes. The firm further argues that this pattern of outflows is a clear indicator of price manipulation, suggesting a coordinated effort by the Polygon team and Binance to discreetly move large amounts of MATIC.

“So this isn’t just some Binance-adjacent thing. The team and Binance are clearly working together to feed these tokens out the back, such as it is. As we are talking about 767 million tokens with a price somewhere roughly $1-$2, this is something like a billion dollars”, the crypto intelligence firm claims.

The firm also correlated the outflows from the address 0x2f4Ee with the MATIC price chart, suggesting that these movements were indicative of impending price tops and subsequent declines. ChainArgos claims, “Now let’s look at the outflows from 0x2f4ee over time. Bring up a price chart. We leave it as an exercise for the reader to work out this is *very obviously* a good indicator for an upcoming top and subsequent move lower.”

Lack Of Transparency, More Inconsistencies?

ChainArgos criticized the lack of transparency and oversight in these transactions, urging investors to be more diligent and questioning where their funds are being allocated. “This is not even well hidden. Again this has been in our demo for a while. This example is published as part of our docs. Because none of this is difficult to find. Do better “investors.” Also, maybe, ask where your money went,” ChainArgos states.

For context, the Polygon token supply distribution includes various categories such as Private Sale tokens (3.80% of the total supply), Launchpad sale tokens (19%), Team tokens (16%), Advisors tokens (4%), Network Operations tokens (12%), Foundation tokens (21.86%), and Ecosystem tokens (23.33%). The Launchpad sale, in particular, was conducted in April 2019, raising approximately $5,000,000 USD.

This report raises serious questions about the integrity of token allocations and the potential for market manipulation within the crypto space.

At press time, the Polygon team had not yet responded to ChainArgos’ report. MATIC traded at $0.86, up 11.6% in the last seven days.

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Blockchain

Crypto Analyst Predicts Next Moves For Bitcoin As Price Dips

In the ever-fluctuating world of cryptocurrencies, crypto analyst Doctor Profit has shared his insights on the upcoming trajectory for Bitcoin amid the digital asset’s price decline.

Here’s What’s Next For Bitcoin

The cryptocurrency analyst took to the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) to share his projections with the crypto community. Doctor Profit offered his insights after correctly foreseeing the recent drop in BTC, which started at the $48,000 price mark.

The analyst correctly identified the $48,000 level as a major resistance level and advised the community to short at this level. His accuracy in predicting has brought him a great deal of reputation and trust in the cryptocurrency space. 

His recent predictions, which are detailed in the most recent Sunday report, cover technical, psychological, and market analysis. It also offers a sophisticated perspective on both the current status of Bitcoin and its possible future movements.

Doctor Profit pointed out the Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) as a crucial aspect in determining Bitcoin’s next moves. He noted the importance of the EMA50, highlighting that the current market wick dropped below it but closed above it, suggesting the market’s resiliency. 

The post read:

One of these facts is the power of EMA50 that should not be ignored. I mentioned its importance two weeks ago, and you can check how the latest wick got fully eaten below EMA50 and closed its candle above. 

Furthermore, he revealed the next price level for BTC, if any breakout occurs from the EMA50. “Very important to keep your eyes on EM50 any breakout of EMA will send us to our target of 39.500 regions,” he stated.

Emphasizing the current market dynamics, Doctor Profit characterized them as being manipulated by market makers. According to the analyst, the dump is part of a broader plan to wear down investors and instil dread in them.

However, as a result of the dump, he noted that prices will certainly go much higher in the coming months. He further urged investors to hold fast and avoid falling victim to market traps, as he believes the “mother of all bull markets” is imminent.

Phase Two Of The Analyst’s Big Prediction 

Doctor Profit highlighted that we are in phase two of his predictions which kickstarts the “big manipulation.” Additionally, the phase will lead to pumps and dumps in order to make investors “lose hope in Bitcoin.”

Despite the current bearish period, Doctor Profit’s long-term forecast for Bitcoin is still bullish. He further emphasized that the “continuous correction will not put an end to the ETF pump.”

So far, the expert believes that the “real bull market has not yet begun.” Meanwhile, he expects the price of BTC to reach a new peak by the “end of the year.”

Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Stuck Below $48K Despite ETF Approval, Is This Bearish?

The price of Bitcoin is surprisingly down despite the approval of multiple BTC Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) by the SEC. BTC is currently trading at $42,624, indicating a drop of 2.90% in the past week.

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Blockchain

American Investment Bank TD Cowen Says Ethereum ETF Will Be Delayed

Despite the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) granting approval for Spot Bitcoin ETFs, TD Cowen, a prominent American investment bank and financial service firm, foresees potential delays in the approval process of Ethereum Spot ETFs. 

Ethereum Spot ETF Faces Potential Hold-Up

TD Cowen, an investment bank and financial service division of TD Securities has made a bold forecast, predicting that the US SEC is unlikely to approve Ethereum Spot ETFs before its deadline. Presently, the SEC is obligated to make its final decision on its rejection or acceptance of Ethereum Spot ETF from May 23 to August 7, 2024. 

Earlier on January 10, the SEC officially approved Spot Bitcoin ETFs, triggering expectations that ETH Spot ETFs would follow suit. Several major firms including Ark 21 Shares, VanEck, Fidelity, BlackRock, and Hashdex have submitted applications for a Spot Ethereum ETF. Additionally, the regulatory agency has fixed a new deadline for Grayscale’s Ethereum Spot ETF to January 25. 

TD Cowen’s predictions align with the SEC’s typical cautionary approach towards cryptocurrency-related investment products. The investment bank has disclosed that the regulator may delay ETH Spot ETFs until it accumulates sufficient knowledge and experience from its previously approved Bitcoin Spot ETFs. The bank estimates that while the delay may not take as long as 26 months, it is likely to persist beyond the upcoming elections.

Similarly, Scott Melker, a crypto investor on X (formerly Twitter) has highlighted the possibility of the SEC hesitating to approve Ethereum Spot ETFs. Melker predicted that the SEC would be reluctant to approve Ethereum ETFs without external legal pressures similar to those observed during the approval process of Spot Bitcoin ETFs. 

“Gary Gensler isn’t going to entertain an Ethereum Spot ETF unless the courts force it on him. I very seriously doubt we will see one anytime soon, but would love to be proven wrong,” Melker stated. 

Class Before Approval

JP Morgan, an American multinational financial service firm has introduced another layer of complexity in the approval process of Ethereum Spot ETFs. Managing Director at JP Morgan, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou stated that there was a 50% chance of the US SEC approving these Spot ETFs by its May deadline. 

Panigirtzoglou revealed that the SEC would need to classify ETH as a commodity, similar to Bitcoin before it can officially grant authorization for Spot Ethereum ETFs. 

In contrast, Bloomberg senior analyst, Eric Balchunas is more optimistic on Ethereum Spot ETF approvals. The analyst has disclosed a 70% chance of the SEC approving ETH Spot ETFs. Balchunas said previously that he could not imagine a scenario where the SEC would approve Spot Bitcoin ETFs and reject Ethereum Spot Bitcoin ETFs. 

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Blockchain

Chainlink Rises 17% – Is LINK On Course To Hit $20 This Week?

Traders in the crypto realm are watching Chainlink (LINK) with bated breath as the price coils up near the $16 mark, hinting at a possible break out towards $17, or even $20 given the right conditions this week.

Since November, LINK has been consolidating between $13.00 and $17.00, exhibiting classic market cycle behavior that presents prime opportunities for savvy traders.

Technical analysts are buzzing with potential bullish scenarios, with many pointing to the current price action as the telltale sign of an “accumulation phase.” As per the renowned Wyckoff method, this phase sees sellers exiting, prices stabilizing, and indecision ruling the market.

Will Chainlink Hit The Vaunted $20 Mark?

Following accumulation comes the much-anticipated “markup phase,” characterized by surging buying pressure, rapid price increases, and heightened activity.

And that’s precisely what the charts seem to be foreshadowing for LINK. Indicators like the Awesome Oscillator and MACD are flashing green and pushing towards bullish territory, suggesting growing confidence and impending upward momentum.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also leans north, potentially primed to cross its signal line and add fuel to the bullish fire.

Further bolstering the optimistic outlook are the Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Both the 100- and 200-day SMAs are pointing north, with the latter currently nestled comfortably at $9.994. This upward trajectory indicates the path of least resistance lies in ascending territory for LINK.

Should buying pressure build steam above current levels, analysts predict a potential leapfrog over the 50-day SMA at $16.95, paving the way for a psychological $17 price point. In a highly bullish scenario, LINK could even tap into its full $20 potential, marking a 20% surge from its current position.

17% Rally Ignites More Optimism For LINK

But a fresh spark ignites the conversation – Chainlink just surged 17% today, propelling it closer to the long-held $17 barrier. Could this recent rally be the catalyst that sends LINK rocketing past its immediate target and into uncharted territory?

It’s still too early to definitively say. While the technical indicators remain encouraging, external factors and market sentiment can shift rapidly. However, one thing is certain: Chainlink’s latest surge adds another layer of intrigue to its already captivating price action.

Whether it coils upward for a glorious breakout or succumbs to profit-taking, the next few days promise to be a thrilling ride for LINK holders and a fascinating case study for technical analysis enthusiasts alike.

Featured image from iStock

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Blockchain

Was 50% Of XRP Supply Sent To Bitfinex? Separating Facts From Fiction

A transaction involving a whopping 25.6 billion XRP (valued at nearly $15 billion), nearly half of the total circulating supply of approximately 54.26 billion, raised alarm within the crypto sector in the late evening of January 14. The transfer was reported to have originated from an unknown wallet to the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex.

Were 25.6 Billion XRP Really Moved?

However, further investigation revealed this to be a failed attempt at exploiting the “Partial Payments” function of the XRP Ledger, as confirmed by Paolo Ardoino, Chief Technology Officer (CTO) at Bitfinex.

The incident first came to public attention when Whale Alert, a renowned blockchain tracking platform, reported the massive transaction on X. This initial report, which was later retracted, created a stir in the market, raising concerns over a potential security breach in the XRP Ledger that could severely impact XRP’s market price.

Whale Alert acknowledged the error in their reporting with a clarification: “There was an issue with properly reading the Ripple node response, resulting in a few wrong posts. We fixed the issue.” Paolo Ardoino, who also holds the position of CEO of Tether, provided further insight into the incident, stating: “Someone attempted to attack Bitfinex via ‘Partial Payments Exploit’. Attack failed since Bitfinex properly handles the ‘delivered_amount’ data field.”

Ardoino also referenced a section on xrpl.org that explains partial payments in detail. This feature of the XRP Ledger allows a sender to enable a “Partial Payment” flag, resulting in the delivery of an amount less than what is indicated in the Amount field.

The exploit lies in the ability to manipulate this feature to deceive exchanges and gateways. The crucial factor in preventing such exploits is for platforms to use the ‘delivered_amount’ metadata field, rather than the Amount field, to determine the actual amount transferred.

In this particular case, the attacker only sent 16 XRP – a stark contrast to the reported 25.6 billion XRP. This small transaction triggered an alert to the on-chain monitoring system due to the way the Whale Alert systems process and report transactions.

Attacker Tried Other Exchanges As Well

Additionally, blockchain data revealed that similar failed attempts were made on other prominent cryptocurrency exchanges. Binance faced an attempted transfer of 58.9 billion XRP, and Bitstamp was targeted with a 26,200,000 XRP transfer. These transactions, like the one aimed at Bitfinex, were part of the exploiter’s strategy and did not result in the transfer of significant sums of the cryptocurrency.

At press time, the market price of XRP showed resilience against these incidents, maintaining stability at $0.58. Nevertheless, the XRP bears showed their strength again with yesterday’s weekly close. The price closed below the critical resistance of the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at $0.59. However, the bulls at least managed to defend the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA).

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Blockchain

Bitcoin Misery Worsens: King Crypto’s Worst Week Has Investors Shivering Near $35,000

The Bitcoin market is experiencing a period of adjustment following the much-anticipated launch of US spot ETFs last week. After a surge to a two-year high near $49,000, the leading cryptocurrency has pulled back over the past four days, currently trading at $42,588 with a market capitalization of $834 billion.

This correction presents an opportunity to assess the underlying dynamics and potential future trajectories of the digital asset.

ETF Approval Hype Fades: Markets React

The initial excitement surrounding the ETF approval was palpable, fueling a rapid price increase as investors anticipated increased accessibility and institutional adoption. However, profit-taking and market uncertainty quickly set in, pushing the price back down closer to pre-ETF levels.

This pattern aligns with the “buy the rumor, sell the fact” phenomenon often observed in financial markets, highlighting the distinction between anticipation and actualization.

Adding to the selling pressure are recent outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. The massive fund, previously trading at a discount due to its closed-ended structure, converted into an ETF last week.

However, some investors opted to redeem their shares instead of transitioning to the new structure, resulting in a net outflow of $579 million. This suggests that liquidity considerations and potential portfolio adjustments played a role in the post-ETF price movement.

Furthermore, the activity of Bitcoin miners, the decentralized network responsible for validating transactions and generating new coins, presents another factor to consider. The Bitcoin Miners’ Position Index (MPI) spiked to 9.43 on January 12, indicating a significant increase in Bitcoin movement by miners.

While the exact reasons for this activity remain unclear, it could potentially signal profit-taking by miners who wish to capitalize on the recent price appreciation.

Despite the recent correction, analysts remain divided on the short-term and long-term prospects for Bitcoin. Ali Martinez, a prominent crypto analyst, identifies a “parallel channel” pattern in the price chart, suggesting a potential retracement to $35,000 before a potential rebound towards $50,000.

However, Martinez also acknowledges the risk of further downside pressure if miners continue to sell their holdings.

Bitcoin Outlook: Analysts Cautious Amid Complexity

Tony Sycamore, another market analyst, takes a more conservative approach, anticipating range-bound trading between $38,000 and $40,000 in the near future. Both analysts emphasize the importance of monitoring miner activity and investor sentiment in the coming weeks, as these factors will play a crucial role in determining the next directional move for Bitcoin.

Ultimately, the recent market dynamics highlight the complexity of the Bitcoin ecosystem. While the ETF launch represents a significant milestone for institutional adoption, it is not a guaranteed catalyst for immediate price appreciation.

Meanwhile, just a few days after the historic approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dropped back to “neutral” levels, last seen in October 2023.

The indicator shows that the current market sentiment score for Bitcoin is 52 out of 100, which is the lowest since October 19 of last year, when the price of Bitcoin was trading for about $31,000 on a daily average.

Featured image from Shutterstock

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