In the past week, Bitcoin recorded an overall positive performance, gaining by 3.45%, according to data from CoinMarketCap. This price rise adds to BTC’s bullish form in the last 30 days, during which the maiden cryptocurrency has surged by 16.78%. However, despite this market uptick, there appears to be a growing trend of caution among Bitcoin traders, indicating fear of a potential price dump. 

Analyst Highlights Evidence Of Growing Caution In The Bitcoin Market

In an X Post on Saturday, popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez shared an interesting observation regarding the Bitcoin market with his 37,000 followers. 

According to Martinez, there is a significant decrease in the estimated leverage ratio in the BTC market across all exchanges. This indicates that traders are reducing their leverage risk and are now treading carefully in the BTC market, even amidst the current price gain. 

As #Bitcoin price climbs, we see a decrease in the Estimated Leverage Ratio – a sign that traders are reducing their leverage risk. This suggests a more cautious approach in the #crypto market despite the $BTC price uptick. pic.twitter.com/421FjfyV6b

— Ali (@ali_charts) December 22, 2023

For context, leverage is a trading function that allows users to borrow funds in order to increase the size of a position beyond what would be possible with one’s own capital alone. Leverage allows traders to amplify their profits potentially, albeit it also comes with increased risk. 

Now, the Estimated Leverage Ratio is a metric that quantifies the extent to which traders in the market are using leverage. Thus, a decreased estimated leverage ratio implies that traders are reducing the amount of borrowed funds relative to their own capital in their positions. In other words, they are decreasing the level of leverage they are using, which can be seen as a sign of caution among traders against a potential market dump. 

The BTC market, which is currently on an uptrend, has witnessed similar puzzling events recently. On Friday, NewsBTC reported that Bitcoin whales sold 50,000 BTC worth $2.2 billion in the last week. All these movements are indicative of investors preparing for a possible bearish trend. 

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $43,626, with a 0.09% decline in the last day. Meanwhile, the token’s daily trading volume is significantly down by 29.63% and is currently valued at $17.22 billion. 

For now, there is no clear indicative danger to BTC’s bullish form. Albeit, there is a high level of anticipation in regard to a potential approval order of the spot Bitcoin ETF in January.

While many analysts predict a spot Bitcoin ETF will lead to increased demand for Bitcoin, others are fearful of turning the maiden cryptocurrency into a state-controlled financial asset. However, Bitget chief analyst Ryan Lee anticipates Bitcoin to trade between $32,000 – $50,000 depending on the effects of this investment fund.

The price of Avalanche (AVAX) has been steadily rising leading up to the holiday season. Consequently, in just over two months, the altcoin has more than quintupled in value. In any case, the price of AVAX still has more potential than most other cryptocurrencies, which have seen rises of about 300% over the same time frame.

Investors and aficionados are keeping a careful eye on whether AVAX may reach this milestone before the end of the current year as the cryptocurrency makes steady progress toward the coveted $50 mark, a level it has not hit since May 2022.

AVAX Surges: From Resistance Break To $50 Anticipation

At the time of writing, AVAX was trading at $45.59, down 2.1% in the last seven days, but sustained a 6.7% rally in the last week, data from Coingecko shows. With a market valuation of more than $17 billion, the altcoin has become one of the largest in the business thanks to its continuous rise.

The value of the cryptocurrency has increased dramatically since October, when it was trading at a low of $8.50. With only two months to go, AVAX surged by more than 400%, setting a new annual high of $46.50 and sparking anticipation that it would hit $50 in the remaining days of the year.

AVAX achieved a major breakthrough by breaking away from a falling resistance trend line that had held for 750 days since its all-time high, which propelled this incredible ascension. This break free from the established trend line represented a significant technical advancement and was also a major factor in quickening the pace of AVAX’s price rise.

AVAX’s solid run so far is attributable to a number of favorable factors driving the broader cryptocurrency market. Macroeconomically, the recent drop in inflation rates and signs of probable interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve and other central banks in 2024 present a good climate for alternative assets like AVAX.

AVAX’s Potential Amid ETF Hope, Market Optimism

Moreover, there is hope that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would approve a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). If this happens, it may pave the way for the introduction of other cryptocurrency ETFs, such as those associated with Avalanche.

The crypto fear and greed index has risen to 75, signifying a favorable feeling, demonstrating the industry’s momentum. Historical data indicates that tokens like as AVAX have a tendency to perform well and remain resilient during times of market optimism, which may indicate additional upward movement in the present market environment.

Even with AVAX’s remarkable price surge, changes in Bitcoin’s price still have an impact. If Bitcoin falls for any reason, the price of Avalanche is probably going to follow.

#Avalanche $Avax 1w

On track! pic.twitter.com/pDM4hWzE7S

— FLASH (@THEFLASHTRADING) December 21, 2023

Meanwhile, crypto analysts on X believe that the trend is likely to go upward.

With a target price of $65, Flash has a bullish projection. His bullish view stems from a breakaway from a long-term trend and a move over a horizontal resistance zone.

Additionally, Bluntz Capital tweeted a bullish wave count that suggests the price of AVAX will finish the fifth and final wave close to $55.

Meanwhile, the price of AVAX stays above the weekly support level at $40 and advances into the resistance zone, which is located between $51 and $55. When compared to the current price of $45.49, this move would represent a gain of around 20%.

With momentum growing and significant changes expected in the cryptocurrency scene, Avalanche (AVAX) could experience a substantial % surge before a cooldown. The interplay of economic factors, regulations, and market sentiment creates an engaging story for both AVAX enthusiasts and investors.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Optimism price has been witnessing significant momentum over the past few days, becoming one of the top gainers in the market today. Thanks to this recent price growth, Optimism has seen its native token OP lay a serious claim to a place within the top 30 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.

However, it seems that the Optimism price movement may soon be turning bearish following the appearance of a sell signal on the price chart. 

Indicator That Preceded 80% Rally Turns Bearish, Analyst Says

In a recent post on the X platform, crypto analyst Ali Martinez sounded the sell alarm for the OP token. According to the popular crypto pundit, the Optimism price might be in the best range for investors to cash in on their profits.

The reasoning behind this forecast revolves around the TD (Tom DeMark) sequential indicator. Based on Martinez’s analysis, the indicator is currently flashing a sell signal on Optimism’s 12-hour price chart.

The crypto analyst highlighted that a buy signal from the TD sequential indicator preceded a substantial surge in Optimism price earlier in December. And this adds even more weight to the possibility of a bearish turnaround following a sell alarm from the indicator.

Martinez advised investors to think about taking profits right away, given that the OP price may decline and mirror the size of the initial bullish upswing. This projection comes during an exhilarating positive run for OP, putting the altcoin’s bullish trajectory in jeopardy. 

Optimism Price And Network Growth

As of this writing, the Optimism price stands at $3.37, reflecting an almost 34% price increase in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the value of the cryptocurrency has soared by more than 55% in the past week.

The OP coin looks set to end the year as one of the 30 largest cryptocurrencies in the sector, with its market cap recently surpassing $3 billion. This positive performance of the token – in such a short time span – only underscores the increased rate of network growth.

According to recent data from IntoTheBlock, the Optimism network boasts more than 5.9 million addresses with a balance. This represents a nearly 400% surge from 1.2 million in January 2023.

What a year for @Optimism! The network currently counts over 5.9 million addresses with a balance, up 391% from 1.2 million in January!https://t.co/b6bBM1Qd6z pic.twitter.com/58gPngqEk3

— IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) December 21, 2023

Growth of this caliber and magnitude suggests increased confidence, adoption, and usage of the Optimism network. And if this positive trend is anything to go by, there is a chance the Optimism price won’t be down for long – if the current bearish projection does come true.

Solana (SOL) and its associated meme coin, Bonk (BONK), have witnessed remarkable surges in value, with SOL recording gains of over 71% and Bonk experiencing an astonishing 342% increase over the past 30 days. 

The positive growth within the Solana ecosystem has resulted in a surge in demand for the flagship mobile device, Solana Saga. However, the Solana Mobile team recently addressed challenges in meeting the “overwhelming demand” and explained order cancellations and inventory management issues.

Solana Mobile Faces Inventory Mishap

Over the past month, SOL has seen a significant uptrend, inching closer to the $100 mark, a level not reached since April 2022. Additionally, Bonk has experienced an extraordinary surge reaching a trading value of $0.00001896.

Given these developments and the social buzz within the blockchain and its mobile device, the Solana Mobile team confirmed that their limited inventory of 20,000 devices worldwide has sold out, with both the US and EU markets experiencing high demand.

According to a recent statement on X (formerly Twitter), in the process of fulfilling orders, the Solana Mobile team encountered an “inventory management issue” with their third-party distributor. This issue resulted in an inaccurate representation of the available inventory.

Consequently, the team was unable to fulfill orders placed after the inventory was depleted. Additionally, orders suspected of suspicious activity, such as excessive device orders or payment risks, were flagged and subsequently canceled. 

According to the announcement, the objective behind these measures is to ensure that as many users as possible can enjoy the Solana Saga mobile device.

Customers affected by the order cancellations have been promptly notified, and they will receive refunds within the coming days. 

Solana’s DEX Volume Overtakes Ethereum And Arbitrum

The Solana ecosystem, together with its native token SOL, has recently achieved significant milestones. Notably, Solana’s 24-hour decentralized exchange (DEX) volume has exceeded that of Ethereum (ETH) and Arbitrum (ARB) combined, surpassing the $2 billion mark. 

Additionally, Solana has emerged as the third-largest altcoin (only behind BNB) by market capitalization. These achievements reflect the growing popularity and success of Solana within the cryptocurrency market.

According to Token Terminal data, SOL’s market cap (circulating) stands at $41.05 billion, reflecting a remarkable increase of 46.98%, flipping XRP’s market cap by over $7 billion.  

The revenue generated has also witnessed substantial growth, with an 80.43% increase to $2.39 million. Furthermore, SOL’s fully diluted market cap has reached $54.31 billion, showcasing a significant rise of 45.60%.

The revenue generated on the Solana platform, when annualized, amounts to an impressive $29.13 million, signifying a substantial increase of 94.75%. 

Examining SOL’s financial ratios, the price-to-fully diluted ratio stands at 796.78x, indicating the market’s high expectations for future growth. However, this ratio has experienced a recent decrease of 19.3%. 

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

A significant dip in XRP daily trading volume has caught the attention of investors and analysts alike. On Thursday, XRP’s trading volume plummeted to levels not seen in the past six years, a development that has raised eyebrows among crypto enthusiasts.

On this day, December 21st, #XRP : pic.twitter.com/ptHRTpkEeE

— WrathofKahneman (@WKahneman) December 22, 2023

Just XRP Or Industry-Wide Slump In Trade Volumes?

Reputed lawyer and XRP advocate, Bill Morgan, took to X (formerly Twitter) to shed light on this concerning trend highlighted by WrathKahneman. According to WrathKahneman, the trading volume of XRP on December 21 stood at approximately 1.9 billion, a stark contrast to the $2.4 billion witnessed in 2022 and drastically lower than $19.3 billion recorded in 2020.

What is most interesting or concerning about those figures is the daily XRP volume is lower on this day for this year and not this day in any of the previous 6 years. https://t.co/oQpr7avC54

— bill morgan (@Belisarius2020) December 22, 2023

This decline has sparked a debate over the implications for the token’s market dynamics and investor sentiment. While the decline in XRP’s trade volume has become a focal point for discussions, it is important to note that this trend isn’t isolated to XRP alone.

Mr. Huber, a recognized figure in the crypto world, pointed out that leading cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are also experiencing similar plunge in trade volumes. This broader market trend suggests a possible shift in the trading activities across the crypto landscape.

Media reports corroborates Mr. Huber’s assertion, indicating that Bitcoin’s trade volume as of August 28, 2023, had reached its lowest in four years. This pattern, reflected across multiple major cryptocurrencies, hints at a more complex market dynamic that extends beyond XRP.

XRP’s Current Market Performance

Despite the concerns over trading volume, XRP has exhibited resilience in its market price. Over the past 24 hours, the digital asset has seen a near 1% increase, with its trading price hovering around $0.61.

Although it experienced a 4.6% decline over the past two weeks, XRP’s performance over the past month shows a 3.8% increase. Currently, its trading volume has continued to decline further standing at about $1.3 billion, maintaining a relatively steady state compared to last Friday’s $1.2 billion.

Furthermore, Mr. Huber’s observation that the downturn in trading volume isn’t unique to XRP was echoed by another user, MoonLambo on X. This user, responding to Bill Morgan’s post highlighting what could be either interesting or concerning, supported Mr. Huber’s view by adding, “I disagree.”

MoonLambo disclosed that there is nothing concerning and that the plunging trading volume is not unusual or worrying. They point out that considering the vast number of days (around 2,200) over the past six years, focusing on just six specific days’ data is too narrow to draw meaningful conclusions.

According to their analysis of the all-time XRP/USD price chart, they note a consistent pattern where both XRP’s price and trade volume increase as market activity heats up. This pattern has been observed consistently over a decade, not only for XRP but also for other major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH.

MoonLambo further assert that the current state of XRP’s volume is typical and expect a significant increase in trade volume when XRP experiences its next market rally.

I disagree. This is not the least bit concerning. Nearly 2,200 days have passed in the last 6 years. Each day is a data point, and you’re only looking at 6 data points while ignoring the rest. You can’t draw a useful conclusion from such limited data here.

Look at the chart… pic.twitter.com/lvEnRfKs8t

— Moon Lambo (@MoonLamboio) December 22, 2023

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

On-chain data shows Bitcoin whales have sold $2.2 billion worth of BTC in the past week, but price has continued to hold strong so far.

Bitcoin Whales Have Distributed Around 50,000 BTC In Past Week

As pointed out by an analyst in a post on X, the BTC whales have been participating in some selling over the past week. The relevant indicator here is the “Supply Distribution” metric from the on-chain analytics firm Santiment, which tells us about the total amount of Bitcoin that the different investor groups are carrying in their combined wallets currently.

In the context of the current discussion, “whale” entities are of interest. These humongous investors are typically defined to be the addresses who carry between 1,000 to 10,000 BTC.

At the current exchange rate of the asset, this range converts to about $43.8 million at the lower end and $438 million at the upper limit. Due to the sheer scale of their holdings, the whales can carry some influence, and therefore, they can be entities worth tracking on the blockchain.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Supply Distribution specifically for these large holders over the past month:

As displayed in the above graph, the supply held by the Bitcoin whales has been showing a decline in the past week, after remaining stagnant for the preceding few weeks.

Most of the selling had come while BTC was still trading at the recent lows, suggesting that these were whales who had been panicking after BTC had failed its recovery run towards $44,000.

In total, these humongous investors have shed about 50,000 BTC from their combined wallets during this latest selloff, which is worth almost $2.2 billion right now.

Despite this selling, Bitcoin has gone on to hit another local bottom and make a recovery push again, this time actually making a retest of the $44,000 level (although the asset has slumped again since then, as it’s now trading below the mark once more).

Another analyst has also given a whale selling alert in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, citing the data for the “exchange inflow mean,” which is an indicator that measures the mean amount of Bitcoin that’s being transferred to centralized exchanges.

Exchange inflows can be a sign of selling as investors generally use these platforms for this purpose. The mean value of these deposit transactions shooting up naturally implies that large entities like the whales are involved and potentially participating in a selloff.

From the chart, it’s apparent that this metric has seen a couple of spikes in the last two days, suggesting that the whales are still continuing to make moves towards selling.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $43,500, up 3% in the past week.

As the long-awaited deadline for a positive or negative decision on spot Bitcoin ETF applications approaches, Bloomberg reports that the BTC options market is seeing increased hedging activity as traders prepare for a crucial decision on January 10th.

The report indicates a surge in open interest for put options expiring on Jan. 12, suggesting that market participants are taking steps to mitigate potential losses in the event of a negative verdict by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding these index funds holding the cryptocurrency. 

Market Readies For Bitcoin ETF Verdict

The Bloomberg report highlights that the open interest for put options, which allow holders to sell Bitcoin, has seen a significant increase for contracts expiring on January 12. 

This surge in open interest has resulted in a higher put-to-call ratio for these specific options compared to contracts with expiration dates further out from the January 10 deadline. 

As seen in the chart below, the most prominent strike prices for the put contracts are $44,000, $42,000, and $40,000, respectively, indicating that put holders could exercise their options to minimize losses in case of a negative market reaction to the SEC decision.

The put-to-call ratio, considered a measure of overall market sentiment, stands at 0.67 for the January 12 options contracts, indicating a more cautious approach among traders. 

Ryan Kim, head of derivatives at FalconX, suggests that leveraged/speculative traders are employing Bitcoin put options to protect their leveraged longs, anticipating significant price movements in either direction. 

The higher put-call ratio for January 12 options further reflects the market’s desire for protection against a potential negative decision.

The surge in open interest for put options expiring on January 12 indicates a growing need for protection in case of an unfavorable ruling. While Bitcoin’s rally has softened the impact of its 2022 decline, market expectations for ETF approval may already be priced in, posing potential risks for the market. 

BTC’s Price Resistance And Potential Dip 

Bitcoin has experienced a remarkable rally this year, with expectations for ETF approval driving its price up by more than 60% since mid-October. 

However, the Bloomberg report suggests that the surge in demand for the anticipated ETFs may already be factored into the token’s price, potentially exposing the market to a “sell the news” scenario in the second week of January. 

Furthermore, QCP Capital, a Singapore-based crypto asset trading firm, predicts topside resistance for Bitcoin in the range of $45,000 to $48,500 and a possible retracement to $36,000 levels before the uptrend resumes.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $43,400, experiencing a 1% decline over the past 24 hours. Over the past 14 days, the cryptocurrency has shown a sideways price movement with a slight decrease of 0.4%. 

Given Bitcoin’s well-known volatility, it remains uncertain how the market will react as the looming decision and potential catalysts draw near, and how these factors will impact its price dynamics.

However, the upcoming decision is not the sole catalyst that can potentially drive Bitcoin’s price in 2024. The cryptocurrency is also anticipated to experience a significant catalyst in April 2024, known as the halving event. 

This event has historically resulted in an upward surge in Bitcoin’s price, and it is predicted to propel the cryptocurrency beyond its previous all-time high (ATH) of $69,000 throughout the upcoming year.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

BNB, the native token of the Binance Exchange, has grown to become one of the largest cryptocurrencies in the world. Its current price of $260 puts its market cap above $39 billion, making it the fourth-largest asset in the market. However, despite the notoriety that the cryptocurrency has gained during this time, one crypto analyst still expects a massive price crash, one that could shake the entire crypto market to its very core.

BNB Long-Term Distribution Points To Crash

In the initial analysis that was posted to the TradingView website on Tuesday, December 19, crypto analyst Alan Santana pointed out that the BNB token had been in what “can be considered a long-term distribution phase.” He identifies this distribution phase on the chart shared which looks to have begun after the altcoin hit its $670 all-time high price in 2021.

While this is pointed out to be bearish, the levels at which Santana believes this bearish pressure could take the price back to 2018 lows. In addition to this, the analyst explains that the BNB price is still trading below its 200-day Moving Average (MA). This, in itself, is very bearish for the asset’s price, but cannot send it 99% below its current price. However, he explains that this metric coupled with bad news about the exchange could be devastating.

It is no surprise that the Binance Exchange has endured its fair share of problems when it comes to dealing with regulators. The exchange’s stablecoin which was issued by Paxos halted minting following instructions from regulators. Later, CEO Changpeng Zhao stepped down after the exchange and the founder agreed to pay $4 billion in fines to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The crypto analyst stated that the chart points lower in such a case but pinpointing a particular endpoint is impossible. “It is impossible to say exactly if the final target will be $11, $6, $2 or $0.10, it is very hard to predict an exact target but, the chart is pointing lower,” Santana said.

Waiting For The Best Timing

Coupled with the indicators that the analyst has pointed out, he made follow-up posts to add other factors that could trigger a 99% crash in the BNB price. Pointing to the change in management that happened around a month ago, Santana explains that the next move by the exchange would be called “restructuring.”

He stated:

The company will undergo some “restructuring”, changes and improvements in the corporate network and thus everything most be frozen… Don’t worry though, the funds are SAFU.

However, Santana explains that this will not just happen and that they would wait for the best time to actually carry out this move. According to the analyst, a drawdown from the current rally would be the best time for them.

“So they would let the market correction play out after the SECs announcement late December or early January 2024. Once the market is about to bottom or hits bottom, then the ‘restructuring’ can start,” Santana said. “This would freeze billions of customers funds and allow time for the institutions, the big players, the Spot ETFs to buy Bitcoin low.”

Despite the grim prediction that could crumble the crypto market if it happened, the crypto analyst believes that this is positive in the long term. “Life will continue to evolve, nature will pick who leaves and who stays, and time will decide who was right and who is wrong,” Santana concluded.

There has been a notable spike in the number of Polkadot transactions in recent days. The surge also coincides with DOT prices racing to new 2023 highs when writing on December 22.

Taking to X, asynchronous rob noted that Polkadot is currently processing around 250,000 transactions per hour or 400-450 per block. Polkadot is a modern blockchain that aims to drive blockchain interoperability.

Based on its design, relying on a Relay Chain and numerous Parachains, the network can process transactions cheaply, considering its high capacity.

Polkadot Transactions Swelling: Blame Dota and Inscriptions

The rapid expansion of transactions on Polkadot can be attributed to the recent launch of inscriptions, a new type of cross-chain asset developed by the Dota platform. Uniquely, Dota’s inscriptions aim to simplify the process of deploying and minting assets on Polkadot’s parachains. 

Though parachains operate independently as “chains” that rely on the Relay Chain for security, this design will eliminate the need for Cross-Chain Message Forma (XCM), which is needed for Polkadot parachains to communicate. 

Usually, the XCM requires complex coding and can be time-consuming. Therefore, the simplicity of DOT-20 inscriptions by Dota directly explains why there is a surge in the number of transactions.

According to Dota on X, inscriptions on Polkadot account for 98% of the recent transaction volume.

Though there has been a change in the number of transactions processed, transaction fees on Polkadot remain low. At the same time, the network hasn’t “skipped a bit,” with capacity being around 10%. 

By how Polkadot is designed, network fees will increase only once 25% of the total network capacity is changed. To reach this level, each block being confirmed on Polkadot must pack at least 1,250 transactions. 

This will require even more inscriptions to be created via Dota, meaning despite the observed spike, Polkadot is technically underutilized from a bandwidth perspective.

Will DOT Continue Rising In 2024?

While the deluge of transactions also coincides with rising DOT prices, currently at 2023 highs, there have been concerns about inscriptions causing network congestion in a network like Bitcoin facing scaling challenges.

Critics maintain that inscriptions, though defended by some, serve nothing more than spamming the network and discouraging use due to accompanying increases in transaction fees. 

For now, it remains to be seen if inscriptions will be sustainable, helping onboard more users. So far, Polkadot, as mentioned, can handle the uptick in transactions.

Even so, if there is a 3X rise in transactions exceeding the 1,250 transactions per block threshold, the demand for DOT will rise. Subsequently, DOT will likely trend higher towards $10 and other critical resistance levels.

Wyckoff Analysis (WA) aims to understand why prices of stocks and other market items move due to supply and demand dynamics. It typically is applied to any freely traded market where larger or institutional traders operate (commodities, bonds, currencies, etc.). In this article we will apply WA to the cryptocurrency Cosmos ($ATOM) to make a forecast for approximate future events.

Link to the raw image: https://www.tradingview.com/x/r8asKWOI

Cosmos $ATOM is currently in Phase D of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1. Note the volume spike near where I placed the SC and Spring. In Wyckoff Analysis these typically must align even if the overall form isn’t perfect. The only slight anomaly is that the ST dips sharply below the SC breaking the ICE (not labeled). There are Advanced Schematics that you can find online that accommodate many of these anomalous formations.

Phase D is where demand greatly overcomes supply leading the rallies on higher (or noticeably increasing) volume. When an LPS occurs that is typically a favorable (even optimal) place for a long position. It recently finished a Reaccumulation, to which it’s rallying sharply. Below are the typical schematics for both Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1 and a Reaccumulation for reference.

Cosmos Price Targets

The basic target (per the schematic) is the top of the trading range. In this case it’s at $18, but $15 is a preliminary target it must concretely clear first. Doing some more work using the Horizontal Count method with PnF charts yields different results. My settings are currently a $0.25 box size and a three box reversal on a High-Low lookback.

When using the Horizontal Count method Extended Congestions need to be accounted for differently. The main thing is finding the relevant column in and out to create the Congestion Box. In our case that’s from 13 to 20 December 2023 spanning 7 bars. Since this is a Reaccumulation “breakout” we will need to add the value from the formula the Horizontal Count uses.

7 x $0.25 x 3 = $5.25

The relevant low to add this to is $10.25 so the PnF target is $15.5.

Glossary

All quotes are from the first link in Supplemental Reading.

Preliminary Support (PS) – “where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a prolonged down-move”

Selling Climax (SC) – “the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually climaxes and heavy or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests at or near a bottom”

Automatic Rally (AR) – “occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly diminished”

Secondary Test (ST) – when “price revisits the area of the SC to test the supply/demand balance at these levels”

Spring – “allow the stock’s dominant players to make a definitive test of available supply before a markup campaign unfolds”

Test – where larger traders “test the market for supply throughout a TR”

Sign of Strength (SoS) – “a price advance on increasing spread and relatively higher volume”

Last Point of Support (LPS) – “a pullback to support that was formerly resistance, on diminished spread and volume”

Back Up (BU) – “a common structural element preceding a more substantial price mark-up, and can take on a variety of forms, including a simple pullback or a new TR at a higher level”

Supplemental Reading

“The Wyckoff Method: A Tutorial” by Bogomazov & Lipsett

“Reaccumulation Review” by Bruce Fraser (2018)

“Jumping the Creek: A Review” by Bruce Fraser (2018)

“Distribution Review” by Bruce Fraser (2018)

“Introduction to Point & Figure Charts” from StockCharts

“P&F Price Objectives: Horizontal Counts” from StockCharts

“The Wyckoff Methodology in Depth” by Rubén Villahermosa (2019)

“Wyckoff 2.0: Structures, Volume Profile and Order Flow” by Rubén Villahermosa (2021)