Ethereum price is eyeing an upside break above the $2,440 resistance. ETH could rally like Bitcoin if there is a close above the $2,500 level.

Ethereum is moving higher from the $2,250 support level.
The price is trading above $2,350 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $2,300 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
The pair could accelerate higher if there is a clear move above $2,400 and $2,440.

Ethereum Price Eyes Key Upside Break

Ethereum price found support near the $2,250 level and recently started a fresh increase. ETH managed to recover after Bitcoin pumped above the $44,400 resistance zone.

The price cleared the $2,300 and $2,320 resistance levels. There was also a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $2,300 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. The pair climbed above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,445 swing high to the $2,258 low.

Bitcoin is now trading above $2,350 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $2,400 level. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,445 swing high to the $2,258 low.

Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

The first major resistance is now near $2,445. A close above the $2,445 resistance could send the price toward $2,500. The next key resistance is near $2,550. If the bulls remain in action and push ETH above $2,550, there could be a drift toward $2,620. The next resistance sits at $2,650, above which Ethereum might rally and test the $2,800 zone.

Another Decline in ETH?

If Ethereum fails to clear the $2,400 resistance, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $2,350 level.

The first key support could be the $2,320 zone. A downside break and a close below $2,320 might start another major decline. In the stated case, Ether could test the $2,250 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $2,120 level.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $2,320

Major Resistance Level – $2,400

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An analyst has explained that Ethereum could be set to see a further rally based on on-chain data. Here’s the level ETH may end up surpassing.

Ethereum Has No Significant On-Chain Resistance Ahead

In a new post on X, analyst Ali has discussed how Ethereum’s support and resistance levels are looking like based on on-chain data. In on-chain analysis, the potential for any level to provide any notable amount of support/resistance to the price depends on the number of investors who acquired their coins.

Here is a chart that shows the amount of ETH that was bought at some of the price ranges that the asset has visited before:

The graph shows that the $2,235 to $2,302 range carries the cost basis of a significant number of coins. More specifically, 1.84 million addresses acquired more than 6 million ETH inside this range.

Currently, the Ethereum price is trading just above this range, implying that all these investors are in the green. If the Ethereum spot price retraces into this range, these holders could show some reaction, as their profit-loss boundary would be retested.

Since these holders would have been in profits just before the retest, they might want to buy more, as they may believe that this same price range that was profitable earlier might turn out to be a worthy buy again.

Since the range is thick with investors, this buying effect that may arise on a retest could end up providing support to the price. If the support fails, the price might be between $1,958 and $2,029.

This range is much more robust, hosting a cost basis of over 37 million ETH. Ali notes that this support could potentially help cushion any corrections that may take place.

Now, Ethereum has strong support below, and as is apparent in the chart, there is no major demand wall above it simultaneously. Investors in loss (those with a cost basis higher than the current spot price) may be desperate to escape the market, so the price rising to their break-even can be an enticing exit opportunity.

If many holders are sitting at a loss, their demand zone could provide significant resistance to the price because of such selling. ETH has no such obstacles in the nearby price ranges so that the coin could rally further. “The path ahead of ETH is clear, with no significant supply barriers in sight, suggesting a potential rise to $2,700 or beyond,” explains the analyst.

The market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock has also shared a chart that could provide further evidence for a bullish case of Ethereum.

As is visible in the above graph, the percentage of Ethereum investors who can be classified as “HODLers” (1 year+ holding time) has shot up recently. “This year, the percent of long-term ETH holders surpassed that of Bitcoin for the second time ever!” notes IntoTheBlock.

ETH Price

Ethereum is currently at the $2,316 mark, not too far above the support zone mentioned earlier.

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As the crypto market marches into 2024, various industry experts and financial analysts have recently cast their respective Bitcoin (BTC) predictions for the year.

Among the voices offering insights, Mark Mobius of Mobius Capital Partners LLP stands out for his historically accurate predictions.

Having correctly forecasted Bitcoin’s fall to $20,000, Mobius now envisions a climb to $60,000 by the year’s end. This optimism is further mirrored by Youwei Yang, chief economist at crypto mining firm Bit Mining, who projects a high of $75,000 for Bitcoin in 2024.

Yang’s predictions hinge on a combination of the upcoming Bitcoin “halving” event, which is expected to constrain supply, and the potential inflow of institutional investments following a spot ETF approval in the US.

The Catalysts Behind The Predictions

The notion of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval in the US is a central theme in these bullish forecasts. The expectation of such an event has stirred excitement within the crypto community, drawing parallels to similar financial instruments and their impact on associated markets.

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, believes that a spot ETF approval in the US would mark a “significant change” in the digital asset landscape, potentially integrating cryptocurrencies more closely with traditional financial markets. As for the prediction, Butterfill noted:

Estimations suggest that a 20% investment increase from current assets under management (around US$3 billion) could potentially propel Bitcoin prices to US$80,000.

Butterfill additionally pointed out that potential interest rate reductions by central banks might significantly contribute to an increase in Bitcoin’s value.

2024 Bitcoin Predictions above $100,000

Raising the prediction bar, Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of the cryptocurrency exchange Nexo and a well-known Bitcoin advocate, maintains his prediction that Bitcoin could soar to $100,000 in 2024. Despite initially projecting this target for 2022, Bitcoin’s price took a downturn instead of hitting the anticipated high.

Reaffirming his stance, Trenchev attributes his renewed $100,000 forecast for 2024 to the upcoming Bitcoin halving and the possible green light for several spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US. Trenchev anticipates that these two factors will act as a dual catalyst, driving Bitcoin’s value to the $100,000 mark, with prospects of even higher peaks in 2025.

Trenchev, however, cautions about the volatile journey towards this target, predicting fluctuations and significant dips along the way.

In addition to Trenchev’s projections, Standard Chartered and University of Sussex finance professor Carol Alexander also envisions Bitcoin potentially hitting $100,000 in 2024. Alexander suggests this is contingent on the capacity of market maker algorithms from major financial institutions like Blackrock and Fidelity to moderate market volatility.

Echoing these sentiments, Matrixport, a firm specializing in crypto financial services, projects that Bitcoin will hit $125,000 by the end of the year. The firm noted:

Based on our inflation model, the macro environment is expected to remain a robust tailwind for crypto. Another decline in inflation is anticipated, prompting the Federal Reserve to likely initiate interest rate cuts. Combined with geopolitical crosscurrents, this healthy dose of monetary support should push Bitcoin to new highs in 2024.

Venture capital firm CoinFund offers one of the most ambitious predictions, with managing partner Seth Ginns forecasting Bitcoin’s value to range between $250,000 and $500,000 in 2024.

Ginns attributes this potential surge to factors like the declining correlation with the dollar and real yields, the anticipated impact of newly launched BTC spot ETFs in the US, and the excitement over possible ETH spot ETFs.

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

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An analyst has pointed out two demand zones that could be important for Bitcoin. Here’s what could be next for BTC based on these supply walls.

Bitcoin On-Chain Support And Resistance Levels Could Provide Hints For What’s Next

As explained by analyst Ali in a new post on X, Bitcoin has recently been floating between two major supply walls of the asset. “Supply wall” refers to the amount of Bitcoin that addresses acquired in any given price range.

The chart below shows what the different supply walls look like for BTC for the ranges around the current spot price of the cryptocurrency.

In the above graph, the size of the dot represents the number of coins the investors bought inside the corresponding range. It would appear that the $41,200 to $42,400 and $42,400 to $43,700 ranges are notably heavy with supply.

To be more particular, the former range saw 1.92 million addresses buy a total of 723,490 BTC, while the latter witnessed an accumulation of 706,400 BTC from 1.67 million holders.

For any investor, their acquisition price or cost basis is an important level, as when the asset’s price retests, their profit-loss situation can potentially change. As such, the holders are more likely to show some reaction when such a retest takes place.

Naturally, just a few investors displaying a reaction won’t affect the market, but if many addresses share their cost basis inside a narrow range, the reaction from a retest could end up being sizeable.

Because of this reason, major supply walls (like the two mentioned just earlier) can end up being important retests for Bitcoin. Generally, the asset is more likely to feel support when this retest happens from above, while the coin could feel some resistance when it’s from below.

These effects seem to follow because of how investor psychology tends to work; an investor who was in profit before the retest might want to take a further gamble, believing the same price range to be profitable again. Such buying is the source of the support.

Similarly, loss holders would be tempted to sell when the price reaches their break-even point, as they may not want to risk holding further as the coin could go back down, pulling them underwater again.

Bitcoin has been trading between two major supply walls during its recent consolidation. “A sustained close beyond these bounds will help gauge BTC’s trend,” notes Ali.

The chart shows that the next large resistance ahead is between $46,300 to $47,600, while $38,600 to $39,900 carries the next major support below. “A breakout above resistance may propel BTC towards $47,600, while a dip below support might lead to a correction down to $38,600,” explains the analyst.

BTC Price

Bitcoin is trading around the $42,700 mark as it continues its recent sideways movement.

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Tellor (TRB) went on a rollercoaster in the past 24 hours, with its price experiencing a surge and a drop that is comparable to that of price manipulation. As a result, the crypto surged to over $600 in the late hours of 2023 before crashing down to $137. 

According to data from CoinGlass, TRB witnessed more liquidated positions than any other crypto within this time period, with whales exiting both long and short positions amidst rumors of manipulation.

Wow $TRB pic.twitter.com/TgYqWNtC0u

— Tony “The Bull” (@tonythebullBTC) December 31, 2023

TRB Price Action And Liquidation

TRB has been on a steady price increase since the beginning of the month. This increase was particularly exacerbated on December 31, pushing the crypto to a new all-time high of $602, and a 1000% increase in trading volume, according to Coinmarketcap data. However, this price surge failed to last more than a few hours, as TRB plummeted to $139.

This price volatility saw TRB lead the market in liquidations on both long and short positions. According to CoinGlass, the crypto market saw a total of $227 million liquidated positions in the past 24 hours, with TRB leading with $73.93 million, quite unusual for such a low market cap altcoin. ETH and BTC followed with $24.7 million and $22.74 million worth of liquidated positions. 

While the reason for the astounding price spike is unclear at the moment, the subsequent crash has been attributed to price manipulation from the Tellor team. According to a post on X (formerly Twitter) by Lookonchain, the Tellor team deposited 4,211 TRB worth approximately $2.4 million on Coinbase as the price skyrocketed. 

In the past 24 hours, $TRB soared to $600 and then plummeted to $137, causing $68M of assets to be liquidated, making it the most liquidated token.

We noticed that the #Tellor team deposited 4,211 $TRB($2.4M) after the price of $TRB skyrocketed.

Address:https://t.co/efHPXCiMiG pic.twitter.com/IBty2Wf2gI

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) January 1, 2024

Price manipulation is certainly not a new phenomenon in the crypto industry, especially among low market-cap altcoins. The transfer into Coinbase has got investors wondering about a selloff from the team, as TRB crashed in the hours after. Nonetheless, this remains a speculation at this point.

TRB is the utility token for Tellor, a decentralized oracle network that provides real-world data to blockchain-based smart contracts. TRB mostly traded below $15 for the majority of the year. Things started to get hot in September as the cryptocurrency started to exhibit a very high level of volatility at this point. TRB kickstarted a sustained price surge in the middle of September that saw it reach $140 on November 9. After reaching this point, it went through a price dip throughout the month to the end of November at around $77.  

December saw a change in momentum, with price action indicating a steady surge since the beginning of the month. At the time of writing, TRB is trading at $191, still up by 143% in a 30-day timeframe.

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Another year, another Crypto Holiday special from our team at NewsBTC. In the coming week, we’ll be unpacking 2023, its downs and ups, to reveal what the next months could bring for crypto and DeFi investors.

Like last year, we paid homage to Charles Dicke’s classic “A Christmas Carol” and gathered a group of experts to discuss the crypto market’s past, present, and future. In that way, our readers might discover clues that will allow them to transverse 2024 and its potential trends.

Crypto Holiday With Blofin: A Deep Dive Into 2024

We wrapped up this Holiday Special with crypto educational and investment firm Blofin. In our 2022 interview, Blofin spoke about the fallout created by FTX, Three Arrows Capital (3AC) collapse, and Terra (LUNA). At the same time, the firm predicted a return from the ashes for Bitcoin and the crypto market. The resurrection seems well underway, with Bitcoin surpassing the $40,000 mark. This is what they told us:

Q: In light of the prolonged bearish trends observed in 2022 and 2023, how do these periods compare to previous downturns in severity and impact? With Bitcoin now crossing the $40,000 threshold, does this signify a conclusive end to the bear market, or are there potential market twists investors should brace for?

Blofin:

Compared to previous crypto recessions, the 2022-2023 bear market appears milder. Unlike previous cycles, in the last bull market, the widespread use of stablecoins and the entry of massive traditional institutions brought more than $100 billion in cash liquidity to the crypto market, and most of the cash liquidity did not leave the crypto market due to a series of events in 2022.

Even in Mar 2023, when investors’ macro expectations were the most pessimistic, and in 2023Q3, when liquidity bottomed out, the crypto market still had no less than $120 billion in cash liquidity in the form of stablecoins, which provides sufficient support and risk resistance for BTC, ETH and altcoins.

Similarly, due to abundant cash liquidity, in the bear market of 2022-2023, we did not experience a “liquidity dryness” situation similar to March 2020 and May 2021. In 2023, with the gradual recovery of the crypto market, liquidity risks were significantly reduced compared to 2022.

The only troubling thing is that in the summer and autumn of 2023, risk-free returns of more than 5% have caused investors to focus more on the money market and brought about the lowest volatility in the crypto market since 2019.

However, low volatility does not indicate a recession. The performance of the crypto market in the fourth 2023Q4 proves that more investors are actually holding on to the sidelines. They are not leaving the crypto market but are waiting for the right time to enter.

Currently, the total market cap of the crypto market has recovered to more than 55% of its previous peak. It can be considered that the crypto market has emerged from the bear market cycle, but the current stage should be called a “technical bull market” rather than a “real bull market.”

Again, let’s start our explanation from a cash liquidity perspective. Although the price of BTC has reached $44k once, the size of cash liquidity in the entire crypto market has only rebounded slightly, reaching around $125b. $125b in cash supports over $1.6T in total crypto market cap, implying an overall leverage ratio of over 12x.

Additionally, many tokens have seen significant increases in their annualized funding rates, even exceeding 70%. High overall leverage and high funding rates mean that speculative sentiment has as much impact on the crypto market as improving fundamentals. However, the higher the leverage ratio, the lower the investors’ risk tolerance, and the high financing costs are difficult to sustain in the long term. Any bad news could trigger deleveraging and cause massive liquidations.

Furthermore, real improvements in liquidity are yet to come. The current federal funds rate remains at 5.5%. In the interest rate market, traders expect the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve to occur no earlier than March and the European Central Bank and Bank of England to cut interest rates for the first time no earlier than May. At the same time, central bank officials from various countries have repeatedly emphasized that interest rate cuts “depend on the data” and “will not happen soon.”

Therefore, when liquidity levels have not really improved, the recovery and rebound of the crypto market are gratifying, but the “leverage-based” recovery is significantly related to investors’ financing costs and risk tolerance, and the potential callback risk is relatively high. In fact, in the options market, investors have begun to accumulate put options after experiencing a rise in December to deal with the risk of any possible pullback after the start of 2024.

Q: Right now, we are seeing Bitcoin reach new highs. Do you think we are in the early days of a full bull run? What has changed in the market that enabled the current price action; is it the Bitcoin spot ETF or the US Fed hinting at a loser policy or the upcoming Halving? What is the big narrative that will go on in 2024?

Blofin:

As stated above, we are still some way away from the early stages of a full-blown bull market. “Technical bull market” better describes the current market status. This round of technical bull market started with improved expectations: the spot Bitcoin ETF narrative triggered investors’ expectations for the return of funds to the crypto market, while the peak of the federal funds rate and expectations for an interest rate cut next year reflected the improvement at the macro environment level.

In addition, some funds from traditional markets have tried to be the “early birds” and make early arrangements in the crypto market. These are all important reasons why BTC’s price is back above $40k.

However, we believe that changes in the macro environment are the most important influencing elements among the above factors. The arrival of expectations of interest rate cuts has allowed investors to see the dawn of a return to the bull market in risk assets. It is not hard to find that in November and December, not only Bitcoin experienced a sharp rise, but Nasdaq, the Dow Jones Index, and gold all hit all-time highs. This pattern typically occurs at or near the end of each economic cycle.

The beginning and end of a cycle can significantly impact asset pricing. At the beginning of a cycle, investors typically convert their risky assets into cash or treasury bonds. When the cycle ends, investors will take cash liquidity back to the market and buy risk-free assets without distinction. Risk assets typically experience a “widespread and significant” rise at this time. The above situation is what we have experienced in 2023Q4.

As for the Bitcoin halving, we prefer that the positive effects it brings result from an improvement in the macro environment rather than the result of the “halving.” Bitcoin had not become a mainstream asset with institutional acceptance when the first and second halvings occurred. However, after 2021, as the market microstructure changes, institutions have gained sufficient influence over Bitcoin, and each halving coincides with the economic cycle to a higher degree.

In 2024, we will witness the end of the tightening cycle and the beginning of a new easing cycle. But compared with every previous cycle change, this cycle change may be relatively stable. Although the period of high inflation is over, inflation is still “one step away” from returning to the target range.

Therefore, all major central banks will avoid releasing liquidity too quickly and be wary of the economy overheating again. For the crypto market, a solid liquidity release will lead to a mild bull run. Perhaps it is difficult for us to have the opportunity to see a bull market similar to that in 2021, but the new bull market will last relatively longer. More new chances will also emerge with the participation of more new investors and the emergence of new narratives.

Q: Last year, we spoke about the most resilient sectors during the Crypto Winter. Which sectors and coins will likely benefit from a new Bull Run? We are seeing the Solana ecosystem bloom along with the NFT market; what trends could benefit in the coming months?

Blofin:

What is certain is that exchanges (whether CEX or DEX) are the first beneficiaries when the bull market returns. As the trading volume and user activities begin to rebound again, it can be expected that their income (including the exchange’s fee income, token listing income, etc.) will increase significantly, and the performance of the exchange tokens may also benefit from this.

At the same time, infrastructure related to transactions and capital circulation will also benefit from the new bull market, such as public chains and Layer-2. When liquidity returns to the crypto market, crypto infrastructure is an indispensable part: liquidity must first enter the public chain before it can be transferred to various projects and underlying tokens.

In the last bull market, the congestion and high gas cost of the Ethereum network were criticized by many users, which became an opportunity for the emergence and development of Layer-2 and also promoted the development and growth of many non-Ethereum public chains, while Solana and Avalanche are some of the biggest beneficiaries.

Therefore, with the arrival of a new bull market, more usage scenarios and possibilities for Layer 2 and non-Ethereum public chains will be discovered. Ethereum will also naturally not be far behind; we may witness a new boom in public chain ecosystems and tokens in 2024.

In addition, as an exploration of the latest applications of BTC, the development of BRC-20 cannot be ignored. As a new token issuance standard based on the BTC network that emerged in 2023, BRC-20 allows users to deploy standardized contracts or mint NFTs based on the BTC network, providing new narratives and use cases for the oldest and most mature public chain.

With the return of liquidity, the exploration and development of BRC-20-related applications may gradually begin, and together with other public chain ecosystems, they will make great progress in the new “moderate but long-term” bull market.

Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview

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In a recent YouTube video, Michaël van de Poppe, a highly respected figure in the crypto analysis sphere, disclosed his top 5 altcoin picks for 2024. Van de Poppe, known as founder of Eight Global, emphasized the importance of a balanced approach over speculative bets on lesser-known altcoins. He stated, “I don’t believe in getting into very small altcoins to maximize the risk. Compounding your returns with a proper strategy benefits in the long run.”

Ethereum (ETH) – The Primary Crypto Choice

Van de Poppe’s foremost recommendation is Ethereum. The crypto analyst rationalizes this choice by pointing out the crowded space Bitcoin currently occupies, suggesting a shift of focus to altcoins. He articulated, “Bitcoin has been seeing a lot of upside already [caused by the spot ETF hype] … it’s getting a little bit overcrowded and I think the upside is relatively capped.”

He added that Ethereum is currently bottoming out against Bitcoin. “I think that Ethereum is undervalued at this point because there is a deflationary system involved.” His belief in Ethereum stems from its fundamental growth and the deflationary aspect of its economic model.

With regards to the 3-day ETH/USDT chart, he commented: “Ethereum holds a crucial level at $2,150 and is ready to continue the upwards path. Likely, we’ve bottomed on the ETH/BTC pair and have peaked on the Bitcoin dominance.”

Scalability Solutions – Arbitrum and Optimism

Delving deeper into the Ethereum ecosystem, van de Poppe highlighted the importance of scalability solutions. He sees Arbitrum as an attractive crypto investment, especially given its current stage and potential for growth.

“Arbitrum has not much price action yet, which is tricky, but can give you a very interesting investment thesis,” he explained, underscoring its upward trend against Bitcoin. “Retest at $0.98 did work, continuation towards $1.35 as well and even further. Some beautiful S/R flips, I think $1.40-1.45 should hold and we can continue to $2,” he stated.

Optimism is his second scalability solution choice, albeit with a cautionary note on its recent substantial run. Van de Poppe recommends a dollar-cost averaging strategy for Optimism, noting “the hype is already substantial here… buying a portion on every 10 cents that’s dropping to make sure that you get a nice average entry.”

Chainlink (LINK) – The Dark Horse

Chainlink (LINK) emerged as his fourth pick. Van de Poppe sees its prolonged bear market and early peak against Bitcoin in 2020 as indicators of significant potential, especially in conjunction with DeFi, RWA, and NFTs. “Chainlink… has been going into the longest bear market that it existed… cycles will happen, and that’s why the opportunity costs are big,” the crypto analyst remarked.

“Chainlink shows that the markets are looking for a higher low on the BTC pairs. Bitcoin pairs show strength in altcoins and are a key indicator in bull markets. As long as LINK stays above 0.000253 BTC, it’s fine and we can start targeting 0.006 BTC,” van de Poppe noted.

SUI – The New Competitor

The final altcoin in van de Poppe’s selection is SUI, a newer project he compares to successful platforms like Phantom, Avalanche, and Matic. He advises on investing in Ethereum competitors, asserting, “The final one that I am going to explain here is SUI, which is currently also starting to trend upwards. I’m not sure what it is going to hold though, but outside of the Ethereum ecosystem and DeFi corner.”

He added, “I want to be investing into competitors of Ethereum and you can choose SUI, DOT, ATOM, all those projects. I would like to choose something that’s relatively new, SUI.”

Looking at the 1-day chart of SUI/BTC, the crypto analyst stated: “The ecosystems are heating up, and SUI is waking up alongside ARB and OP. Looking for the BTC pair here, which is ready to do a beautiful retest at the 0.00001710 area. If that holds, an uptrend likely starts to 0.00003000 BTC.”

Crypto Portfolio Distribution And Strategy

Van de Poppe suggests a balanced portfolio distribution, advocating for a larger allocation to more established coins: 40% in Ethereum, 20% in Chainlink, and smaller portions in Arbitrum and Optimism (each 15%) as well as SUI (10%). He also emphasized the need for a dynamic approach to trading and profit-taking, saying, “Trading is a lot about being flexible and having a flexible mindset.”

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Crypto analyst Ali Martinez recently provoked some thoughts in the crypto community as he highlighted a historical pattern that provides insight into where the Bitcoin price may be headed. This comes as debate continues whether or not a potential approval of the pending Spot Bitcoin ETF applications is a ‘sell-the-news’ event. 

Is History Set To Repeat Itself?

In a post on his X (formerly Twitter) platform, Martinez noted that Bitcoin had a bearish January the last two times it saw a strong performance in the last four months of the preceding year. If history were to repeat itself, Bitcoin’s price could decline this month, considering that it ended the last four months in 2023 on a high. 

The crypto analyst suggested that those bearish Januarys were likely a result of profit-taking, something which he warned could happen again based on history. Market intelligence platform Santiment recently reported that most Bitcoin holders are in profit. Therefore, the projection of a profit-taking trend in January is not far-fetched. 

This trend already seems to have begun in December, as NewsBTC reported that Bitcoin whales sold around 50,000 BTC worth $2.2 billion. While a bearish January is expected based on history, there is also the argument that those last two years didn’t have any event as bullish as the Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which could be approved as early as this week. 

This argument also leads to another discussion on whether approval of these funds by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will cause Bitcoin’s price to pump or dump. So far, crypto analysts have been divided on what is likely to happen. Based on certain predictions, Bitcoin could either rise to as high as $69,000 or crash to as low as $35,000. 

Initial Impact Of Spot Bitcoin ETFs Are Overestimated

VanEck’s advisor, Gabor Gurbacs, recently opined that the short-term expectations over a Spot Bitcoin ETF are overestimated. Analysts like Galaxy Digital predict that these funds could see inflows of up to a billion in their first month of launching. However, Gurbacs begs to differ as he predicts that only a few $100 million would flow into these funds in the short term. 

The amount of inflows that could move into these funds initially is significant, considering the impact it could also have on Bitcoin’s price. Trading firm QCP Capital had predicted that Bitcoin could revisit its all-time high of $69,000 if these Spot Bitcoin ETFs see enough capital in their first few weeks of trading. 

Meanwhile, in the long term, Gurbacs is bullish on the impact these ETFs will have. He predicts that Bitcoin could experience a similar growth to the one Gold enjoyed upon the launch of Gold ETFs. Gold’s market cap has grown exponentially since the first Gold ETF launched in 2004. Bitcoin’s market cap could also run into trillions with the help of these Spot Bitcoin ETFs.

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Chad Steingraber, a professional game designer and a prominent figure in the XRP community, recently updated his theory, originally posted in August 2022, about the potential future price of XRP. Dubbed “The Chad Steingraber Theory,” it presents an intricate roadmap predicting XRP’s journey towards a staggering $20,000 mark.

Central to Steingraber’s argument is the principle of asset scarcity in relation to supply and demand. He explains how scarcity, much like in an auction where numerous bidders vie for a limited asset, can escalate the asset’s value.

“Asset Scarcity, part of supply and demand, is also an issue, like an auction bid where many people are bidding on a limited set of assets that only some of them may own. This can drive up value, it ONLY stops when no one else is willing to pay a higher price,” he notes, underlining how this scarcity could be a driving force for XRP’s valuation.

Steingraber also delves into the realm of market appreciation and ‘phantom money’. He elucidates how the current price of an asset can reflect its anticipated future value, a concept akin to selling the idea of a future desirable house on a valuable plot of land at today’s perceived value. He further introduces the notion of ‘Phantom Money’, indicating that market caps often mirror perceived, rather than actual, invested value.

“Today XRP market cap is $30 billion.. but wait, that doesn’t mean there is actually $30B of money that has been put into XRP. […] There’s far less as the market cap is just a reflection of the current value anyone is willing to pay. Phantom Money, remember?, Steingraber explained.

Drawing parallels with unique and limited assets like the Mona Lisa, Steingraber highlights the perception of value. He points out that value is often ascribed based on uniqueness and societal significance, stating, “The Mona Lisa is valuable because it’s the only one… That value is in our minds.” This analogy serves to emphasize the perceived value of the coin in the cryptocurrency market.

“The Chad Steingraber Theory” – The Road to a $20K #XRPA Thread from The Future (UPDATED)

It’s been a year and a half since I wrote this original thread and A LOT has happened, including some parts of this theory.

Grab a drink, grab a snack and let’s take a ride, shall we? https://t.co/TU7CLwwh1T

— Chad Steingraber (@ChadSteingraber) December 30, 2023

Banks Will Drive The XRP Price To $20,000

Central to Steingraber’s theory is the idea of banks holding XRP as a reserve asset, akin to gold. He explicitly states, “Banks holding XRP, that’s the Holy Grail,” emphasizing the potential shift in how financial institutions perceive XRP. This change would elevate the cryptocurrency’s status, positioning it not just as a transactional cryptocurrency but as a foundational asset in banking operations.

Steingraber envisions a future where banks will create private ledgers for internal operations, necessitating substantial XRP reserves. “Banks will create a Private Ledger and HOLD XRP as a reserve asset like how a central bank will hold Gold as a backing asset,” he explains. This approach to using XRP mirrors the traditional banking system’s reliance on gold, suggesting a paradigm shift in digital asset management.

The theory also highlights the crucial role of liquidity hubs, like Metaco, in this new banking ecosystem. Steingraber points out that these hubs would need to maintain large XRP balances to facilitate transactions between banks. “The LHs also hold a balance of XRP because they ARE the 3rd Party exchange that requires a transfer on the XRPL of the issued IOU Derivative into another IOU Derivative,” he notes, underlining the importance of XRP in this process.

A pivotal aspect of Steingraber’s theory is the ensuing scarcity of XRP in the public market as banks accumulate it. He predicts a significant shift in the public supply, stating, “The circulating public supply of XRP on crypto exchanges is far less than people realize… The banks, when ready, are coming for the public XRP supply and once they have it… IT’S GONE.” This anticipated scarcity is expected to trigger a FOMO among financial institutions, leading to a rapid depletion of XRP’s public availability.

Steingraber’s theory culminates in the projection of a massive increase in XRP’s price, driven by the combined effects of banks treating it as a reserve asset, the creation of private ledgers, the crucial role of liquidity hubs, and the resulting public supply scarcity. He posits a future where the value of the cryptocurrency could skyrocket due to these factors, potentially reaching up to $20,000.

At press time, XRP traded at $0.61406.

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Ethereum price is correcting gains below the $2,350 zone. ETH could attempt a fresh increase unless there is a close below the $2,200 support.

Ethereum is correcting gains and trading below the $2,350 level.
The price is trading below $2,320 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $2,300 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
The pair could start a fresh increase if there is a close above the $2,350 level.

Ethereum Price Eyes Fresh Increase

Ethereum price struggled to clear the $2,440 resistance zone and started a fresh decline. ETH declined below the $2,350 support zone to move into a short-term bearish zone, like Bitcoin.

There was a close below the $2,320 level. A low was formed near $2,258 and the price is now consolidating losses. Ethereum is now trading below $2,320 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $2,300 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD.

On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $2,300 level and the trend line. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,445 swing high to the $2,258 low.

Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

The first major resistance is now near $2,350 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,445 swing high to the $2,258 low. A close above the $2,350 resistance could send the price toward $2,400. The next key resistance is near $2,440. A clear move above the $2,440 zone could start another increase. The next resistance sits at $2,500, above which Ethereum might rally and test the $2,550 zone.

More Losses in ETH?

If Ethereum fails to clear the $2,300 resistance, it could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside is near the $2,250 level.

The first key support could be the $2,240 zone. A downside break and a close below $2,240 might start another major decline. In the stated case, Ether could test the $2,200 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $2,120 level.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is losing momentum in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $2,240

Major Resistance Level – $2,350

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