Blockchain

Recently, cryptocurrency analytics platform Lookonchain reported activities of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) whales amid the ongoing market downturn. These whales appear to have been capitalizing on the recent decline in the crypto prices to bolster their holdings.

According to Lookonchain, amid the market dip, a newly established wallet withdrew 700 BTC, valued at roughly $29.36 million, from the Binance exchange.

These BTCs were purchased at an average price of $41,948 each.It is worth noting that, according to the analyst, such a move during a market downturn demonstrates a bullish sentiment on the future of BTC.

It seems that a whale is buying $BTC!

In the recent market drop, a new wallet withdrew 700 $BTC($29.36M) from #Binance at an average price of $41,948.https://t.co/5kE1l0mJlo pic.twitter.com/Fj1thu4C6x

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) January 19, 2024

Ethereum Whales Joining The Fray

The narrative of strategic accumulation isn’t limited to Bitcoin. Lookonchain’s subsequent tweet highlighted similar activities in the Ethereum market.

A whale took advantage of the decreased Ethereum prices, buying 3,600 ETH, worth around $8.9 million. Lookonchain highlighted that this investor’s history of buying ETH at lower prices and selling at higher valuations has resulted in substantial profits, estimated at around $25.8 million.

After the price of $ETH dropped today, this smart whale bought 3,600 $ETH($8.9M) back at a lower price 5 hours ago.

This whale is very good at buying $ETH at low prices and selling $ETH at highs.

The profit is ~$25.8M currently!https://t.co/UzXbheftr1 pic.twitter.com/DannZzsQVk

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) January 19, 2024

These whale movements are worth noting, especially considering the increasing bearish sentiment in the cryptocurrency markets. Ethereum, for instance, has seen a 1.9% decline in the past 24 hours and a 7.8% drop over the past week.

The asset is currently trading at around $2,475. Bitcoin is experiencing a similar trend, with a nearly 3% decrease in the past 24 hours and a 10% fall over the past week, bringing its price to $40,819 at the time of writing.

This market downturn is also reflected in the asset’s trading volume. Bitcoin’s daily trading volume fell from over $40 billion last Friday to about $26 billion.

Bitcoin Market Analysis And Future Predictions

In light of these developments, renowned crypto analyst Jacob Canfield has cautioned that Bitcoin might face further corrections in the short term.

Canfield notes that the upcoming Bitcoin halving could play a crucial role in rebalancing the market dynamics, potentially tipping the scale towards demand over supply. However, his analysis of Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart indicates the formation of a trend that has historically been an indicator of negative short to mid-term price movements.

For Bitcoin, critical levels include $48,700, marked by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, weekly resistance, and a significant support level to watch at $38,700. Earlier this month, Bitcoin traded at the $48,700 zone before retracing.

Canfield warns that following a tap of the 61.8% level, Bitcoin often experiences an 18-22% sell-off, potentially bringing it back to the $38,700 support level.

#Bitcoin update – If you’ve been following me for a while, you’ll know my local top on $BTC was $48.7k (as per my playbook posts)

The question that everyone is asking now is ‘where do we go from here?’

The current narrative is that the ETF approval unlocked the GBTC investors… pic.twitter.com/MayIZp5vEY

— Jacob Canfield (@JacobCanfield) January 18, 2024

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency in the market, has experienced a sharp drop below the $41,000 mark as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for Bitcoin went live on January 12. 

The subsequent profit-taking, selling pressure, and outflows from Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) played a significant role in the downward trend.

Grayscale’s Bitcoin Transfers To Coinbase Intensify

On Tuesday, NewsBTC reported that six days ago, Grayscale initiated the first batch of BTC outflows from their holdings to a Coinbase, totaling 4,000 BTC (approximately $183 million) over six days. 

However, the asset manager resumed outflows from the Trust to the exchange on Tuesday, sending an additional 11,700 BTC (equivalent to $491.4 million) to Coinbase. 

Furthermore, on Friday, data from Arkham Intelligence revealed that 12,865 BTC ($529 million) were transferred from the Grayscale Trust address to Coinbase Prime. 

In total, the Grayscale Trust address has transferred 54,343 BTC ($2.313 billion) to Coinbase Prime during the opening hours of the US stock market over five consecutive trading days since January 12, which has undoubtedly contributed to the downtrend in Bitcoin’s price.

Selling Frenzy Among BTC Miners

In addition to Grayscale’s selling spree, there has been increased selling activity by Bitcoin miners ahead of the upcoming Bitcoin halving. 

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlights that on-chain data from CryptoQuant indicates a substantial increase in selling activity by BTC miners. In the past 24 hours, miners offloaded nearly 10,600 BTC, with a value of approximately $455.8 million.

The persistent selling pressure has caused BTC to trade at $40,900, reflecting a slight 0.2% decrease over the past 24 hours. 

The downtrend has been evident across various time frames, with declines of 5%, 6%, and 7% over the seven, fourteen, and thirty-day periods, respectively. However, despite these recent setbacks, Bitcoin remains remarkably positive year-to-date, with an impressive 98% gain.

Overall, the combined impact of Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust ETF outflows and increased selling activity by miners has intensified the downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price, breaching the critical support level of $41,000. 

The focus now turns to how Bitcoin bulls will defend the crucial $40,000 support level, which stands as the last line of defense before a potential dip toward the $37,700 mark.

Should this support level fail to hold, the Bitcoin market could witness further price declines, potentially pushing the price down to the $35,800 mark. However, with the Bitcoin halving scheduled for April, bullish investors are hopeful that this event will catalyze a significant bull run.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

The initial distribution of cryptocurrencies such as XRP has always been a hot topic for investors in the crypto community. A lot of times, the discussions stem from the fact that investors believe there was some foul play at Genesis, where some people received an unfair share of the token supply.

The latest coin to come under scrutiny is the XRP token, with community members asking questions about some events that took place at Genesis. As a result, Ripple CTO David Schwartz has taken it upon himself to clarify these issues.

What Happened To The Genesis Block?

David Schwartz first drew criticism from the Bitcoin community with a tweet earlier this week where he mocked the opinion of a Bitcoin maxi he supposedly had a conversation with. This conversation, where the Bitcoin maxi had seemingly called XRP worthless, and Schwartz mocked the opinion as worthless, would quickly devolve into a debate for XRP’s legitimacy in no time.

Responding to Scwartz’s post, X user @MetaMan_X asked the Ripple CTO if there was any other blockchain that had lost its entire genesis block. Now, for those who do not know, the XRP Ledger starts at #32,569 instead of at #1 as would be expected from a blockchain. This has always been a point of contention as

The Ripple CTO, however, defended the XRP Ledger by saying “The choice of what to consider the genesis block is arbitrary.” He further compared the blockchain to that of the Ethereum blockchain, saying that the second-largest cryptocurrency in the world also had similar hiccups at the start.

He points to a single transaction carrying more than $6 million worth of ETH which apparently has no point of original. Schwartz explains that even Ethereum had transactions that were not on the blockchain, and he would know because this massive transaction was carried out by himself.

How Was The XRP Supply Distributed At Genesis?

Schwartz further went on to defend the XRP Ledger from those who asked him to provide any transactions that were included in the genesis block. According to him, there were actually no transactions included in the Genesis block. Furthermore, out of the 32,570 ledgers that are currently missing from the blockchain, the Ripple CTO revealed that there were only 534 transactions in those blocks. So now, all of those transactions are presumed to be lost with those initial blocks.

Another piece of information that the Ripple CTO provides is how the total XRP supply was initially distributed at the start. Apparently, the founders had received 20% of the total supply at the start, with Jed McCaleb and Chris Larsen getting 9% of the total supply each. Then a third founder, Arthur Britto received 2%, completing the 20% allocation to founders.

The vast majority of the supply would go to the company, OpenCoin (now known as Ripple), with 99.99% sent to the company’s wallets. Then then remaining 0.013% would end up going to Beta testers and developers on the blockchain.

This revelation provides insight to how the XRP distribution was handled and why Ripple holds such a large chunk of the supply. Currently, the company releases one billion coins from escrow every month, with 200 million tokens kept for the cost of operations and 800 million sent back to escrow.

Despite recent dips in price, Bitcoin is still on track for further gains, according to BitQuant. Based on technical analysis, the analyst predicts that the world’s most valuable coin will likely top out at $61,000, not $50,000, as some analysts have suggested.

Bitcoin Has Room For Growth, May Peak At $61,000

Sharing a screen grab on X, the analyst argues that based on Bitcoin’s history, prices tend to peak once it retests the 2X100 exponential moving average (EMA). So far, prices are lower, trading below $45,000, and the uptrend is valid despite the recent cool-off. 

For this reason, BitQuant is confident that the recent drop was a temporary correction. Accordingly, BTC will likely extend gains, breaking above immediate resistance levels at $45,000 and even $50,000 in the short to medium term.

Still, it should be noted that the 2X100 EMA is a technical indicator and may lag. Since the indicator averages past prices, it might not be accurate, showing current events and expectations of prices.

To demonstrate, in the last bear market, Bitcoin prices dipped below the 2X100 EMA as the coin tanked to as low as $16,000 by November 2022. This development wasn’t expected by the community, taking adherents by surprise.

So far, looking at the Bitcoin price action in the daily chart, the path of least resistance is northwards. Though the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was expected to lift prices immediately, BTC unexpectedly crashed. 

Bears appear in control, recently forcing prices below a short-term support level. For this reason, the immediate trend aligns with the January 12 bear engulfing bar. Making projections from this formation, BTC may, if bears take charge, drop to $40,000 or lower.

BTC Demand Surging

Even with this bearish outlook, the encouraging surge of capital to approved spot Bitcoin ETFs is bullish. Investor Fred Krueger notes that in the last five days alone, IBIT, the spot Bitcoin ETF issued by BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, received $1 billion. 

Looking at the pace of inflows, not only IBIT but other spot Bitcoin ETFs, Krueger believes BTC is undervalued at spot rates. The investor estimates that spot Bitcoin ETF issuers now hold over 650,000 BTC, up from 619,000 BTC as of January 1. This suggests that institutional investors are increasingly bullish on Bitcoin, and prices, though depressed, might recover going forward.

Rekt Capital, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst and enthusiast, has revealed the potential directions that the price of Bitcoin could take in light of the upcoming fourth BTC Halving.

Potential Retracement For Bitcoin

With the halving event approaching, analysts are debating what steps Bitcoin should take after its recent breach from the macro downtrend. One of those is Rekt Capital, who has weighed in on the particular issue and made a comparison to past trends.

The crypto analyst shared his latest projections during one of his YouTube predictions videos for Bitcoin. In the video, Rekt Capital delves in on the “next possible steps” that BTC is anticipated to take while highlighting “a breakout from its macro downtrend.”

His analysis focuses mainly on the reaccumulation range that formed prior to the halving event in 2015-1016 period. He further drew a comparison between 2023-2024 and 2015-2016, while noting similarities between the two periods.

According to him, the trend that formed within that period has resurfaced in the current 2023-2024 period. “One of the things that contributes to that similarity is the reaccumulation that formed a few months before the halving,” he stated.

Rekt Capital pointed out the possibility of a retracement around the Bitcoin halving event. This is due to a scenario proposed by the crypto analyst in which a reaccumulation range break triggers a retreat.

An analogy to the cycle of 2015–2016 indicates a comparable rejection from a resistance level prior to the halving, which may have contributed to a possible retreat.

Furthermore, he has highlighted that such retracements are indicated by historical data but stresses that they are often brief. However, he asserted that after the retrace, which is the “last opportunity,” we would see a price increase for Bitcoin.

This surge will “turn the $46,000 price level into a new support level, and move to touch its old all-time high.” Rekt Capital also anticipates the price going beyond this level putting Bitcoin on a path to a new all-time high.

Factors The Buttress BTC Value, ETFs Not Included

Samson Mow, the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Pixelmatic, has revealed several factors that boost Bitcoin’s value. Mow took to X (formerly Twitter) to underscore these factors with the crypto community.

According to him, the value of Bitcoin is amplified by “scarcity, utility, and the failure of fiat.” Mow further insisted that BTC Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) do not contribute to the token’s value.

His X post came in response to CNBC’s “Mad Money” host Jim Cramer’s post over his comments on BTC’s current action. Cramer asserted that “no one showed up” after the approval of BTC ETFs, which led to a decline in price.

Mow was displeased by Cramer’s claims, and he stated that many people were present while noting the net inflow. “A lot of people showed up. Just look at the net inflow and how much BlackRock, Fidelity, and others accumulated,” he stated.

XRP holders may have to deal with more price declines from the crypto token if this crypto analyst’s recent analysis is anything to go by. This bearish analysis comes amidst several other predictions that have painted bullish narratives for the crypto token. 

XRP Could Drop To As Low As $0.34

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted how a possible XRP sell-off could trigger a price decline to $0.34. As part of his analysis, he stated that XRP was currently “grappling” to maintain its footing at the crucial $0.55 support level. The token’s failure to hold that level will be what leads to the sell-off scenario. 

From the accompanying chart that Martinez shared, it was indeed evident that XRP was struggling to hold above the $0.55 level. A potential drop to $0.34 will see the crypto token drop to a price level that it hasn’t come close to since around April 2023. Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto also noted how critical the $0.55 level was, labeling it as a “significant support for XRP.”

Related Reading: Trillion-Dollar Franklin Templeton Shares High Praise For Solana, Is A SOL ETF Coming?

However, he had shown optimism that any price drop wasn’t going to be as bad as Martinez suggested by stating that he didn’t see the weekly candle closing below the $0.50 level. In fact, instead of anticipating any price decline, the analyst remarked that he was choosing to focus on the bigger picture.

What The Bigger Picture Is

According to Egrag Crypto, XRP is going to rise to $5 in less than 90 days from now. The analyst still alluded to this prediction in a more recent X post. While laying out three possible scenarios for XRP’s price, he stated that the market makers may “engineer an independent surge” that could propel XRP to this price level. 

Egrag had also previously mentioned that the altcoin could rise to as high as $27. He believes this price level is attainable based on the fact that XRP, back in 2017, surged by 61,000% in 280 days. This was something he emphasized once again in his latest post, noting that a 50% drop remains a “plausible scenario” as XRP tries to replicate that percentage move from 2017. 

While a significant price drop remains a huge possibility, Egrag believes that it also represents a “generational buying opportunity.” The analyst has continued to urge XRP holders to remain patient, especially if they hope to make the most gains from their XRP holdings, with Egrag once analyzing how the token will rise to $2,500 by 2029. 

In the meantime, those invested in the token will hope that Martinez’ prediction doesn’t come true, seeing that XRP has already dropped below $0.55. At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $0.54, down by over 3% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

The XRP price dynamics, in comparison to its more dominant counterparts, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have been a subject of intense scrutiny and debate. Pro-XRP lawyer Bill Morgan recently shed light on this perplexing trend through a detailed discourse on X (formerly Twitter), sparking a wide array of responses and theories from the community.

Morgan, reflecting on the long-term performance of XRP, pointed out a noticeable trend: “The XRP price dynamic seems to be to move with the market meaning BTC and Ethereum but to gradually over the long term decline in value against those two assets no matter what Ripple does.”

He highlighted a significant decline in XRP against BTC (84.85%) and ETH (91.58%) over the last five years. Initially attributing this trend to the lawsuit against Ripple, Morgan noted that even subsequent legal victories and clarity for XRP in the second half of 2023 did not reverse the declining trend, leaving the community questioning the underlying causes.

XRP Underperforms Significantly Vs. BTC, ETH: Why?

The discourse unfolded further in the comment section, where various users presented their hypotheses. One user branded XRP as “the most hated coin in crypto,” suggesting that a persistent negative sentiment, combined with aggressive shorting and attacks, has been detrimental to XRP’s value. Morgan concurred, acknowledging the impact of the “FUD narrative” but doubting it as the primary cause.

The discussion delved into other potential factors, including “tribalism” in the crypto space, the lack of speculative media attention around XRP, and the influence of large holders of BTC and ETH on the XRP price. Morgan termed these collective factors as the “narrative explanation,” acknowledging their role but still not convinced of them being the central issue.

“I call that the narrative explanation and I do believe it contributes to XRP price performance against BTC and ETH. I don’t think it is the main explanation. The FUD narrative against XRP is intense and continuous. It even included absolute nonsense about the SEC v Ripple case,” Morgan stated.

A pointed criticism came regarding the developer activity on the XRPL (XRP Ledger), with a user highlighting a lack of development as a significant concern. Morgan agreed, marking the inactivity as an issue. “Lack of developer activity is definitely a problem,” the lawyer remarked.

However, he firmly dismissed the notion that the monthly release of 200 million coins by Ripple from escrow is a factor, stating, “The escrow argument is easy to dismantle.” He also countered the argument about XRP’s utility, or lack thereof, by presenting evidence of its use in 50% of Ripple’s ODL (On-Demand Liquidity) transactions.

Competition And Propaganda

The role of stablecoins like USDT and USDC in cross-border payments and remittances, a domain where XRP aims to excel, was also discussed. Morgan admitted that increased competition in this specific area might indicate a broader issue: the lack of development of other applications for XRP on the XRPL.

Offering a broader perspective, Yassin Mobarak, founder of Dizer Capital, pointed to the “propaganda against XRP” as a significant deterrent to its value appreciation.

He argued:

Honestly, given the unfortunate successful propaganda against XRP in the crypto community, we should not look to existing retail investors for XRP price appreciation. That will likely never come. XRP will only grow from demand coming from utility, institutional users & investors, and new retail entrants into the space who have not been tainted by the historical propaganda.

As the conversation unfolds, it becomes evident that the factors influencing XRP’s price dynamics are multifaceted and complex. However, one thing is clear: if the supply side can be ruled out as a problem (Ripple escrow), it is the demand side which is lacking.

At press time, XRP was trading at $0.54908 and has fallen 2.5% in the last 24 hours, in line with the broader market.

An analyst has explained that if history repeats for Cardano, its price could resume its uptrend and rally to $7. Here’s when this could happen.

Cardano Could Follow Same Price Trajectory As Back In 2020

In a new post on X, analyst Ali has discussed how ADA’s latest consolidation phase has been mirroring its trend from late 2020. Below is the chart that the analyst has shared for the cryptocurrency.

As Ali has highlighted in the graph, ADA had been stuck inside a phase of consolidation for a couple of years in the lead-up to the 2021 bull run. Back then, the asset had been moving inside a parallel channel.

A “parallel channel” in technical analysis refers to the area made up of two parallel trendlines inside which the price of any commodity moves for a period of time.

The upper line of such a channel generally provides resistance to the price and can thus be a probable point of a local top. Similarly, the bottom line can act as support and help the asset bottom out.

Sustained breaks beyond either of these lines can suggest the continuation of the trend in that direction. For example, if the asset manages to escape above the channel, then it can be a signal that a bullish trend is now taking over.

Parallel channels can be at an angle as well, enclosing uptrends or downtrends. In the context of the current discussion, though, a channel parallel to the x-axis is of interest, as Cardano’s price movement during the periods relevant here was completely flat.

From the chart, it’s visible that ADA had briefly plunged below its parallel consolidation channel during March 2020. However, this break was a result of the COVID-19 crash, which was an anomalous event, so it may be safe to disregard it in the long-term picture.

Since around mid-2022, the coin has also been moving inside a similar parallel channel. “Cardano’s current consolidation phase mirrors its late 2020 behavior,” explains the analyst.

During the past consolidation phase, it took until mid-2020 before ADA managed to find a break above the pattern. The break wasn’t an entirely clean one, though, as the asset returned back for a retest of the upper line not too long after before finally setting off on a massive run in late 2020.

“If history repeats itself, we might see ADA resuming its upward trend around April,” says Ali. “This pattern continuation could potentially lead to an upswing toward $0.80, a brief correction to $0.60, then $7!”

From the current spot price of the cryptocurrency, a rally to $0.80 would mean an increase of about 60%. At the same time, a run towards the eventual $7 target would imply a rise of a whopping 1,300%. It now remains to be seen if Cardano does end up following this potential path highlighted by the analyst or not.

ADA Price

Cardano has struggled during the past week as its price has come down 13% towards the $0.50 level.

Bitcoin dropped below $41,000 in the last 24 hours before making a recovery to rise above that level once again. This has become the current reality of the flagship crypto token’s price, which has continued to decline since the Spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved. This is surprising considering that these funds were projected to help boost Bitcoin’s price upon launch. 

Why Bitcoin’s Price Could Be Dipping

Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart provided insight into what could be the reason for Bitcoin’s declining price as he revealed that Grayscale’s GBTC has experienced an outflow of $2.2 billion since its conversion to a Spot Bitcoin ETF. Crypto analytics platform Arkham Intelligence also revealed that Grayscale had moved 9000 BTC from their wallets to Coinbase, suggesting an imminent sale. 

A sell pressure of such magnitude would no doubt affect Bitcoin’s price, and that seems to be a plausible explanation for why Bitcoin’s price has declined as of late. The CEO of Jan3 and Bitcoiner, Samson Mow, also echoed similar sentiments as he mentioned that the GBTC sell pressure was pushing prices down. 

However, Mow believes that this trend “won’t be a long drawn out process,” as he predicts that many of GBTC’s investors won’t be able to offload their stocks because the “tax hit is too big.” JP Morgan will, however, beg to differ as a research report by the bank estimates that up to $3 billion could exit from the GBTC fund with many investors looking to take profit. 

Crypto analyst Ash Crypto also recently elaborated on how profit-taking is one of the reasons that GBTC is seeing this significant amount of outflows. He explained that a lot of GBTC investors bought shares in the fund when it was trading at a 40% discount from Bitcoin, and now they are exiting their positions since that discount is now at 0%. 

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Are Actually Living Up To Hype

While Grayscale’s GBTC continues to bleed, other Spot ETFs look to be living up to the hype, with there being an impressive demand for these funds. Nate Geraci, the President of the ETF Store, revealed that two (IBIT and FBTC) out of the nine Spot ETFs (excluding GBTC) already hit $1 billion in assets under management (AUM) just after five trading days. 

Specifically, BlackRock’s IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) was the first to achieve this milestone in just four trading days. Commenting on how impressive this was, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas noted that only two other ETFs ($GLD and $BITO) had done this before now, and none of those funds faced such competition as IBIT did on launch day.  

The demand for Spot ETFs is evidently there, seeing that two spot Bitcoin ETFs have already achieved a record that was held by only two other ETFs before now.

The Bitcoin price experienced a further sell-off yesterday and fell by more than 5% intraday to as low as $40,660. Since the year-to-date high of $49,000 on January 11, the BTC price has dropped by as much as 17%. However, according to renowned crypto analyst Jacob Canfield, this may not be the end of the correction. In a recent analysis, Canfield warned that more downside could be on the cards in the short-term.

The analyst, known for accurately predicting the local top of Bitcoin, addressed the prevailing uncertainty in the market. “The question that everyone is asking now is ‘where do we go from here?’” the analyst posed, acknowledging the community’s growing concern.

A significant factor in the current market dynamics is the approval of a Bitcoin ETF, which has led to speculation about Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) investors selling their holdings to evade the associated fees. The narrative is compounded by revelations from court filings that the FTX bankruptcy estate holds a substantial number of GBTC shares, approximately 22,280,720 (worth $744 million), poised for liquidation.

Conversely, signs of market optimism emerge with BlackRock’s ETF, IBIT, reportedly accumulating spot Bitcoin aggressively, adding up to 25,067 bitcoins in under a week. The analyst suggests that this buying momentum from BlackRock may eventually counterbalance the selling pressure from GBTC, especially when considering the impact of the upcoming Bitcoin halving, creating a ‘delayed impact’ event potentially tipping the scale towards demand over supply.

How Low Can Bitcoin Price Drop?

The chart analysis provides a more immediate and grim perspective. The Bitcoin 4-hour chart indicates a lost trend that’s now acting as resistance, historically a foreboding sign for short to mid-term price movements.

“The 4 hour trend on bitcoin has been lost and tested as resistance. This is not great as the 4 hour trend historically has been a good indicator for short term/mid term price movements, the analyst remarked.

Canfield further points out, “If I was looking for a level for a short term bounce, it would probably be at a sweep of the $40,000 liquidity,” hinting at potential downward pressure on the price.

The Bitcoin daily chart presents a narrow path, with significant levels at $48.7k, marked by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and weekly resistance, and a notable support level at $38.7k. “As I’ve noticed in former posts, after BTC taps the 61.8, it tends to sell off 18-22%, which would give us another crack at that $38.7k level as well,” warns Canfield.

Furthermore, the daily 200’s (EMA/MA) are currently trending upwards, having previously acted as support, suggesting they might cushion a further price fall.

The analyst concludes with a word of caution, emphasizing the need for vigilance in the current market characterized by low volume and volatility, conditions that often precede substantial market movements: “Biggest thing I can stress is that caution is needed during low volume/low volatility environments as a big move typically follows.”

At press time, BTC traded at $41,178.