Blockchain

An analyst has revealed the four key Bitcoin price levels that could be to keep an eye on, as they may have an influence on the spot price’s trajectory.

These Are The Four Key Price Points For Bitcoin

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant Netherlands community manager Maartunn has shared four key price levels for Bitcoin. Three of these levels involve some kind of variation of the “realized price” on-chain indicator.

The realized price keeps track of the price at which the average investor on the network acquired their coins. In other words, the metric measures the average cost basis of the asset’s user base.

When the spot price of the cryptocurrency is greater than the realized price, it means that the average holder in the sector can be assumed to be carrying some profits right now. On the other hand, the price being under the indicator implies the market as a whole is underwater some net amount at the moment.

Naturally, the price is exactly equal to the metric, suggesting the average holder is just breaking even on their investment currently. Historically, this is the condition that has been of particular importance for the coin, as such retests can flip the profit-loss situation of the investors.

Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that reveals the trend in the four key Bitcoin price points in question over the last few years:

In the above graph, the red colored line (which also happens to have the highest value out of these right now) corresponds to the realized price of the “short-term holders” (STHs).

The STHs refer to the investors who bought their coins within the last 155 days. At present, the average cost basis of this cohort stands at $38,750. In bullish periods, this level has often been a point of major support for the asset, and Bitcoin came quite close to retesting it during its latest drawdown.

Opposite to the STHs are the “long-term holders” (LTHs), whose realized price is shown by the green curve in the chart. The indicator’s value is only $18,740 for this cohort currently, implying that these HODLers are carrying high amounts of profits.

The purple line in the graph represents the “adjusted realized price,” which is a metric that provides a baseline for the market in general. Bitcoin found its bottom back in September when it retested this level. Currently, the indicator’s value stands at $31,190.

Close to this line right now is the fourth and final price level pointed out by the analyst, the 200-week moving average (MA), which is at $30,500. 200 weeks is approximately how long the popular 4-year Bitcoin cycle lasts for, so this MA can help reveal the cycle baseline momentum for the coin.

Maartunn, in particular, finds this 200-week MA and the adjusted realized price to be the most intriguing levels out of the four listed here.

BTC Price

Bitcoin had made a visit under the $42,000 level yesterday, but it appears the asset has already bounced back, as it’s now trading above $43,000 again.

Ripple Labs, a leading American-based payment firm has locked away a substantial amount of XRP tokens in its escrow wallet as part of its monthly unlock program to help bolster its ecosystem and XRP.

Ripple Takes Back 800 Million XRP 

A recent report from on-chain tracker Whale Alert revealed that Ripple took back about 800 million XRP tokens. This is no surprise, as the stated transaction has been a recurring outcome by the payment firm.

The payment firm locked the aforementioned funds after its monthly 1 billion XRP release, which has caught the attention of the crypto space. According to Whale Alert, the firm carried out the transaction in two distinct transfers. 

For the first transaction, Ripple locked away 500 million XRP tokens, valued at $253 million at the time of the report. Data from XRPScan shows that the 500 million XRP were initially transferred from “Ripple 23” to “Ripple 11” wallets before they were locked away.

Meanwhile, the second transaction saw 300 million XRP valued at about $151 million being transferred to the company’s escrow wallet. Whale Alert revealed the transaction was carried out by another wallet address identified as “Ripple 10,” according to data from the XRPScan. 

The firm has been releasing XRP from its escrow holdings every first day of the month. This process is a component of Ripple’s strategy to regulate the amount of XRP in circulation and uphold stability in the dynamic world of digital assets. 

After making up 55% of all XRP supply at first, the escrow accounts now own 40.7% of the supply. This is a result of the progressive unlocking process since it began in December 2017.

As of December 2017, the firm held 55 billion XRP as part of the escrow system initiative, which was mostly implemented on the XRP Ledger (XRPL).

XRP Whales On Dumping Spree

Whale Alert has also detected a substantial dump of XRP on cryptocurrency exchanges (CEXs). Whale Alert reported that over 67 million XRP was observed being moved to Bitso and Bitstamp platforms.

Further data shows that the unknown wallet address r4wf7enWPx…5XgwHh4Rzn transferred 37.9 million XRP to a Bitso-based wallet address. As of the time of transfer, the funds were valued at approximately $19 million.

Later on, 29.7 million XRP was moved to Bitstamp, a Luxemburg-based crypto exchange, in a separate transaction. According to the tracker, the same wallet address carried out the transaction worth about $15 million. This particular wallet address has been carrying out this type of transaction to the CEXs for a while now. It is believed that this might be due to Ripple’s strategic partnership with these centralized exchanges.

The price of XRP is still down by over 2% in the past week, trading at $0.505. Its market capitalization is currently up by 2%, but its trading volume has decreased by over 36% in the past 24 hours.

Market intelligence platform Santiment recently revealed how XRP whales look to be going all in on XRP following significant purchases of the crypto token. Notably, these buys are said to be the most since Ripple’s partial victory over the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 

XRP Records 217 Whale Transactions

Santiment stated in an X (formerly Twitter) post the XRP Ledger processed 217 ‘$1 million whale transactions’ on the network on January 31. This happens to be the most transactions of such magnitude recorded in a single day since Judge Analisa Torres ruled that XRP wasn’t a security in itself last year July. 

Just like Santiment noted, such an occurrence has the potential to impact XRP’s price positively. XRP had risen to as high as $1 on the back of Judge Torres’ ruling as it strengthened the conviction of the altcoin’s holders, who then decided to double down on their investments. If such a similar scenario plays out again, then XRP is expected to experience price surges soon enough. 

The market intelligence platform also added that some key signals indicated that XRP was “one of the better candidates for a bounce, assuming Bitcoin Bitcoin can stabilize the rest of the week.” The altcoin had dropped below the crucial support level of $0.5 following Bitcoin’s recent decline. However, it is back above that level as the market shows signs of recovery. 

Meanwhile, despite XRP’s relatively stagnant price action, these whales do not seem to be worried. Santiment revealed that wallets holding at least 10 million XRP tokens combined to hold 67.2% of the available supply, the most since December 31, 2022. 

Binance Freezes $4.2 Million Worth Of Tokens

Binance CEO Richard Teng stated in an X post that the crypto exchange had managed to freeze $4.2 million worth of XRP, which was part of the proceeds from the recent XRP exploit. NewsBTC had reported how there was a breach on the personal XRP accounts of Ripple’s co-founder Chris Larsen, which led to the theft of more than 213 million tokens. 

Teng also mentioned that the Binance team will help retrieve the remaining funds in any way they can. He added that they were closely monitoring the majority of the funds in the exploiter’s external wallets just in case they tried depositing these tokens to Binance. 

The exploiter is reported to have laundered some of these funds through crypto exchanges like MEXC, Gate, Kraken, OKX, and HitBTC. 

Shiba Inu marketing lead Lucie has given an insight into the timeline for the upcoming developments of the project, sending the SHIB army into a tizzy. Speaking via X (formerly Twitter), Lucie provided a glimpse into the roadmap after a meeting with the project’s lead, Shytoshi Kusama.

Lucie stated, “After meeting with Shytoshi Kusama, I can’t reveal much, but I can say one thing: The goal is to have everything finished by the end of this year. The whole vision should be completed by 2024/2025. It’s not a promise, but that’s the goal.”

This ambitious timeline suggests a rapid pace of development for the Shiba Inu ecosystem. The marketing lead emphasized the potential impact of these developments on the Shibarium, BONE, and the SHIB token itself, particularly highlighting the role of decentralized applications (dApps) and strategic partnerships.

“With every dapp usage on Shibarium and many significant partnerships in the works, it should have an amazing impact on Shibarium, BONE, while also contributing to burning SHIB,” she said.

Lucie further elaborated on the significance of the DAO, stating, “The Dao will showcase the real power of LEASH and Shiboshis.” Furthermore, the Shiba Inu team appears to be gearing up for another step forward with the SHIB Metaverse, with Lucie teasing, “As for the Shib the Metaverse… well, we will see. One world, one financial state. All hail to the real holders!”

Shiba Inu Price On The Verge Of A Breakout?

The SHIB cryptocurrency is currently exhibiting signs of consolidation within a descending channel pattern, hinting at a potential breakout in the near term. As of the latest data, SHIB trades at $0.00000904 against the US dollar on the Coinbase exchange, with a modest 1.8% decrease in the last 24-hours.

Technical analysis of the SHIB/USD pair in the 4-hour indicates that the price is oscillating within a descending channel, which is typically considered a bearish pattern but can lead to a bullish breakout if the price breaches the upper boundary. The price has touched the larger trend line support derived from the weekly chart, suggesting a strong historical support level.

The Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) on the 4-hour chart provide key levels to watch. The 200-EMA ($0.00000938), 20-EMA, 50-EMA, and 100-EMA are layered above the current price, with the 200-EMA acting as the most important resistance.

Volume is quite low, which does not highlight significant buying or selling pressure at the moment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around the 49.69 mark, which is just below the neutral 50 level, indicating an equilibrium between buyers and sellers. A move above 50 in the RSI could signal increasing buying momentum, which might assist in a bullish breakout from the channel.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing high to low show that the 0.236 level at $0.00000878 has been acting as the most crucial support recently, while the 0.382 level at $0.00001050 and the 0.5 level at $0.00001188 are potential upside resistance levels that come into focus when SHIB breaks out of the descending channel.

For SHIB to confirm a bullish breakout, it needs to consistently close above the upper boundary of the descending channel and the 200-EMA. A decisive 4-hour candlestick close above these levels could encourage further buying, potentially leading to a test of the 0.382 Fibonacci level. Moreover, it’s crucial for bulls to maintain the price above the larger trend line support to avoid a bearish turnover that could see SHIB revisiting lower support levels.

Chainlink (LINK), the leading oracle network on the blockchain, has been on a tear, outperforming the broader market with a 30% gain in the past week. This surge has pushed LINK’s price to $17.82, solidifying its dominance among altcoins, as bulls set their sights on the vaunted $20 target.

Chainlink On-Chain Activity Hints At Renewed Investor Interest

Analysts point to several factors driving the rally. Santiment, an on-chain data provider, revealed a surge in activity from previously dormant wallets, suggesting renewed investor interest. This is reflected in the “Age Consumed” metric, which measures the total number of days coins have been dormant before being moved. For Chainlink, this metric hit a 5.38 billion spike – the highest ever recorded.

Whales Accumulating, But Liquidations Pose Minor Threat

Santiment’s data also indicated minor liquidations from some wallets, a phenomenon often associated with fear or uncertainty. While these liquidations could trigger short-term volatility, they might also present buying opportunities for savvy investors. Additionally, reports suggest whales accumulating LINK, further fueling bullish sentiment.

The rationale behind this perspective lies in the understanding that fear-induced sell-offs might create temporary price dips, allowing savvy investors to acquire assets at more favorable prices.

Moreover, recent reports have indicated a pattern of whales accumulating LINK, contributing to the overall bullish sentiment surrounding the cryptocurrency. Whale accumulation, where large holders increase their positions, is often interpreted as a sign of confidence in the asset’s future potential.

Technical Analysis Paints Bullish Picture

Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe identified a “higher low” on the LINK/BTC trading pair, which he considers a bullish signal. He predicts a potential breakout, with LINK reaching $25-$30 in the near future, fueled by a broader altcoin market rally. Van de Poppe even envisions a 50-80% surge for the altcoin market, pushing its valuation to a staggering $1.25 trillion.

While Van de Poppe’s analysis sparks optimism, it’s crucial to remember that expert predictions are not guarantees. The cryptocurrency market remains inherently volatile, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

CFGI At ‘Neutral’ 

Meanwhile, LINK’s “Fear & Greed Index” is currently positioned at 40, indicating a state of neutrality in the market sentiment. This numerical assessment reflects a balance between fear and greed among investors and traders in the context of Chainlink’s performance.

A “Neutral” reading on the Fear & Greed Index implies that the market is not heavily skewed towards either extreme optimism or pessimism. In such a scenario, investors may exhibit a measured and cautious approach, avoiding impulsive decisions driven solely by emotions.

This equilibrium in sentiment suggests that participants are likely assessing the market conditions with a more rational and balanced perspective, considering various factors before making significant moves.

The “Fear & Greed Index” serves as a valuable tool for market participants to gauge the prevailing sentiment and potential market trends. In the case of Chainlink’s current reading at 40, it signifies a market environment where neither excessive fear nor greed is dominating decision-making.

Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from TradingView

The Spot Bitcoin ETFs have lived up to the hype, as these funds have ramped up institutional adoption of the flagship cryptocurrency, Bitcoin. This is further evident in a recent analysis that captured how much Bitcoin BlackRock and other issuers amassed in this week alone. 

Spot Bitcoin ETF Issuers Purchased Over 19,908 BTC This Week

Data from the on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain shows that the Spot Bitcoin ETF issuers combined to purchase over 19,908 BTC ($860 million) this week. Meanwhile, it is worth mentioning that Lookonchain’s data didn’t capture WisdomTree’s BTC purchases in its analysis, suggesting that the figure could be way higher when the asset manager’s purchases are also factored in. 

Further data obtained from Arkham Intelligence provided insights into how much Bitcoin Wisdom Tree obtained for its Bitcoin fund this week. 74 BTC is shown to have gone into the asset manager’s wallet address for its Spot Bitcoin ETF. The addition of these crypto tokens means that all Spot Bitcoin ETF issuers combined to purchase almost 20,000 BTC this week alone. 

Interestingly, Bitcoin ETFs were recently reported to hold 3.3% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, underscoring their success since launching. Data from Lookonchain shows that these ETFs currently hold over 657,000 BTC (excluding WisdomTree). 

Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer (CIO), also revealed how these funds have seen flows of $1.7 billion after their first 14 trading days. This is more impressive as he made a comparison to Gold ETFs, which saw $1.3 billion in a similar time frame. In another X post, he mentioned how these Spot Bitcoin ETFs have taken $700 million in net inflows this week alone.

BlackRock Finally Trumps Grayscale

Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart mentioned in an X post that BlackRock’s IBIT looks to have become the first ETF to trade more than Grayscale’s GBTC in a single day. Before now, Grayscale had continued to record the most daily trading volume, although IBIT had come close on a couple of occasions. 

From the data that Seyffart shared, IBIT looks to have recorded $301 million in trading volume on February 1, while GBTC saw $290 in trading volume. However, he further stated that the total trading on the day “was kind of a dud,” with all Spot Bitcoin ETFs combined recording $924 million in trading volume.

Interestingly, that happened to be the first day that the daily volume for Spot Bitcoin ETFs was under $1 billion. The Bloomberg analyst didn’t, however, give any opinion as to what could have caused this relatively sub-par performance. 

In the dynamic world of cryptocurrency, Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, is painting an optimistic picture for the potential recovery and growth of Solana in the crypto market. Known for his adept navigation through market fluctuations, Hayes recently shed light on Solana’s positive trajectory, emerging from the shadows cast by the downfall and legal entanglements of FTX.

Solana (SOL), once the favorite of the now-convicted founder Sam Bankman-Fried, had faced uncertain speculations about its destiny in the aftermath of the FTX collapse. However, Hayes’ sanguine remarks have reignited interest in the network’s future possibilities.

With a history of accurate market predictions, Hayes divulged his investment strategy in a recent essay. Within it, he explored the potential downturn of Bitcoin (BTC) and his decision to divest some tokens to minimize losses, including Solana and Bonk tokens.

Solana Recovery Sparks Hayes’ Optimism For Strategic Altcoin Investments

Hayes envisions a robust investment in Solana and various altcoins if Bitcoin’s price dips below $35,000, signaling his confidence in Solana’s prospective recovery and growth.

I think it might be time to get back on the train fam. Maybe after a few US banks bite the dust this weekend. pic.twitter.com/SxCwK3BVYB

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) February 1, 2024

Solana’s market performance has been marked by notable price swings. Following a bullish surge in late 2023, the cryptocurrency experienced a correction in early 2024 but has showcased resilience, maintaining a price indicative of investor trust.

Hayes’ earlier bullish comments on Solana have coincided with a price uptick, adding credibility to his positive outlook. His recent commentary has sparked renewed optimism in the crypto community regarding Solana’s potential, particularly in the aftermath of the FTX catastrophe.

Fam I have something embarrassing I must admit.

I just bot $SOL, I know its a Sam-coin piece of dogshit L1 that at this point is just a meme. But it is going up, and I’m a degen.

Let’s Fucking Go!

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) November 2, 2023

Emphasizing Solana’s promise, Hayes took to his social media platforms to express his bullish sentiments, sharing a chart illustrating the cryptocurrency’s price movements. The post swiftly gained traction, proposing a strategic approach to rejuvenating the Solana market, especially in the face of potential turbulence in the U.S. banking system.

SOL Rollercoaster: From Correction To Bullish Optimism

Solana’s journey in the market has been a rollercoaster of highs and lows. Commencing from a modest position in October 2023, SOL soared to impressive heights by Christmas before undergoing a correction with the onset of the new year. Nevertheless, the digital currency has displayed resilience, charting a course that hints at potential recovery and growth.

The former BitMEX big boss Hayes is expressing optimism about Solana’s recovery and growth potential. His bullish stance, coupled with his market acumen and past successful predictions, has reignited interest and hope within the crypto community regarding Solana’s future prospects.

Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from TradingView

In an analysis released via X, Thomas Young, managing partner at RUMJog Enterprises, is projecting a staggering upward trajectory for Bitcoin’s price by the end of the year, basing his predictions on the influence of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) inflows. As NewsBTC reported, Grayscale’s GBTC outflows have slowed down significantly recently, resulting in constant net inflows over the past five consecutive days,ranging from $14.8 million to $247.1 million.

The 118 Multiplier Concept

The crux of Young’s analysis hinges on the concept of the ‘118 multiplier’, a metric introduced by Bank of America in March 2021. This multiplier posited that an investment influx of approximately $92 to $93 million was needed to move Bitcoin’s price by 1%. At that time, Bitcoin’s market capitalization was approximately $1.09 trillion, corresponding to a unit price of around $58,332.

Young’s forecast revisits and modifies this concept, emphasizing its non-static nature. He notes, “The Multiplier is a result of several interacting variables, including the volume and velocity of capital inflow, the readily tradable supply of Bitcoin, and external factors affecting risk metrics in the broader market.” Thus, the 118x multiplier is suggested to be a dynamic, rather than a fixed, indicator.

Drawing on data from HODL15Capital, Young observes a consistent growth in Bitcoin ETFs, averaging an influx of 4,193 BTC per day. This translates to approximately $176 million of net new capital daily. For forecasting purposes, Young adjusts this figure to $150 million daily, spread uniformly across the trading days of each month (typically 20-23 days).

Bitcoin Price Could Reach $131,000 By EOY

Applying a more conservative multiplier of 50x, as opposed to the original 118x or 100x, Young calculates an estimated monthly upward price pressure of $8,000 per Bitcoin. This calculation leads to a year-end price target of at least $131,000 for Bitcoin. Young states, “This $131K represents the lower bound of the forecast, acknowledging that actual capital flow may not be uniform and other factors could increase the multiplier.”

The adjusted analysis also takes into account the irregularities observed in January, particularly the one-time selling of GBTC. Young revised the January data to provide a more accurate representation of the trend for the remainder of the year. He suggests, “A rule of thumb: the daily average BTC gain across all ETFs times $2 gives a conservative estimate of the ETF growth’s price effect.”

Based on this model, Young’s monthly Bitcoin price predictions, assuming ETF inflows continue at the rate observed in the first 15 days, are as follows:

January: $42,000
February: $50,022
March: $58,044
April: $66,448
May: $74,852
June: $82,492
July: $90,896
August: $99,300
September: $106,940
October: $115,726
November: $123,366
December: $131,388

This meticulous analysis from Young not only highlights the potential impact of ETF inflows on Bitcoin’s price but also underscores the complexity and dynamic nature of cryptocurrency markets. However, other events that affect supply and demand dynamics, such as the next BTC halving, as well as macroeconomic developments (Fed rate cuts), among others, are other factors that make price predictions incredibly difficult.

At press time, BTC traded at $43,021.

Solana is attempting a fresh increase from the $92 zone. SOL price could gain bullish momentum if it manages to clear the $100 and $104 resistance levels.

SOL price started a fresh decline from the $106 resistance against the US Dollar.
The price is now trading above $92 and the 100 simple moving average (4 hours).
There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at $100 on the 4-hour chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
The pair could start another increase if it surpasses the $100 and $104 levels.

Solana Price Faces Key Test

Solana price started a fresh decline after it struggled to clear the $106 level like Bitcoin at $43,800. There was a clear move below the $102 and $100 support levels.

Besides, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at $100 on the 4-hour chart of the SOL/USD pair. However, the bulls were active near the $92 level and the 100 simple moving average (4 hours). The price is now attempting a fresh increase above the $95 level.

The price retested the $100 zone and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $106.41 swing high to the $92.95 low. SOL is now trading above $95 and the 100 simple moving average (4 hours).

Source: SOLUSD on TradingView.com

Immediate resistance is near the $100 level. The next major resistance is near the $104 level or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $106.41 swing high to the $92.95 low. A successful close above the $104 resistance could set the pace for another major increase. The next key resistance is near $112. Any more gains might send the price toward the $120 level.

Another Decline in SOL?

If SOL fails to rally above the $100 resistance, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $92 level and the 100 simple moving average (4 hours).

The first major support is near the $90 level, below which the price could test $85. If there is a close below the $85 support, the price could decline toward the $78 support in the near term.

Technical Indicators

4-Hours MACD – The MACD for SOL/USD is gaining pace in the bullish zone.

4-Hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for SOL/USD is above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $92, and $92.

Major Resistance Levels – $100, $104, and $112.

Ethereum price is attempting a fresh increase above the $2,280 resistance. ETH could gain bullish momentum if there is a clear move above $2,350.

Ethereum is slowly moving higher from the $2,240 support zone.
The price is trading above $2,280 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
There is a rising channel forming with resistance near $2,320 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
The pair might start a fresh increase if it manages to clear the $2,350 resistance zone.

Ethereum Price Stuck Below $2,400

Ethereum price correction gains and traded below the $2,300 level. However, ETH bulls were active near the $2,240 support zone. A low was formed near $2,241 and the price started an upward move, like Bitcoin.

The price is still moving in a broad range below the $2,400 pivot zone. There was a minor increase above the $2,280 and $2,300 resistance levels. The price even tested the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,390 swing high to the $2,241 low.

Ethereum is now trading above $2,280 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is also a rising channel forming with resistance near $2,320 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD.

On the upside, the first major resistance is near the $2,315 level. The next major resistance is near $2,320 or the trend line. The next key resistance might be $2,350 or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,390 swing high to the $2,241 low, above which the price might rise and test the $2,400 resistance.

Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

If the bulls push the price above the $2,400 resistance, they could aim for $2,480. A clear move above the $2,480 level might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise toward the $2,550 level.

Another Decline in ETH?

If Ethereum fails to clear the $2,350 resistance, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $2,290 level or the 100 hourly SMA.

The next key support could be the $2,240 zone. A clear move below the $2,240 support might send the price toward $2,200. The main support could be $2,120. Any more losses might send the price toward the $2,080 level.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is losing momentum in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $2,240

Major Resistance Level – $2,350