Blockchain

In a recent video by renowned cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen, ominous predictions for Bitcoin performance in September have emerged. Cowen, known for his data-driven approach to cryptocurrency analysis, shared his insights regarding Bitcoin’s historical performance in September and its potential trajectory for the current year.

Cowen acknowledged that September has traditionally been a challenging month for BTC, often characterized by negative price movements. He emphasized that while historical trends suggest a red month for Bitcoin in September, there are no guarantees, and occasional green September does occur.

The analyst highlighted that Bitcoin had experienced six consecutive red September from 2017 to 2022. The average return for Bitcoin in September has historically been around -6.6%, with a standard deviation that adds to the unpredictability of the cryptocurrency’s performance.

Examining Potential Price Declines

Cowen then delved into the potential price decline for Bitcoin in September. Given Bitcoin’s opening price of just below $26,000 for the month, a 7% decrease would bring its value to approximately $24,000. He further pointed out that in the pre-halving year of 2019, Bitcoin witnessed a 14% drop in September, potentially pushing its price down to $22,000.

To bolster his argument, Cowen referred to a recent tweet in which he speculated a substantial chance of Bitcoin reaching $23,000 in September. Although he stressed that this prediction is far from a guarantee, he underscored the seasonal pattern, the downward momentum, and the recent monthly close below certain support levels as factors that make a dip to $23,000 plausible.

Moreover, Cowen discussed the average returns in all pre-halving years for the month, revealing a drop of approximately 17.7%, which could result in Bitcoin trading at around $21,500 if history repeats itself.

On August’s performance, Cowen noted that Bitcoin had already experienced a 10% drop. While August’s long-term average is approximately 21%, averaging only the last two pre-halving years (2015 and 2019) suggests a more modest -11% to -12% average drop. This highlights that Bitcoin may follow a similar pattern in September, potentially softening the blow to around $24,000.

The current price of Bitcoin (BTC) is  $25,813, with a 24-hour price change of -0.99%. As the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin commands a significant market cap of $502,654,681,515, securing its position as the number one cryptocurrency by market capitalization. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has experienced a trading volume of $17,603,174,408, making it the second most actively traded cryptocurrency by volume. This high trading volume indicates strong interest and activity within the Bitcoin market, contributing to its liquidity.

Navigating Bitcoin’s Cyclical Nature

Cowen emphasized that despite the uncertainty, the seasonality of Bitcoin and the existing downward momentum make a test of the $23,000 level highly likely in the near future, possibly in September or October.

Cowen reflected on the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price movements in a broader context, stating that it often alternates between bullish and bearish phases. He stressed that during pre-halving years, Bitcoin tends to rise significantly during the first half and experience declines in the latter half. According to Cowen, this pattern is designed to “wreck” both bulls and bears before entering a period of sustained growth.

He also pointed out that while BTC may face challenges in the short term, once quantitative easing (QE) returns and the cryptocurrency market sentiment improves, altcoins could regain momentum.

In conclusion, Cowen cautioned his audience to remain vigilant in September, historically a month of red returns for Bitcoin. He urged caution, citing past data and market dynamics as indicators of a potentially challenging month ahead. While the future remains uncertain, Cowen’s data-driven analysis serves as a valuable resource for those navigating the turbulent waters of the cryptocurrency market. Investors and enthusiasts will undoubtedly watch closely to see if Bitcoin’s performance aligns with his predictions in the coming weeks and months.

Bitcoin whales, entities holding a substantial portion of the Bitcoin supply, have ignited speculation within the cryptocurrency realm by amassing more than a billion worth of BTC in mere two weeks.

Data from crypto analytics firm IntoTheBlock reveals a significant uptick in the accumulation of Bitcoin by addresses holding at least 0.1% of the total BTC supply, valued at over $500 million each. These entities collectively added a staggering $1.5 billion to their holdings during the final two weeks of August. 

This surge in accumulation coincides with the excitement surrounding the potential introduction of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States. This substantial accumulation of Bitcoin by crypto whales serves as a clear testament to their growing confidence and heightened interest in the cryptocurrency, irrespective of recent price oscillations and regulatory ambiguities. 

Addresses holding 0.1% of the Bitcoin supply or more have added over $1.5B in BTC holdings in the last two weeks. pic.twitter.com/MrHKLXO9qx

— IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) September 1, 2023

Bitcoin Price Upsurge Amidst ETF Speculation

The chronology of this accumulation is particularly captivating. While Bitcoin’s price experienced a dip, it experienced a transitory resurgence subsequent to a pivotal court ruling linked to Grayscale’s pursuit of a spot Bitcoin ETF. The verdict translated into a price upswing exceeding $2,000, propelling the alpha coin to a two-week zenith, slightly exceeding the $28,000 threshold.

Nevertheless, just as the cryptocurrency community was poised for jubilation and pinned hopes on the ETF’s ratification, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) introduced an unexpected regulatory twist. A

dopting a circumspect stance, the regulatory authority deferred its verdict on all active Bitcoin ETF applications. Consequently, Bitcoin relinquished all its gains stemming from the brief rally triggered by the Grayscale ruling, regressing below the $26,000 mark.

Institutional Optimism Amidst Ambiguity

The current BTC price is $25,808.30 according to CoinGecko, with a 24-hour decline of 0.8% and a seven-day loss of 0.9%.

Despite the recent tumultuous price fluctuations and the ambiguity clouding the cryptocurrency market’s regulatory landscape, the continual accumulation of Bitcoin by crypto whales implies that institutional investors are cultivating an increasingly sanguine outlook regarding Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.

The prospect of a Bitcoin ETF, promising a regulated and accessible entryway for mainstream investors, persists as a game-changing possibility that could significantly reshape the crypto outlook in the United States and beyond.

While the cryptocurrency community anticipates further developments and regulatory determinations, the conduct of these crypto whales functions as a tangible gauge of swelling institutional interest in Bitcoin, fortifying the belief in its enduring value and pertinence. 

These crypto whales wield not only the power to sway the market but also reflect the sentiment and perspective of dominant participants within the dynamic domain of cryptocurrencies.

Featured image from VOI

Shiba Inu (SHIB) has recently found itself in a downward spiral. Over the past few days, the coin has been experiencing a steady decline, causing concern among its enthusiastic community of holders. The latest development indicates a potentially worrisome trend as sellers breach the lower support trendline of a bearish pennant pattern, hinting at further price drops on the horizon.

The bearish pennant pattern is a technical analysis chart pattern commonly used in cryptocurrency markets. It is characterized by a consolidation phase after a sharp price decline, resembling a small symmetrical triangle that slopes downwards. This pattern typically suggests that the selling pressure remains strong, and the asset may continue to experience losses.

As of the latest data from CoinGecko, SHIB is currently trading at $0.00000786, marking a 1.3% decline in the past 24 hours and a 3.2% slump over the past week. These numbers reflect the ongoing bearish sentiment in the market.

Shiba Inu Market Sentiment And Volatility

One notable aspect of SHIB’s recent price movement is the low trading volume in the market. Low volumes often indicate a lack of conviction among traders, which can result in subdued price action. 

While this may suggest that the downward momentum is not particularly strong, it also leaves SHIB vulnerable to sharp price swings should a significant volume of trades occur. Traders are closely watching for signs of increased activity that could either exacerbate the decline or potentially reverse the trend.

Shibarium: Glimmer Of Hope

Amid the uncertainty surrounding SHIB’s price, there is a ray of hope for the Shiba Inu community. The successful relaunch of Shibarium, Shiba Inu’s Layer 2 scaling solution, has garnered attention. Shibarium aims to address some of the challenges facing the Shiba Inu ecosystem by reducing transaction costs and increasing transaction speed. 

These improvements could make SHIB more attractive to users and potentially drive up demand for the cryptocurrency. While this development offers a counterbalance to the bearish technical indicators, its ability to reverse the trend remains uncertain.

SHIB finds itself at a challenging position as it contends with the bearish pennant pattern and declining prices. The cryptocurrency market’s low volumes reflect a cautious sentiment among traders, leaving SHIB susceptible to potential price swings.

The relaunch of Shibarium brings a glimmer of hope for SHIB’s future, as it seeks to enhance its utility and appeal. However, investors and traders are advised to exercise caution and closely monitor the market dynamics as SHIB navigates these challenging waters.

(This site’s content should not be construed as investment advice. Investing involves risk. When you invest, your capital is subject to risk).

Featured image from Sunny Skyz

Polygon (MATIC), one of the prominent players in the cryptocurrency market, has faced a turbulent period as it lost its grip on the $0.60 mark, leaving investors and traders on edge. 

As of the latest data available, MATIC was trading at $0.540840 on CoinGecko, reflecting a 1.4% slip in the past 24 hours and a 0.6% decline over the last seven days. This dip in price has sparked discussions about the coin’s immediate future.

The cryptocurrency market has been characterized by considerable uncertainty, with Bitcoin (BTC), the bellwether of the industry, also grappling with price fluctuations. Analysts suggest that BTC might enter a narrow consolidation phase before establishing a clear direction in the coming week. 

Given this backdrop, MATIC could follow suit by consolidating above the critical support level of $0.50 before attempting an upward move toward the 50-EMA (Exponential Moving Average) at either $0.60 or $0.65.

Polygon Key Chart Indicators Raise Concerns

Technical indicators have painted a cautious picture for MATIC. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the lower range, signifying bearish momentum, while the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has struggled to breach the zero level, indicating limited capital inflows and heightened selling pressure.

Additionally, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) has slightly dipped, further suggesting a waning demand for MATIC in the current market conditions.

In the midst of this market turbulence, Polygon has made an intriguing proposition. In July, the project unveiled plans for a token upgrade aimed at enhancing the capabilities of MATIC holders within the Polygon ecosystem. 

Polygon’s Ambitious Proposal

The proposal seeks to enable MATIC holders to validate transactions on multiple blockchain networks, potentially increasing their utility and influence. However, it’s important to note that this proposal is currently pending approval from the Polygon community.

If this proposal receives the green light, it would mark a significant shift for Polygon, as the coin would transition from MATIC to POL. Such a transition could have far-reaching implications for both the Polygon network and its community of users, potentially influencing MATIC’s price dynamics in the long run.

Polygon finds itself at a critical juncture amid the recent market turbulence. While the short-term outlook remains uncertain due to negative chart indicators and wavering demand, the potential token upgrade proposal from Polygon offers a glimmer of hope for MATIC holders. 

As traders and investors closely monitor market developments, the path forward for MATIC will largely depend on broader market trends and the community’s decision regarding the proposed upgrade.

(This site’s content should not be construed as investment advice. Investing involves risk. When you invest, your capital is subject to risk).

Featured image from Bizz Buzz

Shiba Inu (SHIB) is expected to play a significant role in the success of the layer-2 network Shibarium and the proposed decentralized Shiba Inu State. With this in mind, Shiba Inu’s marketing lead, Lucie, shared a quote from the recently published ShibPaper highlighting the token’s importance in the ecosystem and the roles holders will play.

SHIB Remains The Core

In a tweet, Lucie shared the second chapter of the whitepaper, where SHIB is mentioned as the “core” of the ecosystem. The document also labels the token as “one of the greatest currencies in the history of mankind.”

To emphasize the importance of SHIB in the ecosystem, The ShibPaper states that the token would take a “new, yet critical role” in the governance of the Shiba Inu State. The token will be the community’s voice in many decisions.

The ShibPaper, in chapter one, revealed that SHIB would be one of the governance tokens for the SHIB Inu State. In chapter two, it went further to give an insight into how governance of the decentralized state will look like. According to the document, every Shibizen (citizen of the Shiba Inu State) would be allowed to vote on important decisions as long as they hold “One SHIB.”

@LucieSHIB serious question: don’t you think allowing holders of just 1 Shib to vote is enabling malicious actors? They can distribute small amounts of Shib into many wallets, then vote in a way that is not the best for the ecosystem.

Any thoughts from #SHIBARMY and @Shibtoken? https://t.co/SvMDEKmJEg

— Mike S (@crypto_is_great) August 31, 2023

However, following Lucie’s tweet, a user quickly pointed out a downside of this move as he questioned whether or not this move could enable “malicious actors” who would simply distribute 1 SHIB across many wallets and then vote against proposals that may benefit the ecosystem. 

Shiba Inu’s Growth

SHIB has tremendously grown since it launched in 2020, becoming one of the largest cryptocurrencies by market cap (currently 16th at the time of writing).

As part of plans to continue to bolster the token, the team plans to maintain its deflationary nature as several SHIB tokens are set to be burned in a move that will decrease its supply. 

According to data from Shibburn, SHIB currently has a total supply of 589 trillion SHIB, with 410 trillion SHIB already burned from its initial supply of 999 trillion SHIB.

This move is expected to increase SHIB’s value as a reduced circulation supply creates an increased scarcity, thereby making the token more valuable. However, the team is cautious about promising the community that SHIB’s price is bound to increase significantly in the future. 

Meanwhile, Shibarium’s success is also projected to help boost SHIB’s value, considering that increased trading activity on the layer-2 network invariably means more utility for the token.

Wallets on Shibarium crossed over 100,000 just a day after it relaunched. Wallets on the network have surged massively since then, as there are over 1 million wallets created on the network, according to data from Shibarium Explorer. 

Featured image from SimpleTexting

The identity of the mind behind the Shiba Inu meme coin has been a long-standing crypto mystery since it first debuted in 2020. So far, there has been no concrete proof as to who it might be with guesses ranging from FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried to Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin. Despite having little success so far, crypto investigators have not given up as a new theory has popped up as to the creator behind Shiba Inu.

Has The Shiba Inu Founder Been Identified?

An X (formerly Twitter) user identified by the username @boringsleuth first drew attention on Thursday, August 1, after they posted an elaborate theory as to who the founder of Shiba Inu is. In this initial thread, the researcher put forward that there was not one but two founders behind the coin.

Two names were put forward – Ryo Suzuki & Tsuyoshi Maruyama, a combination of which the researcher believes was used to make the widely known Ryoshi moniker. Interestingly, both of the people named were identified to be advisors of B2C2, a liquidity provider. This is where the investigator makes the connection to Shiba Inu.

According to Boring Sleugh, the liquidity provider’s wallet once held 25% of the total SHIB supply in its wallet. Furthermore, they linked the two alleged founders together by pointing out that Tsuyoshi Maruyama had immediately taken over as an advisor for B2C2 when Ryo Suzuki stepped down from the role in 2021.

A follow-up post from the researcher digs deeper into Suzuki’s past, tying him to an internship at Microsoft when SHIB was launched, as well as a visit to the infamous MIT media lab in 2019.

Wait until I show you that Ryo Suzuki, who I believe is the real founder of $SHIB, visited MIT’s media lab in 2019. Yeah, this same media lab that links Gensler, Epstein & Gates? What if I told you the Canadian Ryo Suzuki was also an intern for Microsoft when Shiba Inu launched? https://t.co/H2PM5FNkLb pic.twitter.com/nwkUz27Cu4

— TruthLabs (@BoringSleuth) August 31, 2023

Unveiling Shocking Connections

After debuting the theories on Thursday, it seemed Boring Sleuth was not done as a continuation was posted on Friday morning. This time around, the on-chain sleuth presents theories that connect the alleged founder to prominent personalities and organizations.

The first of these was a connection to Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin through a series of transactions that connected the Shiba Inu deployer wallet to Buterin’s wallet. The wallet in question identified as “0x2135” was not only connected to Buterin, however. The sleuth lists out notable people and organizations the wallet has also been connected to in the tweet below:

Wallet 0x2135 is connected to:

Multiple Vitalik Buterin wallets
CCP official Roger Lim (HATES the West)
Satofishi, Binance Dev/Stakefish Founder
Wanxiang (Gensler gave them special Broker Dealer license)
LingLing & Multichain Dev (Crypto Cartel)
Maker DAO Multisig
& More

7/8 pic.twitter.com/eib84d1CQN

— TruthLabs (@BoringSleuth) September 1, 2023

The infamous gifting of half the total SHIB supply to Vitalik Buterin is also called into question, which one X user refers to as “a massive money laundering scheme.” In response, Boring Sleuth says that the ‘gift’ was a 100% tax write-off for the Ethereum founder. “He captured all the value without moving price down 1 cent,” the researcher added.

Despite how convincing Boring Sleuth’s theories have been for some, there is still no confirmation of who the SHIB founder(s) are. The sleuth alludes to this as well in their most recent tweet saying “If you don’t know, the Shib founder has yet to come out.”

After overcoming initial setbacks, Shibarium, an Ethereum (ETH) layer-2 (L2) network backed by Shiba Inu (SHIB) tokens, has experienced a remarkable surge in metrics.

With over 820,000 new wallet addresses and more than 90,000 daily transactions, Shibarium has demonstrated its appeal to users seeking faster, cheaper, and more private off-chain transactions while leveraging the security of the underlying Ethereum blockchain.

Shibarium Emerges Strong

Shibarium operates as a layer-2 network built on the Ethereum blockchain, aiming to enable faster, more cost-effective, and privacy-focused off-chain transactions while leveraging Ethereum’s security features. 

The recent increase in Shibarium’s metrics carries significant implications for the Shiba Inu project and its native token, SHIB. 

Furthermore, the growing number of wallet addresses and daily transactions within the network indicates an expanding user base and increased interest in the SHIB token.

On the same note, the rapid growth of Shibarium’s user base demonstrates its potential to enhance scalability and drive wider adoption of the Shiba Inu project. By addressing Ethereum’s scalability limitations through its layer-2 solution, Shibarium aims to improve the user experience by enabling faster and more cost-efficient transactions.

Shibarium scan plays a crucial role in monitoring the network’s progress. The platform’s data reveals surpassing 820,000 new wallet addresses, indicating the growing community embracing Shibarium’s benefits.

As Shibarium’s metrics continue to show positive trends, it bodes well for the future of the Shiba Inu ecosystem and the SHIB token. The network’s ability to provide faster, cost-effective, and private transactions will likely attract more users, driving adoption and strengthening the ecosystem.

Looking ahead, Shibarium is expected to play a pivotal role in supporting the growth and scalability of the Shiba Inu project.

The recent surge in Shibarium’s metrics, with over 820,000 wallet addresses and over 90,000 daily transactions, marks a significant milestone for the Shiba Inu ecosystem. As a layer-2 network built on Ethereum, Shibarium focuses on enhancing transaction speed, reducing costs, and prioritizing privacy.

This achievement is significant for the Shiba Inu project and the SHIB token, demonstrating the network’s potential for scalability, broader adoption, and continued growth. With Shibarium’s infrastructure in place, the Shiba Inu ecosystem is well-positioned to thrive in the evolving landscape of decentralized finance.

Shiba Inu Faces Market Headwinds

Despite recent developments, the Shiba Inu ecosystem faces some challenges, particularly its native token, SHIB, which has been affected by the overall market trend.

SHIB is trading at $0.00000783, reflecting a 2% decline over the past 24 hours. More notably, the token remains significantly below its year-to-date price, experiencing a decline of over 34%.

Of particular concern for SHIB bulls is the key support level at $0.00000762, which has been instrumental in sustaining the token’s price since July and has allowed occasional surges to $0.00001134.

However, should the market recover and resume its bullish trend, SHIB may encounter a noteworthy obstacle in the form of its 50-day Moving Average (represented by the brown line in the chart). This Moving Average could substantially challenge the token’s upward trajectory.

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com 

The Sui Network, known for its fast-paced growth and community support, is on the verge of a notable event. On September 3rd, a massive amount of SUI tokens, worth roughly $18.7 million, will be unlocked.

Given its nature and the significant sum involved, this move could have some implications for the altcoin’s market dynamics in the coming days.

A Rewarding Gesture For The Early Birds?

The details surrounding this unlocking event have been transparently shared with the public. According to Token Unlocks, a crypto monitoring platform, this release will encompass 35.6 million SUI tokens.

This quantity represents roughly 5% of the current circulating supply and interestingly, a predominant portion of these tokens could be earmarked for the network’s early supporters.

Notable Unlocks Alert

Save the date [ September 3rd ]

In three days, 35.6 million $SUI will be unlocked, equivalent to a value of 18.7 million dollars

Get ready and mark your calendar!

Reference:https://t.co/58X45YBAzy pic.twitter.com/zVwTuECUaS

— Token Unlocks (@Token_Unlocks) August 30, 2023

With this event, chances are that some of the scheduled unlocked tokens could likely be used to reward SUI’s Active Contributors and Early Supporters (ACES) program.

As instituted by the SUI developer, Mysten Labs, earlier this year, the ACES program was crafted as a gesture of gratitude. It aimed to acknowledge and reward those SUI discord members whose contributions were pivotal before the altcoin’s mainnet launch.

Moreover, alongside this unlocking, data from Token Unlocks suggest that SUI also intends to set aside a portion of the unlocked tokens for staking incentives.

What To Expect From SUI?

With such a significant amount set to unlock, the temptation to sell might arise for some early supporters, especially if a portion is rewarded to Active Contributors and Early Supporters. This could potentially lead to a sell-off.

Historically, massive token unlocks have sometimes resulted in short-term price depressions, given the increased market supply.

Furthermore, the network, which has seen rapid expansion, has also recorded a user base jump from 3 million to 5 million users in a mere 14 days and then further to 6 million active accounts within another three days.

With an addition of approximately 1 million active accounts weekly over recent weeks, such growth rates might cushion any potential bearish impacts.

1 million new accounts in less than 12 hours pic.twitter.com/4dShywYoGn

— Suipiens (@suipiens) August 30, 2023

Meanwhile, ranking 89th among larger crypto by market cap, SUI has seen a notable plunge of nearly 10% in the past 7 days. And even in the past 24 hours, the bloodbath continues as the asset records a 1.3% decline with a market price of $0.49 at the time of writing.

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

The trend in the total supply of the stablecoins may have hinted in advance that the Bitcoin rally wouldn’t last too long.

Bitcoin Stablecoins Supply Hasn’t Moved Much Recently

An analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post explained that the latest news has been unable to make the stablecoins supply budge. The “stablecoins supply” here refers to the total circulating supply of all stablecoins in the sector.

Generally, investors use stables to escape the volatility associated with most coins in the rest of the cryptocurrency sector. Thus, whenever this metric rises, new tokens of the stablecoins are being minted because there is a demand for converting to them from the other assets or fresh demand is coming into the market.

Such investors who seek safety in these fiat-tied tokens usually do so because they don’t want to exit the cryptocurrency sector completely; they only require a temporary place to station their capital.

When these holders eventually find that the prices are right to jump back into the volatile coins like Bitcoin, they swap their stablecoins into them, thus putting buying pressure on their prices.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the stablecoins supply over the past year:

In the graph, the quant has marked a specific correlation between the Bitcoin spot price and the stablecoin supply. It would appear that all the major increases in the former during the past year have come following rises in the latter metric.

There are three instances of this trend in this period: the first formed before the January rally, the second before the March rebound, and the third before the June surge.

From the chart, it’s apparent that the price increase in the asset wasn’t caused by the increases in the supply of the stables but rather the decline in them that followed afterward.

The increases in the supply of the stablecoins likely occurred because of fresh capital injections. When this new capital was deployed into Bitcoin and the others (when the indicator declined), the assets obtained the fuel for their rallies.

With the most recent rally in the asset instigated by the news of Grayscale’s victory against the US SEC, there was no such pattern in the supply of these fiat-tied assets.

This may have been one of the early signs that the rally wasn’t backed by constructive market growth, as the stablecoins supply has only been moving sideways. The Bitcoin retrace below the $26,000 level may have only been a natural consequence of this weak structure.

BTC Price

Bitcoin had earlier fully retraced the gains of the Grayscale rally, but it would appear that the decline isn’t over just yet, as the asset has now gone below the $26,000 level it had been at before the surge.

The recent decline in Bitcoin (BTC) has raised concerns among market participants as the largest cryptocurrency struggles to maintain its upward momentum. 

With the loss of key moving averages and the $27,000 level, BTC’s sharp decline has been exacerbated by negative market sentiment and delays in the approval of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 

Adding to the bearish outlook is the analysis of on-chain data, which suggests a lack of strong support below the $25,400 mark. 

Renowned crypto analyst Ali Martinez has emphasized this concern, highlighting the potential for a swift correction down to $23,340. However, the volatile nature of the Bitcoin market means that the outcome remains uncertain.

Bitcoin Faces Extended Downtrend

Ali Martinez’s recent post on X (formerly Twitter) has shed light on the on-chain data analysis for Bitcoin. Martinez points out that BTC is currently lacking robust support below the $25,400 level. 

This observation is based on BTC’s UTxO Realized Price Age Distribution, which provides insights into different cohorts’ holding behavior by overlaying a range of realized prices along with age bands. 

The analysis indicates a vulnerability in BTC’s price structure, suggesting that a break below the $25,400 threshold could trigger a swift correction downward to $23,340.

Moreover, the negative sentiment in the market, coupled with regulatory delays in the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC, has added to the bearish outlook for Bitcoin. 

Many market participants had anticipated that the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs would act as a catalyst for a potential recovery in the near term. However, the prolonged delay in their approval has dampened investor sentiment and increased uncertainty surrounding the cryptocurrency’s future price trajectory. 

The lack of a favorable regulatory framework has further contributed to the extended downtrend and heightened market volatility.

This said, if Bitcoin breaks below the critical support level at $25,400, as suggested by the on-chain data analysis, it could lead to a rapid correction down to $23,340. Such a significant decline would heighten concerns among investors and potentially trigger further selling pressure. 

Healthy BTC Correction?

Adding to the analysis of the Bitcoin market, crypto analyst Egrag Crypto provides a broader context by highlighting the likelihood of the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) gap closure and the significance of the $23,000 level as strong support. 

According to Egrag Crypto, even if BTC retraces to this point, it should be seen as a natural correction within the framework of an ongoing bull market.

Egrag Crypto suggests that the CME gap closure is a phenomenon where the price of Bitcoin fills the price gap created between the closing and opening prices of the CME futures market over the weekend. 

In this case, the gap exists around the $23,300 level, which indicates a potential area of strong support. This observation aligns with the notion that Bitcoin tends to fill these gaps over time. 

While a retracement to $23,300 may cause concern among investors, Egrag Crypto emphasizes that it should be viewed as a healthy correction within the broader context of a bull market. 

Corrections are a normal part of any market cycle, and Bitcoin has historically experienced periods of consolidation and retracement before continuing its upward trajectory.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $25,990, representing a 4% decline within the 24-hour period and a substantial 11% drop over the past 30 days. Despite these recent losses, the flagship cryptocurrency has successfully maintained its year-to-date gains, boasting a remarkable profit of over 29% since September 2022.

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com