Blockchain

XRP has once again found itself in a state of relative stability. Despite minimal gains, the crypto is holding firm at $0.5, showcasing a remarkable resilience over the past 24 hours. However, the intriguing aspect of this scenario lies in the technical analysis and upcoming developments that may hold the key to XRP’s future trajectory.

Recent price analysis reveals that XRP is currently being held in check by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), capping its price at $0.5027. Furthermore, another significant seller congestion point looms at $0.505. 

This data paints a clear picture of the cryptocurrency’s sideways trading pattern, indicating that XRP is likely to remain within this range until it encounters a market-shifting event. The forthcoming update on the XRP Ledger has the potential to be precisely that.

XRP: Current Status

As of now, the Ripple native currency is priced at $0.505186 via CoinGecko, marking a modest 0.3% gain in the past 24 hours. However, its performance over the past seven days reflects a minor loss of 0.8%. According to expert analysis, traders should anticipate a consolidation phase in the range of $0.4950 to $0.5050 for the foreseeable future.

A glance at the weekly chart reveals a market in equilibrium, with neither the bulls nor the bears asserting dominance. This sentiment aligns with the declining trading volume, hinting at a potential breakout once XRP can secure a position above the interim zone of $0.55. A pivotal resistance level of $0.5848 awaits, promising a substantial rally if breached.

Ledger Update

The crypto community’s hopes are pinned on XRP’s upcoming update, version 1.12.0, which incorporates two transformative features. This update merges the XLS-30 Automated Market Maker (AMM) and the XLS-39 Clawback specification into the XRP Ledger’s protocol. 

1/ We’re excited to announce that the XLS-30 AMM spec and XLS-39 Clawback spec have merged to the latest version of rippled 1.12.0.https://t.co/zbg8G4PHsC

— RippleX (@RippleXDev) September 6, 2023

The brainchild of Ripple’s CTO, David Schwartz, and Aanchal Malhotra, RippleX’s Head of Research, the proposal behind XLS-30 aims to enhance returns for liquidity providers in the AMM while mitigating the risks posed by market volatility.

Anticipated Recovery

The technical indicators also hint at an impending recovery for XRP. With the cryptocurrency testing the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands, historical data suggests a tendency to revert to the indicator’s middle, indicating that the bulls might soon take charge.

XRP’s current sideways trading may be a precursor to significant movement, with the upcoming XRP Ledger update holding the potential to act as a catalyst for change. Crypto enthusiasts and traders will be watching closely as XRP navigates this pivotal juncture in its journey through the cryptocurrency market.

(This site’s content should not be construed as investment advice. Investing involves risk. When you invest, your capital is subject to risk).

Featured image from Times Tabloid

In a recent comprehensive report by Capriole Investments, Charles Edwards presents a compelling case for why 2024 will be a pivotal year for Bitcoin, potentially offering the highest returns in its current four-year cycle. The report delves into multiple facets of Bitcoin’s future, including its role as an inflation hedge, the upcoming Halving event, and the impact of imminent ETF approvals.

A Confluence Of Catalysts For Bitcoin

Edwards begins by addressing the skepticism surrounding Bitcoin’s performance as an inflation hedge. “Bitcoin gets a hard rep for its performance coming out of 2021 amidst growing inflation,” he notes. Contrary to popular belief, Edwards asserts, “Bitcoin was a great inflation hedge – it was when it needed to be.”

He emphasizes Bitcoin’s impressive 1000% rise from Q1-2020 to Q1-2021, outpacing all other asset classes. This surge, he explains, was a direct response to the Federal Reserve’s multi-trillion-dollar QE packages announced in March 2020. “Markets today move incredibly fast and are forward looking. As soon as macro announcements are made, the pricing-in begins,” Edwards states.

Drawing a comparison between Bitcoin and traditional hedges, Edwards points out that Bitcoin’s performance during the liquidity boom was unparalleled. “There is no doubt that Bitcoin dominated the crisis as the best inflation hedge,” he asserts, adding, “There is no second best. Bitcoin was the greatest inflation hedge we have ever seen.”

The second crucial catalyst for Bitcoin is the upcoming halving in April 2024. Edwards highlights the gravity of this event, stating, “The upcoming Bitcoin halving in April will drop Bitcoin’s supply growth rate to 0.8% p.a. and below that of Gold (1.6%) for the first time ever.” This means that “In April 2024, Bitcoin will for the first time become harder than Gold.”

Addressing the common argument that the Halving is already priced in, Edwards counters, “If there is one thing we have learnt from Bitcoin’s past it’s that the halving is never priced in.” He argues that 80% cycle drawdowns reset all interest in Bitcoin. Furthermore, Edwards draws parallels to previous cycles, noting that many on-chain metrics indicate that the current cycle mirrors those of 2019 and 2015 exactly.

Third, Edwards also touches upon the regulatory landscape, highlighting the clarity brought about by the CFTC’s classification of Bitcoin as a commodity in 2021. He also mentions the significant announcement of Blackrock’s Bitcoin ETF application and the federal appeals court’s order for the SEC to reconsider its rejection of the Grayscale spot ETF. His base case expectation is that the SEC will approve the spot ETF either in October 2023 or January 2024.

Discussing the potential impact of ETFs on Bitcoin, Edwards draws a parallel to Gold, noting the significant bull run that followed the approval of the Gold ETF in 2004. “When the Gold ETF approval hit, what followed was a massive +350% return, seven-year bull-run,” the analyst remarked, adding, “so, we have three incredible catalysts on the very near horizon,” he states, listing the upcoming halving, imminent ETF approvals, and Bitcoin’s status as the best inflation hedge.

In conclusion, Edwards presents a bullish yet cautious outlook. While he acknowledges the short-term bearish signals, he remains optimistic about the long-term prospects. “In Bitcoin’s four-year cycles, there’s typically 12-18 months where 90% of returns happen, followed by 2-3 years of sideways and down,” he observes, adding, “I am expecting that the single highest returning year of this cycle will be 2024 and I believe the data supports that thesis.”

At press time, BTC surged to $26,246, up 1.8% in the last 24 hours.

Binance Coin (BNB) finds itself in a precarious position, with its price rebound heavily contingent on a resurgence in network activity for BNB Chain. The decline in network activity has played a pivotal role in hindering price momentum for BNB, leaving investors and enthusiasts eager for a turnaround.

BNB’s recent price action has been characterized by extended periods of sideways movement. The bears have proven resilient at the resistance level, preventing prices from breaching the $225 mark. 

Currently, BNB is trading at $216.80, according to CoinGecko, with 24-hour gains of a modest 0.8%. Over the past seven days, the coin has seen a marginal decline of 0.1%, leaving investors and enthusiasts eagerly awaiting signs of a potential price rebound.

BNB Hinging On Bitcoin’s Performance

For bulls hoping to witness an upward movement in BNB’s price, their hopes might rest largely on Bitcoin’s shoulders. A significant breakthrough for Bitcoin above the $26,000 mark could inject much-needed bullish sentiment into the broader market, potentially benefiting BNB in the process.

Technical price analysis paints a rather bleak picture for BNB. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reflects the lack of demand for BNB, with a brief spike above the neutral 50 on August 30 quickly followed by a decline below the neutral 50. As of the latest data, the RSI remains in this bearish territory.

Additionally, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) has witnessed significant drops in trading volume, both in early June and late August. These sharp declines have contributed to BNB’s lateral price movement, further reinforcing the prevailing bearish market structure.

Regulatory Woes And Executive Exodus

Adding to BNB’s challenges is the regulatory scrutiny Binance, the platform behind BNB, has been facing recently. The exchange has been in the crosshairs of regulators worldwide, and the situation has been exacerbated by the departure of several high-ranking executives.

Mayur Kamat, Binance’s head of product, is the latest in a string of senior executives to leave the company, marking the fourth such departure.

As BNB grapples with these obstacles, experts in the field predict that the coin may experience further downward pressure. According to a price report, some experts anticipate BNB’s price to drop to $208 by September 19.

Binance Coin’s prospects remain uncertain as it navigates a challenging landscape characterized by declining network activity, technical indicators flashing warning signs, regulatory hurdles, and executive departures.

The fate of BNB appears intertwined with the broader cryptocurrency market’s performance, and investors and enthusiasts will be closely monitoring developments in the coming weeks.

(This site’s content should not be construed as investment advice. Investing involves risk. When you invest, your capital is subject to risk).

Featured image from iStock

Tron price is gaining pace above $0.0780 against the US Dollar. TRX is outperforming Bitcoin and could rally further above the $0.0800 resistance.

Tron is moving higher above the $0.0750 pivot level against the US dollar.
The price is trading above $0.078 and the 100 simple moving average (4 hours).
There was a break above a major contracting triangle with resistance near $0.0770 on the 4-hour chart of the TRX/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
The pair could continue to climb higher toward $0.088 or even $0.10.

Tron Price Breaks Higher

In the last Tron price prediction, we discussed the chances of an upside break against the US Dollar. TRX remained well-bid and stable above the $0.0750 level.

It started a decent increase and broke a few key hurdles near $0.0775, outperforming Bitcoin. There was a break above a major contracting triangle with resistance near $0.0770 on the 4-hour chart of the TRX/USD pair. The pair even cleared the $0.0785 level.

A high is formed near $0.0793 and the price is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $0.0751 swing low to the $0.0793 high.

TRX is trading above $0.078 and the 100 simple moving average (4 hours). On the upside, an initial resistance is near the $0.0795 level. The first major resistance is near $0.080, above which the price could accelerate higher. The next resistance is near $0.088.

Source: TRXUSD on TradingView.com

A close above the $0.0880 resistance might send TRX further higher. The next major resistance is near the $0.095 level, above which the bulls are likely to aim a larger increase toward the key $0.10 zone in the coming days.

Are Dips Limited in TRX?

If TRX price fails to clear the $0.080 resistance, it could start a downside correction. Initial support on the downside is near the $0.0780 zone.

The first major support is near the $0.0770 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $0.0751 swing low to the $0.0793 high, below which the price could accelerate lower. The next major support is $0.0750.

Technical Indicators

4 hours MACD – The MACD for TRX/USD is gaining momentum in the bullish zone.

4 hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for TRX/USD is currently above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $0.0780, $0.0770, and $0.0750.

Major Resistance Levels – $0.080, $0.0880, and $0.100.

Ethereum price is eyeing an upside break above $1,650 against the US Dollar. ETH could gain bullish momentum if it clears $1,650 and $1,670 in the near term.

Ethereum is slowly moving higher above the $1,620 support zone.
The price is trading above $1,640 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,625 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
The pair could start a decent increase if there is a close above the $1,650 and $1,670 resistance levels.

Ethereum Price Eyes Upside Break

Ethereum’s price remained stable above the $1,620 support zone. ETH formed a base and made another attempt to clear the $1,650 resistance, like Bitcoin.

There was a spike above the $1,650 resistance zone but the bulls struggled near the next hurdle at $1,670. A high was formed near $1,669 before the price trimmed gains. It traded below the $1,650 level. The bears pushed it below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,625 swing low to the $1,669 high.

However, the bulls protected the $1,640 zone. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,625 swing low to the $1,669 high.

Ether is now trading above $1,640 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. Besides, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,625 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $1,650 level.

Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

The next resistance is near the $1,670 level, above which the price could rise toward the $1,720 level. The next major hurdle is near the $1,750 level. A close above the $1,750 level might send Ethereum further higher. The next resistance might be near $1,820. Any more gains might send the price toward the $1,880 resistance.

Another Decline in ETH?

If Ethereum fails to clear the $1,670 resistance, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $1,642 level.

The first key support is close to $1,635 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. The next key support is $1,625 and the trend line. A downside break below $1,625 might push it to $1,600. If there is a downside break below $1,600, the price could revisit the key $1,540 support level.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is slowly gaining momentum in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $1,625

Major Resistance Level – $1,670

Bitcoin price is slowly moving higher above $26,000. BTC is showing signs of recovery but is still struggling to clear the $26,500 resistance zone.

Bitcoin is up 2% and trading above the $26,000 resistance zone.
The price is trading well above $26,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $25,940 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
The pair could struggle to clear the $26,500 and $26,750 resistance levels.

Bitcoin Price Avoids Downside Break

Bitcoin price managed to stay above the $25,350 support zone. BTC bulls protected a major downside break and pushed the price above the $25,850 resistance.

There was a move above the $26,000 resistance zone. Besides, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $25,940 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The pair even climbed toward the $26,500 resistance zone where the bears appeared.

A high is formed near $26,487 and the price is now consolidating gains. It traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the $25,609 swing low to the $26,487 high.

Bitcoin is now trading well above $26,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $26,400 level. The first major resistance is near the $26,500 level. A proper close above the $26,500 level might start a decent increase.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The next major resistance is near $27,000, above which the bulls could gain strength. In the stated case, the price could test the $28,000 level.

Are Dips Now Limited In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to clear the $26,500 resistance, it could start a downside correction. Immediate support on the downside is near the $26,100 level.

The next major support is near the $26,000 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the $25,609 swing low to the $26,487 high. A downside break and close below the $26,000 level might increase selling pressure. In the stated case, the price could drop toward $25,500 or even $25,350.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $26,100, followed by $26,000.

Major Resistance Levels – $26,400, $26,500, and $27,000.

Benjamin Cowen, an analyst and founder of Into The Cryptoverse, thinks Bitcoin will likely maintain a downside trajectory in September ahead of next year’s halving. Pointing to the coin’s performance and comparing it to how Bitcoin has faired over the years, the analyst predicts doom for the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin is trading at around $25,860 and has remained under pressure in the past few weeks after surging almost 60% from November 2022 lows, when the drop was accelerated by the collapse of FTX and the bankruptcy of several centralized finance (CeFi) lending platforms like BlockFi, the coin retraced from July 2023 peaks when it rallied to around $31,800. 

Will September Be Tough For BTC Bulls?

After an impressive performance in July, bears peeled back all gains in August. By the close of the month, Bitcoin was down roughly 20% from July 203 highs, with losses on August 17 triggering a scare across the board.

In his analysis, Cowen notes that the coin lost 11.31% in August, slightly lower than the average of the past two pre-halving years when the mean return that month when the coin shrunk by 11.71%. However, his projections for BTC look dimmer in September. 

The analyst, citing data, said prices tend to contract in all of September before halving. The average return stood at -17.29% in September before Bitcoin halved. Therefore, if the same holds and Bitcoin follows the same trend, the coin will likely dump to $21,400 by the end of this month. 

Related Reading: Make Or Break: Bitcoin Fate Hangs On The Edge Of The 200-Week EMA

On the “brighter” side, if the performance of Bitcoin in September in the last two halvings is factored in, the average return was -5.66%, which means BTC, though bearish, could end up falling to around $24,400 by the end of the month. This assessment implies that if historical performance leads, BTC may edge even lower in the next few weeks.

Which Way For Bitcoin?

Bitcoin supporters are bullish over the medium to long term. Despite the sharp dump on August 17, which pushed the coin to new H2 2023 lows at around $25,200, the slight recovery in the second half of August and the first week of September might anchor bulls’ hopes. Bitcoin is not out of the woods just yet, looking at price action.

From the daily chart, BTC prices are inside the bear candlestick of August 17, the main anchor bar that defines the current price action. Besides, though prices are relatively higher, trading volumes are relatively low. 

For a refreshing recovery, supporters are banking on the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF). This derivative product would allow institutions to gain exposure, channeling capital and potentially driving demand for BTC.

Recent adjustments by JPMorgan in its estimation of Bitcoin’s production costs have garnered attention. Previously standing at $21,000, JPMorgan’s revised Bitcoin production cost has now been pegged at $18,000.

This move is closely tied to the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index’s (CBECI) decision to update its methodology, highlighting the interconnectedness of financial analyses and industry metrics. Notably, the CBECI is known for its critical role in tracking and estimating the electricity consumption of the Bitcoin network. 

Revised CBECI Methodology’s Impact On Mining Costs

JPMorgan analysts, under the guidance of Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, noted in a recent report that the new methodology changes the landscape of Bitcoin’s production cost estimations. The report revealed:

The current Bitcoin production cost falls to around $18,000 with the new methodology vs. $21,000 with the old methodology.

According to the analyst, this shift implies that future changes in electricity prices will have a comparatively lesser effect on mining costs.

The CBECI’s adjustments have a broader impact than simply changing estimates. Analysts have discovered that changes in electricity costs can significantly reduce the cost of producing 1 Bitcoin.

With the new CBECI methodology, this sensitivity has decreased slightly to approximately $3,800, compared to the previous $4,300 change for every one cent per kWh (kilowatt hour).

According to the analyst, this sensitivity is expected to double after the 2024 halving event, which will decrease miners’ rewards by half. This change will amplify the importance of cost management due to the higher impact of electricity costs on the overall mining expenses.

Bitcoin Latest Price Action

So far, Bitcoin is still very much in the red. Following the asset’s 13% drop in the past month, slipping below $29,000, Bitcoin hasn’t made any significant movement aside from a continued downward trend. However, over the past 24 hours, BTC has seen some gains.

The top crypto currently trades for $25,902 at the time of writing, up by nearly 1% in the past day. Over the past month, more than $70 billion has been erased from the asset’s market cap.

Nevertheless, the past 24 hours have seen the asset record an inflow of $3 billion. While BTC’s price and market cap suffered a bloodbath, its trading volume was negatively impacted.

Bitcoin has seen its trading volume fall from a high of $14 billion last Wednesday to as low as $3.5 billion yesterday and $8 billion in the past 24 hours. This is a significant plunge compared to the daily trading volume of more than $15 billion recorded early last month.

Featured image from iStock, Chart from TradingView

Binance, one of the leading cryptocurrency exchanges, has recently decided to refund users $1 million USDT (Tether) following an incident related to the CyberConnect (CYBER) token. 

The refund aims to compensate users affected by a price discrepancy on listed CYBER tokens due to liquidity constraints on the Korean cryptocurrency exchange Upbit.

Binance Addresses CyberConnect Woes

As described by Binance, the incident unfolded when a liquidity crunch on CYBER cross-chain bridges hindered transactions on Upbit. This led to a price disparity between Upbit and other exchanges, attracting arbitrageurs who borrowed CYBER from Binance to profit from the price difference. 

Consequently, Binance users who had staked CYBER in its Flexible Earn Program could not redeem their assets since the staked tokens had been borrowed, reaching the loan limit.

In response to the situation, Binance acknowledged users’ feedback and sincerely apologized for the inconvenience caused. The exchange affirmed its commitment to prioritizing users’ interests and maintaining high transparency within the community.

Binance provided a detailed account of the events leading to the incident. It explained that the liquidity crunch on CYBER (ERC20) tokens resulted in a surge of loan requests for CYBER, triggering Binance’s risk management protocol. 

The exchange had to halt new loan requests and increase loan interest rates significantly. However, due to the substantial volume of redemption requests, Binance faced challenges in fulfilling them immediately despite maintaining a maximum borrowing limit as a buffer for redemptions.

Stricter Reviews And Potential Delistings

Moving forward, Binance outlined measures to enhance user experience and mitigate similar risks. These measures include dynamically adjusting loan interest rates and strengthening risk management protocols. 

According to their September 7 announcement, Binance also committed to conducting stricter reviews of tokens with smaller market caps and potentially delisting tokens with lower liquidity from certain programs. To compensate affected users, Binance announced a distribution plan for the $1 million USDT refund. 

It stated that 887 impacted users who failed to redeem their CYBER Simple Earn Flexible Products positions within a specific timeframe would receive a share of USDT tokens from the refund pool and additional CYBER tokens. 

The distribution would be proportionate to the daily average positions of the eligible users. All other users who held CYBER Simple Earn Flexible Products positions during the mentioned period would receive an equal share of CYBER Locked Trial Fund vouchers sponsored by the CyberConnect Foundation.

As the cryptocurrency industry continues to evolve, incidents like these serve as reminders of the importance of robust risk management measures and continuous improvements to safeguard user interests and maintain trust in the ecosystem.

Binance Coin (BNB) is currently trading at $215, in line with the prevailing market trend of stagnation. It has experienced a slight decrease of 0.2% over the past 24 hours and a 1.3% decline over the seven days. These figures indicate a relatively stable performance for BNB amidst the market conditions.

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com

Strica, a company working on solutions and use cases for the Cardano blockchain, unveiled a new feature for the smart contract platform via their wallet, Warp Transactions.  According to an official press release, described as a “game changer for token transfers,” Warp Transactions were created to ease the burden of transaction fees paid when sending assets on this network. 

Cardano New Feature Eliminates Sender Fees, But There Is A Clause

Usually, on Cardano, every token transfer demands the sender to pay a minimum fee of 1.14 ADA to secure against network attacks. However, the Warp Transaction now offers an alternative for this mechanism.

Warp Transactions are based on the Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) model. UTXOs refer to the small amount of digital currency after one executes a transaction. 

Now, Warp Transactions are considered a type of UTXO transaction. They use the receiver address’s UTXOs to cover the minimum ADA fee required to process transactions on the Cardano network.

However, there is a clause that this new feature employs a multi-signature function. Therefore, the receiver and sender must sign off for any transaction to be completed and published on the blockchain.

Furthermore, while Warp Transactions may mark a new era for the ADA community, this feature is only available for users of the Typhon Wallet. 

Whenever a Warp Transaction is initiated, the receiving address is notified and given 24 hours to accept or reject the transaction.  During this period, the tokens are moved from the sender’s wallet and are locked in a mempool, which acts as a “holding area” till the receiver approves or cancels the transaction. This mempool is managed by the backend of the Typhon Wallet. 

ADA Struggles For Market Breakout

In other news, ADA, native token of the Cardano network, has been moving sideways over the last few days. According to data from CoinMarketCap, the altcoin has been stuck in a market ranging between $0.25 and $0.26 price zone since the start of September. 

Before this market consolidation, ADA had been on a downtrend, losing about 12.9% of its value in August. According to data from Coincodex, the general sentiment around ADA remains bearish, with a Fear and Greed index of 41.

However, the prediction team projects that ADA will maintain its ranging market for now, reaching around 0.261 in the next five days. At the time of writing, ADA trades around $0.256 with a 1.09% loss in the last day based on data from CoinMarketCap. The token’s trading volume is also down by 7.92% and is now valued at $104.7 million.