Blockchain

In a swift turnaround from yesterday’s dip, Bitcoin (BTC) surged to nearly $26,000 during Asian trading hours on Tuesday. This recovery, which saw the BTC  climb from $25,210 to $25,973 in a mere 30 minutes (from 3:00 am to 3:30 am UTC), was not driven by any specific news event. Instead, the dynamics within the Bitcoin futures market played a pivotal role.

Why Has The Bitcoin Price Bounced Upwards?

Renowned analyst Skew provided a technical perspective on the price movement, referring to it as a “textbook short squeeze.” Delving deeper into Skew’s analysis, he pointed out a clear divergence in the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) of perpetual contracts (or “perps”) with the actual price. In trading, a divergence between CVD and price can signal a potential reversal. In this context, while sellers were trying to push the price below $25,000, the CVD indicated that buying pressure was mounting.

Furthermore, the futures market had a high number of short positions relative to the open interest (OI), and the funding rate was negative. A negative funding rate typically means that shorts are paying longs, indicating a bearish sentiment. Despite attempts to drive the price down, Bitcoin was reclaiming its swing long price level at $25,300 and failed to maintain the bearish trend in the lower time frame (LTF).

The spot market, where assets are bought and sold for immediate delivery, was showing signs of a bullish structure change, with prices gradually moving higher. Skew suggested that the culmination of these factors led to a short squeeze, where those who bet against the market (short sellers) are forced to buy back into the market to cover their positions, further driving up the price.

Skew’s analysis essentially highlights that while there was a bearish sentiment with many traders betting against Bitcoin, underlying indicators were hinting at a potential bullish reversal. For traders, the immediate goal post-squeeze is to reclaim $26,000.

TheKingfisher offered a more succinct take, hinting at the short squeeze and its impact on those who were betting against Bitcoin: “See you around high lev shorters. BTC Cleared them again.”

Axel Adler Jr. shed light on the broader market sentiment, noting, “Traders do not plan to go any lower. Net Taker Volume has risen by 9.79%. Over the past year, this is a new record for the balance of open Taker orders with long positions.”

Despite the rapid price movement, the short squeeze’s magnitude was relatively modest. Coinglass data reveals that about $12.32 million in BTC shorts were liquidated. For context, the most significant short liquidation event in the last three months occurred on August 17, amounting to $120 million, when BTC briefly dipped to $24,700 before making a quick recovery above $26,600.

The decline in open interest in futures on the major exchanges was also rather small. According to Coinglass, open interest fell from $10.66 billion to $10.65 billion. This slight decline suggests that few traders had to close their bets, with funding rates turning positive, signaling a shift from bearish to bullish sentiment.

At press time, BTC stood at $25,768.

Filecoin (FIL) has been facing a long-term downtrend, marked by wavering buyer confidence and a series of concerning technical indicators. A recent price analysis reveals a bearish order block at $3.6 on FIL’s one-day chart, with a closely tested liquidity zone at $3 over the past month. This downward trend has persisted since early August, as evidenced by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows.

On the weekly chart, two key levels have held significant sway over FIL’s fortunes since June 2022. The resistance at $4.8 and the support at $2.42 have acted as formidable barriers and lifelines, respectively. 

Analysis suggests that a breakthrough above the $4.8 resistance could signify the first step toward establishing a long-term uptrend. Furthermore, the presence of a bearish breaker block in the 1-week timeframe, spanning from $4.6 to $5.7, reinforces this notion.

Filecoin Bearish Signals Abound

The same analysis highlights that technical indicators have been unforgiving for FIL, with both the On-Balance Volume (OBV) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) painting a grim picture. The OBV has been in a consistent downward trajectory since mid-July, indicative of sustained selling pressure. 

Meanwhile, the RSI exhibits bearish momentum, recording a reading of 31 and consistently residing below the neutral 50 mark since late July. These combined signals strongly suggest that FIL may experience a drop below $3 and trend towards $2.4 in the weeks ahead.

As of the time of writing, the current CoinGecko price for Filecoin (FIL) stands at $3.04. Over the past 24 hours, FIL has experienced a decline of 1.7%, while the seven-day period has seen a slump of 4.3%. These recent declines add to the challenges that FIL has been facing in its price action.

Filecon seven-day price movement. Source: Coingecko

Investor Perspective: A Silver Lining For Filecoin

Despite the prevailing challenges, some seasoned investors are turning their attention to Filecoin. A report cites Filecoin’s unique value proposition, an accomplished team, and an incentivized mechanism as reasons for optimism.

Filecoin, as a decentralized data storage system, allows users to securely store and retrieve data in a decentralized manner. Its expert team is committed to ensuring its continued development and success. Moreover, the incentive mechanism rewards users with FIL tokens for sharing their storage space, fostering a robust and self-sustaining ecosystem.

Filecoin’s technical indicators may currently signal a challenging road ahead, with a downtrend seemingly in progress. However, some investors remain undeterred, recognizing the project’s unique strengths and the potential for a brighter future. As the cryptocurrency market is ever-volatile, only time will reveal whether Filecoin can overcome its current obstacles and thrive in the long run.

(This site’s content should not be construed as investment advice. Investing involves risk. When you invest, your capital is subject to risk).

Featured image from CryptoSlam

Bitcoin Cash price is holding the key $180 support against the US Dollar. BCH seems to be aiming for a fresh increase toward the $205 and $220 levels.

Bitcoin cash price is showing positive signs above the $180 level against the US Dollar.
The price is trading below $200 and the 100 simple moving average (4 hours).
There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $189 on the 4-hour chart of the BCH/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
The pair is likely to accelerate higher if it clears $197 and $200.

Bitcoin Cash Price Aims Higher

In the past few days, Bitcoin Cash price saw a steady decline below $205. BCH even traded below the $195 level, but the downsides were limited compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The price remained well-bid near the key $180 support. A low has formed near $180 and the price is now attempting a fresh increase. It broke the $185 level. There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $189 on the 4-hour chart of the BCH/USD pair.

The price is now testing the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $238 swing high to the $180 low. However, Bitcoin Cash is now trading below $200 and the 100 simple moving average (4 hours).

Immediate resistance is near the $197 level and the 100 simple moving average (4 hours). The next major resistance is near $205 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $238 swing high to the $180 low.

Source: BCH/USD on TradingView.com

Any further gains could lead the price toward the $220 and $225 resistance levels in the near term. The next major hurdle is near the $240 level.

Dips Supported in BCH?

If Bitcoin Cash price fails to clear the $205 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $185 level.

The next major support is near the $180 level, where the bulls are likely to appear. If the price fails to stay above the $180 support, the price could test the $168 support. Any further losses could lead the price toward the $150 zone in the near term.

Technical indicators

4-hour MACD – The MACD for BCH/USD is gaining pace in the bullish zone.

4-hour RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI is currently above the 50 level.

Key Support Levels – $185 and $180.

Key Resistance Levels – $197 and $205.

Ethereum price extended its decline below the $1,550 support against the US Dollar. ETH is recovering losses, but upsides might be capped near $1,620.

Ethereum gained bearish momentum below $1,580 and $1,550.
The price is trading below $1,600 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,605 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
The pair could correct higher but the bears might remain active near $1,600 and $1,620.

Ethereum Price Breaks Down

Ethereum’s price failed to settle above the $1,620 pivot level. ETH started a fresh decline and settled below the $1,600 level, like Bitcoin.

There was a drop below the $1,580 and $1,550 levels. It retested the $1,530 zone. A low has formed near $1,530 and the price is now correcting losses. There was a minor increase above the $1,550 level. The price climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,670 swing high to the $1,530 low.

Ether is now trading below $1,600 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. Besides, there is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,605 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD.

On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $1,600 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,670 swing high to the $1,530 low. The next resistance is near the $1,605 level or the trend line.

Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

The first major resistance is near $1,620, above which the price could rise toward the $1,650 level. The next major hurdle is near the $1,670 level. A close above the $1,670 level might send Ethereum further higher toward $1,750.

Another Drop in ETH?

If Ethereum fails to clear the $1,600 resistance, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $1,550 level.

The first key support is close to $1,530. The next key support is $1,500. A downside break below $1,500 might spark more bearish moves. In the stated case, there could be a drop toward the $1,440 level in the near term.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is slowly losing momentum in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $1,530

Major Resistance Level – $1,620

Bitcoin price broke the key $25,350 support. BTC is now consolidating near $25,000 and remains at a risk of more downsides in the near term.

Bitcoin traded below the $25,600 and $25,350 support levels.
The price is trading below $25,600 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $25,620 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
The pair could continue to move down if it stays below the $25,600 resistance.

Bitcoin Price Breaks Key Support

Bitcoin price failed to start a recovery wave and extended its decline below the $25,600 support. BTC even broke the $25,350 support and moved into a bearish zone.

The price even spiked below the $25,000 level. A low is formed near $24,925 and the price is now consolidating losses. Bitcoin is now trading below $25,600 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Besides, there is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $25,620 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $25,200 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $26,040 swing high to the $24,925 low.

The first major resistance is near the $25,600 level or the trend line. The trend line is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $26,040 swing high to the $24,925 low. The next key resistance is near $26,000.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

A proper close above the $26,000 level might start a decent increase. The next major resistance is near $26,200, above which the bulls could gain strength. In the stated case, the price could test the $26,500 level.

More Losses In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to recover the $25,600 resistance, it could continue to move down. Immediate support on the downside is near the $25,000 level.

The next major support is near the $24,800 level. A downside break and close below the $24,800 level might call for more downsides. In the stated case, the price could drop toward $24,500 or even $24,000.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $25,000, followed by $24,800.

Major Resistance Levels – $25,200, $25,600, and $26,000.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) share price has again made headlines. Its premium or discount to Bitcoin’s net asset value (NAV), often viewed as an indicator of institutional sentiment towards the cryptocurrency, has displayed a notable trend recently, even amid the prevailing bearish atmosphere.

GBTC’s Evolving Price Dynamics

The phenomenon of GBTC’s share price inching closer to Bitcoin’s market price is worth noting. The correlation between the two has been historically significant, with price differences often shedding light on broader market sentiments.

According to data from CoinGlass, a renowned crypto monitoring platform, the GBTC shares were recorded trading at a 17.17% discount to the BTC/USD rate as of September 9th, the last update.

Such levels haven’t been witnessed since December 2021, highlighting a potentially shifting sentiment in the market. The so-called “GBTC Premium,” previously a surplus, has been a discount to the net asset value for a while now.

The shift was drastic at one juncture that the differences neared roughly 50% last November. Such variance has led to a divergence between GBTC’s performance and Bitcoin’s price strength, especially as Bitcoin revisits price zones it hasn’t seen in the past six months.

What This Could Mean For Bitcoin

The narrowing of GBTC’s discount isn’t just an isolated event. It paints a broader picture of potential market sentiment shifts and future movements.

Notably, a shrinking discount can be interpreted as a sign of growing institutional interest, as the GBTC serves as a prominent avenue for institutions to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly holding the asset. If institutional interest is indeed on the rise, this could bode well for Bitcoin’s mid to long-term price outlook.

Nevertheless, Bitcoin is currently seeing a downtrend. The asset has plunged nearly 15% in the past month and 2% in the last 24 hours. As a result, its price has fallen below the recently established $26,000 mark, trading at $25,175 at the time of writing.

According to Cryptocon, a trader and analyst, Bitcoin might see a weaker performance this month as October often brings a turnaround and more decisive price action.

September is historically a pretty bad month for #Bitcoin, that’s just the facts.

October is historically very bullish.

But maybe, it’s November that will bring the turn around we need according to our performance since the halving dates.

To be… pic.twitter.com/Olg0XHVxKG

— CryptoCon (@CryptoCon_) September 11, 2023

This perspective aligns with a prevalent crypto community theory that marks November 28th as a quadrennial “bull run launch” for Bitcoin.

Featured image from iStock, Chart from TradingView

One coin that analysts seem to still be bullish on is Cardano’s native token ADA. However, despite all of the faith that remains in the digital asset, the price continues to tank and has fallen below multiple important support levels.

Analyst Goes Deep On Cardano

In an interview hosted by Altcoin Daily, crypto analyst Hashoshi shares very bullish views on the Cardano network. He starts out by explaining that the design decisions being made by the Cardano network have been some of the better ones in the space. Going further, Hashoshi lauds the development rate of protocols on the blockchain as projects continue to build.

“Cardano’s done things almost completely different from the start,” the analyst said. “They’re in a good position right now, despite what people might believe, to make a resurgence if the conditions are correct,” he further added.

For the price of ADA, the analyst explains that with liquidity coming back into the crypto space, the price of the digital asset could reach above its previous all-time high of $3.10.  “The community is still strong… and I think then you see them outstrip that previous all-time high.”

Hashoshi is not the only analyst bullish on the price of ADA going forward. Another analyst Kara Szabo has predicted that the price of the digital asset could climb to $5. Szabo also bought $20,000 worth of ADA at the start of September, signaling the analyst’s conviction on the altcoin’s bullish performance going forward.

“My conservative price estimate for the next bull run is $5,” Szabo said on X. “I know some people will think this is low, but this is a 20x from the current price!! For a large market cap alt, this very well may be one of the best plays in crypto at the current price point.”

Here is my in-depth #Cardano $ada price prediction for the upcoming bull market. This very well may be the best performing large market cap that investors are sleeping on:

Ada has a max supply of 45,000,000,000 tokens with approximately 35,045,020,830 of those tokens in… pic.twitter.com/k4Hs89q1lG

— Kara Szabo (@kararesurrect) September 9, 2023

But Why Is ADA Price Falling?

Despite the bullish sentiment that has enveloped the digital asset, the ADA price has continued to struggle in the market. The reason for this decline can be attributed to a significant amount of ADA being unstaked from smart contracts, causing the total staked ADA to slide downward.

Data from DeFi tracker DeFiLlama shows that the total tokens staked on the Cardano network dropped from above 777 million on September 2 to 733 million on September 11. This meant that over 43 million ADA were unstaked and likely made their way to the open market as these holders sold their stash.

Such a large amount being dumped into the market in a period of low liquidity could see the altcoin continue to drop, especially if more ADA is unstaked to be sold in the open market.

However, ADA’s long-term outlook remains bullish as the Cardano network remains one of the networks with the most developments taking place. As developers flock to the network, investors are expected to follow.

At the time of writing, ADA is struggling at $0.24, down 2.33% in the last day and 5.10% in the last week.

Bitcoin, the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency, is free-falling, looking at price action on September 11. From the daily chart, BTC is trading at $25,135, a marginal improvement after dropping to H2 2023 lows of $24,951 minutes earlier following an unexpected dump in the early trading hours of the New York trading session. 

The Bitcoin Sell-Off Takes Form

The crash on September 11 saw the coin drop below the consolidation of the past few trading days with the bearish breakdown, looking at price action, canceling bulls of August 31, and setting an increased selling pressure on August 17. The September 11 sell-off has seen a wide-ranging bear candlestick form.

Even though it continues to print, it has relatively high trading volume, indicating high participation levels. Since the bar has above-average volumes, BTC will likely edge lower in the direction defined by the conspicuous bear bar of August 17, when the coin fell 12%, forcing BTC to trend below the $28,700 support level.

Looking at price action, Bitcoin bears are in control and are actively reversing gains posted between June and July 2023. Then, Bitcoin prices rose from around the $20,000 level to as high as $31,800 by the end of July 2023.

Afterward, the coin peaked and began falling as talks of a spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) faded following the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision to put off their decision. 

At spot rates, Bitcoin is down 20% from July 2023 lows but trading at critical Fibonacci retracement levels of the June to July 2023 resistance levels. Even though BTC and crypto prices tend to post deep retracements, the coin may find support at around $25,000.

However, further losses from spot rates in continuation of the August 17 bear bar may see sellers press on rewind gains and force BTC towards June 2023 lows at around $20,000.

The Death Cross On The Bitcoin Chart

Based on technical candlestick arrangements, one analyst notes that the coin closed below the $25,600 mark after the close of last week’s bar. With this dip, the Ichimoku Cloud indicator has printed a “Death Cross.”

Technical analysts note that Bitcoin prices tend to dump when this pattern forms before eventually rebounding over several weeks. Previous instances of the “Death Cross” occurred in June 2021 and January 2022, which saw BTC drop 19% and 23%, respectively. 

Based on this, if a “Death Cross” prints, BTC may dump by 21%, forcing the coin back to the $20,000 level or June 2023 lows. Before then, BTC has to breach strong support levels at $25,600, $24,000, and $23,200 before retesting the $20,300 zone.

In a recent Monday court filing, it was disclosed that the estate of bankrupt crypto exchange FTX has amassed approximately $7 billion in assets (3.4B in crypto), including $1.16 billion worth of Solana (SOL) tokens and $560 million in Bitcoin (BTC). 

The news sent shockwaves through the cryptocurrency market, with SOL and BTC experiencing negative price movements.

SOL And BTC Experience Declines As FTX Prepares For Liquidation

Solana (SOL), trading around the $20 level on Sunday, witnessed a significant decline in response to the news. Its price plummeted to its current level of $17.83. Bitcoin (BTC) also retraced by over 2.7% in the past hours, reaching as low as $24,9000.

In addition to SOL and BTC, the court filing revealed other significant holdings of the FTX estate. These include Ethereum (ETH), valued at $192 million, Aptos (APT) at $137 million, Tether’s stablecoin (USDT) at $120 million, and XRP at $119 million, among others such as wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) and wrapped Ethereum (WETH), Bit (BIT), and Stargate Finance (STG).

The court filing further highlighted that the FTX estate had secured cash throughout the Chapter 11 process, employing a post-petition cash management system. The Debtors “successfully” navigated the Q1 2023 financial banking turmoil and obtained fiat from more than 30 banking institutions worldwide. 

Cash has been consolidated and safeguarded within a Master account, with unrestricted cash increasing primarily through venture investment monetization and stablecoin conversions.

This Wednesday, the FTX estate is expected to seek approval to liquidate approximately $3.4 billion of cryptocurrencies. This step marks a significant milestone in the bankruptcy proceedings.

Options For Relaunch?

On September 11, Fortune Magazine reported that the FTX estate had approached over 75 potential bidders, evaluating the possibility of relaunching the bankrupt crypto exchange. 

The stakeholders were given a deadline of September 24 to submit their proposals for “FTX 2.0.” The process considers various potential structures, including acquisition, merger, recapitalization, or other transactions to relaunch FTX.com and/or FTX US exchanges.

While the specific identities of the bidders remain undisclosed, blockchain technology company Figure and venture capital firm Tribe Capital have been previously mentioned as potential suitors for the relaunch. 

The exploration of FTX’s relaunch represents a key development in the effort to sell off, rebrand, or restart the exchange, which has been at the center of a high-profile white-collar criminal case.

FTX’s native token, FTT, has experienced positive price movement on news of the potential launch of FTX 2.0. On Monday, it traded nearly 17% higher than at the beginning of the year, reflecting market optimism surrounding the prospect of a relaunch.

As the bankruptcy proceedings unfold and the FTX estate moves towards liquidation, the crypto industry will closely monitor the impact on the market and the resolution of outstanding debts. 

The search for bidders to revive the exchange introduces an additional layer of complexity to this evolving situation, with potential implications for the future of FTX and its stakeholders.

Overall, the bankruptcy of the failed crypto exchange has revealed substantial asset holdings of $7 billion, including significant amounts of Solana (SOL) and Bitcoin (BTC). The subsequent market reactions and the quest for bidders to relaunch the exchange have brought further uncertainty to the crypto landscape. 

The outcome of the bankruptcy proceedings and the relaunch efforts will shape the future trajectory of FTX and its position within the industry.

Featured image from iStock, charts from TradingView.com 

Former CEO Faruk Fatih Özer of the bankrupt Turkish crypto exchange Thodex has been given a record-breaking prison sentence for stealing $2 billion in customer funds.

Crypto CEO Sentenced To 11,196 Years Prison Sentence

On Thursday, September 7, 2023, the former CEO of Thodex, which was one of the biggest cryptocurrency exchanges in Turkey, was reportedly sentenced to 11,196 years, 10 months, and 15 days in prison for several criminal charges including fraud, leading a criminal organization, and money laundering by the Anatolian 9th Heavy Penal Court.

The former CEO reportedly defrauded over 400,000 Turkish customers of more than $2 billion in deposits when the exchange went offline in April 2021, and Özer fled the country immediately after the exchange went offline.

The prosecutors had initially requested a 40,562-year prison sentence for the former crypto exchange CEO. However, the final verdict saw the sentence reduced to 11,196 years, the longest sentence so far for a crypto crime. Furthermore, a judicial fine of 135 million Liras was also imposed on the former CEO, according to local media.

Faruk Fatih Özer was not the only one involved in the alleged crime. Following the investigation, 83 people were arrested and detained, and four other senior employees were jailed.

When the case was thoroughly investigated, Özer‘s sister Serap Özer, and brother Guven Özer, were also found guilty of the same charges and were given the same prison sentence respectively.

Although these jail terms may seem outrageous and unfamiliar to many, they are very common in Turkey due to the country’s death sentence eradication since 2004. In 2022, TV cult preacher Adnan Oktar was convicted of fraud and sexual assault and was sentenced to 8,658 years in prison along with 10 of his followers. 

Former Thodex Boss Denies Criminal Claims

The 29-year-old former crypto boss was arrested in Albania in August 2022 where he was serving jail terms after fleeing Turkey in April 2021 when his crypto exchange first collapsed. 

Before his arrest, Özer denied claims against him fleeing the country intentionally when the Thodex exchange went dark. His response to the allegations was that he was out of the country because of business meetings. 

Özer was arrested after Interpol issued a red notice against him, and was extradited back to Turkey in April 2023 to face the charges against him. He was then detained by the police upon arrival and held on seven charges. 

Some of the charges included establishing and managing an organization with the purpose of committing a crime, fraud by using information systems as a tool of banks or credit institutions, being a member of an organization, fraud of merchants or company executives and cooperative managers, and laundering the value of assets resulting from crime, among others.

The court believed that Özer had fraudulent intentions right from the beginning and that the crypto exchange Thodex was a criminal organization from the start.

However, Özer denied these claims against him and said Thodex was just a crypto company that went bankrupt in 2021 and had no fraudulent intention. He also told the court that he was very smart and he would not have acted so amateurish if he was looking to be a criminal.