Blockchain

Tron price is showing positive signs above $0.080 against the US Dollar. TRX is outperforming Bitcoin and could start another increase toward $0.10.

Tron is moving higher above the $0.0800 pivot level against the US dollar.
The price is trading above $0.080 and the 100 simple moving average (4 hours).
There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near $0.0780 on the 4-hour chart of the TRX/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
The pair could continue to climb higher toward $0.085 or even $0.095.

Tron Price Surges Further

In the last Tron price analysis, we discussed the chances of more gains in TRX against the US Dollar. TRX formed a base above the $0.0770 level and started another increase.

There was a clear move above the $0.080 resistance zone, outperforming Bitcoin. The price even cleared the $0.082 level. A high is formed near $0.0828 and the price is now correcting gains below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $0.0770 swing low to the $0.0828 high.

TRX is now trading above $0.080 and the 100 simple moving average (4 hours). There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near $0.0780 on the 4-hour chart of the TRX/USD pair.

Source: TRXUSD on TradingView.com

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the $0.0815 level. The first major resistance is near $0.0828, above which the price could accelerate higher. The next resistance is near $0.085. A close above the $0.085 resistance might send TRX further higher. The next major resistance is near the $0.092 level, above which the bulls are likely to aim a larger increase toward the key $0.10 zone in the coming days.

Are Dips Supported in TRX?

If TRX price fails to clear the $0.0815 resistance, it could slowly move lower. Initial support on the downside is near the $0.080 zone. The first major support is near the $0.0792 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $0.0770 swing low to the $0.0828 high.

The next support is near $0.0780 or the trend line, below which the price could accelerate lower. The next major support is $0.0755.

Technical Indicators

4 hours MACD – The MACD for TRX/USD is losing momentum in the bullish zone.

4 hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for TRX/USD is currently above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $0.080, $0.0792, and $0.0780.

Major Resistance Levels – $0.0815, $0.0828, and $0.092.

Bitcoin price struggled again near the $26,500 resistance. BTC is forming a double-top pattern and could revisit the $25,000 support zone.

Bitcoin recovered above $26,000 but struggled to clear $26,500.
The price is trading above $25,800 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
There is a short-term contracting triangle forming with resistance near $26,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
The pair could start another decline if it breaks the $25,550 support zone.

Bitcoin Price Faces Uphill Task

Bitcoin price started a decent increase above the $26,000 resistance zone. BTC climbed above the $26,200 resistance level but the bears were again active near the $26,500 resistance.

The price failed to settle above the $26,500 resistance level. A high was formed near $26,528 and the price started a downside correction. It seems like there is a double-top pattern forming near the $26,500 zone. The price is now trading below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $24,925 swing low to the $26,528 high.

However, Bitcoin is now trading above $25,800 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Besides, there is a short-term contracting triangle forming with resistance near $26,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $26,000 level. The first major resistance is near the $26,200 level. The main resistance is near the $26,500 level. A proper close above the $26,500 level might start a decent increase. The next major resistance is near $27,200, above which the bulls could gain strength. In the stated case, the price could test the $28,000 level.

Another Decline In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to start a fresh increase above the $26,000 resistance, it could continue to move down. Immediate support on the downside is near the $25,800 level.

The next major support is near the $25,550 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $24,925 swing low to the $26,528 high. A downside break and close below the $25,550 level might call for more downsides. In the stated case, the price could drop toward $25,000 or even $24,800.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now near the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $25,800, followed by $25,550.

Major Resistance Levels – $26,000, $26,200, and $26,500.

Prominent cryptocurrency XRP remains among the major talking points in crypto over the last few months. Following Ripple’s partial victory over the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in July, analysts have continued to weigh in on XRP’s future, mostly predicting a bullish price trajectory for the altcoin.

In the latest development, a crypto analyst, EGRAG CRYPTO on X, predicts that XRP could be set for massive gains in 2024 based on historical price data. 

XRP To Repeat Price Rally In 2024?

According to an X post on September 12, EGRAG CRYPTO describes XRP as possessing “incredible potential.” Using data from the altcoin chart on Tradingview, the analyst projects a possible market gain of 2500% in 2024.

EGRAG CRYPTO’s bullish prediction on XRP is based on the token’s price history. Between 2016 and 2018, XRP embarked on a strong bullish run upon forming a symmetrical triangle pattern, which appears again on the token’s monthly chart.

#XRP Only 2500%:

If you can’t see the incredible potential of #XRP in the chart below, especially when breaking through MYTL, then I’m afraid there’s little more I can do to convince you.#XRPArmy STAY STEADY and do not forget that we have clarity for GOD’s sake. pic.twitter.com/S1097h4ujS

— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) September 12, 2023

For context, a symmetrical triangle chart pattern represents a period of consolidation that can result in either a price breakout or a breakdown. If the bullish prediction holds, the XRP token could experience a similar price breakout as in previous times.

In line with EGRAG CRYPTO’s prediction, Sharon Thorp, a crypto analyst and business development executive at Wells Fargo, recently forecasted that XRP could trade at $500 in 2027. 

This prediction is based on the anticipated growth of the cross-border payment industry, which is expected to reach $250 trillion in valuation by 2027.

However, while these predictions may encourage the XRP community, they are individual speculations and should not be considered financial advice.

Pain Before Gain?

Although there may be a bullish sentiment towards XRP’s potential adoption in the coming years, some analysts believe the token could struggle in the remainder of 2023. 

According to a recent X post by a pro-XRP analyst, Jungle Inc 2.0, the rest of 2023 does not bode well for XRP or the general crypto market. The crypto analyst hinges this prediction on “tough financial times” marked by increasing interest rates by the US Federal Reserve.

Furthermore, investors should remember that Ripple remains in court with the SEC. The US securities watchdog recently submitted a petition urging the court to approve its request to appeal the recent ruling in its case against Ripple.

At the time of writing, XRP trades at $0.4805, dipping by 4.32% in the last week. Meanwhile, the altcoin remains the fifth-largest cryptocurrency with a market cap value of $25.46 billion.

Trading volumes associated with CRV, the governance token of Curve, a stablecoin decentralized exchange (DEX), is down 97% barely two months after it was hacked in late July 2023. According to Kaiko, CRV’s trading volume in centralized exchanges, especially Binance, where the token is actively traded, fell from nearly $300 million in late July to $7 million as of September 12. 

Trackers show that CRV is available for trading in multiple centralized and decentralized exchanges, including Binance, Uniswap, and Curve. However, considering the popularity and liquidity standing of Binance, most CRV trading was concentrated on the world’s popular crypto exchange.

To illustrate, Binance’s share of CRV trading is about 20% when writing, while Bitbox is next with a dominance of around 7%. 

Curve’s TVL, Price, And Trading Volumes Collapse

In crypto, a drop in trading volume often indicates waning interest in a digital asset or general caution practiced by investors. With falling volume, the asset’s liquidity takes a hit as traders or investors opt out, even liquidating the coin as they choose stability and refuge. Sometimes, they can adopt a wait-and-see approach, evaluating how the token will react in light of changing market conditions. 

According to DeFiLlama, Curve has a total value locked (TVL) of approximately $2.17 billion, down from $3.25 billion when the protocol was hacked. The decline in TVL and trading volumes comes amid the general lull in the decentralized finance (DeFi) scene.

The drop in CRV valuation and trading volumes was worsened by the July exploit, which saw the protocol lose over $50 million worth of assets. Although Curve recovered most of those funds, the effect of the exploit called into question the general state of security.

The Hack And Erogov’s CRV Disposal

In the July hack, malicious actors exploited various Curve stablecoin pools using older versions of Vyper, a programming language used to create smart contracts on Ethereum. All Curve’s pools are automated, and this feature allowed hackers to drain multiple pools through a re-entrancy attack. 

CRV reacted to this hack by dropping, falling sharply on July 30 from around $0.74 to $0.48. It has since exceeded halved, crashing to $0.40, a new 2023 low. 

During this time, Curve’s CEO, Michael Egorov, had to sell CRV holdings he had used to back his loans via over-the-counter (OTC) to entities and individuals such as Justin Sun when prices started falling. Egorov had taken out loans on Aave and Frax Finance secured by CRV. 

Bitcoin (BTC) has welcomed another noteworthy decision from the global investment firm Franklin Templeton. With a portfolio spanning various financial instruments, the company is now setting its sights on one of the most sought-after financial products in the digital currency realm: a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).

This development signifies the firm’s progressive stance on digital assets and underscores the increasing mainstream acceptance of cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin. Following the news, BTC has surged 4.2% in the past day, breaking above $26,000, as of this writing. 

Details Of The Franklin Spot BTC ETF

Based on recent filings, the proposed offering has been dubbed the “Franklin Bitcoin ETF.” One of the fundamental characteristics of this ETF would be its primary assets—essentially constituted of Bitcoin.

Coinbase Custody Trust Company, a subsidiary of one of the world’s leading cryptocurrency exchange platforms, will serve as these assets’ custodians.

Such a collaboration could provide the proposed fund an extra layer of credibility and security, given Coinbase’s longstanding reputation in the crypto space.

Another critical aspect to consider is the chosen trading platform. If the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approves, Franklin Templeton’s Bitcoin ETF will see its shares being traded on the Cboe BZX Exchange.

In determining Bitcoin’s pricing, the filing indicates a reliance on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) CF Bitcoin Reference Rate, specifically the New York Variant.

Bitcoin Begins Rally After Bouncing Off $24,900

Following the Franklin Templeton spot Bitcoin ETF filing disclosure, Bitcoin has shown signs of recovery. The top crypto experienced a slight surge, breaking the downward trend that had dominated the market in recent weeks.

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has surged by nearly 3%, trading for $26,185 as of this writing. Particularly, the asset broke away from the stagnant price zone of around $25,000 observed over the past week.  

Complementing its price movement, Bitcoin’s trading volume experienced a significant uptick. A comparison reveals that while the trading volume was as low as $1.7 billion last Wednesday, it increased to $18.4 billion in the past 24 hours.

Notably, the financial industry’s anticipation for the first-ever spot crypto ETF is palpable. Franklin Templeton’s decision, while bold and promising, enters a domain where the SEC has shown consistent reticence.

Over the last month, the regulatory body decided to postpone its decisions concerning proposals for spot Bitcoin ETFs. This delay can be attributed to the SEC’s current process of sifting through the influx of recent applications in this category. There hasn’t been a single spot crypto ETF that has secured the SEC’s endorsement.

Featured image from iStock, Chart from TradingView

Data shows the Bitcoin market sentiment has worsened recently and is approaching extreme fear territory.

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Has Plunged Inside The Fear Region Recently

The “fear and greed index” is a Bitcoin indicator that tells us about the general sentiment among the investors in the Bitcoin and broader cryptocurrency market. This metric uses a numeric scale from zero to a hundred to represent this sentiment.

When the index has a value greater than 54, the investors share greed. On the other hand, values under 46 imply the presence of fear in the market. The in-between region naturally suggests that the majority mentality is neutral currently.

Here is what the Bitcoin fear and greed index looks like right now:

As displayed above, the Bitcoin fear and greed index currently has a value of 30, meaning that most investors in the sector share a mentality of fear.

Just yesterday, the indicator had a value of 40, implying that the sentiment has worsened quite a bit during the past day.

Besides the three core sentiments already discussed, there are also “extreme fear” and “extreme greed.” These two regions of the indicator have been pretty significant historically for the cryptocurrency.

The reason is that extreme fear occurs at and under 25 when the major bottoms have formed for the asset’s price. Similarly, the tops have occurred in extreme greed (at and above 75).

Bitcoin has generally tended to go against what most investors expect. The extreme regions are when this expectation is the strongest, hence why a reversal occurred.

A trading technique called “contrarian investing” exploits this apparent pattern. Warren Buffet’s famous quote says, “be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”

The current value of the index (30) is quite close to the extreme fear region, which means that if sentiment worsens further in the coming days, it might drop into this territory. Naturally, if such a drop happens, a contrarian investor might take it as a signal to buy the cryptocurrency.

Interestingly, if Bitcoin bottoms out in the coming weeks and sets itself up for a reversal, it would align with the historical Halloween Effect. According to this effect, BTC and other assets usually perform the best between 31 October and 1 May.

Those who practice the “sell in May and go away” strategy come back this season to buy back into the asset. It remains to be seen how the Bitcoin sentiment will develop in the coming month and if the Halloween Effect will play any role.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $26,200, up 1% during the past week.

Institution crypto investors have been pulling out of the market for the better part of this year, especially as the bear market has taken hold. However, Ethereum has suffered way more than other assets in this regard with outflows dragging total assets under management (AuM) down. This comes as Ethereum has struggled after falling below the $1,600 support.

Institutional Investors Pull Out Of Ethereum

In the latest iteration of its Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report, alternative asset manager CoinShares has revealed a growing aversion from institutional investors toward Ethereum.

This is characterized by a tremendous amount of outflows spanning months that has caused its asset under management to decline faster than any other crypto asset.

The outflow trend also continued into last week as a total of $4.8 million flowed out of Ethereum funds. According to CoinShares, this brings the total year-to-date outflows for the digital asset to $108 million. This figure also represents 1.6% of Ethereum’s total assets under management, the largest percentage of outflows of any asset.

This trend points to a waning interest in Ethereum from institutional investors. It is even more glaring given that altcoins such as XRP saw inflows of $0.7 million as investors pulled out of Ethereum.

The asset manager put forward that this means that Ethereum is “the least loved digital asset amongst ETP investors this year.”

Bitcoin Not Left Out

While Ethereum has undoubtedly not been a favorite of institutional investors, it was not the only large cryptocurrency plagued by outflows last week. Bitcoin, once again, saw the largest outflow volumes for the week with $69 million leaving Bitcoin funds. This is in contrast to short Bitcoin which saw a 5-month high weekly inflow of $15 million.

Blockchain equities also suffered from another week of outflows totaling $10.8 million this time around. In total, the current run of outflows has seen $294 million leave crypto and blockchain-related funds, accounting for 0.9% of the total assets under management.

This bearish sentiment among institutional investors is also highlighted by the fact that trading volumes saw a massive decline. The asset manager reported that volumes were just $754 million for last week, a 73% drop from the previous week’s figures.

Despite last week’s negative sentiment, this week seems to be working out better for the top assets with Bitcoin and Ethereum seeing trading volumes on crypto exchanges jump 96.28% and 41.16%, respectively. This could be signaling a coming reversal after a rocky weekend.

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has defied expectations of a steep decline to sub-$20,000 levels and has rebounded to the $26,000 mark, registering a 3.5% gain over the past 24 hours. 

This resurgence in Bitcoin’s price coincides with the predictions made by Chartered Financial Analyst Timothy Peterson, whose recent social media post outlined the probabilities of Bitcoin dropping to $22,600 or rallying to $31,200 within the next 90 days.

Bitcoin Price Analysis, 8% Chance Of Drop To $22,600

Peterson’s analysis indicates an 8% likelihood of Bitcoin experiencing a downward movement to $22,600, while a 71% chance of the cryptocurrency surging to $31,200. 

According to the chart above, Bitcoin’s price will likely enter a macro consolidation phase over the next 90 days. During this period, the price may fluctuate within the range of its key Moving Averages (MAs).

However, the crucial factor for bullish investors is the low probability of a drop below $22,000. This allows them to regain control of the 50-day and 200-day MAs in the short term, currently positioned at $27,200 and $27,000, respectively.

The recent recovery of Bitcoin to the $26,000 level has alleviated concerns among market participants who were apprehensive about a potential downward spiral. The cryptocurrency’s ability to bounce back has instilled renewed confidence among investors.

Nevertheless, Bitcoin faces a series of resistance levels that could pose challenges. In the immediate term, resistance at $26,454 has temporarily halted the cryptocurrency’s upward momentum.

As mentioned earlier, Bitcoin lost its key MAs in August, resulting in additional obstacles on its journey back to $30,000. However, if these resistance levels are surpassed, there remains only one more hurdle before the cryptocurrency can surpass its annual high zone. 

This final resistance stands at $29,800, which has historically proven to be a formidable barrier whenever Bitcoin has aimed to achieve new highs.

Imminent Final Decline Expected?

As the market approaches the final weeks of Q3 and edges closer to the new year, QCP Capital, an analysis firm, has been closely monitoring the market using two critical blueprints: the supermoon cycle and the Elliot Wave count. According to their analysis, an imminent final decline is expected to close the quarter at its lows.

The chart above illustrates the projected decline, aligning with QCP Capital’s blueprints. The firm believes that the crypto and macro events calendar also supports this view, with a concentration of upcoming bearish events expected to transition to a neutral stance from mid-October onwards.

Notable future events include tomorrow’s likely higher-than-expected CPI (Consumer Price Index) data and a more hawkish-than-expected Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week. 

Additionally, asset sales of FTX tokens and the conclusion of the Mt. Gox proceedings over the next month contribute to the bearish sentiment.

Although QCP Capital’s theory suggests a potential bottom soon after the supermoon early next month, they anticipate the true bottom to materialize in mid-late October when the negative news cycle has run its course. They expect the market to stabilize during this time and potentially reverse its downward trend.

Despite the short-term challenges, QCP Capital remains bullish on the overall outlook. They anticipate a positive trajectory from mid-late October, extending into year-end and Q1 of the following year.

BTC is currently trading at $26,100, reflecting a 3.5% increase over the past 24 hours and a gain of over 1.5% in the past seven days.

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com

In a completely unexpected move, Justin Sun, Founder of Tron and Advisor to Huobi Global has expressed his interest in acquiring FTX’s considerable crypto assets worth billions of dollars. 

Justin Sun Considers Making A Bid For FTX Crypto Assets

Justin Sun, Creator of Tron, one of the world’s largest blockchain ecosystems, has hinted at the possibility of acquiring the assets of insolvent crypto exchange FTX. This statement comes a year after the crypto billionaire was contemplating a majority takeover of Huobi Global. 

According to data from Messari, a provider of market intelligence products, FTX liquidations hold a total of $1.3 billion in liquid crypto assets excluding stablecoins. The report revealed some of the largest holdings for FTX liquidators which include cryptocurrencies like Solana (SOL), Ethereum (ETH), Aptos (APT), Dogecoin (DOGE), Tron (TRX), and Polygon (MATIC).

Given the considerable holdings, there have been fears that the market could witness a crash if the exchange were to start dumping its crypto assets. In response to this, Sun revealed in a post on X (formerly known as Twitter) that he was considering the possibility of purchasing FTX holdings.

The Tron Founder explained that the reason behind it was to reduce their selling influence on the crypto market. 

“Contemplating an offer for FTX’s holding tokens and assets to reduce their selling impact on the crypto community. Let’s unite to bolster our crypto ecosystem,” Sun stated. 

However, data from Messari revealed that FTX and Alameda’s BTC holdings, which are approximately $353 million, account for only 1% of BTC’s weekly trading volume, meaning the crypto market can easily handle selling impacts. 

Whereas, FTX’s crypto holdings such as DOGE, TRX, and MATIC which range from $20 million to $30 million account for 6-12% of weekly trading volumes, and liquidations could significantly impact the crypto market. 

Most of FTX’s SOL are also locked up in Alameda and FTX ventures, and they have a unique liquidation pattern, which allows only $9.2 million SOL to be unlocked every month. This monthly liquidation system allows selling impacts of FTX’s Solana holdings to be easily managed. 

FTX Insolvency Court Case Still Ongoing

On November 11, 2022, FTX and a number of its affiliates filed for bankruptcy in Delaware, United States. At the time, the exchange owed a staggering $8 billion after it collapsed due to a liquidity crisis. 

The crypto exchange is currently under investigation by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) while its Founder and CEO, Sam Bankman Fried was charged on 13 accounts for alleged illegal proceedings he performed in FTX, five of which were later withdrawn in June. 

FTX liquidators are currently scheduled for a hearing on Wednesday, September 13. The result of the hearing may see the liquidators given clearance to begin liquidations immediately. 

A recent court filing has also revealed that the bankrupt crypto exchange still holds assets worth $7 billion. Some of these assets include digital assets, venture investments, and reclaimed properties.

Arbitrum has managed to maintain its place amongst the top names in decentralized finance (DeFi) despite the unfavorable conditions gripping the space in 2023. However, the price of ARB (the network’s native token), met with a euphoric welcome in March, has been struggling.

The Arbitrum token’s price tumbled to a new historical low of $0.747217 on Monday, the 11th of September, with its honeymoon phase seemingly over. The token’s value dipped by more than 12% in the past week, leaving investors wondering what could be behind this bearish movement.

Whales Part With Millions Of ARB Token In Selling Spree

ARB’s latest price downturn has been associated with the increased market activity of Arbitrum whales in the past few days. On Monday, crypto journalist Colin Wu reported that three whales transferred 10.23 million ARB (worth about $8 million) to Binance.

The first whale reportedly sold 3.8 million ARB at $0.77 per token, while the second whale – with the pseudonym vladilena2.eth – sold 3.63 million ARB at $0.83 per token. Meanwhile, the third whale moved 2.8 million ARB for $0.79 per token.

This seeming loss of interest from whales may have precipitated the downward pressure that pushed Arbitrum to a new all-time low. Unfortunately, there appears to be no end, as whales have continued to dump their ARB tokens in the last few hours.

According to a Lookonchain report, seven whales have dumped 20.41 million ARB tokens (valued at about $16.05 million) in the last 30 hours. The blockchain analytics platform revealed that these whales generated a total loss of $8.15 million.

It is worth noting that general market sentiment may have also contributed to ARB’s price performance. As of this writing, the Arbitrum native token is valued at $0.781039, according to CoinGecko data. 

Other Possible Reasons For Arbitrum Price Decline

Another plausible reason for ARB’s recent price downturn is the dwindling activity on the Arbitrum network. While the chain continues to hold its own as a prominent L2 network, it has been experiencing a steady decline in total value locked (TVL).

According to DefiLlama data, Arbitrum has a total value of $1.65 billion in assets locked on its network, reflecting a more than 35% decline in the past four months. This current figure also represents the network’s lowest TVL since March.

The sustained decrease in total value locked suggests a loss of investor confidence, which could discourage participants from onboarding the network. 

Recent governance proposals are another factor that may have contributed to the latest fall in Arbitrum price. Notably, PlutusDAO introduced a proposal on September 9 seeking to return tokens from the DAO treasury to ARB holders.

If approved, the governance proposal would involve activating a staking mechanism and the creation of native yield for participants, which could see the annual release of up to 2% of the total token supply. Some investors view this proposal as inflationary, as it would likely exert downward pressure on the price of Arbitrum. 

Ultimately, ARB’s latest market performance appears to result from a combination of loss of investor interest, dwindling network activity, and unsatisfactory governance mechanisms.