Blockchain

Bitcoin has been trending up since hitting a local low below $25,000 on September 11th. Yesterday’s rally to $27,435 marked a 10% increase from the recent low. As NewsBTC reported, the rally was largely led by the futures market and a massive increase in open interest of over $1 billion, more than half of which was flushed out when BTC fell back below $27,000. Despite this, BTC is up around 7.5% from last week’s low. A reason to be bullish?

Glassnode Report Sheds Light On Market Sentiment

According to Glassnode, the Realized HODL Ratio (RHODL) serves as a crucial market sentiment indicator. It measures the balance between investments in recently moved coins (those held for less than a week) and those in the hands of longer-term HODLers (held for 1-2 years). The RHODL Ratio for the year 2023 is flirting with the 2-year median level. While this indicates a modest influx of new investors, the momentum behind this shift remains relatively weak.

Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score further elaborates on this trend. It shows that the current recovery rally of 2023 has been significantly influenced by investor FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), with noticeable accumulation patterns around local price tops exceeding $30,000. This behavior contrasts sharply with the latter half of 2022, where newer market entrants showed resilience by accumulating Bitcoin at lower price levels.

The Realized Profit and Loss indicators also reveal a complex picture. These metrics measure the value change of spent coins by comparing the acquisition price with the disposal price. In 2023, periods of intense coin accumulation were often accompanied by elevated levels of profit-taking. This pattern, which Glassnode describes as a “confluence,” is similar to market behavior seen in peak periods of 2021.

An assessment of Short-Term Holders (STH) uncovers a precarious situation. A staggering majority, more than 97.5% of the supply procured by these newcomers, is currently operating at a loss, levels unseen since the infamous FTX debacle. Using the STH-MVRV and STH-SOPR metrics, which quantify the magnitude of unrealized and realized profits or losses, Glassnode elucidates the extreme financial pressures recent investors have grappled with.

Market Confidence Remains Low

The report also delves into the realm of market confidence. A close examination of the divergence between the cost basis of two investor subgroups — spenders and holders — offers an indication of prevailing market sentiment. As the market reeled from the price plummet from $29k to $26k in mid-August, an overwhelmingly negative sentiment was evident. This was manifested as the cost basis of spenders fell sharply below that of holders, a clear signal of prevalent market panic.

To offer a clearer visualization, Glassnode has normalized this metric in relation to the spot price. A crucial observation is the cyclical nature of negative sentiment during bear market recovery phases, usually lasting between 1.5 to 3.5 months. The market recently plunged into its first negative sentiment phase since 2022’s conclusion.

Currently, the trend lasts 20 days, which could mean that the end has not yet been marked by the recent rally, if history repeats itself. However, if there is a sustained bounce back into positive territory, it could be indicative of renewed capital inflow, signifying a return to a more favorable stance for Bitcoin holders.

In conclusion, Glassnode’s on-chain data reveals a Bitcoin market that is currently in a state of flux. Although 2023 has seen new capital entering the market, the influx lacks strong momentum. Market sentiment, especially among short-term holders, is decidedly bearish. These findings indicate that caution remains the watchword, with underlying market sentiment offering mixed signals about the sustainability of the current Bitcoin rally.

At press time, BTC traded at $26,846 after being rejected at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (at $27,369) in the 4-hour chart.

Solana (SOL) has captured the attention of former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal, who recently declared it one of his standout altcoin choices and a potential contender to Ethereum’s dominance.

In a new interview, Pal highlighted Solana’s unique strengths, emphasizing its unrivaled speed and performance, qualities that have even prompted payments giant Visa to choose it as their platform of choice.

Pal unveiled his enthusiasm for SOL, dubbing it one of his foremost altcoin choices and a contender for the most promising project outside of Ethereum. The crypto luminary also shed light on the growing influence of Solana’s co-founder, Anatoly Yakovenko, popularly known as Toly, in the cryptocurrency landscape.

Pal’s bullish stance on Solana stems from its speed and exceptional performance, characteristics that have garnered attention even from giants like Visa. 

Pal said:

“So, why is Visa using Solana? Because it’s fast. It’s fast, and it does a good job.”

This sentiment represents the distinctiveness of Solana in comparison to Ethereum and hints at the potential for interconnectivity between these blockchain ecosystems. Visa’s recent announcement of its foray into stablecoin settlement capabilities on Solana further bolsters its credibility in the industry.

Solana: Recent Market Performance And Outlook

Despite Pal’s optimistic outlook, the charts tell a different story for Solana. On August 5th, SOL experienced a bearish market structure as its price plummeted below the crucial $22.73 support level. Subsequently, in mid-August, the cryptocurrency endured a sharp decline, witnessing a staggering 23.8% drop from its recent peak.

Prevailing Bearish Momentum 

As of now, Solana remains in the grip of this downtrend, with its market structure yet to show signs of a reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) lingers below the critical 50-point mark, underscoring the prevailing bearish momentum. A pivotal line of defense for the bulls is the 78.6% retracement level at $16.94.

According to analysts, a test of this support level could offer a viable buying opportunity, potentially targeting local highs at $25.5, $29, and an ambitious $32. However, a dip below the $15.5-mark would invalidate any hopes of a bullish reversal at the 78.6% retracement level.

Market Statistics

At the time of reporting, SOL was trading at $19.84 at CoinGecko, reflecting a 3.7% gain in the past 24 hours. Over the course of the previous seven days, SOL had exhibited a commendable rally of 12.5%.

In contrast, Ether (ETH) was priced at $1,637.25, marking a modest 0.3% increase within the past 24 hours. Over the same seven-day period, ETH had recorded gains of 5.5%.

(This site’s content should not be construed as investment advice. Investing involves risk. When you invest, your capital is subject to risk).

Featured image from Britannica

Ripple’s token price is rising above $0.50 against the US Dollar. XRP price could start a fresh rally if it clears the $0.515 and $0.525 resistance levels.

Ripple’s token price is attempting a move above $0.515 and $0.525 against the US dollar.
The price is now trading above $0.500 and the 100 simple moving average (4 hours).
There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near $0.500 on the 4-hour chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
The pair might gain bullish momentum if there is a close above $0.515.

Ripple’s Token Price Could Accelerate Above $0.515

In the last XRP price prediction, we discussed a possible upward move in Ripple’s XRP against the US Dollar. The price did follow a positive path above the $0.480 pivot level, like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

There was a clear move above the $0.50 resistance zone. It climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the $0.5491 swing high to the $0.4590 low. The bulls are now attempting more gains above the $0.515 resistance.

XRP is now trading above $0.500 and the 100 simple moving average (4 hours). Besides, there is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near $0.500 on the 4-hour chart of the XRP/USD pair.

On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $0.515 level. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the $0.5491 swing high to the $0.4590 low.  The next major resistance is near the $0.5250 level. A close above the $0.525 level could send the price toward the $0.550 barrier.

Source: XRPUSD on TradingView.com

A successful break above the $0.550 resistance level might start a strong rally toward the $0.585 resistance. Any more gains might call for a test of the $0.600 resistance.

Are Dips Limited in XRP?

If ripple fails to clear the $0.515 resistance zone, it could start a downside correction. Initial support on the downside is near the $0.50 zone and the trend line.

The next major support is at $0.490. If there is a downside break and a close below the $0.490 level, XRP’s price could extend losses. In the stated case, the price could retest the $0.458 support zone.

Technical Indicators

4-Hours MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone.

4-Hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $0.500, $0.490, and $0.458.

Major Resistance Levels – $0.515, $0.525, and $0.550.

Ethereum price climbed above $1,650 but failed to surpass $1,670 against the US Dollar. ETH trimmed gains and now consolidating near the $1,630 zone.

Ethereum struggled to clear the $1,670 resistance.
The price is trading above $1,630 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $1,628 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
The pair must stay above the $1,620 support zone to start a fresh increase in the short term.

Ethereum Price Revisits Support

Ethereum’s price started a decent increase above the $1,620 resistance. ETH even climbed above the $1,650 resistance before the bears appeared, like Bitcoin.

During the increase, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $1,628 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. However, the bears defended the $1,670 resistance. A high was formed near $1,669 and the price started a downside correction.

There was a move below the $1,650 level. The price declined below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,613 swing low to the $1,669 high.

Ether is now trading above $1,630 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. It is also trading near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,613 swing low to the $1,669 high. On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $1,650 level.

Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

The next resistance is near the $1,670 level. A close above the $1,670 resistance might send the price toward the $1,720 resistance. The next major hurdle is near the $1,750 level. A close above the $1,750 level might send Ethereum further higher toward $1,880 in the coming days.

More Losses in ETH?

If Ethereum fails to clear the $1,650 resistance, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $1,630 level and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.

The first key support is close to $1,620. The next key support is $1,600. A downside break below $1,600 might start another bearish wave. In the stated case, the price could even decline toward the $1,540 level in the near term.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is losing momentum in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $1,620

Major Resistance Level – $1,670

Bitcoin price climbed higher and tested the $27,500 resistance. BTC is correcting gains, but it could start another increase unless there is a move below $26,500.

Bitcoin is holding gains above the $26,500 support level.
The price is trading above $26,550 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $26,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
The pair could start another increase if it stays above the $26,500 support zone.

Bitcoin Price Eyes Another Increase

Bitcoin price remained in a positive zone above the $26,200 resistance zone. BTC started a fresh increase and cleared the $26,500 resistance zone.

There was a strong push above the $27,000 level before the bears appeared near $27,500. A high was formed near $27,468 and the price recently corrected gains. There was a drop below the $27,000 level. The price declined below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $26,412 swing low to the $27,468 high.

Bitcoin is now trading above $26,550 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near $26,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

The price is now holding the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $26,412 swing low to the $27,468 high. It is consolidating gains and might eye a fresh increase. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $26,950 level.

The first major resistance is near the $27,500 zone, above which the price could gain pace. The next key resistance could be near the $28,200 level. A clear move above the $28,200 resistance could send the price toward the $29,000 resistance.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The next major resistance is near $29,500, above which the bulls could gain strength. In the stated case, the price could test the $30,000 level.

More Downsides In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to start a fresh increase above the $26,950 resistance, it could continue to move lower. Immediate support on the downside is near the $26,600 level and the trend line.

The next major support is near the $26,500 level. A downside break and close below the $26,500 level might send the price toward the next support at $26,000.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now near the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $26,600, followed by $26,500.

Major Resistance Levels – $26,950, $27,200, and $27,500.

Blockchain Capital, a venture capital company founded by Bart Stephens and Brad Stephens in 2013, has successfully closed two new funds, raising a total of $580 million. 

The firm’s general partner, Spencer Bogart, confirmed the news to TechCrunch, stating that the funds consist of a sixth early-stage fund and the firm’s first “opportunity fund.” 

Approximately two-thirds of the $580 million will be allocated to the early-stage fund, while the remaining one-third will be dedicated to the opportunity fund.

Blockchain Capital Raise For Two New Crypto Funds

Per the report, the sixth early-stage fund, valued at $380 million, will primarily focus on investing in newer companies and protocols during pre-seed and Series A funding rounds. On this matter, Spencer Bogart claimed: 

It’s doing more of what we’ve been doing for the past decade. This is our bread and butter, and we wanted to stay aligned with LPs [and] think about prior fund sizes, but still grow a bit.

On the other hand, the $200 million opportunity fund will target late-stage investments starting from Series B and onward. This strategic allocation reflects the firm’s intention to continue supporting early-stage projects while also capitalizing on promising opportunities in the later stages of development.

The funds will be deployed across six sectors, namely decentralized finance, centralized finance, centralized infrastructure, decentralized infrastructure, gaming, and consumer/social. 

According to TechCrunch, by concentrating on these sectors, Blockchain Capital aims to remain at the “forefront” of innovation within the blockchain ecosystem.

Blockchain Capital’s investor base consists of two categories: strategic limited partners (LPs) such as Visa and PayPal, and long-term committed capital from entities like university endowments, family offices, and sovereign wealth funds. Bogart further stated:

The strategic partners like Visa and PayPal are more limited because it’s more active. It’s not just an LP investment; they don’t care about returns as much, but want us to be the eyes and ears on the ground for who else they should work with.

Per the report, the opportunity fund will be utilized to invest in projects that the firm may have missed during its early funding rounds. This allows Blockchain Capital to participate in the growth and development of these projects, even if it had not been involved from the outset.

Bogart emphasized that Blockchain Capital now takes a leading role in “most” of the funding rounds it participates in, committing over 50% of the funding while also influencing pricing, writing the term sheet, and securing board seats. 

Looking ahead, Blockchain Capital intends to continue investing in blockchain-based startups with a long-term vision, staying true to its core focus over the past decade. The firm remains committed to its niche within the blockchain industry and has no plans to diversify into other sectors or investment strategies.

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s last all-time high was $69,000 in November 2021; as of September 2023, it’s been 22 months since that peak. While estimating what price Bitcoin could reach next can be very useful, it’s also important to estimate when a new peak could occur.

History suggests this may still be some time away, as analysis shows that the next Bitcoin peak could arise around the end of 2025.

Previous Cycles

A specific pattern seems to occur when looking at previous tops and bottoms. The three previous bottoms, January 2015, December 2018, and November 2022, were all exactly 47 months apart. Similarly, the previous three tops, November 2013, December 2017, and November 2021, are either 49 or 47 months apart.

Market participants could anticipate the next Bitcoin peak around October-December 2025 if this pattern persists. The subsequent bottom could then occur around October 2026.

This phenomenon of tops and bottoms forming cyclically is a widely held belief in investing. Both stock markets and economies are believed to experience periods of expansion, marked by increased economic activity and rising stock market prices, and contraction, during which the stock market prices decline, and economic growth slows.

What’s particularly interesting about Bitcoin is its consistent pattern of forming its tops and bottoms roughly every four years. The ‘halving theory’ is a popular explanation for this observed pattern.

The Halving Theory

Approximately every four years, Bitcoin undergoes a ‘halving’ event, during which the reward for mining new blocks (i.e. the new supply of Bitcoin) is halved. This mechanism ensures the scarcity of Bitcoin, which is capped at a maximum supply of 21 million coins. A simple economic principle suggests that prices rise when supply drops while demand stays constant or grows.

Historically, Bitcoin has reached a new peak a year after each halving. Given that the next halving is projected to be in April 2024, it aligns with the chart above, showing the next Bitcoin peak to be around the end of 2025.

Next Bitcoin Peak – Will This Time Be Different?

While historical data points provide valuable insights into the potential future performance of an asset, it’s crucial to understand that history does not always exactly repeat itself – it often rhymes. This suggests that while certain patterns from the past might re-emerge, they don’t necessarily play out in the same way.

Various factors, such as technological advances, macroeconomic conditions, and regulatory changes, can introduce differences.

In the current market scenario, Bitcoin is navigating through a high-inflation and high-interest-rate environment for the first time. These conditions can lower market liquidity as investors might have reduced capital available for investment.

Additionally, faced with such an environment, many investors could turn to savings or bonds, which may present more attractive and stable returns than other assets.

Predycto is the author of a cryptocurrency newsletter. Sign up for free. Follow @Predycto on Twitter.

Comparisons in the crypto market are not out of the norm, especially given the fierce rivalry that goes on between two or more tokens at a time. So this report will take a look at where the price of Dogecoin will realistically be if the meme coin’s market cap were to reach the current market cap of Bitcoin or Ethereum.

Dogecoin With The Market Cap Of Bitcoin

Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, has a market cap of $521 billion. This is over 2x the market cap of the second-largest cryptocurrency Ethereum, and makes up around half of the total crypto market cap. While this is interesting, a more interesting fact is where the price of Dogecoin would be if it were to reach the market cap of Bitcoin.

CoinGecko’s Coin Comparison feature allows users to input two different cryptocurrencies and show how much one would trade for if they had the market cap of the others. Using this feature, NewsBTC has been able to determine how much a single DOGE token would be at a market cap of $521 billion.

A single DOGE token at such a market cap comes out to $3.70 per token, an over 59x (5,900%) increase from its current price. Inversely, Bitcoin at the $8.8 billion market cap of Dogecoin would put each BTC at a price of $448.

Where Will DOGE Trade With Ethereum’s Market Cap

Ethereum is currently the second-largest cryptocurrency in the space with a market cap of $196 billion. With this market cap, the price of Ethereum’s nice ETH token is sitting at $1,635 with a circulating supply of 120,225,429 ETH.

Now, using CoinGecko’s Coin Comparison feature and checking the price of where Dogecoin would be if it reaches the $196 billion market cap of Ethereum, it comes out to a $1.39 price point for the meme coin.

From its current price of $0.06192, it comes out to a 22x or 2,200% move. On the flip side, Ethereum falling to the market cap of DOGE at $8.8 billion would see the digital asset’s price trade at just $72.53, a long way from its present value.

The price differences between the cryptocurrencies mentioned at the same market cap come down to their circulating supply. Dogecoin has a circulating supply of over 141 billion DOGE compared to 19.48 million BTC for Bitcoin and 120 million ETH for Ethereum.

An Ethereum initial coin offering (ICO) participant and one of the earliest supporters of the smart contract platform has moved 6,000 ETH worth $9.96 million to Kraken, a cryptocurrency exchange, recent data from Lookonchain on September 18 reveals.

The unidentified whale received 254,908 ETH when each traded for 40.31 during the crowdfunding in 2014. This amount is currently worth over $466 million at spot rates.

Ethereum Whale Transfers Over $9.96 Million To Kraken

The anonymous nature of public blockchains, including Ethereum, makes it harder to decipher the owner’s identity. Determining whether an entity or an individual controls the address is also more complex. 

Whale transfers to a crypto exchange are usually considered bearish since the ramp provides an easier swapping option for token holders to cash out. Typically, crypto whales have the potential to impact the market due to the sheer size of their holdings.

Accordingly, their trading decisions can influence prices, increasing volatility. Therefore, the recent deposit to Kraken may suggest that the whale plans to sell, taking a profit.

On the brighter side, the whale could be moving their coins via an intermediary, in this case, Kraken, before transferring them to other platforms like Rocket Pool or Lido Finance for staking. 

In the current proof-of-stake consensus algorithm used by Ethereum, whales can earn annual staking rewards if they lock at least 32 ETH. While the whale can set up a node and stake, liquidity staking providers like Rocket Pool allow users to stake coins and earn staking rewards using their infrastructure. 

As of September 18, there are over 804,000 validators, that is, users who have locked at least 32 ETH operating an Ethereum full node. Cumulatively, over 25.7 million ETH have been locked.

ETH Prices Recovering

As of this writing, the transfer on September 18 is amid the broader recovery in the crypto market. Of note, Ethereum (ETH) prices are up roughly 6% from September lows. Overall, supporters are bullish, expecting more growth in the days ahead.

The pump also means bulls have reversed some of the losses of September 11, and the current formation may anchor the next leg up that could propel the coin above $1,750, or August 29 highs, and later peel back sharp losses recorded on August 17. 

From the candlestick arrangement in the daily chart, ETH remains under pressure, dropping 23% from 2023 highs of around $2,140.

However, since bears didn’t reverse losses of the June to July leg up, buyers have a chance following the rejection of lower lows from around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the Q3 2023 trade range. Presently, the September and August 2023 lows remain critical support levels for ETH, with the retest of August 17 lows on September 11 causing concern for optimistic traders. 

Last week marked a significant trend as crypto funds, including those holding Bitcoin, faced significant outflows, amplifying investor concerns. While the market’s momentum has wavered for several crypto, a few resilient assets stood firm.

Digital asset investment products witnessed a decline for the fifth straight week. Last week alone saw outflows amounting to $53.5 million, accumulating to nearly half a billion in aggregate outflows over the past nine weeks.

Market Leaders – Bitcoin And Ethereum Feel The Brunt

Bitcoin (BTC), often dubbed the “king of cryptocurrency,” bore the brunt of these outflows. Roughly 85% of the outflows stemmed from Bitcoin funds, translating to a decrease of $45 million last week.

This happened amid Bitcoin’s grappling to recoup some of its prior losses. The cryptocurrency rose from a little over $25,000 at the start of last Monday to end the week above $26,000 by Saturday. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $27,117, marking an 8.3% increase over the past 7 days

Furthermore, the outflow scenario wasn’t particularly rosy for Ethereum (ETH) either. Despite its traditionally appealing investment fundamentals, according to the report, and a booming demand for its staking yield, ETH also, saw outflows to $4.8 million. Other notable assets like BNB and MATIC also experienced minor outflows.

As James Butterfill, the head of research at asset manager CoinShares, highlighted in their recent report, the last two months have been especially challenging, with eight out of the previous nine weeks reporting outflows.

Yet, according to the report, the U.S. seemed to be the primary catalyst behind this negative sentiment, accounting for 77% of the outflows. Other regions, such as Germany, Canada, and Sweden, weren’t immune, registering significant outflows over the last week.

Year-to-date net inflows have plummeted to a meager $51 million post this outflow spree, a startling revelation given the optimistic start to 2023.

Solana, Cardano, And XRP: The Silver Lining

Solana, Cardano, and XRP emerged as beacons of hope in this seemingly gloomy backdrop. Unlike their counterparts, these assets saw inflows: Solana led the pack with $700,000, followed by Cardano and XRP with inflows of $400,000 and $100,000, respectively.

Their performance offers a glimmer of optimism in an otherwise challenging digital asset market, indicating that pockets of resilience and investor confidence remain.

Additionally, trading volume surged by a significant 42% on the brighter side, rising from the previous week’s $754 million to $1 billion.

While blockchain equities, too, felt the sting with their sixth consecutive week of outflows, the increased trading volume indicates the active participation and engagement of traders in the crypto sphere.

Notably, Solana and Cardano have seen more profits than XRP in the past 24 hours, with the former up by 5.5% and the latter by 2.8%; XRP has only recorded a mere 1% profit over the same period.

Featured image from iStock, Chart from TradingView