Blockchain

Bitcoin price is back above $27,000 per coin after holding firm at $25,000 for a second time.

If price fails to move below support and makes another run for resistance, bulls might finally buck the downtrend with a powerful, measured move to $42,000.

Recapping 2023 Using Classical Technical Analysis Methods

2023 thus far has been the year that Bitcoin went mostly sideways. The year began with a strong surge from bear market lows, but failed to instill enough confidence for instant continuation. Even an inverse head and shoulders pattern has yet to produce the expected upside target.

Instead, BTCUSD has spent months and months going sideways, unable to break above $31,000 or below $25,000 per coin. With the top cryptocurrency finding support at $25,000 a second time, bulls might finally be emboldened.

Using classical charting methods such as a the inverse head and shoulders neckline support and a simple downtrend line, we can begin to understand the technical explanation for the pause around this zone.

The Tale Of Two Retest And The $42,000 Target

It is common of an inverse head and shoulders pattern for price to throw back to former neckline resistance and retest it as support. This allows buyers to get in at lower levels, while those who bought earlier take profit.

After a retest, Bitcoin made a substantial move up breaking through a downtrend line drawn from all-time highs. However, the confidence was still not enough for proper follow through, so Bitcoin fell back to $25,000 to test the downtrend line it broke out from.

With the level tested now twice and proving to be seemingly unbreakable, bulls might finally have the confidence to meet the target of the inverse head and shoulders pattern. This target is located at $42,000 per BTC.

This chart originally appeared in Issue #21 of CoinChartist (VIP), where several other Bitcoin price charts demonstrate confluence with the target. Subscribe for free to view the rest of the Bitcoin charts.

Bitcoin might not be able to observe any extended runs of bullish momentum until this on-chain indicator reverses its trend.

Stablecoin Whale Supply Has Dropped To Lowest In Six Months

During the past few days, Bitcoin has registered some rise and has managed to breach the $27,000 level. The asset has, however, been unable to build up any sustained moves above this mark so far.

The below chart shows how the cryptocurrency’s price has changed in recent days:

While moves above the level have all failed, the asset is still more than 3% up during the past week, which is more than some of the other top coins like Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA), and Dogecoin (DOGE).

Now, as for whether Bitcoin can find a proper break toward higher levels, data from the on-chain analytics firm Santiment may provide some hints. The indicator of interest here is the combined percentage of the stablecoin circulating supply that’s being held by the whales.

Here is a chart that shows the trend in this indicator over the past year:

The “whales” here refer to entities that are carrying at least $5 million in their addresses. These investors are among the largest in the market, so they can hold some notable influence.

Related Reading: Here’s Where Next Bitcoin Resistance Lies, From An On-Chain Perspective

From the graph, it’s visible that the total stablecoin supply held by these humongous holders has been on a net decline during the past few months. Following the latest drawdown in the metric, its value has hit 51.14%, which is the lowest observed since March 18th, about six months ago.

What Does This Mean For The Bitcoin Price?

Now, the main question is: what’s the relevance of this metric to Bitcoin? The answer to this question lies in the reason why these holders generally choose to hold stablecoins.

Investors may want to hold their capital in the form of these fiat-tied tokens whenever they intend to avoid the volatility associated with other assets in the sector like BTC.

Such holders are probable to return back into the market as if they were looking to completely exit the sector, they may have done so through outflows into fiat. Once these stablecoin investors find that the prices are right to jump back into the volatile side of the market, they swap their tokens for them.

This act of shifting naturally provides a buying pressure on the prices of the coins that they are moving into. Because of this reason, the stablecoin supply could serve as a measure of the potential dry powder available for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

As the whales are clearly the most significant entities in the sector, the stablecoin supply held by them is of particular importance. Generally, uptrends in BTC follow periods where the whales significantly shed their stable supplies, as it means that they are buying into the asset with them.

Examples of such a trend are visible in the chart, as this pattern formed both prior to the January rally and the rebound in June. These investors have been decreasing their supply recently as well, but as BTC has gone down in this period instead, it’s likely that this decline is coming from withdrawals into fiat.

A turnaround in this indicator may be the one to watch for, as it can be a sign of fresh capital injections into the sector. Perhaps only once the whales’ buying power would return to the same levels as it was earlier in the year when Bitcoin breached $30,000, the asset would be able to find a sustained upward move.

Movement of dormant Bitcoin addresses has been sporadic this year, with most causing a stir and rising interest amongst the Bitcoin community. In the latest record of whale transactions this year, on-chain data has shown that a set of dormant Bitcoin from 2017 has moved for the first time in six years. 

Peckshield, a blockchain security and data analytics firm, revealed in a tweet that the previously inactive address, which held 2,100 BTC has just become active, with its assets now transferred to a different address. 

Whale Wakes Up From Slumber, Moves $56 Million

According to data from BitInfoCharts, this Bitcoin address initially had its first Bitcoin transaction of 2099.99 BTC on October 10, 2019. At the time, Bitcoin was trading at $5,618, putting the total value of the transaction at $11.79 million. Bitcoin has grown substantially since then, with a unit now going for $27,140 at the time of writing.

#PeckShieldAlert A dormant #BTC address 13RLtG…PXs, which received ~2,100 $BTC (worth about $11.8M at the time of transfer) on October 19, 2017, moved its $BTC (now worth ~$56.3M) to a new address 1LGnp5…GgM. pic.twitter.com/rchpCTI1va

— PeckShieldAlert (@PeckShieldAlert) September 19, 2023

The cumulative balance in the wallet address has experienced a significant increase to $56.3 million at the point of transfer, indicating a substantial profit of $44.5 million. However, on-chain data shows that the worth of these holdings reached $121 million during the crypto market bull run in 2021. 

Bearish Signal?

The whale transfer in question appears to have added an air of mystery and excitement to an otherwise dull week of Bitcoin. When a large amount of BTC suddenly moves, it can spark interest from other traders, causing temporary price fluctuations, especially when they are sold off. 

It is currently unclear the motive behind the transfer of these coins, as the owner could be gearing up for a selloff or transfer into a safer wallet. This move could be bearish, though, if they decided to sell all of their holdings. 

It could introduce a fair amount of selling pressure on Bitcoin and cause the price to drop, at least temporarily. However, on-chain data shows that the 2,100 BTC are still held in a private address, “1LGnp”, showing they are probably still in self-custody. 

Bitcoin Worth $24.88M Resurfaces from 2012 Wallets

In another series of transactions this week, a set of dormant Bitcoin from 2012 has moved for the first time in 11 years. The Bitcoin cache, which total $24.88 million in today’s BTC price, was moved in five transactions, making it unclear if they belonged to one person. However, findings from on-chain data show a higher chance of them belonging to one entity due to their acquisition dates. 

Similarly, one of the earliest Bitcoin wallets holding 1,005 BTC was awakened last month. These cryptocurrencies were acquired for less than $1 each in 2010, during the first year of Bitcoin’s creation.

Ethereum (ETH) enthusiasts have found a glimmer of hope in the recent bullish reversal as the entire crypto market appears to be headed for recovery. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization experienced a significant upturn, clawing its way back from the $1,550 support level just last week. 

At the time of writing, ETH is trading at $1,655 according to CoinGecko, showcasing a commendable 5% uptick. This surge has bolstered investor confidence, prompting them to set their sights on challenging the overhead resistance trendline.

Battling The Resistance: A Critical Juncture

The current phase in Ethereum’s price dynamics is marked by a descending resistance trendline. Over the past two months, the cryptocurrency has encountered this formidable resistance barrier twice, both instances leading to a sharp downturn in price. This pattern underscores the resurgence of selling pressure whenever the price nears this elusive boundary.

Analysts are closely monitoring the situation, suggesting that should ETH breach the September 18 low of $1,610, it could open the floodgates for bears to push the asset below the $1,550 floor. Such a scenario could set the trajectory towards the $1,460 mark, representing a potential decline of 9.5%. The battle with overhead resistance remains a pivotal juncture for Ethereum, with both bulls and bears on edge.

Ethereum: Blockspace Profitability 

Concurrently, Ethereum’s blockchain ecosystem is encountering a series of exceptional challenges. Insights from Blockworks data have illuminated a noteworthy aspect of Ethereum’s blockchain activity: it has consistently yielded profits since the network’s transition to a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism in September 2022. This transition was heralded as a pivotal moment in Ethereum’s evolution, aiming to enhance its scalability, security, and sustainability.

Related Reading: Halving Hype: Bitcoin Gearing Up For A Parabolic Ride, Analyst Says

Activity on the Ethereum network has dwindled, leading to September shaping up as the first month to post significant losses since the proof-of-stake upgrade. Throughout the month, Ethereum’s blockspace has recorded only one day of profitability, with losses accumulating to a staggering $15.9 million as of Monday.

Meanwhile, this transformation in blockspace profitability aligns with an expansion in Ethereum’s circulating supply, which has increased by approximately 8,900 ETH this month, as reported by ultrasound.money. 

Ethereum’s price battle at the resistance trendline may determine its short-term fate, while the concerning decline in blockspace profitability highlights broader challenges for the network.

ETH investors and enthusiasts are keenly observing these developments, hoping for a resurgence in both price and blockchain activity to regain their confidence in the platform’s future.

(This site’s content should not be construed as investment advice. Investing involves risk. When you invest, your capital is subject to risk).

Featured image from E-Mountainbike Magazine

Across their social media channels, Ethereum-based decentralized exchange (DEX) Balancer reported an attack against its front end. The platform confirmed that a Domain Name System (DNS) attack targeted the DEX, preventing users from accessing the DEX.

Ethereum DeFi Under Siege

According to an official post, a team is investigating the DNS attack against Balancer. In the meantime, users were asked to avoid interacting with the DEX’s front end to prevent them from falling victim to the bad actors.

In a DNS attack, bad actors can employ different strategies to compromise the security of a website and drain the users’ crypto wallets. Until the investigation is concluded, the team behind Balancer cannot guarantee that the attackers won’t target users.

The team behind the DEX added the following, confirming the protocol’s Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO) involvement in resolving the current situation:

The Balancer DAO is actively addressing the current DNS attack and is working with all relevant parties to ensure the full recovery of the Balancer UI. In the meantime, please DO NOT interact with http://balancer.fi or http://app.balancer.fi until further notice.

Independent crypto investigator ZachXBT reported that over $238,000 had been stolen from the DEX. The investigator confirmed that the funds were sent to this Ethereum address: 0x645710Af050E26bB96e295bdfB75B4a878088d7E.

Further data from Etherscan confirms that the bad actors have begun moving the funds. The individuals use Tornado Cash, another decentralized exchange, to “launder” the stolen funds to gain anonymity.

Pseudonym user Defi_Hanzo was the first to report this development and the first to lose money to the hackers to confirm the DNS attack theory. As seen below, the bad actors took over the Balancer front-end and asked users to change input in the chain where they hold most of their funds.

Once this transaction was completed, bad actors could drain the user’s wallet. DeFi_Hanzo asked the team behind Balancer for a refund after falling victim to the attack.

DeFi’s Public Enemy Number One

Balancer is just one of the many DEX or DeFi applications that have been the victim of some strategy to steal their funds. As Bitcoinist reported, hacks, scams, and other criminal activities in the nascent sector were up 75% by the end of H2 2023 compared to 2022.

Bad actors stole over $650 million over that period, which has continued to rise in the coming months. Of all of the sectors in the crypto industry, DeFi has been the most affected.

The different protocols and applications supported by DeFi platforms lost almost $300 million by the end of H2, 2023. The North Korean affiliate hacker group “Lazarus” has been responsible for many attacks.

As of this writing, Ethereum (ETH) trades at $1,600 with sideways movement in the last 24 hours.

Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview

Ripple Labs has once again become the focus of much scrutiny and debate within the XRP community. Recent data points to a series of high-volume XRP transactions totaling 506 million tokens, valued at approximately $260 million, carried out over the span of 19 days. What makes these transactions especially noteworthy is not just their sheer volume but also the repetitive nature and targeted destinations.

Ripple Transaction Breakdown

Between the end of August and mid-September, a total of 15 significant XRP transactions were initiated by two Ripple-controlled addresses. These transfers were diligently logged by Whale Alert, a reputable platform that tracks large crypto transactions. The initiation of this flurry was a 31 million XRP transaction on August 30.

Of significant note is the consistent pattern observed in many of these transfers. On numerous occasions, amounts exceeding 29 million tokens were transferred to the U.K.-based exchange, Bitstamp. This has ignited curiosity given Ripple’s acquisition of a stake in Bitstamp earlier this year. The specifics of this deal remain undisclosed, but the recurrent transfer of significant XRP sums to the exchange’s wallets post-acquisition does warrant attention.

The address responsible for the majority of these transactions to Bitstamp, although initially unidentified by Whale Alert, is believed to be directly associated with Ripple Labs. This has led to intense speculation within the community. The direct involvement of Bitstamp in these transactions, combined with Ripple’s known stake in the exchange, raises questions about the nature and intent of these transfers.

Another Ripple-associated address was also active, executing two prominent transfers on September 11 and September 18, totaling 175 million XRP in mid-September. Of these, 100 million XRP was moved to a wallet linked with the Canadian SideShift crypto exchange. In a previous instance, similar transactions were observed from the Binance platform to Ripple’s wallets, but no clarifications were provided by either party at the time.

Market Implications

The magnitude of these transactions has understandably caused ripples in the market, leading to speculations about potential systemic selloffs. The recent acquisition of financial services entity Fortress by Ripple has further added fuel to the fire. Questions are being raised about whether Ripple could potentially be leveraging its XRP holdings to facilitate such acquisitions.

Bill Morgan, an advocate in the XRP circle, queried the relationship between the XRP transactions and the acquisition of Fortress, hinting at the potential impact of such a move on XRP’s price. While these significant XRP transfers have undoubtedly stirred the crypto community, it’s essential to highlight that Ripple Labs has, in the past, regularly transferred large XRP sums for various operational reasons.

“I wouldn’t want to think that Ripple sold a lot of XRP to fund this acquisition and bailing out of Fortress customers putting downward price pressure on XRP. But that couldn’t be the cause of the price fall today as the whole crypto market fell,” he tweeted.

Currently, neither Ripple Labs nor Bitstamp has provided any official insight into these recent transactions, leaving room for speculation. As the crypto ecosystem awaits an official response, maybe the next quarterly report by Ripple will deliver answers when the companies presents news stats on its quarterly XRP sales.

At press time, XRP traded at $0.5139.

The possibilities of how high the XRP price can go has triggered heated debate among crypto community members over the past week. One particular forecast put the price of the cryptocurrency as high as $10,000 as Ripple advances in the payments sector. However, the validity of this prediction is still heavily debated, leading crypto analysts to weigh in on whether this price point is possible.

Analyst Explains Why $10,000 Is Not Possible

One analyst who has weighed in on the XRP price to $10,000 debate is Zach Rector. Following the circulation of predictions that the altcoin could rise to this level, Rector came forward to explain why he doesn’t believe that the XRP price can climb that high.

In the post that was made on X (formerly Twitter), Rector points toward a currency reset and debt restructuring as the reason behind his belief. According to him, both a Currency Reset and Debt Restructuring would have to take place before the altcoin can mount such a rally.

Explaining further, Rector points toward both of these taking place before the cryptocurrency could even rise to a much lower price point of $50. So he believes that instead of putting forward such price predictions, the question to be asked is, “How high will XRP go before we have a RESET?”

Another X user chimed in in response to Rector’s tweet to say it is possible for the XRP price to reach $10,000. However, they believe that this will only happen if the current high inflation rates are maintained. In a follow-up tweet, the user gives XRP a 5% chance of actually reaching $10,000.

“$10,000 is possible but that would be assuming that we maintain this disastrous inflation rate, XRP becomes worldwide cross border payment currency of choice with no competition, and Tokenization takes place and at least 10-20% of one of the top 10 markets worldwide utilizes XRP,” the tweet reads.

Why The Sudden Bullishness On XRP Price?

Indicators and investors alike first turned bullish for the XRP price following Ripple’s victory over the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in July. The price of the coin had risen over 60% in the days following the ruling as interest ballooned.

The token’s rally has since slowed down since then, wiping the majority of its gains from the ruling. However, crypto analysts remain bullish. One analyst put the XRP price at $130, while another analyst sees it going as high as $500.

XRP’s trading volumes, which have been nearly consistent above $1 billion, also show that investors are heavily involved in the coin. This sustained bullishness is further fueled by Ripple’s exploits in the payments sector, as well as working with various countries on their Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs).

Binance Coin (BNB) finds itself in a state of limbo as it extends its sideways pattern on the lower timeframes. BNB has been treading water for nearly a month, caught in a tight range between the support at $205 and a stubborn resistance zone spanning $220 to $225. 

While on-chain metrics hint at the potential for a short-term price surge, BNB bulls are grappling with the challenge of breaking free from this extended sideways pattern.

As of the latest data from CoinGecko, BNB is currently priced at $216.74, with a modest 0.1% gain in the last 24 hours and a seven-day rally of 2.8%. Investors and traders are eagerly awaiting a decisive move in either direction, but the market seems hesitant to make a commitment.

BNB Bulls And Bears At Loggerheads

Bulls and bears have been entrenched in a battle, with $205 serving as a crucial support and the $220-$225 range as the formidable resistance. This scenario has paved the way for a prolonged period of range-bound price action in the short term, leaving traders on the edge of their seats.

Price analysis shows that the On Balance Volume (OBV) indicator’s relatively muted movement presents two possible scenarios for the days ahead. The first scenario entails bulls launching a concerted effort to catch short sellers off guard by breaking above the $220 barrier and potentially surging toward the $240 mark. Such a move would inject renewed optimism into the BNB market.

On the flip side, a bearish rejection could usher in a third test of the $205 support level, with the ominous prospect of a breakdown toward the $188 support level, as seen on the weekly timeframe. This scenario could see the bears exerting their influence and pushing BNB lower.

Long-Term Prospects Hang In The Balance

Zooming out to the larger timeframes, the situation remains tense, with BNB trading far from key levels. To regain control, another analysis points out that buyers must strive to push the price above the nearest resistance at $221.7. Only then can hopes for a potential bull run begin to materialize.

While on-chain metrics hint at potential upward momentum, the resilience of the resistance zone is a formidable challenge.  

Traders and investors will be keeping a keen eye on the evolving OBV dynamics, as they hold the key to whether BNB breaks free from its current sideways drift or succumbs to further downward pressure as October approaches.

(This site’s content should not be construed as investment advice. Investing involves risk. When you invest, your capital is subject to risk).

Featured image from VectorStock

As the market braces itself for the Federal Reserve’s imminent announcement regarding its monetary policy, speculations are rife about the potential impact on Bitcoin and crypto. Based on Grayscale’s recent analysis by Zach Pandl, today’s announcement could be the critical juncture the Bitcoin and crypto community has been awaiting.

In the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis in 2020, the Federal Reserve embarked on a path of significant monetary easing to reignite the US economy. Their initial stance was one of unwavering support: “The Federal Reserve committed to overstimulating the US economy–with hopes to avoid the sluggish recovery that followed the 2008-2009 financial crisis.” This decision saw a bolstered Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in 2020.

However, as Pandl points out, the tide seemed to turn in mid-2021 when the Federal Reserve had a revelation: “[The Fed] seemed to realize it was overdoing it.” What followed was a series of the most “largest and steepest funds rate increases in modern history.” As real interest rates rebounded, Bitcoin’s valuation, which had soared during the period of monetary easing, began to see a massive downturn.

The Road Ahead For Bitcoin And Crypto

Pandl’s analysis elucidates the heightened anticipation around the FOMC’s meeting. He notes, “We believe the FOMC is likely to keep rates on hold at tomorrow’s meeting.” Notably, this is in line with broader market expectations. According to the FedWatch tool, 99% expect a pause by the Fed.

Despite hints earlier in June 2023 about potential rate increments beyond the 5.25-5.50% range, the current economic indicators, such as “benign inflation data” and steady “oil prices,” could influence the committee’s decision, argues Pandl.

Yet, as the report astutely mentions, it’s not just about the immediate policy decision: “For crypto, whether the Fed hikes one more time or not may be less important than the fact that the broader tightening cycle is coming to an end.” This perspective, when viewed in light of historical data, suggests a potential upliftment for digital assets. After all, “After the funds rate peaked in the last five tightening cycles, real interest rates declined and equity market performance generally improved.”

Although the crypto ecosystem continues to evolve at a rapid pace with “new applications, enhancements to existing protocols, and wider adoption,” its valuations haven’t always mirrored these advancements. Over the last few years, as Pandl underscores, “valuations have been heavily influenced by the macroeconomics backdrop and swings in Fed monetary policy–from ultra-easy policy in 2020 to steep rate increases more recently.”

The potential conclusion of the Fed’s rate increases could signify a pivotal moment for Bitcoin and other digital assets. As we approach this juncture, the crypto market may find itself at a crossroads where “A possible end of the tightening process could remove a headwind to crypto valuations, and allow prices to more closely track the industry’s improving fundamentals.”

At press time, BTC traded at $27,099.

Dogecoin is recovering higher from the $0.060 level against the US Dollar. DOGE could continue to rise if it clears the $0.0640 resistance zone.

DOGE started a decent increase above the $0.0615 resistance against the US dollar.
The price is trading above the $0.062 level and the 100 simple moving average (4 hours).
There is a key rising channel forming with resistance near $0.0640 on the 4-hour chart of the DOGE/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
The price could struggle to clear the $0.0638 and $0.0640 resistance levels.

Dogecoin Price Starts Recovery

After a major decline, Dogecoin price found support near the $0.0595 zone. DOGE traded as low as $0.0591 and recently started a recovery wave. There was a decent move above $0.0600 and the price settled above $0.0612.

Recently, Bitcoin saw a steady increase above $27,000 and helped altcoins in recovery. Dogecoin is also showing a few positive signs and was able to clear the $0.062 resistance. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $0.0685 swing high to the $0.0591 low.

DOGE is now trading above the $0.062 level and the 100 simple moving average (4 hours). On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $0.0638 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $0.0685 swing high to the $0.0591 low.

The first major resistance is near the $0.0640 level. Besides, there is a key rising channel forming with resistance near $0.0640 on the 4-hour chart of the DOGE/USD pair.

Source: DOGEUSD on TradingView.com

A close above the $0.0620 resistance might send the price toward the $0.0670 resistance. The next major resistance is near $0.0685. Any more gains might send the price toward the $0.072 level.

Are Dips Supported in DOGE?

If DOGE’s price fails to gain pace above the $0.0640 level, it could start a downside correction. Initial support on the downside is near the $0.0620 level.

The next major support is near the $0.060 level. If there is a downside break below the $0.060 support, the price could decline further. In the stated case, the price might decline toward the $0.0565 level.

Technical Indicators

4 Hours MACD – The MACD for DOGE/USD is now losing momentum in the bullish zone.

4 Hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for DOGE/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $0.0620, $0.0600, and $0.0565.

Major Resistance Levels – $0.0638, $0.0640, and $0.0685.