Blockchain

The company behind the XRP Ledger crypto wallet, Xumm, unveiled its plans to launch an “Infrastructure Overhaul” for the network. The company claims the upgrade will push the XRPL to the next level. According to an official announcement shared with Bitcoinist:

This isn’t just a technical upgrade; it’s a strategic move to reshape the very foundation of the XRPL, ensuring a sustainable, efficient, and inclusive future for all participants.

XRP Ledger Upgrade Goes Beyond? Implications For The Network

Xumm believes the XRP Ledger has an “advanced” infrastructure, but they aim to address some key issues impacting “flexibility” and performance. The company believes that with its present capabilities, the network has difficulty processing transactions and fetching historical data.

In the long run, these issues could affect the ledger’s capacity to onboard new users and use cases. Xumm’s new update is set to improve the ledger’s capacity to avoid bottlenecks while enhancing local node connections and “ensuring” access to real-time data.

As seen in the image below, the infrastructure upgrade will allow entities operating on the ledger to filter out transactions, avoid scam accounts, reduce network fees, and improve scalability. The company decided to donate the upgrade via software to the XRPL Foundation.

Wietse Wind, founder and CEO of XRPL Labs, stated:

This is, without a doubt, the most monumental upgrade to the XRPL infrastructure since its inception, marking a pivotal moment in our pursuit of a healthier, sustainable XRP Ledger.

New Rewards For XRPL Users, The Airbnb Network

In addition to improving the XRPL’s infrastructure and ecosystem, Xumm wants to introduce a new monetization strategy to reward node operators. In that sense, the company claims to have “rebuilt the XRPL Cluster Software” to encourage users to stop relying on third parties.

This change will put more financial pressure on major platforms, such as non-fungible tokens or crypto trading platforms, rather than on the small individuals operating on the ledger. The company added:

In this ecosystem, quality hardware will be monitored, and users can plug in their node to the cluster, receiving queries from nearby sources. Those contributing resources will earn the lion’s share of the billing from larger consumers. It’s akin to an “Airbnb for XRPL infrastructure.”

Some of the benefits of this infrastructure update include:

Better stability.
Guarantee real-time transaction processing.
Connection Consistency across the ecosystem.

Overall, individuals will benefit from these improvements. Xumm concluded:

This development ensures a flexible in-ecosystem platform where supply and demand can dynamically be matched. Keeping public infra flexible, scalable, and cheap.

XRP trades at $0.5 with sideways movement across small timeframes as of this writing.

Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview

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Data shows that the Bitcoin mining sector has become the most sustainably-powered global industry, as more than 50% of it uses clean energy.

Majority Of Bitcoin Mining Industry Uses Clean Energy Sources

One of the main criticisms against BTC is that the sector uses a considerable amount of energy and, thus, releases a notable amount of emissions.

Things appear to be developing for the better and quite fast. In a new post on X, the co-founder of CH4Capital, Daniel Batten, has shared a few charts that look into the sustainability of the BTC network and how it compares with other sectors.

The first chart displays the trend in the percentage of sustainable energy used by Bitcoin mining and other industries over the last four years.

As shown in the above chart, most industries have seen minimal growth in using sustainable energy during this period. The Banking Sector, the second largest in terms of clean energy usage, saw a rise of 2.6%.

On the other hand, the Bitcoin mining sector has observed an increase of a whopping 38%, which has taken the share of sustainable energy powering the blockchain to 52.6%. This growth has naturally made BTC mining the most sustainable among these global industries.

An even more interesting chart is this one that compares the emissions of the network (in terms of megatons of CO2 emitted) with the various indicators related to the blockchain’s growth.

Three Bitcoin metrics are being considered here: the mining hashrate, the price, and the total number of users. The first has grown by 475% during the past four years, the second by 164%, and the third by 289%.

Despite these growths, however, the emissions of the mining sector have gone down almost 10% in the same period. Batten notes that even if you double these metrics during any four-year cycle, the emissions will be the same as at the start, which no other industry has achieved.

The fact that the hashrate, which is a measure of the total amount of computing power that miners have connected to the blockchain, has been able to rise while total emissions go down would imply that the emission intensity (that is, the emissions per kWh of power used) has declined.

Indeed, as the data would confirm, the BTC network’s emission intensity has dropped by more than 50% in the last four years, making the mining sector the most emission-efficient among the global industries.

Finally, Batten has also shared the energy composition of the network, noting that the largest power source is hydro.

This means that the Bitcoin mining sector is also the only one that doesn’t have its largest source of power coal.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has been stagnant for a while now, and the asset is only continuing this sideways trend as its price trades around the $26,100 level.

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As the bear market continues to linger, several market analysts have pointed out key metrics or factors that show that the Bitcoin bull market might not be far off. This time, Bloomberg analyst Jamie Coutts has identified key Bitcoin adoption metrics that provide bullish signals to the crypto community.

What Are These Key Bitcoin Metrics?

In a tweet shared on his X (formerly Twitter) platform, Coutts noted that “HODLers” and transactions on the Bitcoin network were at an all-time high. According to the update he shared, the number of addresses holding more than 1 BTC is at its highest over the last five years. 

In the past month, there has also been close to a 1% increase in persons holding more than one 1 BTC. Meanwhile, the volume of Bitcoin transactions, entity-adjusted ones, has surged by over 9% in the past month. This metric also has a 99.8% percentile over the last five years.

These two metrics form part of key metrics used to determine how widely the Bitcoin network and token are adopted. Their being in the green is undoubtedly bullish, especially considering that many have been said to have left the crypto market because of the lingering conditions.

The first metric shows that more addresses are accumulating BTC, and a significant chunk of it, even though the crypto token has been tepid for a while now. The entity-adjusted metric is even more significant as it measures the number of unique Bitcoin users rather than active wallets. 

However, there are some negatives from the Bitcoin on-chain update that Coutts laid out. The value of this entity-adjusted bitcoin transactions has dropped by over 30% in the past year (although it is up by %30 in the last three years). The median transfer value has also decreased drastically (over 98% in the last three years), putting it also in the bottom percentile over the last five years. 

This shows that the economic value of the network is down even though adoption is currently at an all-time high. 

Worrying Concerns Around Bitcoin’s Adoption

There has been increased institutional interest in the flagship cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, especially with traditional fund managers moving to offer several Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, following this interest, many have become wary about the true intentions of these fund managers and how they could make Bitcoin more centralized.

These concerns are likely to be further fueled by a recent revelation made by Coutss. In a tweet released on September 26, he pointed out that three asset managers (Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street) are major investors in the three biggest publicly traded mining companies. 

While he stated that his statement shouldn’t be taken as FUD, he raised concerns about what this could mean for the Bitcoin network as these fund managers account for “about 8.9% of the global hash.” 

According to him, there might be the risk of “creeping influence that might conflict” with the network’s values. He believes these companies could go as far as censoring transactions with such influence. 

This development is more significant because BlackRock is one of several fund managers that have filed to offer a Spot Bitcoin ETF. 

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Coin Fam

In the last article we teased VESA being in Switzerland, and how the country is advancing leaps and bounds in the eyes of the international crypto community, but today we will give you the lowdown on what the Swiss Web3 Fest was all about and who are the people in the ecosystem behind it.

In general, to preface why the following is important, it’s good to mention something. VESA has been working with a bunch of people, from big to small companies and beyond, and what is quite frightening is the ratio of competent people even in big organisations, who have their shit together. It is  R A R E.

So, let’s get to it.The Crypto Oasis founders (from left) Saqr, Ralf, and Faisal with us at the Art In Space gallery in Dubai earlier

From Crypto Oasis to Crypto Valley and back

If you have been connected to the crypto scene in Dubai at all, you must have heard of Crypto Oasis. The spearhead pack is the fastest growing crypto ecosystem in the world, but not everyone knows of their strong presence, and co-founder origins, in Switzerland.

Grace under pressure

The whole teams of Crypto Valley and Oasis were like fish in water when D-day finally came. The type of pressure that producing a large conference brings didn’t seem to faze them. It’s not an act when the curtains open.

Quite the opposite. The day before the fest is set to go, the meeting room was still full of laughter and the team was constantly aware of opportunities to connect and support others already arriving early. VESA has been to see some 400+ events and many of them behind closed doors don’t have laughter coming out at that point – that’s for sure.

While we are most familiar with Crypto Oasis, Ralf, and Saqr especially, at Dubai’s end, the home ground advantage that CV Labs and Crypto Valley had in Switzerland was tangible. It is clear that this network that drapes over the two countries and more is a legit, and expanding fast. Valley or desert, some people know how to generate.

 

What bear market?

The Swiss Web3 Fest kicked off and the feeling had that same kind of buzz that was Miami during the height of the bull market in Jan 2018 at the North American Bitcoin Conf. Many of the attendees had a personal connection to one or several of the Founders of the Fest and as it’s not only crypto, the peaks and valleys of its cycles aren’t touching this as much. It’s one thing to keep being in this space through the rough seas of the bear market, and a whole other to pack electric conferences during it.

Captured from the plane ride over

The Swiss Alps lent its majesty as the backdrop of the affair as the attendees flew in and were greeted by the opulence and wealth of the country. First time visitors were quickly educated on the cost of living in the country, as grabbing a bottle of water at the airport set you back a distinguished 7,30 euros.

NFT ART DAY IN ZUG

It’s great to get in contact time and time again with the artworld at large – from the crypto art & NFT bubbles. Legacy art is still so far behind in understanding why digital certificates done right, matter, that it’s scary. In general in culture now, we feel the touch of history, as we delete and censor things all the time. Culture and tastes change, and now we see deletion of conversations, ideas and people all the time. It’s always been like this. Statues are being torn, and some are still pissed that the library of Alexandria was burned. We can never take knowing history for granted. Something verified on the blockchain, now at the edge of AI mixing things even further and irrecognisably, decentralised blockchain matters more than ever.

It was most excellent, as always, to see, hang out and party with the powerful Brittany Kaiser and my trusted gallerist Tomas Cermak from Cermak Eisenkraft Gallery.

DFINITY & Internet Computer

Sponsoring and co-hosting the Fest were DFINITY and their innovative project Internet Computer, who were prominently visible throughout the festival. Lomesh Dutta gave a couple of keynote speeches on the mission and vision of the project and partied with us to Ibiza tunes late after the Unconference end. The DFINITY Foundation’s mission is to build, promote, and maintain the Internet Computer — the world’s first web-speed, internet-scale public blockchain. It enables smart contracts to securely serve interactive web content directly into the browsers of end users, making it possible to build dapps, DeFi, open internet services, and enterprise systems that can operate at hyperscale. It helps credibility that they have a whole building to themselves

The Data-Cleopatra

This title will make sense a bit later.. VESA and Brittany are both going to Cairo later this year.

One of the most magical aspects of in person events is that they bring together partners that you have an open folder with. Brittany Kaiser, who visited Finland in November 2021 to shoot an NFT project with VESA on data ownership and her entire life story, was present at the Fest.
A major theme of the entire Fest was environmental consciousness and green initiatives.

https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Brittany-studio.mp4

Brittany in VESA’s studio earlier filming a project, which is about to get energised from Egypt to complete post production via Mercantura Forum

Featured initiative by the festival founders was the Green Block. The Green Block is an initiative by Crypto Oasis Ventures to create an Ecosystem for Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) related Blockchain projects and platforms. This is the first Global initiative of Crypto Oasis Ventures in commitment to the UAE’s COP28 initiative. Unlike in many other green initiative groups, this one is not afraid to have the battle of ideas inside of the group either from fear mongering to green washing – it was all on the table to figure out what is real about it.

The Green Block is going to be an Ecosystem that aims to foster a sustainable future by bringing together stakeholders to develop and implement solutions for corporate governance, environmental sustainability, and social responsibility. The Green Block concentrates on promoting, leading, and connecting the industry to align with the goals of the UAE for COP28 and the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) for the World.

The conversations and connections evolved throughout the Fest and by the end of the conference, something beyond huge was already brewing.
The first phone calls for this new development are taking place as we speak, more on that soon.

Brittany had also embarked on another venture. She told VESA that she is in the process of tokenizing high-value real estate assets, namely heritage castles in France, and had her eyes on other parts of the world as well.

https://www.newsbtc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/IMG_2492.mp4

The Fork & Flip piece from 2017 made an appearance at the back of the main ballroom at the Unconference. Faisal killed it as a moderator when Brittany was talking about green mining, the new castle project etc.

Not much can be made public about the castle project yet, but you can enquire about it via join@chateaushi.com

It was good to also reconnect with Matti Liukas, his lovely wife Brynne Kennedy & business partner Antonio Beja to catch up. As with every conf, there are late nights, possibly cigars, and a pissed off kitchen staff to bring in 5 times the amount of food ordered. Guess they didn’t want to be dragged back into the kitchen by a bunch of party animals All handled with laughter & good spirits.

BR8VE and Fork & Flip

Two VESA pieces that have an impressive pedigree are the commission piece for an anonymous crypto OG, THE BR8VE and an early crypto art called Fork & Flip.

The works were exhibited at the Fest as large fabric pieces. In themes both works are right in the core of crypto art, the predecessor to NFTs, and tell the story of the decentralized movement. It’s pretty fire to say the BR8VE could be the Guernica of Crypto, but I challenge anyone to look at the substance and at least have to consider it.

The Swiss Web3 Fest coincided with new VESA NFTs being released on Tokengate, an NFT platform associated with the Crypto Oasis and Arte community.

The highly curated and sophisticated platform immediately felt like home for the new Mirror- series, which explores transcendental, symmetrical shapes in motion and colour.

What ever your art form is, when the attitude is to get things done, you hang from ceilings, help others come to contribute. We go beyond always to what is expected and don’t give up when things don’t look optimal.

The large fabric piece is now available via the website shipping almost anywhere within 10 days.

It was also a pleasure to meet this Saudi gentleman Zeyad Alkhelaifi, a CAMO Aircraft Engineer, who was our guest at his first ever crypto conference. The piece Fork & Flip can be found here.

Visiting the Unpaired gallery with Georg Bak

Swiss NFT Association

Swiss NFT Association – Assemble! Another piece of the armada forming in Switzerland is SNA – Swiss NFT Association, which held its ground as a part of the entire Swiss Web3 Fest. It was called the Unconference, held by the Swiss NFT Lakeside as it wrapped up the action-packed week of keynotes, connections, panels, and workshops. The whole experience felt like a mere glimpse into the potential firepower of the ecosystem and the Swiss NFT culture. It was great to get to know Victor and Josephine a bit, and start discussing further Swiss contributions.

Pioneer gifts

Early Bitcoin art gifts – verified on the #BTC chain – to early Bitcoin people and their incredible teams pushing this space forward This iPad cover has been with me since 2018, and travelled a bunch. It was once of those early one off experiments that I didn’t put for sale and forgot to make more of. It’s now verified on chain via @verisart

“BitCover I”now dedicated and given as a token of appreciation to

@GLRalf @DxBlockChain @Faisalsz for our past, present and future.
Link to the video on insta https://instagram.com/p/BomJ_bugKIW/

As Arnold Schwarzenegger says in his Netflix docu series, no one is self made. This took an all star team. It was great to connect with Luca making sure we all got to where we needed to be, Saed connecting us to new people like Kareem from Mercantura Forum, Manal, Maria, Fabio and Mic as a new acquaintance. Tom from Tokengate was hanging with me in the ceiling attaching the large BR8VE artwork last minute. Pascal was there always to lend a hand or an idea, and was good to reconnect with Dennis as always. VESA wasn’t able to connect with everyone but many are left unmentioned.
So yea.

It was a vortex.

Grateful to you all, and see you in Dubai soon habibis.

Lotta for
V E S A
Crypto & NFT Artist
All links to physical, NFTs, and more below
http://linktr.ee/ArtByVesa

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On-chain data shows the largest of the Bitcoin whales have returned to distribution, a sign that could be bearish for the asset’s price.

Bitcoin Investors With More Than 10,000 BTC Are Selling Again

As explained by analyst James V. Straten in a new post on X, the BTC whales, who had earlier been in a phase of accumulation, have switched their behavior to that of distribution now.

The relevant indicator here is the “Trend Accumulation Score” from Glassnode, which keeps track of whether Bitcoin investors have been buying or selling during the past month. This metric finds this value by looking at the balance changes in the addresses of the holders.

The score also puts a higher weightage on the larger entities, meaning that the accumulation of a few large holders would be more significant for the indicator than the behavior of the smaller hands.

When the Trend Accumulation Score has a value close to 1, it means that there is a trend of net accumulation in the market right now. On the other hand, values close to zero imply distribution is the dominant behavior currently.

Now, here is how this score has changed for the various Bitcoin investor cohorts since the start of the year:

As you can see above, the entire Bitcoin market had been displaying a net distribution behavior during August as the accumulation trend score had been a shade of red for all the cohorts (with the deeper shades naturally being closer to the zero mark). During this selloff period, BTC had registered a significant drawdown.

At the start of September, most of the investor groups had still continued to sell, but interestingly, the largest cohort in the sector, the holders carrying more than 10,000 BTC ($262.7 million at the current exchange rate) had started accumulating instead.

This group may be called the “mega whales,” since these investors stand out even among the whales. From the data, it’s visible that while these mega whales had been buying earlier in the month, they have recently again shown a shift in their behavior.

The Trend Accumulation Score has declined for these humongous entities and now it’s leaning toward distribution. This may suggest that while these investors had thought the earlier lows presented ideal entry opportunities, the fact that the coin has only continued to stagnate recently may have changed their minds.

At present, though, the mega whales aren’t dumping Bitcoin at too large a scale. The same is not true for the rest of the cohorts, however, who have taken to some pretty heavy selling recently, as the Trend Accumulation Score has turned deep red for them.

This market-wide selling could be a troubling sign for the cryptocurrency and may be a foreshadowing of a drawdown in the near future.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has been showing a trend of overall consolidation since the crash back in August, as the cryptocurrency continues to float around the $26,200 mark.

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Ethereum liquid staking platforms are making waves in the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem. Recent on-chain reports have revealed that liquid staking protocols have recorded a new milestone in the number of Ether (ETH) staked, reaching a staggering 12 million ETH mark in just a few days. 

Ethereum Liquid Staking Gains Momentum

With Ethereum 2.0 thriving, liquid staking protocols in the DeFi ecosystem have been growing rapidly despite recent market volatility.

Research data from DeFi TVL aggregator, Defillama, revealed on Monday, September 25, the tremendous growth of Ethereum holdings in liquid staking platforms. According to the data, the ETH in liquid staking protocols has risen to approximately 12.31 million and may continue rising.

Reports uncovered that a staggering 370,000 ETH were staked in just five days, allowing liquid staking protocols to reach their current 12 million mark. Liquid staking platforms like Lido, Rocket Pool, Coinbase, and Binance are among the list of prominent protocols that led to the recent upsurge in Ether staking. 

According to Defillama TVL rankings, Lido holds the top spot for the amount of Ethereum staked with a TVL of $13.997 billion in liquid staking. The protocol secured over 8 million Ether on September 20, and another 30,000 after that.

Coinbase is presently ranked second in Defillama’s TVL rankings, holding approximately $2.155 billion, a significant gap from Lido’s TVL. 

Coinbase has about 1.3 million Ether presently in its reserve. Whereas, Rocket Pool holds the third position in TVL rankings and has increased its Ether holdings from 940,496 to 945,402. 

Binance Liquid Staking Platform Takes The Lead

Binance liquid staking platform has been the driving force behind the recent spike in ether influx in liquid staking protocols in the DeFi ecosystem. 

According to reports, Binance added a startling amount of ether to its already substantial ether reserves. The liquid staking platform which previously recorded 445,000 ETH in its reserve, added 318,605 ETH and now holds 764,105 ETH. Research data have revealed that Binance amassed a considerable amount of ETH tokens to support its staking token, Wrapped Beacon ETH (WBETH).

In the last three months, the DeFi ecosystem recorded a liquid staking valuation above $20 billion evaluating various protocols in the DeFi ecosystem. Following this, Defillama’s September data revealed liquid staking protocols now hold $20.5 billion in assets, increasing by a staggering 293% from previous lows in June 2022. 

Although the key protocols steering the surge are Lido, Binance, and Rocket Pool. Other upcoming liquid staking protocols like Davos and InQubeta are persisting, driven by the Ethereum 2.0 upgrade and investors desire to maximize their earnings through Ethereum staking.

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Maker DAO’s MKR has recorded a big push amid the slight uptick in the broader cryptocurrency market. Yesterday, September 25, the token rose from a low of $1,265 to a high of $1,343. 

Although most tokens struggle to recover, MKR consolidated on its upswing with an impressive 5% 24-hour increase. MKR trades at $1335, striding to conquer the critical resistance at $1,350. 

Its latest strides show buyers are in control, and their activity could facilitate more gains for MKR. But is the bullish momentum strong enough to push MKR to the $1,500 price mark? Let’s find out.

Related Reading: Market Analysts Outline When The First Spot Bitcoin ETF Will Be Approved

MKR Stands Among Top-gaining Cryptocurrencies

MKR ranked number one among today’s top-gaining cryptocurrencies, gapping Chainlink and Bitcoin Cash by 2%. This comes while the overall crypto market cap recorded a slight uptick of 0.63%, with the trading volume down 4%, indicating a decline in trading activity. However, amid the sparse buying activities in the general market, MKR recorded a 47% increase in trading volume. 

This observation depicts increased buy action in the Maker market. But while this increased buying strength could fuel the coin’s price rally, it’s important to identify the factors behind it. 

The buzz around the new proposal to deploy Spark Protocol on zkSync Era Mainnet has boosted investor sentiment. This proposal will include wETH, rETH, wstETH, and DAI as initial collaterals for borrowing on the Spark Protocol. Also, if adopted, the proposal will set a 2 million liquidity goal to spur Spark Protocol’s growth on zkSync.

Already, 100% of the Maker community voted yes to launching Spark on Gnosis Chain. This development makes DAI, Maker DAO’s stablecoin, the native gas token of Gnosis Chain. In addition, it allows users to earn increased yield when lending their DAI tokens. 

Given this benefit, this development yielded positive sentiment in the Maker ecosystem. This positive sentiment must have translated into increased demand for MKR, the governance token of the Maker protocol, a plausible reason behind the surge in trading activities. 

MKR Strives To Conquer The Key Resistance Level: Is $1,500 Possible?

The daily chart shows that MKR has formed two consecutive bullish candlesticks around the $1,300 price. This set-up depicts high token demand and increased buying strength around this zone. 

The increased buy actions have pushed MKR above a key support level of $1,086 and a critical moving average of $1,166. But, the bulls met strong opposition at the $1,354. The sell activities from profit-taking traders, evident in forming two bearish candlesticks at this level, hinder further strides. Furthermore, MKR has remained a few pipes below $1,354 since opening today’s trading session at $1,338. 

However, the Relative Strength Index, which increased from 63 to 64.97, approaching the overbought area, signals rising buying strength. It suggests that more buyers are entering longer positions, ready to counter the selling pressure resisting rally. 

Suppose buyers maintain the ongoing momentum; a breakout above $1,354 and a move towards $1,500 before the day ends is possible.

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Cardano (ADA) finds itself at a pivotal juncture as it tests its longstanding support at $0.24. This critical level has held firm for nearly three years, emerging as a significant accumulation point for savvy investors. 

The recent daily candle hints at a somewhat neutral stance in the market. This slight uptick in price suggests a potential dissipation of the strong bearish sentiment that has lingered, with traders now recognizing renewed buying interest hovering around the $0.24 mark.

Bullish Hopes Rest On Breaking Sustained ADA Resistance

The eyes of Cardano enthusiasts are now fixed on a key resistance level, as breaking free from this barrier could set the stage for a significant trend reversal. 

According to a price report, should Cardano manage to surpass this critical resistance point, it could spark a rally, potentially pushing prices upward by approximately 6%, with the next major hurdle resting at $0.25. Should this upward momentum persist, it could further drive the coin’s value towards the coveted $0.28 mark.

As of the latest data available, ADA is trading at $0.246841 according to CoinGecko, reflecting a 0.7% gain over the past 24 hours. However, over the course of the past seven days, the coin has experienced a decline of 3.6%.

OptionFlow Open Public Testnet Goes Live

In parallel to Cardano’s price dynamics, the team behind OptionFlow, a Cardano-based option protocol, has announced a significant milestone. Phase one of their open public testnet has gone live, ushering in a new era of experimentation for Cardano enthusiasts. 

Exciting News! Phase 1 of the OptionFlow Testnet is now LIVE!

Access it at https://t.co/n4xjBBaOUG and mint the first options on Cardano! (Preprod network)

We value your feedback! Share your thoughts and experiences to help us improve: https://t.co/4ZBMBjHjyW

…

— OptionFlow (@OptionFlowTeam) September 25, 2023

The preproduction version of the application is now open for users to explore, allowing them to submit both “put” and “call” orders on-chain—a departure from the traditional derivatives positions seen on centralized exchanges.

The year 2023 has been a transformative year for Cardano, particularly in the realm of decentralized finance (DeFi). During the second quarter of the year, the Cardano network bore witness to a surge in DeFi activity, achieving numerous off-chain records. 

Cardano Hits TVL ATH

The total value locked (TVL) in Cardano’s DeFi ecosystem reached an all-time high of $200 million. However, as the broader crypto market grapples with a challenging decline, this metric has dipped to $146.52 million at the time of writing.

#Cardano community, May was a MASSIVE month for our defi. In only 24 days @Cardano did 2 MILLION transactions. See below May 2 snapshot & todays data release. @cardano_whale @IOHK_Charles @ArmySpies @CryptoIRELAND1 $ADA pic.twitter.com/aGfoAzlOIy

— Chris O (@TheOCcryptobro) May 26, 2023

The recent price action and the launch of OptionFlow’s public testnet promises potential bullish momentum amid the evolving DeFi landscape. As traders and investors watch the charts closely, the cryptocurrency community eagerly anticipates Cardano’s next moves in this ever-dynamic market.

(This site’s content should not be construed as investment advice. Investing involves risk. When you invest, your capital is subject to risk).

Featured image from Invezz

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In a recent development, analysts at asset management firm Bernstein have predicted when the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will likely approve the first Spot Bitcoin ETF.

When Will The First Spot Bitcoin ETF Be Approved?

According to the analysts, the pending Spot Bitcoin ETF applications could be approved early next year. They made this projection in line with the recent court ruling in the Grayscale case, which they believe could force the SEC’s hands. 

The court had ruled in favor of Grayscale in a case in which the asset manager argued that the Commission had acted arbitrarily and capriciously by not giving its Spot Bitcoin ETF application the same regulatory treatment it did to Bitcoin futures ETFs. As part of its ruling, the court ordered the Commission to review the application again.

Many saw this as a major win and proof that a Spot Bitcoin ETF was imminent, with Bloomberg analysts also weighing in and increasing the likelihood of these pending funds launching this year to 75%. They stated that “the unanimity and decisiveness of [the] ruling was beyond expectations,” with the SEC having little or nothing to hang on to.

The analysts at Bernstein also seem to adopt this view as they noted that the SEC would simply go the “middle route” and be more open to approving these ETFs rather than “inventing another reason for refusal” and sticking to the strict approach which they have taken on the crypto industry so far. 

This projection also seems feasible since the SEC must decide (approve or deny) on the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF by January 10, 2024. 

Considering that the court has overruled the primary reason why the SEC has continued to deny these applications, the Commission might have difficulty coming up with another convincing reason to deny the application.

Before then, the SEC will be expected to decide on some pending applications in October. However, the Commission can delay its decision on them once again. 

ETFs Integral To The Crypto Asset Management Industry

Bernstein’s analysts also project the crypto asset management industry to grow from its current level (between $45 to $50 billion) to over $500 billion in the next five years. These ETFs, which they project could launch early next year, are part of the factors they believe could spur such growth.

According to them, there will be increased demand from institutional investors in crypto assets, and funds such as a Spot Bitcoin ETF will be their go-to option. A Spot Bitcoin ETF will allow these investors to invest directly in the flagship cryptocurrency in a regulated manner.  

In line with this, they expect the ETFs to hold 10% of the Bitcoin and Ethereum market cap and “5-6% share for liquid crypto hedge funds.”

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With anticipation around Bitcoin ETFs from giants like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Invesco, and an expected halving in April 2024, forecasts for Bitcoin’s price next year show a significant range. From JPMorgan to Standard Chartered Bank, here are the most notable estimates for 2024:

Pantera Capital: $150,000

In their August “Blockchain Letter”, Pantera Capital, led by Dan Morehead, predicts a possible rise to $147,843 post the 2024 halving. Employing the stock-to-flow (S2F) ratio, they believe the price model suggests the valuation of Bitcoin against its scarcity will become more pronounced.

Specifically, Pantera Capital stated, “The 2020 halving reduced the supply of new bitcoins by 43% relative to the previous halving. It had a 23% as big an impact on price.” With history as a reference, this could indicate a hike from $35k before the halving to $148k after. However, not all Bitcoin supporters are on board, having witnessed failed predictions based on this model in the recent past.

Standard Chartered Bank: $120,000

In a recent research report from July, Standard Chartered Bank offered a bullish outlook on Bitcoin’s potential trajectory. The British multinational bank now expects Bitcoin’s value to ascend to $50,000 by the end of the current year, with the potential to soar as high as $120,000 by the close of 2024. This revised forecast from Standard Chartered marks an increase from their previous April prediction, where they projected a top of $100,000 for Bitcoin.

The upward revision in the bank’s forecast is underpinned by several determining factors. Notably, one primary reason cited for the potential price escalation is the ongoing banking-sector crisis. Additionally, the report sheds light on the rising profitability for Bitcoin miners as a pivotal factor influencing the price trajectory. Geoff Kendrick, the head of FX and digital assets research, emphasizes the instrumental role of miners. He notes, “The rationale here is that, in addition to maintaining the Bitcoin ledger, miners play a key role in determining the net supply of newly mined BTC.”

JPMorgan: $45,000 Per Bitcoin

JPMorgan, one of the world’s leading investment banks, anticipates a more restrained growth for Bitcoin, predicting a rise to $45,000. This forecast is influenced by the surging gold prices. Historically, Bitcoin and gold have shown correlation in their price movements, and with the gold price recently surpassing the $2,000 mark per ounce, it has bolstered JPMorgan’s conservative outlook on Bitcoin.

In a detailed note from May, JPMorgan strategists explained, “With the gold price rising above $2,000, the value of gold held for investment purposes outside central banks stands at about [$3 trillion]. Consequently, this suggests a Bitcoin price of $45,000, based on the premise that BTC will achieve a standing akin to gold among private investors.”

Matrixport: $125,000 By End-2024

In July, Matrixport, a prominent crypto services provider, predicted that Bitcoin’s price could surge to as high as $125,000 by the close of 2024. This optimistic outlook was based on historical price patterns and a significant signal: Bitcoin’s recent breach of $31,000 in mid-July, marking its highest level in over a year. Historically, such milestones have signaled the end of bear markets and the beginning of robust bull markets.

By comparing these patterns with historical data from 2015, 2019, and 2020, Matrixport estimated potential gains of up to 123% within twelve months and 310% within eighteen months. This translates to potential Bitcoin prices of $65,539 and $125,731 within those respective timeframes.

Tim Draper: $250,000

Tim Draper, a prominent venture capitalist, maintains a highly bullish outlook on Bitcoin. While his previous prediction for Bitcoin to reach $250,000 by June 2023 didn’t materialize, he remains optimistic about the cryptocurrency’s long-term potential. In a July interview on Bloomberg TV, Draper attributed recent regulatory actions in the United States, such as those against Coinbase and Binance, to BTC’s short-term downtrend.

Despite these challenges, Draper continues to believe in Bitcoin’s transformative power and sees it potentially reaching $250,000, albeit now possibly by 2024 or 2025. His confidence in Bitcoin’s ability to revolutionize finance and retain its long-term value remains unwavering.

Berenberg: $56,630 At Bitcoin Halving

The German investment bank Berenberg revised its prediction in July, pointing toward $56,630 by April 2024. This upward adjustment was supported by improved market sentiment attributed to the anticipation of the Bitcoin halving event expected in April 2024 and the growing interest exhibited by prominent institutional players.

Berenberg’s team of analysts, led by the insightful Mark Palmer, emphasizes their expectation of significant appreciation in Bitcoin’s value in the coming months. This projection is driven by two key factors: the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event and the growing enthusiasm displayed by significant institutions.

Highlighting their confidence in the market, Berenberg also reaffirmed its buy rating on the stock of Microstrategy. The bank has revised its share price target for Microstrategy from $430 to $510, driven by a higher valuation of the company’s BTC holdings and an improved outlook for its software business.

Blockware Solutions: $400,000

Blockware Intelligence, in an analysis from August titled “2024 Halving Analysis: Understanding Market Cycles and Opportunities Created by the Halving,” delved into the intriguing possibility of Bitcoin’s price reaching $400,000 during the next halving epoch, anticipated in 2024/25.

A central factor identified in the research is the role of the halving in shaping Bitcoin’s market cycles. The report asserts that miners, responsible for a significant portion of sell pressure, receive newly minted BTC, much of which they must sell to cover operational costs. However, the halving events serve to weed out inefficient miners, leading to reduced sell pressure.

With supply diminishing due to halvings, the research emphasizes that demand becomes the primary determinant of BTC’s market price. Historical data indicates that a surge in demand typically follows halving events. Market participants, equipped with an understanding of the supply-side dynamics introduced by halvings, prepare to deploy capital at the first signs of upward momentum, potentially leading to substantial price appreciation. This surge in demand is particularly evident in current on-chain data, validating the positive sentiment surrounding halving events.

Beyond these notable forecasts, there are a plethora of other price predictions for BTC, ranging from Cathie Wood’s (ARK Invest) ambitious $1 million projection to Mike Novogratz’s (Galaxy Digital) $500,000, Tom Lee’s (Fundstrat Global) $180,000, Robert Kiyosaki’s (Rich Dad Company) $100,000, Adam Back’s $100,000, and Arthur Hayes’ $70,000 prediction, underscoring the diverse perspectives on Bitcoin’s future value.

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $26,286.

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