Blockchain

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin long-term holders are making deposits to exchanges currently, something that could be bearish for the price.

Bitcoin Exchange Inflow CDD Has Spiked Recently

As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, investors have been making deposits to spot exchanges recently. There are two relevant indicators here: the “exchange inflow” and the “exchange reserve.”

The former of these keeps track of the total amount of Bitcoin that the holders are transferring to centralized exchanges, while the latter one measures the total amount sitting in the wallets of these platforms.

When the value of the inflow metric spikes, it means that the investors are moving a large number of coins to the exchanges. As one of the main reasons why holders may make such transfers is for selling-related purposes, this kind of trend can be a sign that selling is occurring.

Since selling activity occurs on the spot exchanges, the quant has restricted the exchange inflow and reserve indicators to track only the data related to the spot platforms.

The analyst has also chosen another modifier on the exchange inflow: the “Coin Days Destroyed” (CDD). In simple terms, what the CDD checks for is the activity of dormant coins in the market.

Tokens that have been sitting in wallets for a long time accumulate a large number of “coin days” (where 1 coin day corresponds to 1 BTC staying still for 1 day) and when these coins finally move, the coin days are reset or “destroyed,” which is the number that the CDD measures. The exchange inflow CDD naturally only keeps track of the coin days being destroyed through transfers to exchanges.

Now, here are the charts that show the trends in the 7-day simple moving average (SMA) value of this Bitcoin indicator and the 14-day SMA exchange reserve:

From the first graph, it’s visible that the Bitcoin exchange inflow CDD has registered a sharp spike recently. This would suggest that a potentially large number of dormant coins have been moved into these platforms.

Usually, the CDD having large values like these can be a sign that the “long-term holders” (LTHs) are on the move. The LTHs (defined as holders carrying their coins since at least six months ago) are the most resolute bunch in the market, so their depositing to exchanges can be something to watch for, as it implies that the market has made even these diamond hands waver.

As is visible from the second chart, the exchange reserve has also gone up alongside this spike in the exchange inflow CDD, suggesting that there haven’t been enough withdrawals to make up for these inflows.

It now remains to be seen what effect these possible selling moves from the LTHs may have on the Bitcoin price in the coming days.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has continued its stagnant price action recently as its price is still trading around the $26,400 mark.

The LINK price has been the best performer in the crypto top 20 by market cap over the past week, data from Coingecko shows. The cryptocurrency recently broke out of a critical level and a downtrend and seems poised to re-capture previously lost territory.

As of this writing, the LINK price trades at $7.70 with a 4% profit in the last 24 hours. Over the previous week, the cryptocurrency recorded a 12% profit while other tokens in the top 20 have mostly seen losses, with Bitcoin Cash (BCH) standing as the exception along with Chainlink.

LINK Price About To Start Uptrend?

When the LINK price broke below in early 2023, the cryptocurrency began to descend to its current levels. The price struggled to stabilize around $5.5, but once buyers stabilized the cryptocurrency around those levels, the token formed a sideways trend.

Since May this year, the LINK price has been moving in this trend with a high of around $8. The chart below shows that trader Rekt Capital believes the token’s recent price action spells good news for LINK holders.

The chart above shows that LINK broke above an essential trend after closing a weekly candle above $7. Thus, the cryptocurrency could rise to $10.5 before meeting any critical resistance.

If the token can extend its gains, the next target could see LINK hitting $16.5 as an ultimate stand for bears to take back control and prevent a full-on bull run above $20.

As of this writing, the crypto market, at least its two most important tokens, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), are playing along on short timeframes. These cryptocurrencies recorded a 2% and 2.4% profit in the last 24 hours.

Stars Align For Chainlink

In addition to the favorable winds in the crypto market, the Chainlink platform is strengthening its fundamentals. Today, the platform launched its Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) on the Coinbase-backed second-layer network Base.

This integration is set to onboard more applications and use cases on the Chainlink network. Thus, the underlying asset could benefit from greater appreciation in the long run. John Eid, Chief Business Officer at Chainlink Labs said the following about the integration:

Base and Chainlink are both building on the forefront of blockchain development as we work to bring the next wave of millions of new users into our industry. The scalability and technological creativity of Base as a layer 2 solution, combined with an ever increasing number of Chainlink services, is a boon for developers looking to build the next generation of cross-chain applications and services.

Cover image from Unsplash, Chart from Tradingview and Rekt Capital

Steven Nerayoff, an active participant in Ethereum’s (ETH) Initial Coin Offering (ICO), who is believed to know where the “bodies are buried,” has made further revelations in the ongoing ETH Gate saga, which boils on whether or not the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) gave Ethereum a ‘regulatory free pass.’ 

Lubin’s Piece Of Paper Appears In ETH Gate

After being pressured by a member of the XRP community to release the dirt that he claims to have, Nerayoff released a follow-up tweet that contained transcripts from an email that Ethereum’s co-founder Joseph Lubin sent to him personally on July 21, 2014. Lubin (whom Nerayoff now also refers to as #CrookedElbowJoe) also copied Fry, Bertrand, Vitalik Buterin, and Jeffrey Alberts in the mail. 

In the mail, Fry, Bertrand (there is an assumption that ‘Fry, Bertrand’ is one person rather than separate individuals) stated that the “opinion letter” was being put on a letterhead and would be forwarded to Lubin after. 

Following the revelation of this mail, a video clip surfaced where pro-XRP legal expert John Deaton gave his opinion on the mail. In the clip, Deaton suggested that the ‘opinion paper’ mentioned in the mail was the same one Lubin had referred to when he said he had a “piece of paper” in his pocket before the ETH ICO. Deaton also stated that Nerayoff got that piece of paper in Lubin’s pocket and that this series of events was extremely significant.

It is worth mentioning that Deaton might already have first-hand information as to what might have transpired between the SEC and Ethereum and how deep the irregularities run, as he has already been in communication with Nerayoff (under the Attorney-Client privilege communication). This is something that he revealed during his “announcement” last week. 

In an earlier tweet, Nerayaoff had also suggested that the ETH Gate was beyond just former SEC Director William Hinman’s speech, where he stated that Ethereum wasn’t a security. He said, “They’re hiding more than the motives behind the speech by #DirtyHinman.” He also used the hashtags #CryptoJudas (what he refers to Vitalik as) and #CrookedElbowJoe (Joseph Lubin).

What Is This Lubin’s Piece Of Paper?

Attorney Bill Morgan seemed to suggest that Nerayoff was indicating that Jeffrey Alberts and Fry Bertrand (who co-authored the piece ‘Is Bitcoin A Security?’ in 2015) were the same persons who wrote the opinion letter (which Deaton suggested was the same piece of paper Lubin spoke about before the ETH ICO). 

If so, he could be driving at the fact that Alberts and Bertrand (who happen to be lawyers) may have written this opinion letter to convince the SEC that Ethereum wasn’t a security before the ICO.

Meanwhile, Nerayoff reposted a tweet which had a similar theory. In the tweet, the X (formerly Twitter) user highlighted a part in Alberts’ bio where he was said to have “helped structure the initial public sale of ether.” 

The bio alluded to the fact that the SEC had concluded that Bitcoin and Ether weren’t securities, adopting the “legal interpretation Alberts had articulated years ago.”

The user also noted the relationship between Alberts and Marc Berger (who charged Ripple) as they worked together at the Manhattan US Attorney Office’s securities and commodities fraud task force. Marc Berger is said to be working with Bill Hinman now. 

Polygon (MATIC) has been treading in the water for much of September, caught in a tight range that reflects the uncertainty gripping the cryptocurrency market. As the altcoin hovers around the $0.50 mark, traders are closely eyeing a significant technical indicator that could spell trouble for its price trajectory.

The altcoin’s price, currently at $0.508295 according to CoinGecko, has shown signs of weakness, with a 2.4% decline in the past 24 hours and a 7.3% dip over the past week. 

However, the real concern for MATIC investors lies in the potential reversal from the down-sloping trendline. This trendline, intact since February 2023, has kept MATIC in check for months. If breached, it could unleash a wave of selling pressure that might push the price below the critical $0.50 level.

Polygon Faces Increasing Selling Pressure On The Horizon

Traders are well aware that when an asset approaches a long-standing downtrend resistance line, it often faces increased selling pressure. Analysts suggest that a reversal from this trendline could lead to an 18% price decline, potentially dragging MATIC down to the next key support level at $0.42. It’s a make-or-break moment for the altcoin, and its fate hangs in the balance.

For those who remain bullish on Polygon’s native coin, patience is key. A daily close above the resistance trendline would signal a significant shift in market sentiment. Such a breakthrough could provide the bulls with the momentum they need to initiate a recovery rally. If successful, MATIC may set its sights on initial resistance at $0.63, with an even more ambitious target of $0.69.

Polygon 2.0: A Potential Game Changer

Adding a layer of complexity to this price analysis is Polygon’s recent announcement of Polygon 2.0. This strategic overhaul envisions a fundamental shift in Polygon’s blockchain architecture and an expansion beyond Ethereum to include various other blockchains. Polygon aims to execute this transformation in the early fourth quarter, potentially paving the way for a surge in interest and demand for its native coin.

As MATIC teeters on the edge of a crucial technical juncture, the cryptocurrency market remains a battleground of uncertainty. Traders and investors must exercise caution and closely monitor developments around the down-sloping trendline. The success or failure of MATIC to break free from this resistance could determine its price trajectory in the coming weeks.

Moreover, the impending rollout of Polygon 2.0 adds an extra layer of anticipation to an already dynamic cryptocurrency landscape, promising potential surprises for MATIC holders and the wider crypto community.

(This site’s content should not be construed as investment advice. Investing involves risk. When you invest, your capital is subject to risk).

Featured image from Shutterstock

Renowned crypto analyst Rekt Capital has recently highlighted the pivotal nature of the Bitcoin price’s imminent monthly candle close. In a statement via X (formerly Twitter), he detailed that Bitcoin has tagged the $27,000 monthly level from the underside, meaning it is acting as resistance for the time being.

He explained that “the upcoming monthly candle close is just around the corner. Bitcoin needs to monthly close above $27,091 for this to be a fake-breakdown. Otherwise, the breakdown will be technically confirmed.”

To give this statement some historical context, the preceding month – August – saw a significant development for the flagship cryptocurrency. BTC registered a bearish monthly candle close, finishing below approximately $27,150. This data point, according to Rekt Capital, effectively confirmed it as lost support.

Reflecting on this development at the time, the analyst had conveyed that it is possible BTC could surge to $27,150, “maybe even upside wick beyond it this September. But that would likely be a relief rally to confirm $27150 as new resistance before dropping into the ~$23000 region. $23000 is the next major Monthly support now that ~$27150 has been lost.”

Is Bitcoin Following Historical Patterns?

Rekt Capital’s observations about Bitcoin aren’t made in isolation but are deeply rooted in Bitcoin’s historical price and cycle behaviors. Drawing parallels to previous patterns, he had previously shed light on Bitcoin’s tendencies around 200 days before a halving event.

“At this same point in the cycle (~200 days before the halving): In 2015, Bitcoin retraced -24% within a re-accumulation range, but price consolidated for months going into the halving. In 2019, Bitcoin retraced -37% as part of a downtrend that continued for months going into the halving.”

These historical retracements at a similar juncture have given rise to two essential insights, as stated by Rekt Capital. First, an immediate retracement has occurred at this same point in the cycle. Second, a repeated retrace of between -24% to -37% in 2023 would lead Bitcoin to retest its macro higher low, possibly pushing its price under the $20,000 threshold.

The analyst didn’t stop there. Accentuating the ideal accumulation phases for investors, he noted, “The best time to accumulate Bitcoin was in late 2022 near the bear market bottom. The second best time to accumulate Bitcoin is upon a deeper retracement in the pre-halving period.”

Shifting the focus to potential future outcomes, Rekt Capital made an intriguing speculation about the potential of BTC’s price movement post-halving: “If ~$31000 was the top for 2023. Then the next time we see these prices will be months from now, just after the halving. Only difference between now and then? In this pre-halving period, BTC could still retrace from here. But after the halving, BTC would break out much higher from current prices.”

To summarize, the upcoming monthly candle close for Bitcoin could have profound implications for the asset’s short-to-mid-term trajectory. All eyes will now be on whether BTC manages to close above or below the critical $27,150 mark – an indicator that could either confirm a technical breakdown or prevail over a historically untypical price rally.

At press time, BTC stood at $26,687.

Lawmakers in the United States have finally put their foot down and demanded that the US SEC Chairman approve Grayscale’s spot Bitcoin ETF proposal “immediately.”

US Congress Imposes Spot Bitcoin ETF Immediate Approval

A group of four members of the United States Congress sent a letter to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman, Gary Gensler on Tuesday, September 26 demanding the prompt endorsement of spot Bitcoin ETFs. 

The letter described major flaws in the US SEC’s rejection of Grayscale’s spot Bitcoin ETF proposal, stating that if the SEC is unable to provide an appropriate explanation for its different regulatory treatment of spot Bitcoin ETFs and Bitcoin Futures, then its rejection would be seen as an “unlawful” discrimination. 

The letter was signed by prominent US lawmakers including Mike Flood, Ritchie Torres, Tom Emmer, and Wiley Nickel. The lawmakers stated that Congress is tasked to ensure the US SEC meets all investment product requirements created by Congress. 

The members of Congress have also shown support for the initiation of Spot Bitcoin ETFs and stated that spot Bitcoin ETFs would ensure investors are properly safeguarded from investment risks since there would be better clarity on Bitcoin cryptocurrency. 

“A regulated spot bitcoin ETP would provide increased protection for investors by making access to bitcoin safer and more transparent,” the US lawmakers stated. 

A hearing between the US SEC Chairman and the Congress is scheduled for Wednesday, September 27 and Gensler may be subjected to intense scrutiny and questions on his rejection of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

US SEC Delay ETF Approval Yet Again

The US SEC has continued to delay its approval for Grayscale’s spot Bitcoin ETF  application since August 2023, requesting more time to deliberate on evaluating its actions concerning the proposal. 

Grayscale, a crypto asset management company applied to convert its Bitcoin trust to an ETF in October 2021. However, the US SEC denied the request, stating that the crypto asset investment firm’s proposal did not meet anti-fraud and investor protection standards.

Grayscale responded by filing a court appeal in the District of Columbia requesting the court to review the US SEC’s rejection of Grayscale’s Bitcoin ETF application. 

The digital asset management company scored an unprecedented victory against the US SEC after Judge Naomi Rao from the federal court of appeals ruled against the US SEC, stating that the commission’s rejection of Grayscale’s proposal was “arbitrary and capricious” because the regulator failed to explain its denial of spot Bitcoin ETFs after approving similar products like Bitcoin Futures in June 2023. 

In light of the court’s ruling, the crypto community and other prominent financial institutions like JP Morgan believe that the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs is inevitable. 

Presently the US SEC has delayed spot Bitcoin ETFs from several prominent crypto firms including Bitwise, BlackRock, WisdomTree, Invesco, Ark Invest, Galaxy, VanEck, and Fidelity. 

The commission is yet to respond to the demands of Congress and the crypto community awaits more detailed information in the hearing on September 27. 

Solana (SOL) has found itself in the midst of a price battle, with neither bulls nor bears able to establish dominance. The daily charts have revealed a story of indecisiveness, characterized by the formation of neutral doji candles. This hesitation in price movement follows a previous sharp decline, indicating that the bearish momentum is losing steam.

Despite the cautious optimism among bulls, the recent price action has been far from encouraging. The $21 resistance level proved to be a formidable barrier that buyers struggled to breach. This resistance level has been a key focal point for traders, as it represents a crucial milestone for SOL’s bullish aspirations.

As of now, SOL is trading at $19.05 according to CoinGecko, reflecting a 1.6% decline in the past 24 hours and a 5.2% dip over the last seven days. While these figures may seem discouraging, there is still a glimmer of hope for those betting on a bullish reversal.

Solana Watch: Key Metrics To Watch

Amidst the market’s uncertainty, technical analysts have identified an intriguing pattern on the daily time frame chart—a potential inverted head and shoulders pattern. This pattern is often regarded as a bullish reversal indicator, and its completion could be a sign of better days ahead for SOL.

The pattern consists of three main parts: a left shoulder, a head, and a right shoulder. The recent pullback in SOL’s price is seen as the completion of the right shoulder, setting the stage for a potential rally. The key support level to watch is $19 which, if held, could pave the way for SOL to retest the neckline resistance at $20.80.

Indicators Signal Caution 

While the inverted head and shoulders pattern offers a glimmer of hope, traders must remain cautious. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been lingering below the neutral 50 level in recent days, suggesting that bearish sentiment still holds sway. Additionally, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) has struggled to break through local resistance despite multiple attempts in September, indicating that sellers may still have the upper hand.

To flip the market structure bearishly, a price report notes SOL would need to breach the $18.58 level convincingly. Until then, the possibility of SOL forming a short-term consolidation range before making a potential upward move remains on the table. However, the current evidence suggests that sellers are not ready to relinquish control just yet.

The emergence of an inverted head and shoulders pattern provides a glimmer of hope for bullish traders, but caution is advised as key indicators signal ongoing uncertainty in the market. The coming days will likely determine whether SOL can break free from its current range and embark on a path toward higher prices.

(This site’s content should not be construed as investment advice. Investing involves risk. When you invest, your capital is subject to risk).

Featured image from Shutterstock

In a recent tweet, renowned crypto analyst, EGRAG CRYPTO, unveiled an intricate 4-month XRP price analysis which presented various crucial insights and predictions. This was encapsulated in his words: “XRP Steel Foundation & Eye-Opening Insights: Behold the chart below, crafted from 4-month candles, revealing that higher time frames are less susceptible to deceptive signals.”

The Steel Foundation Of XRP

Egrag’s analysis draws attention to two major price zones, zone A and zone B, each with its own ultra-strong support zone which he metaphorically describes as the “steel foundation”.

For zone A, which saw XRP trading between $0.00485 to $0.02483 from 2013 until early 2017, the steel foundation is identified by him as the price range from $0.00485 to $0.00596. The significance of this foundation is amplified by the fact that it remained untouched even during the harshest market downturns.

On the other hand, zone B, with its price range spanning from $0.25939 to $2.00, is marked by a steel foundation between $0.25939 and $0.32630. This has acted as a robust support from 2017 onwards. However, the weight of a prolonged bear market combined with external factors like the SEC lawsuit did manage to push the price momentarily below this line.

A critical observation by Egrag is that the price, when plotted on a 4-month time frame, has never recorded a close above the $2.00 mark. Drawing from this observation, Egrag speculates that breaking past this resistance is essential for XRP to revisit its all-time high of $3.40, attained on January 7, 2018. For this feat to occur, the cryptocurrency would need a surge of more than 580% from its current pricing.

More Insights From The Crypto Analyst

Egrag further elaborated that in June 2022, September 2022, and January 2023, the bulls tried and succeeded in preventing the XRP price from breaching the steel foundation, portraying a highly bullish sentiment. Moreover, the chart underscores the $0.80-$0.85 range as a significant historical point of contention.

XRP has continually failed to close above this threshold, repeatedly showing red during bearish phases. “The chart unmistakably highlights the 0.80-0.85 cent range as a historical battleground. The cryptocurrency has never closed a full-bodied Green Candle above this threshold, perpetually donning a red shroud during the #Bear market descent,” Egrag stated.

Another notable prediction from Egrag is that the emergence of a monthly green candle closure above $0.83 will set the stage for the next steel foundation which he calls the “the imminent transformation”. In simpler terms, this might be the last opportunity for traders and investors to purchase the token under $1, according to him.

Lastly, Egrag warns of the potential FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) rush when XRP hits the $2 range, indicating this could be a crucial zone for traders. Concluding his analysis, EGRAG CRYPTO encouraged the XRP community to remain vigilant and informed, promising to provide further in-depth visuals and insights on longer timeframes, such as the ASO bullish cross.

At press time, XRP traded at $0.5001.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) early delay of the ARK 21Shares Spot Bitcoin ETF application has raised concerns in the crypto community about what this move might mean for the potential launch of any Spot Bitcoin ETF this year.

No Spot Bitcoin ETF This Year?

In a tweet shared on his X (formerly Twitter) platform, Bloomberg Analyst James Seyffart questioned the SEC’s latest decision and whether or not it “may put the hammer down for any hopes of an ETF approval this year.” He further quizzed whether this means we could see an imminent delay on some other Spot Bitcoin ETF applications with a deadline in October.

On September 26, the SEC extended the time to decide on Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest ETF application until January 10, 2024 ( the final deadline). However, it is worrisome that the Commission had until November 11 (about 46 days to go) before making this decision but chose to do it this early. The SEC has usually made such a decision just days (and not weeks) before the deadline. 

Seyfarrt showed less optimism in a subsequent tweet when he stated, “Its so over. Everybody can pack up and go home now.” signaling that he had probably lost hopes of a Spot Bitcoin ETF being launched this year. 

Its so over. Everybody can pack up and go home now. https://t.co/wBsTHXCuEs

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) September 26, 2023

His statements are more significant considering that he, alongside another Bloomberg analyst, Eric Balchunas, had increased the likelihood of a Spot Bitcoin ETF launching this year to 75% following Grayscale’s victory against the SEC in August.

Amidst all these delays, the SEC is yet to make a statement regarding the Grayscale’s application as the court had ordered the Commission to review the application again. Many expect the Commission to appeal the decision, with the deadline for an appeal coming in October. 

Plausible Reasons For The SEC’s Early Delay

Many in the crypto community, including Seyffart, had two major theories on why the SEC decided early on the ARK 21Shares Spot Bitcoin ETF application. One, they attributed it to the potential government shutdown that is looming. 

The SEC is expected to be affected if the US government services were to shut down on October 1. The Commission will have to furlough 90% of its workforce and suspend most of its activities. However, it seems far-fetched considering that November 11 still seems far off, and government activities will have resumed by then.

The second major theory was that the letter that Congress sent to the SEC Chair Gary Gensler might have struck the wrong nerves, prompting the Commission to make such a decision. 

In the letter, the congressmen urged the Commission to approve the pending Spot Bitcoin ETFs following the court’s decision in the Grayscale case, stating that the “SEC’s current posture is untenable moving forward.”

Chainlink’s LINK price is moving higher above the $7.25 resistance. The price is now consolidating gains and might aim for more upsides above $7.50.

Chainlink price is showing positive signs above $7.25 against the US dollar.
The price is trading above the $7.30 level and the 100 simple moving average (4 hours).
There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $7.25 on the 4-hour chart of the LINK/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
The price could restart its increase unless there is a close below the $6.95 support.

Chainlink (LINK) Price Eyes More Upsides

In the last LINK price prediction, we discussed the chances of more gains above the $7.00 level against the US Dollar. The price did remain stable and extended gains above the $7.25 level.

The price even broke the $7.50 level. Chainlink traded as high as $7.56 and outperformed Bitcoin and Ethereum. Recently, there was a minor downside correction below $7.40. The price tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $6.60 swing low to the $7.56 high.

LINK is now trading above the $6.50 level and the 100 simple moving average (4 hours). There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near $7.25 on the 4-hour chart of the LINK/USD pair.

Source: LINKUSD on TradingView.com

If there is a fresh increase, the price might face resistance near $7.45. The first major resistance is near the $7.50 zone. A clear break above $7.50 may possibly start a steady increase toward the $8.00 and $8.20 levels. The next major resistance is near the $8.50 level, above which the price could test $8.80.

Are Dips Limited?

If Chainlink’s price fails to climb above the $7.50 resistance level, there could be a downside extension. Initial support on the downside is near the $7.25 level.

The next major support is near the $6.95 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $6.60 swing low to the $7.56 high, below which the price might test the $6.80 level. Any more losses could lead LINK toward the $6.60 level in the near term.

Technical Indicators

4 hours MACD – The MACD for LINK/USD is losing momentum in the bullish zone.

4 hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for LINK/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $7.25 and $6.95.

Major Resistance Levels – $7.50 and $8.50.