Blockchain

Solana (SOL) kicked off the month with a remarkable price surge, surging by more than 10% and decisively breaking through the local resistance level of $22. This substantial move has left traders and investors wondering if SOL has what it takes to sustain this bullish momentum and embark on a sustained recovery.

The breakout from the $22 resistance, bolstered by a notable increase in trading volume, suggests a heightened level of confidence among buyers. It’s a clear signal that they are poised for further gains, but the question that looms large is whether this momentum is robust enough to support a prolonged upward trajectory for SOL.

As SOL’s price demonstrates its ability to maintain levels above the $22 mark, a price analysis is eyeing an 11% potential gain, which could see the cryptocurrency challenging the $25 threshold. However, a broader perspective reveals that the ongoing recovery in SOL’s price is well within the confines of a channel pattern.

Solana’s Strong Start: Breaking The Resistance Barrier

The ascending trajectory of SOL’s price is expected to follow the upper trend line of this channel pattern. A breakout from either of these trendlines could serve as a catalyst for a directional rally, potentially amplifying the ongoing surge.

However, the resurgence in supply pressure, coupled with Bitcoin’s recent reversion from the $28,000 level, has introduced a level of uncertainty into SOL’s price action. Analysis emphasizes that this intensified supply pressure materialized around the $24 mark, leading to a minor pullback. This pullback is seen as a valuable opportunity to assess the support strength of the recently breached level.

At the time of writing, SOL is trading at approximately $23 on CoinGecko, reflecting a marginal 0.3% decline over the past 24 hours. However, the cryptocurrency has witnessed an impressive 20.5% surge over the past seven days.

The recent price surge has propelled Solana into the limelight, catapulting it to the position of the 8th largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. In this remarkable ascent, SOL has overtaken popular cryptocurrencies such as Cardano (ADA) and Dogecoin (DOGE). 

Charting SOL’s Course

This past week has been especially robust for SOL, marking its strongest performance since mid-July and recording a staggering 38% increase from its September low. However, it’s worth noting that these figures remain a considerable distance from the peak levels seen during the bull market.

As the price of SOL experiences fluctuations, the cryptocurrency faces key resistance levels at $25 and $28. If bullish sentiment persists, the path to $30, the high reached in July, appears open. On the flip side, SOL enjoys support at $22 and $20 in case bears take control.

Solana continues to shine as it surges up the market cap rankings. The coming days will reveal whether the cryptocurrency can sustain its momentum and potentially reach new heights or if it will encounter resistance along the way. 

(This site’s content should not be construed as investment advice. Investing involves risk. When you invest, your capital is subject to risk).

Featured image from iStock

Egrag Crypto, a renowned crypto analyst, delved deep into the XRP price trajectory in a recent tweet, highlighting the significance of the Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR) in analyzing potential resistance levels and charting out future price possibilities.

Using the VPVR metric, Egrag pointed out the Value Area High (VAH) and Low-Value Area (VAL) which demarcate the highest and lowest prices within the 70% total value area, respectively. He noted, “To me, it’s crystal clear: XRP has broken out of a multi-month trend line and has successfully retested the breakout.”

XRP Price Faces Stiff Resistance

This breakout, as Egrag emphasized, positions the XRP price for a notable surge. However, for XRP to chart a stable long-term trajectory, “Establishing a strong foundation above VAH is crucial.” He further highlighted the significance of XRP crossing the $1 threshold, describing it as both a “structural milestone” and a “psychological barrier.”

The VPVR, illustrated in Egrag’s chart, is an essential tool for traders. This histogram (on the right) captures volume traded at varying price points over a specific timeframe. It’s particularly adept at revealing the most actively traded price ranges, making it a robust tool for pinpointing support and resistance levels.

Egrag’s data suggests a VAL for XRP at around $0.16, a point of control (POC) at roughly $0.20226, and the pivotal VAH at $0.55. On the potential of the XRP price moving past the VAH, Egrag commented, “closing above the VAH $0.55 (in the weekly chart) will be an open high & FOMO will kick in and it could push XRP price to rocket-like levels.”

However, it’s crucial to consider that XRP needs to cultivate a fresh volume profile above $0.55. Presently, trading volume above this mark is scanty, which might necessitate an initial pause in the range between $0.55 and $1.

Egrag’s second chart reinforces this VPVR analysis. If bulls can conquer the $0.55 resistance, Egrag projects an XRP rally towards the $1 mark, a level last touched in mid-June post the Ripple summary judgment in the case against the SEC.

This previous brush with the $1 mark didn’t translate into a sustained surge, indicating the challenges of this threshold. Yet, with patience, Egrag envisions XRP marching towards the “next macro resistance” pegged at a lofty $4.5.

4-Hour Chart XRP/USD

On the shorter timeframes, specifically the 4-hour chart, XRP bulls have suffered a setback today. The XRP price fell below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.5273, which could threaten a fall toward the 200 EMA ($0.5168). This thesis could be invalidated if XRP recovers the 20 EMA at $0.5242.

XRP finds itself at a critical juncture as it grapples with a formidable resistance level at $0.54. The recent surge in XRP’s price has propelled it into this crucial resistance range, where it has made three unsuccessful attempts to breach in the past seven days. This repeated testing of the $0.54 mark underscores its significance as a formidable barrier for XRP.

Despite these challenges, a price analysis suggests that XRP retains the potential to attract strong demand if certain conditions align in its favor. Over the last three weeks, there has been noticeable accumulation of XRP, indicating growing interest from investors. 

This accumulation coincided with a previous rally that was sparked by a demand surge following a legal victory for Ripple. However, it remains to be seen whether XRP can find the catalyst it needs to break through its current resistance zone.

Ripple’s Singapore License Sparks Hope For XRP

Ripple, the company behind XRP, recently made a significant announcement. Its Singapore subsidiary, Ripple Markets APAC Pte Ltd, has successfully secured a Major Payments Institution (MPI) license from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). With this coveted license in hand, Ripple is now authorized to offer regulated digital payment token services in Singapore. 

This development is noteworthy as more than 90% of Ripple’s business is conducted outside of the United States, with the Asia Pacific region experiencing rapid growth in demand for its crypto-enabled payment solutions. Ripple has made it clear that it intends to prioritize the Asia Pacific region for the adoption of its offerings.

However, despite these positive developments and promising signs of accumulation, XRP’s price has struggled to break free from its current resistance line. At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $0.530038, reflecting a 0.9% decline over the past 24 hours. On a more positive note, it has recorded a 6.0% rise over the past week. 

While the cryptocurrency has managed to surpass the $0.52 resistance level and is currently trading above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), caution is warranted.

Analyzing XRP’s Current Price And Outlook

Market conditions can shift rapidly, and XRP’s future performance hinges on various factors. Traders and investors should closely monitor trading volumes and other technical indicators to gain insight into whether XRP can ultimately overcome the stubborn resistance at $0.54.

Despite recent developments, including Ripple’s licensing success in Singapore, the cryptocurrency has yet to secure a decisive breakout. As the crypto market continues to evolve, XRP enthusiasts and investors eagerly await the catalyst that could propel it beyond this critical resistance point.

(This site’s content should not be construed as investment advice. Investing involves risk. When you invest, your capital is subject to risk).

Featured image from iStock

In an interview with Tom Bilyeu, Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, shared an insightful analysis of the future dynamics he believes will shape the Bitcoin price. At the heart of Hayes’ argument is a complex interplay of global financial mechanisms.

Bitcoin Price May Reach $750,000

Hayes began by setting the stage for Bitcoin’s near-term movement, stating, “My working model is that we are going to continue chopping around $25,000 to $30,000 this year.” This forecast draws its foundation from the anticipation of impending financial disturbances and Hayes alluded to the consequences of negative real rates.

When nominal rates, driven by government policies, hover between 6% to 10%, he expects a wave of diversification in investment strategies. Cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, stand to gain significantly from such a shift. “As we get to some kind of financial disturbance and people realize that real rates are negative, if governments are growing nominal at 10%, 5%, 6%, though it’s high, people at the market will start buying other stuff. Crypto is one of those things,” Hayes remarked.

Delving deeper into the dynamics, Hayes extrapolated his prediction into 2024. He mentioned, “Either we face a financial crisis where rates plummet to zero, or we experience a slower increase in rates compared to government expenditure.” In both scenarios, Hayes anticipates a bullish outcome for Bitcoin, seeing it touch around the $70,000 mark by the end of 2024.

Key drivers, in his opinion, would be the Bitcoin halving event, an algorithmic reduction in Bitcoin rewards that traditionally impacts its price, and potential Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) launches by significant asset management giants in strategic global financial hubs, including the US, Europe, China (through Hong Kong).

The longer-term prediction, however, is where Hayes’ vision becomes even more expansive. He articulated, “This is where the real fun starts. In my mental model we can go somewhere between $750,000 to $1,000,000 per Bitcoin in the 2026 timeframe. Whatever the number is, it’s going to be a round number, just like Bitcoin hit $69,999. Then it is going down and gets crashed. 75% or 80%, it doesn’t matter.”

Hayes firmly believes that such an evolution will come amidst an unparalleled financial boom. Moreover, Hayes’ analysis is not confined to Bitcoin. Drawing parallels, he suggests that this monumental financial growth will cascade across other major assets. Indicators such as the NASDAQ and S&P, he suggests, will also see record-shattering performances.

“I think it will be the biggest boom in financial markets we have ever seen in human history. Bitcoin will have a ridiculous price, Nasdaq will have a ridiculous price, S&P will have a ridiculous price. Pick your stock industry. […] Not just in crypto,” Hayes predicts.

Money Printer To Go “Brrrr” Soon?

On a separate note, Hayes expressed his thoughts on the broader macroeconomic climate, specifically pointing toward the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy in a series of tweets on Wednesday. He conveyed a belief that if the Fed were to return to its aggressive money printing strategies, it could become a significant catalyst for Bitcoin’s upward trajectory.

One of Hayes’ core focuses was on an emergent phenomenon in the bond market called the “bear steepener.” This scenario, wherein long-term bond interest rates rise faster than their short-term counterparts, often serves as a bearish indicator for stocks and riskier assets. Hayes, diving into the complexities of this pattern, remarked in one of his tweets, “Why do I love these markets right now when yields are screaming higher? Bank models have no concept of a bear steepener occurring.”

Expanding on potential outcomes of a rapid bear steepener evolution, Hayes highlighted the risks. “The faster this bear steepener rises, the faster someone goes belly up, the faster everyone recognizes there is no way out other than money printing to save government bond markets,” he pointed out, suggesting a potential domino effect that could send Bitcoin, crypto and all financial markets soaring.

At press time, BTC traded at $27,619.

Pro-Bitcoin Presidential Candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has, at different times, jumped to the defense of the flagship cryptocurrency, BTC. This time, he promises to protect it if elected as President during the Presidential elections next year.

What Kennedy Wants To Do For Bitcoin

In an interview, the Presidential Candidate mentioned that he intends to end the “current White House war on Bitcoin.” This statement is in reference to the anti-crypto stance that the government seems to have taken against Bitcoin and other crypto tokens. 

It is believed that, instead of implementing policies to promote cryptocurrencies, the government has clamped down on the industry and its stakeholders. However, Kennedy plans to change that as he mentioned that he will ensure that people can keep their wallets (self-custody) and that transactions are protected, which could foster the use of Bitcoin and other crypto tokens.

Interestingly, Kennedy not only happens to be a Bitcoin proponent but is also heavily invested in the token, as he has up to $250,000 in BTC holdings. He is also ensuring that others get in on the foremost cryptocurrency, as he mentioned in July that he had bought two BTC each for his seven children. 

Meanwhile, aside from ending the White House war on Bitcoin, the Presidential Candidate wants Bitcoin (and possibly other cryptocurrencies) to be treated as a currency rather than a commodity. That way, Bitcoin isn’t subjected to capital gains. This is because cryptocurrencies are majorly considered property or investment, and owners are usually expected to pay tax on gains from a sale. 

This isn’t the first time Kennedy has made such an assertion. In July, he mentioned that he planned to back the US dollar with BTC and make the conversion of BTC to the US dollar free from capital gains taxes under his administration.

Crypto And Politics

Cryptocurrencies have taken center stage ahead of the upcoming Presidential election next year. Noteworthy is the fact that Kennedy isn’t the only candidate who has mentioned plans to stop the “war” on Bitcoin. 

Republican Presidential Candidate Ron DeSantis has also vowed to protect people’s right to own cryptocurrencies and end “Biden’s war on Bitcoin” if elected. He suggested that the current administration wasn’t so welcoming to cryptocurrencies because it poses a “threat” to them due to its decentralized nature. 

While these candidates continue to cozy up to the rising pro-crypto US voters, many are wary that they may simply be trying to do everything possible to get this particular group of voters in their corner and may not have plans to implement any crypto-friendly policies. 

However, a former SEC attorney has alluded to the fact that crypto regulation in the country may indeed be political and that there is a higher chance of enjoying a crypto-friendly regulatory atmosphere if a Republican candidate gets elected next year. 

Bitcoin Cash price is holding the key $220 support against the US Dollar. BCH seems to be aiming for a fresh increase unless there is a move below $220.

Bitcoin cash price is showing positive signs above the $220 level against the US Dollar.
The price is trading above $220 and the 100 simple moving average (4 hours).
There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near $238 on the 4-hour chart of the BCH/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
The pair could start a fresh increase unless there is a move below $220.

Bitcoin Cash Price Holds Support

In the past few days, Bitcoin Cash price saw a steady decline from the $255 resistance zone. BCH declined below the $240 support to enter a short-term bearish zone, like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The price declined below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $203 swing low to the $255 high. Besides, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near $238 on the 4-hour chart of the BCH/USD pair.

However, the bulls were active above the $220 support. The price found support near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $203 swing low to the $255 high.

Bitcoin Cash is now trading above $220 and the 100 simple moving average (4 hours). Immediate resistance is near the $236 level. The next major resistance is near $244. Any further gains could lead the price toward the $250 resistance zone.

Source: BCH/USD on TradingView.com

The next major hurdle is near the $262 level, above which BCH might start a decent increase toward the $280 level or $288 in the coming days.

Downside Break in BCH?

If Bitcoin Cash price fails to clear the $244 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $225 level.

The next major support is near the $220 level, where the bulls are likely to appear. If the price fails to stay above the $220 support, the price could test the $212 support. Any further losses could lead the price toward the $200 zone in the near term.

Technical indicators

4-hour MACD – The MACD for BCH/USD is losing pace in the bullish zone.

4-hour RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI is currently below the 50 level.

Key Support Levels – $225 and $220.

Key Resistance Levels – $236 and $244.

Ethereum price is struggling to stay above the $1,620 support against the US dollar. ETH must clear the $1,665 hurdle to start a fresh increase.

Ethereum trimmed all gains and now trading near the $1,630 level.
The price is trading below $1,660 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,650 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
The pair could start a fresh increase if it clears the $1,650 and $1,665 resistance levels.

Ethereum Price Holds Support

Ethereum managed to recover and stay above the $1,620 pivot level. Yesterday, we discussed a bearish reaction in ETH below the $1,650 level, like Bitcoin.

A swing low was formed near $1,585 before the price recovered above $1,620. It is now consolidating above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,742 swing high to the $1,585 low. It seems like the bears are active below the $1,650 level.

Ethereum is now trading below $1,660 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $1,650 level. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,650 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD.

The next major resistance is $1,665 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,742 swing high to the $1,585 low.

Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

A clear move above the $1,665 resistance zone could start a decent increase. In the stated case, the price could visit the $1,700 resistance. The next key resistance might be $1,720. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward $1,750.

Another Drop in ETH?

If Ethereum fails to clear the $1,665 resistance, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $1,630 level. The next key support is $1,620.

The first major support is now near $1,585. A downside break below the $1,585 support might start another strong bearish wave. In the stated case, the price could even visit the $1,540 level. In the stated case, there is a risk of a drop toward the $1,500 level.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is losing momentum in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $1,620

Major Resistance Level – $1,665

Bitcoin price found support near the $27,200 zone. BTC is now rising and might accelerate higher if it clears the $27,850 resistance zone.

Bitcoin is attempting a fresh increase from the $27,200 support.
The price is trading above $27,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
There is a key rising channel forming with resistance near $27,850 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
The pair could rise further and revisit $28,500 if it clears the $27,850 resistance zone.

Bitcoin Price Holds Support

Bitcoin price found support near the $27,200 level after a downside correction. BTC remained well-bid and recently started a fresh increase above $27,400.

There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downside correction from the $28,565 swing high to the $27,188 low. Besides, the price surpassed the $27,650 resistance and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.

However, the bears were active near the $27,850 resistance. BTC struggled near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downside correction from the $28,565 swing high to the $27,188 low.

Bitcoin is now trading above $27,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $27,850 level. There is also a key rising channel forming with resistance near $27,850 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The next key resistance could be near the $28,000 level. A close above the $28,000 resistance could start another increase. In the stated case, the price could climb toward the $28,500 resistance. Any more gains might call for a move toward the $29,200 level.

Another Decline In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to continue higher above the $27,850 resistance, there could be another decline. Immediate support on the downside is near the $27,500 level and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.

The next major support is near the $27,400 level. The main support is now near $27,200. A downside break and close below the $27,200 level might send the price toward $26,800 in the near term. The next support sits at $26,200.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $27,500, followed by $27,200.

Major Resistance Levels – $27,850, $28,000, and $28,500.

Celsius Network, a bankrupt digital asset lender, has revealed plans to begin repaying creditors using billions of dollars in crypto assets before the year’s end. 

The company presented a restructuring plan, outlined in a recent filing to a US bankruptcy court, which aims to generate funds for a new corporate spinoff known as “NewCo” and facilitate customer repayments.

Celsius Vows To Clear $2 Billion Debt

According to the filing, the plan outlines a distribution of at least $2.03 billion in cryptocurrency to creditors, with the actual amount subject to fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market. 

This distribution will occur as soon as reasonably practicable after the plan becomes effective, either through the NewCo transaction or an orderly wind down. The NewCo transaction, sponsored by the Fahrenheit Group, is a key component of the plan. 

It involves the creation of a new cryptocurrency company owned by customers, focusing on Bitcoin mining and staking. NewCo, which aims to maximize liquidity by listing on NASDAQ, will be managed by experienced crypto-native operators from Fahrenheit. 

The group has committed to injecting up to $50 million as an equity stake in NewCo, aligning the interests of Fahrenheit and creditors who will own shares in the new company.

In the event that the NewCo transaction cannot be completed, the plan includes an orderly wind-down option that would provide creditors with better recoveries compared to a Chapter 7 liquidation.

Celsius’s legal representative, Christopher S. Koenig, also revealed that the restructured company, expected to emerge from Chapter 11, will receive $450 million in capital and financial backing. 

However, the focus remains on the successful execution of the NewCo transaction, which would mark a significant milestone as the first revival of a failed crypto platform under Chapter 11, following the industry’s wave of insolvencies last year.

While the approval of Celsius’s plan is under deliberation by Judge Martin Glenn, some customers who have been unable to access their funds have expressed opposition. 

Additionally, an affiliate of Lantern Ventures owed approximately $82 million, has challenged the plan, claiming overvaluation of the new business by Celsius’s advisors. Clearance from securities regulators will also be necessary for the new venture.

It is important to note that if the new company were to fail, liquidation could become a possibility, potentially resulting in lower repayments for customers. 

Nonetheless, Celsius Network’s proposed plan represents a significant effort to repay creditors and potentially revitalize the company, providing hope for both the cryptocurrency industry and affected stakeholders.

At present, the native token of the company, CEL, is trading at $0.1535, reflecting a 1.1% decline over the past 24 hours. However, it is noteworthy that the token has experienced a notable upward trend in the last 30 days, exhibiting a substantial surge of over 21% during this period.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

For the last two years, Ethereum (ETH) has outperformed Solana (SOL), looking at the performance in the weekly chart. However, according to one technical analyst on X, this is about to change, especially considering the candlestick arrangement of the SOLETH chart on the weekly chart. 

Will SOL Outperform ETH In 2024 And 2025?

Sharing a screen grab, the analyst who goes by the handle “CryptoGodJohn” on X is optimistic, saying at spot rates, this can be the “right” time for traders to swap their ETH for SOL before the next leg up that will push SOL higher in the next two years.

However, whether this will pan out remains to be seen. What’s evident is that the path of least resistance appears northwards, looking at price charts.

At the time of writing, SOL is up 71% versus ETH from June. Moreover, zooming in closer, SOLETH prices are teetering around critical resistance levels. Although trading volumes are relatively light and cannot be compared with those of late Q2 2023, sentiment is beginning to shift and favors SOL bulls. The sharp expansion in the year’s second half could be a statement. 

The SOLETH is at 0.0134 ETH level, a liquidation level that was last retested in July and January 2023. If buyers push harder, lifting the coin above the 0.0162 ETH level at the back of rising trading volumes, bulls of mid-July will be confirmed. In that case, SOL might stretch gains towards the 0.0265 ETH level and return to the September 2022 zone.

Even so, although traders are optimistic, it is not immediately clear how prices will react at spot levels. As it is, the SOLETH in the weekly chart is facing rejection. The present bar has a long upper wick, pointing to a possible sell-off in lower time frames. 

Will Solana Bulls Reverse The Post-FTX Collapse Free-Fall Of Q4 2022?

Additionally, SOLETH prices are still defined by the early November 2022 bear candlestick. The bear candlestick is wide-ranging and has high trading volumes, pointing to the rapid conversion of SOL to ETH in a moment of fear. 

Around this time, FTX, a once-popular cryptocurrency exchange, collapsed. In 2021, FTX and Alameda Research, the trading wing linked to Sam Bankman-Fried, the CEO of FTX, invested $100 million in the Solana Foundation. 

It is said that FTX and Alameda Research controlled over 50 million SOL. The community feared that with FTX filing for bankruptcy, the over 50 million SOL would likely be sold to repay creditors.

In the sessions ahead, whether SOL will reverse the post-FTX collapse drop remains to be seen. Should it happen, SOL gains at least 50% versus ETH.