Blockchain

The XRP price has experienced a lot of volatility in the first two weeks of October, in contrast with previous months. This trend will continue as a critical metric hint at a potential “short squeeze,” a price move set to take liquidity from long or short positions.

As of this writing, the XRP price trades at $0.48 with a 2% loss in the last 24 hours. The cryptocurrency recorded a 9% loss in the previous seven days and operated as the worst performer in the top 10 by market cap, closely followed by Solana (SOL).

XRP Price Sets Trajectory For Short Squeeze?

The crypto market has been experiencing a spike in volatility since October. Following months of sideways movement by Bitcoin and Ethereum, the XRP price broke the trend and ignited new life into the nascent sector.

The spike in volatility was recorded when the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lost its case against payment company Ripple. A US Judge favored the company and deemed the XRP token outside of securities laws in the country.

This event propelled XRP to fresh yearly highs, but the cryptocurrency has been losing some steam. Uncertainty in the crypto market remains high, and any individual bull run seems likely to lose power, as demonstrated by XRP’s latest price action.

However, the current status quo is fragile, and fresh data indicates an aggressive move is in the making. A pseudonym analyst shared the chart below, showing the spike in the Bitcoin Open Interest.

The analyst claims that the metric stands at a critical point that often leads to sudden moves in the price of Bitcoin, XRP, and other cryptocurrencies. In the short term, this spike in volatility could lead the XRP back to critical support levels.

However, the most likely scenario is that the Short Squeeze, the sudden spike in volatility, operates as a tool for prominent market participants to take liquidity off both sides, longs and shorts.

Crypto Poised For Downside Price Action

On higher timeframes, the crypto market and more prominent cryptocurrencies could become an obstacle to any upside on XRP. According to another analyst, the sector is gearing up for a significant move to the downside.

The analyst bases this theory on the upcoming Bitcoin Halving. This event has a profound impact on all other cryptocurrencies, and right now, BTC is at a critical point in which historical data points to a deep retrace back to around $20,000.

If BTC follows this trajectory, XRP could return to its pre-SEC victory levels. However, this downside price action might provide bulls with the “perfect” opportunity to accumulate before an overall bull run unleashes its force on the nascent sector.

As News reported, historical data also points to a great performance for XRP in the year’s second half. The cryptocurrency enjoys a 30% return on investment (ROI) during this period.

Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview

Since its third halving event was successfully completed in early August, the Litecoin price has fallen off the radar of crypto investors. This was mainly due to the price decline that LTC experienced after heavy profit-taking from investors who had invested leading up to the price surge triggered by the expectations around the halving. But it seems the tides are finally turning for the coin as one analyst predicts a more than 30% increase in price going forward.

Litecoin Price Shooting For The Stars

The current crypto market headwinds seem to be working in favor of the Litecoin price which one crypto analyst believes is gearing up for a run-up to $83. In the post, the pseudonymous analyst identified as P_S_trade points to the possibility of the crypto market continuing its growth trend. However, this would be null and void if the crypto market were to reverse back below $27,000.

For Litecoin, the analyst points out that the altcoin has usually been the first to start to see an upside in the crypto market. But this has not been the case, as previously mentioned since high levels of profit-taking have affected the LTC price.

Even from the current level, the analyst’s chart points toward a possible retracement from here back down to $55. However, once this is completed, the bounce-off from there shows LTC reaching as high as $77 before succumbing to another correction.

This decline is also similar to the first instance where it falls to $55 in the fact that it signals another price surge. Following this second correction, the analyst puts the bottom somewhere around $67 before Litecoin continues its ascent once more.

The top of this second rally then lands just above $84 on the chart. Although there is no official timeline, the range of trades mentioned by the analyst is the medium term, which could see this run out for a couple of months.

LTC Daily Transactions Continue To Decline

While the analyst foresees Litecoin price to surge, other metrics could be pointing in the opposite direction. For one, the daily transaction numbers for the altcoin have been steadily on the decline since the halving event in August.

According to data from BitInfoCharts, the number of daily LTC transactions has fallen from over 584,000 in May to just shy of 104,000 transactions by Tuesday, October 10. This points to a lack of interest from investors usually brought on by bear market headwinds.

Additionally, the daily transaction volumes, as shown by the token tracking website CoinMarketCap, show a 13.26% decline in the daily trading volume of Litecoin. These bearish metrics could thwart chances of reversal. However, they could also signal the bottom that triggers the start of another rally.

Renowned crypto analyst Egrag delivered a fresh and in-depth XRP price analysis across multiple timeframes today. As of press time, the cryptocurrency stands at $0.4825, marking a decrease of about 12% since October 3, when it reached a high of $0.5478. Despite the bearish momentum fueled by the broader crypto market trend, Egrag projects bullishness on higher time frames.

Monthly Chart XRP/USD

On the monthly XRP/USD chart, Egrag took to Twitter to share his insights, stating: “XRP Monthly Bullish Pennant – Super Bullish Sign: Do you spot the pattern like I do? It’s incredibly bullish!” According to Egrag, trading on a monthly time frame reduces the chance of false signals.

He believes that a strong flagpole hints at a rapid price increase, and the ongoing consolidation phase forms the pennant. The current pause in the uptrend could potentially lead to further upward movement, especially if there’s a surge in volume after a breakout. For this scenario to occur, XRP shouldn’t break out to the downside, but stay within the two approximating lines until the breakout north.

By measuring the flagpole’s height, Egrag anticipates that XRP could potentially surge above $24 (on a longer time scale) if it manages to break out of the bullish pennant pattern.

Weekly Chart

For the weekly chart, Egrag commented, “It’s evident that XRP is currently undergoing a retest phase following its recent breakout.” This sentiment is anchored in the aftermath of the Ripple Labs case against the US Securities and Exchange Commission, where the price broke out of a longstanding trend channel.

However, the continued bearish sentiment in the broader crypto market, along with macro-economic pressures halted XRP’s momentum. Egrag points out the importance of the price range between $0.48 to $0.43, suggesting that maintaining above this line is critical. A breach could lead the cryptocurrency to retest the foundational zone between $0.25939 and $0.32630, which has shown robust support since 2017.

Nevertheless, if the altcoin successfully retests and stays above the trendline, Egrag envisions a potential retest of the key resistance at $0.58304. Surpassing this would pave the way for an impressive rally, potentially reaching $2. According to him, XRP would thus penetrate the next higher “steel foundation”, the area between $1.6188 and $2.

1-Day Chart

For the daily XRP/USD chart, Egrag’s message was concise: “XRP Army: Don’t miss the forest for the trees.” His analysis for this timeframe focuses on the “wicking” range of $0.3875 to $0.4719, which he sees as the possible dip range if the broader market pressure persists.

Only a drop below $0.3875 would negate the bullish pattern. If the cryptocurrency maintains between $0.4719 and $0.5119, Egrag sees no cause for alarm.

But for a bullish narrative to play out, the token needs to push beyond $0.5119, aiming for the $0.5738 mark, which corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Egrag emphasizes that breaching this level is crucial for a broader rally, targeting the 1,618 Fibonacci extension at $1.4694.

At press time, the XRP price fell below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and was trading at $0.4856, representing a loss of 3.3% in the last 24 hours.

The trial of the former CEO of the defunct crypto exchange FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), resumed on October 10. As expected, the prosecution called Alameda Research’s ex-CEO and SBF’s ex-girlfriend, Caroline Ellison, to testify against the defendant.   

Ellison Does More Damage To Sam Bankman-Fried Defense

According to a thread on the X (formerly Twitter) platform by Inner City Press, which was present at the trial, Ellison confirmed what was already known as she stated that she and the defendant dated for a couple of years with their on-and-off relationship, beginning in the summer of 2020. 

However, any affection or feelings that she may have had for the defendant didn’t seem to hinder her as she lived up to the hype as the prosecution’s star witness, providing key insights into how Sam Bankman-Fried allegedly misappropriated FTX’s customers’ funds through Alameda which she headed before its collapse. 

During her testimony, she admitted that she had committed fraud alongside the defendant. Specifically, she stated that Sam Bankman-Fried directed her to commit these crimes. As to her involvement, she collaborated Wang’s testimony while stating Alameda (and her, by extension) took “several billions of dollars” from FTX customers and used these monies for investments. 

Meanwhile, Ellison confirmed that Sam Bankman-Fried was the one who set up the systems and directed the trading firm to take the money. Besides using FTX’s customers’ funds for investments, Alameda also took around $14 million to repay its lenders. She also manipulated Alameda’s balance sheets, making the firm look risky to potential lenders. 

Prosecution Uses Ellison To Drive Home Major Allegations

In its opening statement, the Prosecution alleged that Sam Bankman-Fried diverted customers’ fiat deposits to a bank account linked to Alameda, which Ellison confirmed on the stand. She stated that FTX received money into Alameda’s bank accounts between 2021 and 2022. The total sum deposited was between 10-20 billion dollars. 

Alameda used some of these deposits to repay loans, investments, and stablecoin conversions like USDC. According to her, this summed up to about $2 billion. It didn’t stop there, though, as the trading firm used the other money for other Alameda-related purposes.

Sam Bankman-Fried and his lawyers have, at different times, tried to lay a foundation that SBF wasn’t in charge of Alameda and didn’t know what was going on at the trading firm after he stepped down as the CEO.

However, Ellison rebutted this on the stand as she stated that things didn’t change much, even when she became the co-CEO alongside Sam Trabucco, as she checked everything with Sam Bankman-Fried and directly reported to him. He also had the power to fire her. 

Wire fraud on lenders to Alameda Research and conspiracy to commit wire fraud on lenders to Alameda Research is part of the seven charges brought against SBF. As such, Ellison’s testimony is deemed critical (as someone with first-hand knowledge) in the prosecution’s bid to prove these crimes beyond reasonable doubt. 

In a recent interview with CNBC, billionaire hedge fund manager and legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones expounded on his bullish stance on Bitcoin amidst mounting global tensions and economic uncertainties.

Jones, an influential figure in the investment world, highlighted the current geopolitical environment as one of the most “threatening and challenging” he has ever witnessed and emphasized the importance of diversifying investment portfolios with assets like Bitcoin and gold.

Jones told CNBC, “I love gold and bitcoin together. I think they probably take on a larger percentage of your portfolio than they would [historically] because we’re going to go through both a challenging political time here in the United States and we’ve obviously got a geopolitical situation.”

Now Is The Time To Buy Bitcoin And Gold

Recent global events have exacerbated these sentiments. Over the weekend, the Israeli government launched a military response against Hamas following an attack on Israel, escalating tensions in an already fragile Middle Eastern region. Additionally, Russia’s recent invasion of Ukraine and growing discord between China and the US have further rattled global markets and economies.

In the same breath, Jones remarked on the US’s alarming fiscal position, stating it’s “probably in its weakest fiscal position since World War II.”

Responding to concerns about the potential impact of high interest rates on Bitcoin, Jones delved deeper into the dynamics of gold and market trades preceding a recession. He stipulated, “I think on a relative basis what’s happened to gold, it has been clearly suppressed. But you know that more likely or not we are going into a recession.”

Jones underscored a few hallmarks of recessionary trading environments, indicating, “There are some pretty clear recession trades. The easiest are: the yield curve gets very steep, home premium goes into the backend of the debt market and the 10-year, 30-year, 7-year paper, the stock market typically right before recession declines about 12%.” This decline, according to Jones, is not just plausible but likely to transpire at a certain juncture.

Additionally, he emphasized the prospective bullish market for assets like Bitcoin and gold during economic downturns, stating, “And when you look at the big shorts in gold, more likely or not in a recession, the market is typically very long; assets like Bitcoin and gold.”

Jones further prognosticated a substantial influx into the gold market, speculating, “So there’s probably $40 billion worth of buying coming in gold at some point before now and when that recession actually occurs.” Expressing his asset preference amidst the aforementioned conditions, Jones concisely noted, “So, I like Bitcoin and I like gold right now.”

Jones’s endorsement of Bitcoin isn’t new as the investor had previously championed the digital currency in several interviews, citing its potential as a hedge against inflation and lauding its immutable mathematical properties.

He once remarked, “Bitcoin is math, and math has been around for thousands of years.” By mid-2021, Jones even increased his Bitcoin allocation from 1-2%, labeling it as a “bet on certainty amid uncertain economic conditions.”

Jones’s remarks came at a time when the cryptocurrency saw an approximate 63% increase year to date, making it the best-performing asset in 2023.

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $27,116, down roughly 2% over the past 24 hours. Amidst the recent price drop, BTC initially found support at the 200-day EMA (blue line), which the bulls should hold at all costs to avoid further downward momentum.

Bitcoin Cash price is holding the key $205 support against the US Dollar. BCH could start a fresh increase if it stays above the $205 and $200 support levels.

Bitcoin cash price started a fresh decline below the $230 level against the US Dollar.
The price is trading below $220 and the 100 simple moving average (4 hours).
There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $217 on the 4-hour chart of the BCH/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
The pair could start a fresh increase unless there is a move below $200.

Bitcoin Cash Price Holds Support

In the past few days, Bitcoin Cash price saw a steady decline from the $255 resistance zone. BCH declined below the $232 support to enter a short-term bearish zone, like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The bears were able to push the price below the $220 support. Finally, the price found support near the $205 zone (a multi-touch zone). A low has formed near $206.59 and the price is now consolidating losses. It seems like there is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $217 on the 4-hour chart of the BCH/USD pair.

Bitcoin Cash is now trading below $220 and the 100 simple moving average (4 hours). Immediate resistance is near the $217 level and the trend line. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $255 swing high to the $206 low.

Source: BCH/USD on TradingView.com

The next major resistance is near $228 or the 100 simple moving average (4 hours). The next major resistance is near the $232 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $255 swing high to the $206 low. Any further gains could lead the price toward the $250 resistance zone.

Downside Break in BCH?

If Bitcoin Cash price fails to clear the $217 resistance, it could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside is near the $205 level.

The next major support is near the $200 level, where the bulls are likely to appear. If the price fails to stay above the $200 support, the price could test the $184 support. Any further losses could lead the price toward the $162 zone in the near term.

Technical indicators

4-hour MACD – The MACD for BCH/USD is losing pace in the bearish zone.

4-hour RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI is currently below the 50 level.

Key Support Levels – $205 and $200.

Key Resistance Levels – $217 and $232.

Ethereum price is struggling to stay above the $1,550 support against the US dollar. ETH could take a hit if it settles below $1,550 and then $1,540.

Ethereum is showing bearish signs and struggling to clear the $1,600.
The price is trading below $1,600 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,600 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
The pair could start a recovery wave if the bulls defend the $1,550 support zone.

Ethereum Price Struggles

Ethereum failed to start a recovery wave above the $1,600 resistance zone. ETH remained in a bearish zone and extended its decline toward $1,550, like Bitcoin.

It seems like the bears already attempted a close below the $1,550 support zone. A new swing low was formed near $1,542 and the price is now consolidating losses. The price is back above the $1,550 level, but it is still showing heavy bearish signs.

Ethereum is now trading below $1,600 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. Besides, there is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,600 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD.

On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $1,570 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,664 swing high to the $1,542 low. The first major resistance is near the trend line and $1,600 or the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.

Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,664 swing high to the $1,542 low is also near the trend line. The next major resistance is $1,620, above which the price could rise toward the $1,665 resistance zone. A close above the $1,665 resistance might send the price toward the main resistance at $1,750. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward $1,880.

Downside Break in ETH?

If Ethereum fails to clear the $1,600 resistance, it could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside is near the $1,550 level. The next key support is $1,540.

A downside break below the $1,540 support might start another strong decline. In the stated case, the price could revisit the $1,480 level. Any more losses may perhaps send Ether toward the $1,420 level.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is losing momentum in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $1,540

Major Resistance Level – $1,600

Ethereum (ETH) has maintained its spot as a leading altcoin. However, a recent analysis from Benjamin Cowen indicates that its journey, at least in comparison to Bitcoin (BTC), could have followed a better trajectory. 

In a space where past trends can sometimes indicate future outcomes, ETH’s price behavior, when viewed against BTC, offers a tale of potential concern.

Ethereum Stumbling Blocks In 2023

A leading voice in the crypto analytical community, Benjamin Cowen, expressed his lack of enthusiasm for ETH’s performance in 2023 during a YouTube video. The ETH / BTC valuation, a critical metric for gauging relative performance, is the bedrock for his statements.

According to his observations from monthly charts, Cowen’s analysis primarily orbits around the ETH / Bitcoin valuation, which has trended downwards.

The analyst cites patterns from 2019, a pre-halving year, where ETH’s value relative to BTC fell significantly. That year alone, the ETH / BTC valuation declined by about 49%.

According to the analyst, fast forward to 2023, and ETH’s comparative valuation has already plummeted by 20.56%. If Cowen’s prediction and the patterns from 2019 hold any water, Ethereum could be staring down a deeper abyss.

Yet, it’s not all bleak. Cowen remains measured, as he acknowledges the change the nature of “The Merge” brought on Ethereum’s ecosystem, believing it is a “game changer.” While Cowen wasn’t overly optimistic, the analyst refrained from forecasting ETH’s next moves, primarily due to the unpredictable ripple effects of The Merge.

The Merge: A Game-Changing Variable?

The Merge, a much-anticipated Ethereum upgrade, has already marked its influence on the ETH / BTC valuation. Ethereum’s weekly charts have been in a continuous downtrend following its implementation, creating further lows.

Cowen recognizes that The Merge, with its deflationary component, could mean ETH might not toe its historical line. This deflationary aspect could be Ethereum’s wild card, making its trajectory even more elusive.

Notably, while many parallels might be drawn between 2019 and 2023, such updates as The Merge means that Ethereum’s journey this year might still hold a few surprises.

Meanwhile, the Ethereum price against the US dollar has seen quite a bearish trend, particularly over the past week. The second largest crypto by market capitalization has plunged nearly 5% in the past 7 days, bringing its price to fall below $1,600 with a current trading price of $1,569.

Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin price is moving lower below the $27,200 support. BTC could decline further if the Israel-Hamas war escalates in the near term.

Bitcoin is moving lower and showing bearish signs below $27,500.
The price is trading below $27,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $27,550 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
The pair could accelerate lower below the $27,000 support in the near term.

Bitcoin Price Starts Descend

Bitcoin price failed to gain pace above the $27,800 resistance. BTC reacted to the downside amid rising Israel-Hamas tensions. There were more than 1200 deaths reported already by Israel.

The price is moving lower below the $27,500 pivot level. There was also a downside break below the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $27,185 swing low to the $28,284 high. More importantly, the price traded below the key $27,200 support zone.

Bitcoin is now trading below $27,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $27,550 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

If there is an upside correction, the price might face resistance near the $27,400 level. The next key resistance could be near the $27,500 level and the trend line. The first major resistance is $27,800, above which Bitcoin might test $28,250.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The main downtrend resistance could be $28,500. A close above the $28,500 resistance could start another increase. In the stated case, the price could rise toward the $30,000 resistance.

More Losses In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to recover higher above the $27,500 resistance, there could be more losses. Immediate support on the downside is near the $27,000 level or the 1.236 Fib extension level of the upward move from the $27,185 swing low to the $28,284 high.

The next major support is near the $26,500 level. A downside break and close below the $26,500 support might send the price further lower. The next support sits at $26,000.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $27,000, followed by $26,500.

Major Resistance Levels – $27,400, $27,500, and $28,500.

Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s leading cryptocurrency, continues to face challenges in reclaiming the $28,000 level amid rising US treasury yields, a stronger dollar, and geopolitical uncertainties. 

However, according to a report by the digital asset research firm Reflexivity, despite these obstacles, Bitcoin remains the standout performer among asset classes in 2023, with an impressive year-to-date (YTD) return of 63.3%. 

This exceptional performance has surpassed returns from US large-cap growth stocks (28%), US large-cap stocks (13%), bonds, commodities, and REITs, according to a report from New York-based Bitcoin investment firm NYDIG.

ETH/BTC Ratio Reflects Risk Appetite And BTC’s Strength

According to the firm’s latest analysis of the current state of the Bitcoin market, there is a notable importance in monitoring Bitcoin’s market cap dominance, which measures Bitcoin’s market capitalization as a percentage of the total crypto market capitalization.

Market participants often view this metric as a risk gauge for the broader crypto market. Just as traditional markets experience cycles, with early stages marked by capital concentration in a select few high-quality assets that gradually disperse into riskier assets, the crypto market follows a similar pattern. 

The cycle commences with capital concentrated in Bitcoin, then dispersion into Ethereum (ETH) and eventually other altcoins. The cycle concludes with capital flooding into high-risk assets, as witnessed in the memecoin frenzy of 2021.

The report’s chart illustrates the rising dominance of Bitcoin, indicating a healthy concentration of capital into the leading asset. Bitcoin’s sustained dominance suggests that the crypto market is stable, with significant capital still flowing into Bitcoin. 

Alongside monitoring Bitcoin dominance, another key indicator of risk-taking behavior in the crypto market is the ETH/BTC ratio, which compares Bitcoin’s performance to Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. 

The chart demonstrates a downward trend in the ETH/BTC ratio since the Merge in September 2022, which, according to the report, both Bitcoin dominance and the ETH/BTC ratio will be crucial to watch for any potential shift from a Bitcoin-dominated market regime into higher-risk assets. 

Bitcoin Eyes Bullish Momentum

After a two-month consolidation period between the $26,000 and $27,000 range, BTC finally experienced a surge of bullish momentum, breaking the pattern and climbing to the upside. 

However, the cryptocurrency’s upward trajectory was halted as it encountered a formidable resistance wall in the mid-term, reaching $28,600 on October 2nd and facing a significant hurdle at $28,700. 

This resistance level poses one of the final challenges preventing BTC from revisiting the $30,000 mark, last seen in August.

Despite the setback, Bitcoin currently trades above its crucial 50-day and 200-day moving averages (MAs), indicating the potential for another attempt to breach previously lost levels. 

Market analysts and enthusiasts are closely watching the $27,700 mark, as a successful break could signal the formation of a perfect ‘W’ pattern, with a target set at $28,100. 

On this matter, renowned crypto YouTuber and founder of Crypto Sea, known as ‘Crypto Rover,’ highlights the significance of the $27,700 level as a potential catalyst for Bitcoin’s next move. 

According to the analyst’s latest post on X (formerly Twitter), a successful breakthrough could reignite bullish sentiment and pave the way for a push toward the $28,100 target.

BTC is trading at $27,300, experiencing a modest decline of 0.6% over the past 24 hours. However, the cryptocurrency has recorded notable gains of 4.4% and 6% over fourteen and thirty days, respectively.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com