Blockchain

The XRP price continues to trade sideways on low timeframes as the crypto market faces a spike in selling pressure. While major cryptocurrencies will likely bleed into critical support, one analyst believes there is hope for the XRP Ledger native token.

As of this writing, the XRP price trades below the critical psychological level of around $0.5 and stands at $0.47 with a 2% loss in the last 24 hours. Over the previous week, XRP was one of the worst performers, recording a 9% loss.

Bitcoin Dominance Declines, XRP Price Will Come Out On Top?

A pseudonym analyst on social media platform X recently shared a chart showing a decline in Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D). This metric measures the amount of the total crypto market capitalization represented by BTC.

When the Bitcoin Dominance declines, the altcoin sector benefits as the metric suggests investors could move away from the number one crypto into other assets. The analyst indicated that the BTC.D stands at a critical level, facing substantial resistance.

In that sense, the metric could return below 50% of the total crypto market cap. The last time the BTC.D stood at current levels, the XRP price rallied above two major obstacles at $0.60 and then at $0.70. The analyst stated:

$BTC.D Got to the level where the $XRP Lawsuit win news came out. This caused a big altcoin rally at the time and also marked the 2023 top so far for $BTC and many other coins.

Altcoin Season Looming? But Something Needs To Get Out Of The Way

According to this analysis, an altcoin season might be on the horizon for the XRP price and other similar cryptocurrencies. However, the analyst believes the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) needs to decide on the spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF).

The narrative around this financial product has been gaining influence on the nascent sector, and if the SEC approves it, there will be much less uncertainty around the nascent sector. In the last 24 hours, some movement has been around the spot Bitcoin ETF applications.

This movement coincides with a spike in volatility across the board and could set the stage for fresh news that will trigger the altcoin season or push the XRP price back to critical levels. On the possibility of the SEC approving the ETF, the best scenario for XRP and other token, expert Eric Balchunas said:

(…) very poss there will be a few back and forths with SEC on these small but imp details. So I would not say approval imminent but I would say the fact that issuers are in a “back and forth” w SEC on this is hugely positive IMO.

Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin price lost support yesterday at around $27,000 and is now below a critical level that the last two times it was lost, resulted in a 50% or more decline. 

Will this signal returning once again forecast sudden doom and cause crypto prices to rain down another 50% lower?

Bitcoin Forecast Is Suddenly Cloudy

The last several weeks of resilience in Bitcoin price action have been seemingly erased this week, as price fell below support at $27,000. 

While the rounded psychological number is important by itself, BTCUSD has now pushed below the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud on the weekly timeframe. 

According to historical performance after falling out of the cloud, the top cryptocurrency by market cap continued to tumbled significantly lower to the tune of 50%. 

Will Crypto Crash Another 50%?

The Ichimoku cloud acts as dynamic support and resistance, and expands and contracts with volatility. Losing this support level in the past has had dangerous consequences. 

In March of 2020, falling out of the cloud on the same weekly timeframe resulted in a 50% flash crash over the next two weeks during the onset of COVID in the US. 

Later in May 2022, the LUNA collapse caused Bitcoin to lose the weekly Ichimoku cloud. It took over 20 weeks later to reach a bottom and a full 55% lower. 

$12,000 Or $42,000: BTCUSD Levels To Watch

Another 55% crash in BTCUSD would take the price per coin to around $12,000. More importantly, it would be disastrous for altcoins that remain down by 90% or more from all-time highs. 

The major difference between now and the last two times the cloud was lost, and that’s the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen in blue and maroon respectively (pictured below). Unlike the two past instances, these spans are crossed bullish whereas previously they were during a bearish crossover. 

If for some reason Bitcoin manages to hold inside the bottom of the cloud, it could next target the top of the cloud at around $42,000 per coin. If it doesn’t, “look out below.”

Charts initially appeared in Issue #23 of CoinChartist VIP. Subscribe for free to learn more about the Ichimoku cloud and what might happen next in Bitcoin.

A new report from Glassnode, an on-chain analytical firm, has buttressed recent data indicating Bitcoin holders are adding to their holdings. These long-term Bitcoin investors, often known as “HODLers,” don’t appear to be phased by the recent volatility in Bitcoin’s price.

 According to on-chain data, long-term holders have been rapidly amassing Bitcoin, adding more than 50,000 BTC each month to their holdings.

Monthly Accumulation Of BTC Worth $1.35 Billion

Bitcoin is currently showing signs of slowing down, as its price just dipped below $27,000. It would appear that short-term speculators are mostly to blame for the persistent selling pressure, as data shows whale investors are seeing this opportunity to buy more BTC at a discount rather than secure profits. 

According to Glassnode’s HODLer Net Position Change metric, long-term holders are purchasing an average of 50,000 BTC worth $1.35 billion at the current price of Bitcoin every month.

Another metric, the Long-Term Holder Supply, which measures the amount of BTC’s market cap with holders, also reached an all-time high of 14.859 million BTC. This means 76.1% of the total circulating supply has not moved in the past five months. Consequently, 94.8% of the total Bitcoin supply has not moved in the past month.

To back up this data of increased accumulation, popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez shared chart data from Santiment showing Bitcoin whales have purchased around 20,000 BTC since the beginning of October, worth roughly $550 million. 

At this rate, the number of BTC vaulted by holders is poised to pass 50,000 in October. This increased accumulation suggests that long-term holders remain confident in Bitcoin’s long-term potential and see this price correction as temporary.

#Bitcoin whales have purchased around 20,000 $BTC since the beginning of October, worth roughly $550 million! pic.twitter.com/47ZePiaIII

— Ali (@ali_charts) October 10, 2023

Bitcoin Supply Tightens

According to Glassnode, only 11.5% of BTC’s circulating supply changed hands in the last 3 months, indicating a prolonged inactive period of on-chain activity. That there are fewer transactions suggests that investors are unwilling to sell at the current price as the industry awaits approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. 

If this current trend holds, then the current downtrend could be short-lived, especially if sentiment among smaller traders also turns toward buying. A predominantly hold mentality would give the asset time to recover and establish significant support that serves as a bounce-off point for another rally.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $26,766 and is down by 1.31% in a 24-hour timeframe as it approaches the next major support near the $26,500 level. If enough large players accumulate at these lower prices, it may establish a price floor as bulls push the price back up.

As crypto analyst James Straten points out, Bitcoin could jump 50% as part of the correlation between the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and the price of BTC. 

Real-world assets (RWAs) are emerging as one of the next mega trends in the crypto space, and according to a recent study by K33 Research, Chainlink could profit in a big way from this trend. In a recent study, the research firm projected that LINK would be the “safest bet” to capitalize on this impending boom. This sentiment reflects the broader industry outlook, especially given BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s earlier comments in May where he noted the potential of tokenization in securities.

“The next generation for markets, the next generation for securities, will be tokenization of securities,” remarked Larry Fink during a New York Times DealBook event. He further elucidated that tokenization, which is the creation of a digital representation of an asset on a blockchain, would facilitate “instantaneous settlement” and notably reduce transactional fees.

What Makes Chainlink The Go-To Choice?

The growing interest in the tokenization of RWAs, which includes traditional financial instruments like private equity, credit, and bonds, has paved the way for the increasing valuation of LINK. Tokenization is no longer a buzzword but a mechanism to optimize financial transactions by reducing costs, streamlining operations, and enhancing transparency and accessibility.

David Zimmerman, an analyst at K33 Research, mentioned, “If we wish to have exposure to the RWA narrative and avoid being sidelined when it takes off, LINK is the safest bet.”

Global financial institutions and emerging cryptocurrency platforms are gearing up to leverage this trend. A testament to this is JPMorgan’s recent announcement about its first live blockchain-based collateral settlement transaction, which involved industry giants BlackRock and Barclays.

Chainlink, as a project, has strategically positioned itself in this domain, acting as a bridge between blockchains and the external world. The project’s unique system of oracles and an expansive list of partnerships emphasize its pivotal role.

“Chainlink, with its system of oracles and wide partnerships, is well-positioned to connect blockchains with real-world data, making it a strong player in the RWA narrative,” stated renowned crypto analyst Scott Melker, echoing Zimmerman’s insights.

Zimmerman further opined that while Chainlink might not record the highest gains in this RWA movement, its robust infrastructure and pivotal role in the ecosystem make it one of the most well-placed projects to harness the potential benefits.

Despite the undeniable potential and traction that RWAs have gained, Zimmerman highlighted potential challenges in realizing their full potential. Yet, the prevailing narrative’s allure is so compelling that we might witness “an isolated RWA crypto bubble” even before its tangible real-world impacts become ubiquitous.

Zimmerman’s advice to potential investors is to be patient. The recommendation is to wait for the token to hit the long-term support level of around $5.70 before diving into long positions.

LINK Price Remains Trapped In Trend Channel

The Chainlink price has been trading within a descending trend channel since June last year. Even the recent hype around the partnership with Swift and the SmartCon was not enough to push LINK out of the trend channel. In total, LINK has been rejected at the upper trendline six times, last on October 1.

A bullish sign at the moment is that Chainlink is holding above the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $7.19 despite the sharp correction in the broader crypto market. If this holds over the next few days, LINK could attempt a retest towards the upper resistance line.

If the support breaks, K33 Research’s scenario could come true and Chainlink could fall below the $6 price again. Thus, the support is instrumental in determining whether Chainlink is currently a buy or sell.

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson recently gave his thoughts on whether the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had given Ethereum a regulatory free pass as recent rumors suggest.  

Cardano Founder Alleges Favoritism Toward Ethereum

In an AMA session shared on X (formerly Twitter), Hoskinson mentioned that the Himman emails and other revelations expose the thought process of the SEC and show that there was unequal application, which he doesn’t see anything wrong with. Furthermore, he believes that none of the Commission’s actions presupposes corruption but only favoritism. 

It is worth mentioning that Hoskinson happens to be a co-founder of Ethereum. However, he was forced to exit the team after he suggested that Ethereum be run as a commercial entity rather than a nonprofit, but this idea didn’t seem to resonate with others on the team. 

As such, one can easily assume that there could be some form of bias in his statement, as he could feel endeared to Ethereum despite the circumstances surrounding his exit. Reacting to the clip, One X user stated that Hoskinson’s “old ETHGATE buddies” may have convinced him to make such statements. 

Meanwhile, others in the crypto community criticized his statement, emphasizing that there was really no difference between favoritism and corruption, especially when a government agency is involved. Some went as far as alleging that Hoskinson could well have been involved in the scandal and that he was talking “like a defendant.”

Himman Emails And Other Revelations A Big Deal

While Hoskinson may have tried to downplay the Himman emails and other revelations, they undoubtedly lay a foundation as to possible wrongdoings of the Commission. For one, the email showed that Bill Hinman had interacted with Ethereum’s co-founder, Vitalik Buterin before he gave his speech, where he mentioned that ETH wasn’t a security. With this in mind, Buterin could have possibly influenced Hinman’s speech.

There have also been revelations of how the SEC had close ties with Ethereum, which instantly presupposes a conflict of interest as it becomes harder to regulate or deal fairly with such a body without being influenced by external factors. 

Meanwhile, Steven Nerayoff, who was an active participant during Ethereum’s Initial Coin Offering (ICO), continues to allege that the SEC was corrupt in its dealings with Ethereum and that he has evidence to back up his claims. 

Pro-XRP legal expert John Deaton has also confirmed Nerayoff’s claims as he has seen this supposed evidence under the attorney-client relationship. 

In his announcement last month, Deaton mentioned that Bill Himman’s cross-examination would be of “epic proportions” and even offered to handle that personally if the SEC’s case against Ripple were to go to trial.

A meticulous analysis of the XRP/USD trading pair by renowned crypto analyst, Jaydee, has shed light on some compelling technical patterns and indicators. With the crypto community eagerly anticipating XRP’s next major move, Jaydee offers insights that hint at two critical price thresholds before a potential rally toward $5.

What’s Next For The XRP Price?

The analyst today shared the following 1-week chart of XRP and explained: “XRP – PATIENCE & ignoring the news is key! Let’s take a step back and look at a more macro view! Though short term may look scary (even w/all these irrelevant news), the weekly chart still creating ‘hidden bullish divergence’ on RSI/SRSI.”

Central to Jaydee’s analysis of the logarithmic scale chart of XRP/USD is the identification of a symmetrical triangle pattern. This pattern on a chart signifies a phase of consolidation, after which the price will either break out or break down. A breach of the lower trendline signals the onset of a fresh bearish trend, whereas a surge past the upper trendline suggests the commencement of a new bullish trend.

Jaydee highlights the significance of the $0.4797 support level within this pattern for the XRP price. The chart suggests robust support at this price level which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

The analyst also brings attention to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level which he sees as the lower end of the dip area. The chart implies that XRP could further drop significantly towards this area below $0.35. In the event of such a short-term pullback, this lower Fibonacci level could very well delineate a critical support area.

As remarked by Jaydee in the tweet, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stoch RSI have both formed hidden bullish divergences. The RSI of XRP/USD in the 1-week chart currently stands around 45.53, and is in neutral territory, not signaling any immediate overbought or oversold conditions. Yet, the divergence in the RSI presents a captivating narrative.

Jaydee highlights the hidden bullish divergence, where the price charts higher lows while the RSI is trending with lower lows, typically an indication of diminishing bearish momentum. This is usually seen as a bullish sign as it suggests that the downward momentum is weakening and could well be a precursor to a bullish phase. The Stochastic RSI stands at 7.66 and shows the same pattern. Overall, Jaydee’s forecast for XRP is bullish in the medium to long term.

In conclusion, the convergence of these technical indicators and the unwavering support at $0.4797 shows strong bullish undercurrents for the XRP price. Still, it is conceivable that XRP might face a further short-lived drawdown before launching into a significant bullish ascent. Assuming these patterns persist, a leap to a $5 pricing (green arrow) seems plausible as per Jaydee.

Feedback From The XRP Community

Delving into the commentary, Jaydee added nuances, stating, “Scary on the daily chart (glad we knew that 12% correction was coming). The weekly chart is way different compared to daily.”

When queried by a user named Steven about the potential implications of Bitcoin ETF approvals and increased adoption and utility, Jaydee responded, “Charts will still play out. May even have a ‘wick’ at higher levels on higher time frames. But the body candle close on the macro view is the true value, rather than any wicks. Wicks would just be “noise” caused by news. Didn’t all these bullish news REKT many already?”

On the timing of the $5 forecast, Jaydee candidly remarked, “Nobody can predict timeframe or knows when we would start getting the next impulse move up. I just placed an arrow wherever. Wait a minute… You really think we are God?”

Responding to a user’s inquiry about XRP potentially dipping to $0.35 creating a lower low, Jaydee clarified, “It would if a body candle closes there. But possible wicks can head down there.”

At press time, XRP traded at $0.4821.

Cardano’s price started a fresh decline below $0.250. ADA is testing important support at $0.2450 and might start a recovery wave.

ADA price started a fresh decline below the $0.255 and $0.250 levels against the US dollar.
The price is trading below $0.250 and the 100 simple moving average (4 hours).
There is a key declining channel forming with resistance near $0.2480 on the 4-hour chart of the ADA/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
The pair must stay above the $0.2420 support to start a fresh increase in the near term.

Cardano’s ADA Price Revisits Support

After a steady increase, Cardano failed to clear the $0.2650 resistance zone. The price formed a short-term top at $0.2668 and recently started a fresh decline, like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

There was a drop below the $0.255 support level. Besides, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near $0.259 on the 4-hour chart of the ADA/USD pair. The pair even declined below the $0.250 support and the 100 simple moving average (4 hours).

A low is formed near $0.2450 and the price is now consolidating losses. Cardano is now trading below $0.250 and the 100 simple moving average (4 hours). On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $0.248 zone.

There is also a key declining channel forming with resistance near $0.2480 on the 4-hour chart of the ADA/USD pair. The first resistance is near $0.250 or the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $0.2668 swing high to the $0.2450 low.

Source: ADAUSD on TradingView.com

The next key resistance might be $0.2560 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $0.2668 swing high to the $0.2450 low. If there is a close above the $0.256 resistance, the price could start a decent increase. In the stated case, the price could rise toward the $0.285 resistance zone.

More Losses in ADA?

If Cardano’s price fails to climb above the $0.250 resistance level, it could continue to move down. Immediate support on the downside is near the $0.245 level.

The next major support is near the $0.242 level. A downside break below the $0.242 level could open the doors for a sharp fresh decline toward $0.220. The next major support is near the $0.200 level.

Technical Indicators

4 hours MACD – The MACD for ADA/USD is losing momentum in the bearish zone.

4 hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for ADA/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $0.245, $0.242, and $0.220.

Major Resistance Levels – $0.250, $0.255, and $0.285.

Ethereum price is consolidating above the $1,550 support against the US dollar. ETH could decline heavily if the bulls fail to protect $1,550 and $1,540.

Ethereum is struggling to start a recovery wave from $1,550.
The price is trading below $1,585 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
There are two bearish trend lines forming with resistance near $1,565 and $1,590 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
The pair could start a recovery wave if the bulls defend the $1,550 support zone.

Ethereum Price Faces Resistance

Ethereum remained in a bearish zone below the $1,600 resistance zone. ETH is still consolidating above the $1,550 support and showing bearish signs, like Bitcoin.

The recent low was formed near $1,542 before the price started a consolidation phase. The price spiked once above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the $1,665 swing high to the $1,542 low, but upsides were limited.

Ethereum is now trading below $1,585 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There are also two bearish trend lines forming with resistance near $1,565 and $1,590 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD.

On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $1,565 level and the first trend line. The first major resistance is near the second trend line, $1,590, and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. The next resistance is near $1,600 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the $1,665 swing high to the $1,542 low.

Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

A clear move above the $1,600 resistance might start a short-term recovery wave. In the stated case, Ether could rise and recover toward the $1,665 resistance. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward $1,750.

More Losses in ETH?

If Ethereum fails to clear the $1,600 resistance, it could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside is near the $1,550 level. The next key support is $1,540.

A downside break below the $1,540 support might spark another strong decline. In the stated case, the price could drop toward the $1,420 level. Any more losses may perhaps send Ether toward the $1,350 level.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is losing momentum in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $1,540

Major Resistance Level – $1,600

Bitcoin price is sliding and trading below $27,000. BTC is still at risk of more downsides below the $26,500 and $26,200 support levels.

Bitcoin is moving lower and showing bearish signs below $27,000.
The price is trading below $27,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
There are two bearish trend lines forming with resistance near $26,950 and $27,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
The pair could continue to move down toward the $26,000 support in the near term.

Bitcoin Price Extends Losses

Bitcoin price struggled to start a recovery wave above the $27,500 resistance. BTC remained in a bearish zone and declined further below the $27,000 level.

There was a drop below the $26,800 level and the price tested the $26,500 support. A low is formed near $26,551 and the price is again attempting a recovery wave. There was a minor increase above the $26,800 level. However, the price is still facing many hurdles.

Bitcoin is now trading below $27,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There are also two bearish trend lines forming with resistance near $26,950 and $27,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Immediate resistance is near the $26,950 level and the first trend line. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $28,284 swing high to the $26,551 low. The next key resistance could be near the $27,400 level and second the trend line.

The second trend line is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $28,284 swing high to the $26,551 low. The first major resistance is $27,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average, above which Bitcoin might test $27,800.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The main hurdle is still $28,500. A close above the $28,500 resistance could start another increase. In the stated case, the price could rise toward the $30,000 resistance.

More Losses In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to recover higher above the $27,000 resistance, there could be more losses. Immediate support on the downside is near the $26,650 level.

The next major support is near the $26,500 level. A downside break and close below the $26,500 support might send the price further lower. The next support sits at $26,000.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $26,650, followed by $26,500.

Major Resistance Levels – $27,000, $27,400, and $27,500.

During the trial of Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of crypto exchange FTX, shocking revelations emerged from the testimony of former Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison. 

According to a TechCrunch report, Ellison testified that the crypto trading firm paid Chinese officials to unlock their Alameda trading accounts on OKX and Huobi in China.

Judge Lewis Kaplan clarified that Bankman-Fried was not charged with bribery in this case. Still, the evidence was presented to demonstrate trust, confidence, and motive between Bankman-Fried and Ellison.

Alameda Research Former CEO Exposes Hidden Payments To Chinese Officials

According to Ellison’s testimony, while Bankman-Fried was CEO in 2020, the accounts valued at approximately $1 billion were frozen. 

In November 2021, Bankman-Fried claimed that a colleague, David Ma, who had connections in China, found a way to unfreeze the accounts. 

Ellison, who had become co-CEO of Alameda by then, made crypto transfers totaling around $100 million to $150 million to reopen the accounts, unaware that the payments were made to Chinese officials. 

Ellison stated that Bankman-Fried and Sam Trabucco instructed her through a Signal chat to make the payments.

Before the accounts were reopened, Ellison revealed that Alameda employees explored various strategies to unlock the accounts, including involving lawyers and government officials. 

Ellison testified that they even considered using Thai prostitutes to open accounts on the exchanges to facilitate fund transfers, but these efforts were unsuccessful.

One Alameda trader, “Handi,” resigned in early January 2022 due to her objection to paying bribes to Chinese officials, as her father held a government position. 

Courtroom Clash

Ellison testified that Handi had a heated argument with Bankman-Fried about the matter, during which he allegedly told her to “shut the fuck up.” A month after Handi’s resignation, Trabucco asked in a Signal chat if Handi’s father had immediately reported them, to which Bankman-Fried responded with “lol.”

Ellison shared a list with prosecutors containing notes, one of which referred to a payment of “150m from the thing?” about the money transferred to regain the accounts. 

Per the report, Ellison explained that she did not want to explicitly state in writing that the payment was made to China to unlock the accounts, fearing that it could be leaked and used against Alameda Research in court.

Bankman-Fried’s defense lawyer, Mark Cohen, attempted to strike Ellison’s statement about avoiding written evidence of the payments, but Judge Kaplan overruled the request.

The trial continues to uncover new details and allegations, shedding light on the actions and motivations of the individuals involved, and the cryptocurrency community eagerly awaits further developments and the subsequent outcome of the trial.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com