Blockchain

Ethereum price started a decent increase after Bitcoin rallied 15% against the US dollar. ETH is rising, but it might struggle to clear the $1,850 resistance.

Ethereum started a steady increase above the $1,750 resistance.
The price is trading above $1,780 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,750 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
The pair could struggle to clear the $1,850 and $1,880 resistance levels.

Ethereum Price Jumps 10%

Ethereum remained in a positive zone above the $1,650 support zone. The recent pump in Bitcoin above the $34,000 resistance sparked more upsides in ETH. There was a steady increase above the $1,720 and $1,750 resistance levels.

The price even cleared the key $1,800 resistance zone. A high is formed near $1,849 and the price is now consolidating gains. It is trading well above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,660 swing low to the $1,849 high.

Ethereum is now trading above $1,780 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,750 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. The trend line is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,660 swing low to the $1,849 high.

On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $1,850 level. The first major resistance is near the $1,880 zone. A close above the $1,880 resistance could send the price further higher. The next key resistance is $1,920, above which the price could accelerate higher.

Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

In the stated case, Ether could start a strong increase toward the $2,000 resistance. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward $2,200.

Downside Correction in ETH?

If Ethereum fails to clear the $1,850 resistance, it could start a downside correction. Initial support on the downside is near the $1,800 level.

The next key support is $1,750 and the trend line zone. A downside break below the $1,750 support might send the price further lower. In the stated case, the price could drop toward the $1,700 level. Any more losses may perhaps send Ether toward the $1,650 level and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $1,750

Major Resistance Level – $1,850

Bitcoin price is up over 15% and trading near the $35,000 resistance. BTC could correct in the short term before it starts another increase.

Bitcoin started a strong increase after there was speculation of spot ETF being listed DTCC.
The price is trading above $34,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near $32,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
The pair could correct in the short term before it resumes its increase.

Bitcoin Price Jumps Over 15%

Bitcoin price started a strong increase after there was speculation of spot ETF being listed DTCC. BTC gained bullish momentum after it broke the $32,000 resistance zone.

There was a decent increase toward the $35,000 resistance zone. A new multi-week high is formed near $35,225 and the price is now consolidating gains. It is trading well above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $30,400 swing low to the $35,225 high.

Bitcoin is now trading above $34,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near $32,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The trend line is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $30,400 swing low to the $35,225 high.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $34,800 level. The next key resistance could be near $35,250. A clear move above the recent high might send the price toward the $36,200 resistance. The next key resistance could be $37,000. Any more gains might send BTC toward the $38,000 level in the coming days.

Downsides Supported In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $34,800 resistance zone, it could start a downside correction. Immediate support on the downside is near the $34,120 level.

The next major support is near the $32,800 level and the trend line. If there is a move below the trend line support, the price may perhaps decline toward the $31,500 level in the coming sessions.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $34,120, followed by $32,800.

Major Resistance Levels – $34,800, $35,000, and $35,250.

The Bitcoin price barreled past the $35,000 level on multiple exchanges about an hour ago and has continued to maintain impressive bullish momentum. The reason for the surge is once again tied back to the anticipation around a potential approval of the BlackRock Spot Bitcoin ETF and the expectations of it triggering a bull market.

BlackRock Spot Bitcoin ETF Listing Surfaces

The Bitcoin price rally was triggered by an image that has been circulated many times on social media platforms such as X (formerly Twitter) showing that the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust had been listed on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) under the ticker IBTC.

Usually, a listing on the DTCC is taken as a step for ETFs that are ready for approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Additionally, BlackRock, which is the largest asset management company in the world, reportedly told the regulator that it plans to seed its Spot Bitcoin ETF in October. So the asset manager looks to be readying for an October launch as well.

Related Reading: ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood Reveals Why Bitcoin Will Reach $1.48 Million

As Bloomberg Analyst Eric Balchunas explains, “Seeding an ETF is when initial funding is provided (typically) by a bank or broker dealer used to purchase a few creation units (in this case bitcoin) in exchange for ETF shares which can be traded in open market on Day One.”

It should be noted that just because an ETF is listed on the DTCC does not mean that it will gain immediate approval. Some ETFs will sit on the DTCC for months or years at a time before gaining approval to trade, while some simply never launch. However, given BlackRock’s influence, expectations are the company is doing this in preparation for approval.

Following The Bitcoin Price Growth Trend

The Bitcoin price increase has been mostly an ‘up-only’ trend with some pits and stops along the way. In the last 24 hours, the digital asset is already up over 14% with other metrics following swiftly behind such as market cap and daily trading volume.

Bitcoin’s daily trading volume jumped over 257% since the rally began, currently sitting at $44.7 billion. Likewise, the Bitcoin open interest has seen a 6.36% increase across all exchanges, bringing total open interest to $15.05 billion at the time of writing.

The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has also jumped to a six-month high, flashing a very greedy 66. This means that investors are more willing to jump into the digital asset and the evidence of this is in its rising daily trading volumes, as mentioned above.

The Bitcoin price has since retraced from the $35,000 level but continues to trade just above $34,500 where the bulls seem to have established support. A successful retest of the $35,000 resistance would set the Bitcoin price on a path to $40,000.

Paul Brody, a prominent figure in the blockchain community and the Global Blockchain Leader at Ernst & Young (EY), recently shed light on the burgeoning demand for crypto, with Bitcoin taking the limelight. Earlier today, during a CNBC interview, Brody emphasized the heightened interest, particularly from family offices.

Family Offices Lead The Charge

According to Brody, family offices, which typically manage the vast wealth of affluent families, are increasingly diversifying their portfolios with cryptocurrencies. This is not entirely surprising, given the meteoric rise of Bitcoin and its potential as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.

However, while family offices are diving headfirst into the crypto pool, institutional investors are more cautious.

Brody mentions that these larger entities, controlling over 200 trillion dollars in assets, are awaiting regulatory clarity, such as the approval of a Bitcoin ETF by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, before committing significant resources.

Bitcoin, despite comparisons, is distinctly different from traditional assets like gold. Brody highlights a unique trait of Bitcoin: its price does not result in increased issuance. Instead, the issuance of new Bitcoin reduces over time due to halving events.

This property makes its price more “rigid,” especially compared to other assets traditionally used as inflation hedges.

Moreover, the purpose behind acquiring Bitcoin varies among its buyers. Brody points out:

If you look at people who are buying Bitcoin, they are buying it as an asset. They are not buying it as a payment tool.

Brody further notes that Ethereum, another major cryptocurrency, is mostly acquired for its utility as a computing platform, particularly for business transactions and decentralized finance (DeFi) solutions.

Bitcoin To $40,000?

So far, Bitcoin has showcased a bullish trend, witnessing a near 10% increase over the past week and a 4.7% uptick in the last 24 hours. This surge has propelled Bitcoin to trade beyond the $31,000 mark, reaching $31,824 recently.

Observing the asset’s chart in the 1-day timeframe, BTC seems poised for even higher gains. As shown below, the asset has recently tapped into an order block and could continue its reversal to the upside, reaching a notable high.

Additionally, considering the strong institutional demand for BTC, as revealed by Brody, coupled with the potential approval of a spot BTC ETF, a rally to the $40,000 mark seems to be on the horizon.

Furthermore, peering into the future of the financial landscape, Brody believes that traditional fiat currencies will continue to hold their ground.

However, with the ongoing discussions around Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and the growing adoption of payment stablecoins, the crypto realm may be poised for evolution. 

With global political developments unfolding and pivotal elections on the horizon, Brody foresees Bitcoin and the broader crypto space experiencing accelerated growth in adoption and recognition.

Featured image from iStock, Chart from TradingView

Solana has gained the favor of institutional investors recently which has seen a marked increase in the amount of inflows that the altcoin has recorded. This trend has continued with last week’s numbers which show a significant amount of inflows for Solana compared to the likes of Ethereum.

Solana Inflows Reach $15.5 Million

According to data from the latest CoinShares report, the inflows into Solana for the last week came out to $15.5 million. This came while some altcoins such as Ethereum saw outflows for the week. For context, Ethereum outflows reached $7.4 million in the same time frame.

As a result of the latest round of inflows, the total Solana Asses under Management (AuM) has reached $74 million. This means that the Solana AuM is up 47% year-to-date, compared to Ethereum’s which has dropped continuously this year, climbing to $119 million in outflows year-to-date.

Cardano is another altcoin that saw inflows for the week but to a lesser degree. Its inflows were $0.1 million, bringing its total AuM to $24 million, with a $6 million increase year-to-date. Other investment products saw $0.9 million, leading their AuM to reach $76 million.

Multi-asset products, however, went the way of Ethereum with outflows of $0.6 million. This brings its AuM to $1.17 billion, a $31 million decrease year-to-date.

Bitcoin Dominates Inflows

For the same week, Bitcoin once again came out ahead in terms of inflows, with numbers topping that of Solana. The leading cryptocurrency saw $55.3 million in inflows, bringing its AuM to $24.205 billion. The asset’s month-to-date inflows are currently sitting at an impressive $111.9 million.

In the same vein, Bitcoin’s year-to-date inflows have also remained on the high side with $315 million in inflows so far. This has further solidified its position as the leading asset with the most interest from institutional investors so far.

Short Bitcoin products were also not left out of the inflow trend. Its weekly inflows sit at $1.6 million, while the month-to-date inflows came out to $4.5 million. Its year-to-date inflows sit at $46 million, bringing its AuM to $99 million. In total, the AuM of crypto investment products is nearly $33 billion.

“Following recent price appreciation, total Assets under Management (AuM) have risen by 15% since their lows in early September, now totalling nearly US$33bn, the highest point since mid-August,” the CoinShares report said.

CoinShares also notes that the inflows could be linked to the excitement and anticipation of a Spot Bitcoin ETF being approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). However, the numbers are much lower compared to when asset manager BlackRock first announced that it had filed for a Spot Bitcoin ETF.

Bitcoin has now broken the $31,000 mark with its latest rally. According to on-chain data, the level could be the next major milestone for BTC.

Bitcoin Realized Price Of 2021 Holders Is $35,000 At The Moment

In a new post on X,  analyst James V. Straten has discussed the profit/loss situation of the different yearly Bitcoin buyer cohorts. The indicator of interest here is the “realized price,” which keeps track of the average price at which investors in the BTC market bought their coins.

When the asset’s spot price is below this metric, the average holder in the sector is at a loss right now. On the other hand, it being above the indicator suggests the dominance of profits among the investors.

Here, Straten hasn’t shared the chart for the ordinary realized price for the entire circulating supply but rather a few versions of the metric that only consider buyers since the start of a particular year. The chart below shows the trend in the Bitcoin realized price for each year since 2017.

As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin realized price for all years except 2021 is below the current spot price of the cryptocurrency. This implies that the different yearly cohorts of the asset are holding their coins at some net unrealized profit.

The latest groups to enter into a state of profit have been the 2022+ and 2023+ ones. The 2021+ group has a realized price of about $35,000 at the moment, which is still a significant distance away, but as Straten has noted, the gap between the spot price and the metric is now the narrowest since the two diverged back at the start of the bear market.

Interestingly, during the peak in 2021, this group’s cost basis was around $48,000. The analyst suggests their realized price, since decreasing significantly, indicates some impressive Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) in the market.

In on-chain analysis, major cost basis levels have always played an important role, as the BTC spot price has often observed support or resistance on retests of them.

The chart shows that the Bitcoin price had found support at the 2023+ realized price back in June. The recent seemingly endless consolidation that BTC saw before the latest rally happened around the 2022+ and 2023+ metrics after they had overlapped.

Given the historical examples, the 2021+ may realize price will cause the price to react somehow when it eventually reaches there. Thus, the $35,000 level would be a significant milestone for the asset, as successfully claiming it could imply clear waters ahead for the cryptocurrency.

At the same time, however, the chances of participants buckling and harvesting their gains are increasing with all these groups coming into profits. Such profit-taking can lead to a pullback in the price, at least in the short term.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $31,200, up 11% in the past week.

The Bitcoin market dynamics have recently taken an interesting turn, suggests Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy. According to his recent thread on X, the options market makers in BTC are currently operating in a position that could significantly amplify any upward movement in its price.

“Options market makers in Bitcoin are increasingly short gamma as BTC spot price moves up. […] This should amplify the explosiveness of any short-term upward move in the near term,” Thorn notes.

This implies that as the spot price of Bitcoin rises, these market makers have to buy back more of the cryptocurrency to maintain their positions, a phenomenon that could potentially amplify price surges.

The Greatest Show On Earth: Bitcoin

Moreover, he highlighted that data from Amber indicates that dealers are increasingly moving into a short gamma position, especially when the BTC price is above $28.5k. In more explicit terms, Thorn explains, “At $32.5k, market makers need to buy $20 million of delta for every subsequent 1% move higher.” Such positioning suggests that market makers might have to make substantial purchases of Bitcoin as the spot price continues to ascend.

However, it’s not just upward movements that are impacted. Thorn sheds light on the flip side of the coin as well. “Dealers are long gamma in the $26,750-28,250 range. When you’re long gamma & spot declines, you also have to buy back spot to stay delta neutral,” he comments. This means that any minor downward adjustment in price might find resistance as options dealers make necessary purchases to realign their positions.

For bullish investors, these dynamics present an attractive landscape. Thorn elucidates, “This is a great setup for bulls because if spot moves moderately higher, short gamma covering could make it rip much higher pretty quickly, but if it moves lower, long gamma covering could provide some support and limit near-term downside.”

Highlighting potential catalysts that might set the Bitcoin spot price in motion, Thorn pointed to the growing anticipation surrounding Bitcoin ETF approvals. Most recently, renowned personalities and institutions such as Cathie Wood, Paul Grewal, JP Morgan, and several analysts from Bloomberg Intelligence have expressed positive sentiments on the odds for approval.

Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart of Bloomberg predict that the odds of a spot Bitcoin ETF are 75% by the end of this year and 95% by the end of 2024. Additionally, Thorn mentions the recent surge in Bitcoin’s price above $31,000, suggesting it surpassed last month’s highs following the fake news of an ETF approval.

Beyond market sentiments and speculations, fundamental supply, and liquidity dynamics also play a role. Thorn mentions, “Bitcoin’s currently constrained supply and liquidity could also serve to amplify upward moves.” Notably, exchange balances of Bitcoin have plummeted to levels not seen since 2018.

Simultaneously, smaller entities are accumulating Bitcoin, while larger holders, often termed “whales,” appear to be reducing their positions. He underscores the strength of the Bitcoin community with a note on hodlers: “70% of supply has not transacted in 1+ years, 30% in 5+ years… ATHs both.”

With all these dynamics at play, Thorn aptly sums up the current state of the Bitcoin market: “The next several months will be very interesting — Bitcoin is the greatest show on earth.”

At press time, BTC traded at $30,676.

Many crypto analysts have a list of crypto tokens that they expect to make a run when the bull market returns. Sadly, Cardano (ADA) hasn’t made the list as crypto analyst Lady of Crypto has outlined five reasons why the crypto token will not perform well during that period.

Cardano’s Flaws Might Be ADA’s Downfall

In a video posted on her YouTube channel, the first reason she stated was that Cardano had a slow development pace and that it could not thrive in a fast-paced crypto industry. She alluded to the time when the blockchain network experienced a delay in the Vasil hard fork and other times when there have been network congestions and an increase in transaction fees. 

According to her, Cardano is going to continue to fall behind its competition until one day when the network becomes “insignificant.”

Secondly, Lady of Crypto mentioned that no one was using the Cardano blockchain. She used data from the crypto analytics platform DefiLlama to drive home her point. Her assertion was based on the daily active users, protocols built on the network, and network’s total value locked (TVL), of which Cardano ranked 13th, 30th, and 15th, respectively, at the time of her making the video. 

While these rankings might not be bad, she noted that it is bad for Cardano, which positions itself as one of the “blue-chip cryptos” as it suggests that it is underperforming. 

The third reason seemed to relate to her first reason, as she noted that Cardano was slow and expensive compared to its competitors. She noted that Cardano’s average transaction speed is 20 seconds, which is slower than other networks like Ethereum, Solana, Arbitrum, Polygon, and Avalanche. Transaction fees on the network are also expensive compared to those other networks.

Cardano Is Overhyped

The Lady of Crypto went on to the fourth reason, where she stated that the network was overhyped, and although the adjective may be subjective, she doesn’t believe that applies in this case. 

She noted that Cardano has a partnership with McCann Dublin, a global advertising and marketing agency, which has helped to bring about this “manufactured hype” alongside the help of the network’s “cult following.” She suggested that all this hype was just talk, as there was no substance to back it up. 

The last reason is the fact that Cardano doesn’t seem to have any real-world adoption. Although the blockchain company has at different times announced partnerships with governments and institutions, the tangible results of these partnerships are non-existent.”

Despite her position on ADA, the Lady of Crypto, at different times, showed her respect for Cardano’s founder, Charles Hoskinson, and mentioned that she was down to have a chat with him where he rebuts her stance on the network’s ecosystem. 

Bitcoin price action has been known to go “parabolic” when speculation in the crypto market is in full gear. Prices begin to rise rapidly with very few pullbacks in between.

According to evidence, a parabolic structure is possibly building that could cause BTCUSD to “double” in a short amount of time. And with the first ever digital asset now above $30K per coin, it means a potential monstrous move to $60K could be on the horizon.

Why BTC Could Teleport To $60K

In technical analysis, an asset is said to have gone “parabolic” when an increasingly steep upward curve supports a series of higher highs and higher lows.

Parabola typically forms in a sideways, horizontal range. After each higher low, price accelerates further, causing the angle of the slope to nearly go vertical.

Bitcoin has done this several times throughout its short history. And after the longest bear market on record, the cryptocurrency could be ready for another parabolic rally.

Bases Loaded, Bitcoin Number Up

A comparison with the iconic parabolic curve example, possibly puts Bitcoin price at what would be the third touch and third base of a four-base pattern. A rounded parabolic curve is supporting a series of high timeframe higher lows.

Base three is significant because it is said to produce a move where the asset “doubles in the shortest period of time.” With Bitcoin near $30K, $60K could be right around the corner if this is an accurate patter.

Above base three is base four, meaning there is yet another zone of consolidation somewhere above that will touch down on the curved parabolic trend line a final time. From there, the next time it touches the curved line will be after a peak of the parabolic rally.

Will Crypto Parabola Begin Again?

Don’t believe this structure is possible in Bitcoin? Simply take a look at past cycles for an example. In the above chart, Bitcoin formed several bases in a row. After touching the X, price didn’t just “double,” it did 1,700% ROI. Even then, BTCUSD wasn’t done climbing, rallying another 700% from base four.

These figures aren’t probable again, but it speaks to the fact that something big very well could be coming soon.

On-chain data shows the Chainlink MVRV ratio has shot up as LINK has rallied above $10, a sign that a steep correction may be due for the asset.

Chainlink 30-Day MVRV Ratio Has Crossed The Bearish 20% Mark

As explained by an analyst in a post on X, the last three times the LINK MVRV ratio hit similar levels as now, the cryptocurrency registered a sharp drawdown. The “MVRV ratio” (where MVRV stands for Market Value to Realized Value) is an indicator that measures the ratio between the Chainlink market cap and the realized cap.

The realized cap here refers to a LINK capitalization model that assumes the true value of each coin in circulation isn’t the same as the asset’s spot price, but rather the price at which the coin last moved on the blockchain.

This price at which the coin was last transferred could be imagined to be the value at which its holder bought it, so the realized cap takes into account the prices at which each investor in the market acquired their LINK.

Thus, the realized cap is essentially a measure of the total amount of capital the holders as a whole have invested into Chainlink. Since the MVRV ratio compares the market cap with this metric, it can provide us with info about the profit/loss situation of the investors.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 7-day moving average (MA) of the ChainlinK MVRV ratio over the past year and a half:

Note that in the above graph, the MVRV ratio shown isn’t just the ordinary version, but rather the 30-day one. What this means is that this indicator only takes into account the data of coins that were moved within the past month.

From the chart, it’s visible that the Chainlink 30-day MVRV ratio has observed a strong rise recently as the price of the cryptocurrency has enjoyed sharp upward momentum.

The metric has crossed the 21% mark with this increase, suggesting that the investors who bought within the last 30 days are holding 21% more in value than what they put in.

Usually, the more the profits held by the investors, the greater their probability of giving in to the allure of profit-taking. As such, whenever the investors are carrying a high amount of profits, the risk of a correction taking place can become significant.

In the current case, the Chainlink investors are those who only bought within the past 30 days, which means that this cohort is bound to have fickle-minded hands who would easily be tempted to harvest their gains.

As the analyst has marked in the chart, it would appear that the last three times the MVRV ratio crossed above 20% for this group, the LINK price observed a sharp decline.

In the first two cases, this drawdown was 34% each, while in the third and latest one, it was about 14%, which is still quite a notable drop. If this pattern is anything to go by, Chainlink may see another such correction soon.

LINK Price

Chainlink has seen another 9% rise during the last 24 hours as its price has now broken above the $10.1 mark.