Blockchain

The month of October just drew to a close and Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market has ushered in the new month of November. With October proving to be an incredibly bullish month for Bitcoin with a green monthly close, eyes are now on the new month and what possibilities it could hold for the digital asset.

October Was A Good Month For Bitcoin

Looking back to the month of October, it has been one of the best months so far for 2023. The price of BTC started out at around $28,000 and closed out the month above $34,000. In total, the return for Bitcoin in the month of October was 28.5%.

In comparison to the previous months, only one month has surpassed October and that was the month of January. Bitcoin also benefited from a green price close in the month of September, albeit with meager gains of 3.99%.

2023 has also turned out to be a year of good returns with six months out of the last 10 months closing in the green. The months of August, May, and July were the only months with significant losses of 11.2%, 7.1%, and 4.04%, respectively. While February closes out with small losses of -0.01%.

How November Is Looking For BTC Price

The first day of November is already starting out with losses for the price of BTC but it is still early for the digital asset to pick back up. Historically though, especially over the last five years, Bitcoin has recorded poor performance in the month of November.

In 2022, the infamous FTX crash took the Bitcoin price from above $21,400 to below $16,000, and the month ended with 16.1% losses. The same was the case for the previous year in 2021 when the crypto bull market began to wind down. That month ended up with a red close of -7.12%.

2020 was different in the fact that Bitcoin saw a 42.9% increase in November, which was the year the bull market began. But 2023 is more closely similar to the year 2019 because they’re both the year before the Bitcoin halving takes place and November suffered losses in 2019.

If Bitcoin keeps to the November trend similar to 2019, then it is possible that the digital asset will reverse its October gains this month. A 17% decline would mean a fall back to the $28,000 level, which would wipe around $6,000 off its current value.

However, Bitcoin has been known to buck historical trends in various cases, so there could be a change in the trend. For example, in 2015, the year before the 2016 Bitcoin halving, Bitcoin price saw a 19.8% increase by the time November was over. This shows that nothing is set in stone when it comes to Bitcoin.

In a recent report by Messari, the analysis sheds light on the developments and challenges faced by Binance Chain (BNB), the blockchain created by Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange regarding trading volume. 

The report highlights the separation of BNB Chain from Binance and various events and allegations that have impacted Binance and its associated entities throughout the third quarter of 2023.

Binance Chain Separation And Challenges

The Messari report emphasizes that BNB Chain has distinguished itself as an independent entity separate from Binance despite its origins as a product of the largest centralized cryptocurrency exchange. However, the market has not fully recognized this separation, leading to a lack of distinction between BNB Chain and Binance.

During the third quarter, Binance encountered numerous challenges, including losing partnerships, shutting down lines of business, conducting layoffs, and facing accusations of violating sanctions. 

These events coincided with a downward pressure on the value of BNB, which experienced a 25% decline compared to the previous quarter. In contrast, the cryptocurrency market dropped by 9% during the same period.

The Messari report mentions that Binance, including its subsidiary Binance.US, was accused by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of engaging in unregistered offers and sales of “crypto securities”, including BNB. 

These allegations further added to the challenges faced by Binance and its associated entities during the third quarter.

BNB Chain Performance And On-chain Activity

Despite the challenges, BNB maintained its position as the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, with a market cap of $35.3 billion. The circulating supply of BNB decreased by 1.3% in the third quarter due to the token-burning mechanism employed by BNB Chain.

The report also highlights the impact of adverse events on BNB Chain’s on-chain activity. BNB Smart Chain’s revenue, measured in BNB, fell in line with the decline in BNB’s market cap, indicating a decrease in activity on the Binance Smart Chain (BSC). Daily transactions (-14%) and average fees (-12) in BNB also experienced declines during this period.

BNB Chain offers staking opportunities for cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum (ETH), BNB, Cardano (ADA), and others. The report notes that the total stake and eligible supply declined by 3% and 2%, respectively, while the average annualized staking yield decreased from 2.6% to 2.1% during the third quarter.

The DeFi sector on the BNB Chain demonstrated strength compared to other sectors. The NFT space experienced increased secondary sales volume, unique buyers, and sellers. 

However, stablecoin transfers and GameFi experienced declines in volume. The report suggests that newer applications on BSC may have influenced the growth of unique buyers and sellers in the NFT sector.

Ultimately, the Messari report provides insights into the separation of BNB Chain from Binance and the challenges faced by Binance and its associated entities during the third quarter of 2023. 

Despite these challenges, BNB Chain maintained its market capitalization and continued to launch new products and implement technical upgrades. The report highlights the need for market recognition of the separation between BNB Chain and Binance and the impact of adverse events on BNB Chain’s on-chain activity.

On the other hand, BNB has experienced a prolonged downtrend since reaching its annual peak of $350 in April. Subsequently, the token plummeted to $202 on October 9. 

However, recent developments have resulted in a positive trend, with BNB recording a profit of 5.2% in the past 14 days and 1.8% in the last 30 days. As a result, the current trading price of BNB stands at $223.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

The crypto market is set to experience significant token unlocks in November, with projects such as Aptos (APT), Avalanche (AVAX), and Hashflow (HFT) leading the way.

These unlocks are anticipated to release more than $320 million worth of tokens, contributing to the overall $450 million set to enter circulating supplies in the crypto market this month.

It is worth noting that such substantial releases could have immediate and long-term effects on both the price and availability of these digital assets.

Aptos And Top Players In November’s Token Release

Token unlocks are events where previously locked tokens become available for trading, often increasing a project’s circulating supply. These events are critical moments for projects, as they can signal maturation and a new phase of market dynamics. 

Aptos, a Layer 1 blockchain created by former Meta executives, is expected to have the most significant token unlock by value, releasing 24.8 million APT tokens, currently representing about $165.6 million at today’s price.

Aptos’s upcoming unlock on November 12 is not just substantial in value but also notable for its distribution, with core contributors, investors, the community, and the Aptos Foundation all set to receive portions of the release.

Meanwhile, Avalanche, another Layer 1 blockchain, is preparing for its considerable token unlock later in the month on November 24, which will see 9.54 million AVAX tokens (valued at approximately $99.3 million at today’s price) released, marking 2.7% of its circulating supply.

Hashflow, a multi-chain decentralized exchange, is slated to have the largest token release by circulating supply percentage. It is poised to unlock 160.38 million HFT tokens, approximately 73.9% of its circulating supply, on November 7, injecting roughly $42 million into the market.

The distribution of these tokens will span early investors, ecosystem development, the core team, and community rewards, adding another layer to the economic activities of the project.

Other Notable November Token Unlocks

Other projects like Optimism (OP), ApeCoin (APE), and Sui (SUI) are also scheduled for significant token unlocks this November. However, they pale in comparison to the top three in terms of value. Optimism is set to unlock 24.16 million OP tokens worth $32.4 million.

Apecoin (APE) is poised for an unlock of 15.60 million APE tokens worth $19.5 million, and SUI is to unlock 34.62 million tokens valued at $14.6 million at today’s market prices.

Each unlock carries potential implications for the broader crypto market, as they may affect liquidity, trading volume, and investor sentiment. Furthermore, out of these six tokens above set to unlock this month, Aptos and Avalanche are the top gainers.

Currently, both assets are up 38% and 22%, respectively, in the past 14 days. APT trades at $6.82, down by 2% over the past 24 hours, while AVAX trades at $11.02, down by 2.7% over the same period, at the time of writing.

Featured image from Unspkash, Chart from TradingView

Solana, the now seventh-ranked cryptocurrency by market cap, thanks to a recent runaway performance, has surpassed the $40 mark. Take a look at a close-up of the price action and see if the stampede by bulls is sustainable.

Say Goodbye To Single-Digit SOL Forever

Less than one year ago, Solana hit a low of under $10. Single-digit SOL proved to be too enticing for investors to pass up and it could potentially serve as a long-term bottom.

The altcoin fended off a fierce selloff in June this year, but held above double digits. The higher low instilled confidence in the market, possibly considering it a valid retest of support.

Price then pushed higher, but failed to breach resistance at $26. That is until about two weeks ago when the Ethereum-competitor took out the resistance level and has been on a tear since. As today, it smashed above $40 and set an intraday high around $46.

The latest over 10% gains today cap off a nearly 100% rally in three weeks, and a full 400% off the lows. Anyone who was bold enough to buy SOL at under $10 has now made more than 4x on their investment.

What’s Next For Solana After Smashing Above $40?

Solana has now erased all bearish price action from the FX collapse and beyond. The latest rally touched price levels not seen since August 2022.

The altcoin broke out from a potential ascending triangle pattern three weeks ago and has climbed over 100% since. Objectives based on the measure rule of this pattern put the next target for SOL at around $90.

Above that level, it is possible that Solana could revisit former all-time highs above $260. This level was last reached in November 2021, a full two years ago.

Comparisons with Ethereum put SOL upwards closer to $1,000 if it follows the same previous bull market pathways. Solana’s stand out crypto market performance could be partially responsible for Ether’s muted rally thus far. But with Solana possibly meeting more resistance at this level, prices could take a pause for the time being, prompting impatient profits to roll back into ETH and other altcoins.

New research from financial analysts at Valhil Capital suggests the XRP price is far undervalued than what it should be. Analysts have developed pricing models that put the value of XRP way higher than its current price of $0.5853, possibly even surpassing Bitcoin. 

According to the research paper from Valhil Capital, which evaluated six distinct pricing models, XRP’s price should not be trading for less than a dollar but somewhere between $9.81 and $513,000.

Research on XRP’s Fair Value

It’s been well established that the XRP price has been held back over the past few years in large part due to the ongoing lawsuit between Ripple Labs, the company behind the cryptocurrency, and the SEC. This legal uncertainty made many crypto exchanges and investors hesitant to buy and trade XRP, leading to the cryptocurrency being left behind during the 2021 crypto market bull run.

Unlike most cryptocurrencies, which aim to replace the traditional method of banking, XRP was designed by Ripple to help banks move money quicker and cheaper than current methods. Using this transaction function of XRP and its use as a store of value, Valhil Capital created six different valuation models to determine XRP’s fair market value.

The first model, called the Pipeline Flow Model, considered XRP’s function as a mode of transaction as well as a store of value, putting its fair value in this case at $3,541. The second model called the Athey and Mitchnick Model, also used the transaction and store of value function to put XRP’s current fair price at $4,813. 

The next two models looked at the transaction function alone. These models, named the 99-Year Golden Eagle Model and the Discounted Cash Flow Model, determined XRP’s fair market price to be $13,368 and $18,036, respectively. 

Using XRP’s function as a store of value, the last two models, called the Collaterization Model and Quantum Liquidity Model, determined XRP’s current fair market price to be far above the price of Bitcoin, putting it at $122,580 and $513,518 respectively. 

Current State Of The XRP Price

XRP trading has since resumed on US-based crypto exchanges, as the cryptocurrency has been deemed not to be a security by a federal judge. Despite its challenges with the SEC since 2020, the cryptocurrency has grown to become the 5th-largest in terms of market cap. 

Some of XRP’s fair market prices determined by Valhil Capital might seem extravagant, but some of them resonate with current predictions and sentiment in the XRP community. On-chain data has shown that whale and shark investors have increased their holdings in the past few days. On the other hand, Ripple’s latest periodic release of 1 billion XRP tokens from escrow could potentially reduce this ongoing buying pressure.

At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at $0.6006, up by 8.94% in a 7-day timeframe. 

The XRP Ledger (XRPL), a decentralized public blockchain developed by David Schwartz, CTO of Ripple Labs, has continued to evolve and show growth in the third quarter (Q3) of 2023, as highlighted in a recent report by Messari.

The XRPL, facilitating cross-currency and cross-border payments for over a decade, has witnessed significant milestones, including a surge in market capitalization and advancements in network features.

XRP Ledger Shows Strong Development In Q3

As of Q3 2023, XRP, the native token of the XRPL, has secured its position as the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization at an impressive $27.8 billion. 

Notably, the token’s market cap experienced remarkable growth, increasing by 59.9% year-to-date (YTD) and recording an 11.9% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) surge. 

According to Messari, one unique aspect of the XRPL is the deflationary pressure applied to its total supply of 100 billion XRP. Transaction fees on the network are burned, reducing the supply over time. 

Since the inception of the XRP Ledger, approximately 10 million XRP have been burned. However, to counterbalance the burn rate, 1 billion XRP vests to Ripple each month. 

Unspent or undistributed XRP returns to escrow. This process will continue until the remaining ~48 billion XRP becomes liquid, making burned fees the sole factor influencing supply.

Unlike many other cryptocurrency networks, the XRPL does not provide rewards or transaction fees to its validators. Instead, validators are incentivized by supporting network decentralization, similar to full nodes on Ethereum (ETH) or Bitcoin (BTC). 

The Proof-Of-Authority (PoA) consensus algorithm relies on trust between nodes, organized through unique node lists (UNLs). This approach contributed to the network’s resilience and security through 2023.

NFTs Thrive On XRPL With Notable Growth In Q3

In Q2 2023, XRPL experienced declining network activity metrics, including average daily transactions and active addresses. However, Q3 witnessed a resurgence, with average daily transactions reaching 1.06 million and active addresses totaling 44,000. 

In particular, NFT transactions showed significant growth, with average daily NFT transactions increasing 7.3% QoQ to 16,700.

NFTs are built into the core protocol and do not require smart contracts for creation or transfers. Standardization of NFTs through XLS-20 2in October 2022 brought benefits such as royalties and anti-spam features. The XRPL ecosystem has grown steadily, with 3 million NFTs minted using the XLS-20 standard.

Overall, the XRP Ledger has demonstrated significant growth and development throughout Q3 2023, driven by market capitalization gains, regulatory victories, and advancements in network features. 

With a strong focus on deflationary dynamics, unique consensus algorithms, and the rise of NFT transactions, the XRPL continues to position itself as a prominent player in the world of cross-currency and cross-border payments, according to Messari. 

Conversely, XRP has demonstrated consistent gains across various time frames. Currently, the token is trading at $0.6073, which has not been reached since August 2023, resulting in a modest 0.4% profit within the 24 hours.

Notably, XRP has maintained an upward trend, delivering substantial returns of 10%, 24%, and 16% in the past seven, fourteen, and thirty-day time frames, respectively. Particularly noteworthy is the exceptional performance within the one-year time frame, where XRP has surged by 32%.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

The XRP price rallied as recent reports from leading on-chain crypto tracker Whale Alert have revealed that Ripple Labs, the blockchain-based payment firm, has unlocked another 1 billion XRP as part of its monthly token unlock program.

Origin Of Ripple Customary 1 Billion XRP Routine

Today, the firm has unlocked yet another 1 billion tokens, performed in three separate transactions. Crypto tracker Whale Alert took to X (formerly Twitter) to share the alert with the crypto community, as each whale transaction was made one after the other.

Related Reading: Ripples Returns 80% Of Unlocked XRP For August Back To Escrow

According to data from Whale Alert, the first transaction performed with the escrow account unlatched a significant 100 million XRP tokens, valued at approximately $59.98 million.

The second transaction made by the escrow account was 400 million XRP, valued at around $239.92 million. Meanwhile, the last transaction saw a total of 500 million XRP valued at approximately $299.9 million, making it a whopping 1 billion XRP valued at around $599.8 million.

The price of XRP temporarily dropped in reaction to this announcement, which saw the token falling by about 3% that same day. But this decline was soon overcome, and as of right now, the digital assets are trading at a slight discount of 0.8% to its closing price from the previous day, according to CoinmarketCap.

However, it is noteworthy that XRP had a strong day before the day before the unlocking, rising as high as 10.5% at one point and finishing the day with a 3.74% price increase. Currently, it is roughly trading at $0.6, presenting its highest price since August.

Related Reading: XRP Whale Transactions Spike To 3-Month High As Smart Money Buys

So far, the company has yet to announce its initial plan for the recently released 1 billion XRP. In light of last’s month 1 billion XRP release, Ripple immediately removed 800 million (80%) of the total XRP tokens unlocked.

Notably, the crypto firm spent approximately 205 million tokens ($112.75 million) from its primary address, “Ripple 1,” in October, even though it reserved about 200 million XRP. Due to this, Ripple used about five million XRP in its balance from earlier this month.

Recent Partnership Set To Boost XRP

The company’s recent partnership with the web3 platform is expected to elevate the XRP holdings on Uphold, thereby boosting the token’s price. This is because Uphold has asserted that it will utilize its expertise to buttress XRP on the market while leaving its current customers’ XRP holdings untouched. 

In addition, the platform will also give Ripple the liquidity it needs to handle cross-border transactions. Ripple’s partnership with Uphold indicates increased interest from the web3 financial platform in the XRPL ecosystem and its utility token XRP, which powers transactions on Ripple Payments. 

Solana has performed exceptionally well in the October crypto market rally. But crypto analyst FieryTrading believes that this might just be the beginning for the SOL price. According to the analyst, once Solana breaks the resistance at $38, then it is headed for another 150% increase.

Pushing Solana To Past Glory

Solana already made its way through to $39 over the last day before losing some of its gains. But this has not eliminated the bullish trajectory of the altcoin. In fact, SOL’s continued uptrend plays into FieryTrading’s prediction for the asset which puts it at $100.

As the crypto analyst points out, there is heavy resistance for Solana just around the $38 level and this has been proven by the coin’s performance so far. Its initial move above this level was met with resistance that pushed it back down toward $37 before resuming its rally once again.

FieryTrading refers to this as an “important area of resistance” at which he expects investors to begin some profit-taking. But a break above this level holds a lot of promise for SOL. The analyst expects an initial bounce above $40, a slight retrace, and then a surge to $100.

Returning to this $100 level would mean a return to the 2021 bull market levels, essentially signaling the start of the bull market for Solana. However, there are still some obstacles to face as the Bitcoin slowdown is having a near market-wide effect.

FTX Stash Threatens SOL Price

By now, it is no longer a secret that the bankrupt FTX exchange is one of the largest holders of SOL. And recently, the estate got the green light from the courts to start selling off some of its crypto holdings and Solana is a prominent asset in its stash.

As NewsBTC reported, the FTX estate recently unseated a soul of 1.6 million SOL tokens worth over $42 million. Now, there hasn’t been any indication of what FTX plans to do with these tokens but the likely outcome is that the estate will start selling the tokens on the open market.

If this happens, then investors should expect significant selling pressure on the SOL price which could send it back down toward $30. This FTX stash remains one of the most bearish indicators for the altcoin that could stop its rally dead in its tracks.

Nevertheless, Solana is still seeing a lot of interest from large institutional investors. CoinShares reported that Solana inflows from last week came out to $23.9 million, bringing the total SOL assets under management (AuM) to $214 million.

Following a futile fight to break the $0.07 resistance, Dogecoin (DOGE) appears poised for a big drop. This was a warning in an October 31 X post by prominent crypto analyst Rekt Capital to his nearly 400,000 followers.

According to the analyst, despite its notable rally last week, DOGE failed to break its diagonal resistance, which resisted its ascent for several months. As a result of this failure, DogeCoin’s price might decline significantly soon.

Rekt Capital Analysis: DogeCoin’s Complex Weekly Close Below Resistance

From Rekt Capital’s analytic chart, Dogecoin (DOGE) has had a tricky week. It recorded notable upswings but closed below a significant resistance level at the price channel top. The analyst marked the meme coin’s closing price with a circle, as seen on the chart below. 

This setup suggests that DOGE’s anticipated big upswing might encounter delays, the analyst said in the Twitter post. He added that, in the past, when this has happened, DogeCoin’s price declined significantly.

This means that the DOGE breakout is postponed. Previous weekly closes like this -> downside, Rekt Capital remarked.

However, despite the high likelihood of a decline, the analyst believes there’s hope for DOGE. Rekt said, “If DOGE can hold the highs and reclaim the channel top as support – there may still be a chance.”

Based on Rekt’s chart, to confirm a bullish trend, the DOGE $0.07 resistance needs to change to a support level on the weekly timeframe.

Ali Martinez’s Bullish Analysis: Dogecoin’s Promising Breakout

Recently, another crypto expert, Ali Martinez, made an optimistic prediction about Dogecoin. The analyst shared a chart on the X platform showing that the meme coin has broken out of a long-term pattern. According to Martinez, this happened when the overall cryptocurrency market trend shifted upwards.

Also, Martinez highlighted that a special TD Sequential indicator gives a BUY signal on DOGE. According to the analyst, this signal strengthens the positive outlook for the cryptocurrency. In context, this indicator helps traders figure out if an asset’s price might change direction.

Meanwhile, Dogecoin has formed two consecutive bullish higher-high candles on the weekly chart. The setup confirms that DOGE indeed broke free from the previous pattern. 

In line with Rekt’s analysis, if the market keeps up this pace, the price could increase significantly. As of the time of writing, DOGE is trading at $0.0665; the coin is down by almost 4% in the past 24 hours. However, over the last seven days, Dogecoin has gained more than 1%, with a 12% 14-day increase.

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin whales have potentially ramped up their selling recently, something that could lead to a drawdown for the asset.

Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio Has Spiked Recently

As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the price of Bitcoin could correct towards the $31,000 to $32,000 range from the current whale selling pressure.

The relevant indicator here is the “exchange whale ratio,” which measures the ratio between the sum of the top 10 transfers to exchanges and the total exchange inflow.

The 10 largest transactions going towards these platforms generally come from the whales, so this ratio can tell us about how the inflow activity of the whales currently compares against the rest of the market.

These humongous investors may transfer their coins to these central entities for a variety of purposes, one of which could be for selling. Thus, whenever the whales occupy a large part of the total exchange inflows, it’s a potential sign that the selling pressure being mounted by this cohort is rising.

Historically, the indicator crossing the 0.90 mark has particularly been bearish for the cryptocurrency. At this level, 90% of the total inflows are coming from the wallets of the whales.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 72-hour moving average (MA) Bitcoin exchange whale ratio over the past few months:

In the above graph, the quant has marked the 0.90 level in red and has highlighted the points in the Bitcoin price corresponding to the instances where the 72-hour MA exchange whale ratio crossed this line.

The analyst notes that in all of these occurrences, the cryptocurrency first registered some volatility and then observed a decline in the short term, leading toward a local bottom formation.

Given the close timings, it would appear possible that the higher inflows from the whales during these instances were at least partially made for selling purposes.

From the chart, it’s visible that the indicator has once again risen above the 0.90 level recently, suggesting that the whales have considerably ramped up their inflows.

Naturally, these high values of the metrics don’t necessarily have to be bearish for the asset, as it’s possible that this cohort is simply opening up positions on the derivatives market this time (and to some extent, it has to be true in either case, as the futures open interest has seen an increase in the last few days).

Given the pattern that has followed in the last few instances, though, the quant says, “I expect increased volatility in Bitcoin and anticipate a new local bottom with a drop to the 31,000 to 32,000 dollar range, which previously acted as resistance.”

BTC Price

Bitcoin hasn’t been able to find any direction in the last few days as the coin has been consolidating above $34,000. If the exchange whale ratio is anything to go by, though, things might change soon for the asset.