Blockchain

Siacoin (SC), the native token of the decentralized cloud storage platform Sia, has been on a tear in recent months, defying expectations and leaving investors wondering if the rocket ride can continue. After reaching a low of $0.0025 in mid-September 2023, the price skyrocketed a staggering 360% to peak at $0.0130 by January 24, 2024. While a 30% correction followed, wiping out those gains, the story didn’t end there. Siacoin defied bearish predictions, embarking on a new upward trajectory culminating in a new high of $0.0175 on February 21st, marking over 100% increase from its January low.

Unpacking The Surge: Technical Advancements, Community Optimism

So, what’s fueling Siacoin’s unexpected rise? Several factors contribute to the narrative. Firstly, the February 2024 update unveiled significant advancements in the Sia network, focusing on stability, performance, and user experience. These include the implementation of RHP4 for the upcoming Utreexo hardfork, aiming to boost efficiency and scalability.

Additionally, new features like metadata addition and improved upload processes enhance data management and user interaction. The Siacoin community, excited about these technical developments, saw them as a sign of progress and fueled further investment.

However, it’s important to acknowledge the broader market context. Siacoin’s price rise coincided with a bullish trend in the cryptocurrency market, with many digital assets experiencing significant gains. This suggests that investor sentiment played a significant role in the token’s upward trajectory.

Meanwhile, there has been a significant rise in short liquidations as a result of the SC token boom. The volume of shorts liquidations increased to above $40k on Wednesday, the highest amount in a month, according to data provided by CoinGlass.

Charting The Course: Bullish Breakout Or Bearish Divergence?

Technical analysis paints a somewhat complex picture. While the price broke out of a long-lasting consolidation zone, potentially signaling the start of a larger bull cycle, a bearish divergence emerges when comparing the current rise with the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI). This discrepancy indicates that the price action might not have enough momentum to sustain itself in the short term.

On the other hand, some analysts see this potential correction as a healthy retracement after the rapid ascent, retesting broken support levels before continuing its upward journey. This perspective aligns with the larger uptrend that began in October 2023, suggesting that a first bull market correction is underway, paving the way for further growth later in 2024.

Beyond The Numbers: Adoption And Future Catalysts

Looking beyond technical analysis, Siacoin’s future hinges on its real-world adoption and development roadmap. The platform boasts a growing user base and partnerships, indicating increased demand for its decentralized storage solutions. Upcoming events like the Utreexo hardfork and potential regulatory developments could also act as significant catalysts, influencing the price in either direction.

Featured image from Tolga Aslantürk/Pexels, chart from TradingView

In a recent development, the Avalanche (AVAX) C-Chain encountered a significant disruption in block production, leading to a halt for over one hour. The interruption, which affected the primary network, was observed through the Avascan browser, with the last transaction recorded at block 42046853 (19:13 UTC+8).

Although other subnets experienced a slight delay, the primary network faced the most substantial impact.

Avalanche C-Chain Block Production Halt

Ava Labs, the team behind the Avalanche protocol, acknowledged the issue and promptly initiated an investigation. According to Kevin Sekniqi, co-founder of Avalanche, the disruption is believed to be related to a new inscription wave that was launched approximately an hour before the block production interruption. 

Sekniqi expressed confidence that the incident was caused by an “esoteric bug” stemming from an untested edge case, emphasizing the need for a swift resolution.

The disruption is presumed to be associated with a mempool handling issue specifically tied to inscriptions, which encountered untested edge cases.

When questioned about the possibility of such untested scenarios arising, Sekniqi acknowledged that while ideally, there should be no untested edge cases, the vastness of the codebase and continuous updates make it challenging to anticipate every possible scenario. 

The Avalanche co-founder further clarified that thorough testing is conducted on testnets, but the intricacies of the mainnet environment can introduce “unforeseen challenges.”

At present, no further official statement has been issued by the Avalanche protocol, awaiting additional reports and updates from the development team to gain further insights into the situation. 

AVAX Price Dips

During the occurrence of the block production halt, the AVAX price, which serves as the native token of the Avalanche protocol, exhibited a negative reaction, further extending the ongoing decline observed since Thursday when the price was at $43.

As of now, the AVAX price has reached $36.13, indicating a decline of over 2% within the past 24 hours, accompanied by a substantial drop of 11.7% over the course of the previous seven days.

The subsequent actions taken by the Avalanche team in response to this situation, as well as the consequential effect on the AVAX price, are yet to be determined.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) seems to be losing momentum after its bullish breakout to the $52,000 price mark, but some patterns indicate further optimistic activity may be ahead.

Bitcoin Price To Reach $61,000

On Thursday, Titan of Crypto, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst shared an interesting prediction for Bitcoin in the near future on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) sparking hope within the community.

Titan of Crypto pointed out in the post that Bitcoin is about to form a trend that he called a “Bull Flag formation.” As a result of this latest action, he has placed a near-term price target for BTC at the $61,000 threshold.

However, the expert noted that the crypto asset is presently experiencing a retest of the Tenkan indicator. According to Titan of Crypto, the price of Bitcoin encounters a pullback every time it reaches the $50,700 level.

Furthermore, the analyst asserted that there is a good chance that bull flag formation will materialize as long as the Tenkan retest remains steady. However, he anticipates a potential drop to $47,300 at the Kijun level, if a breakout toward the downside occurs.

The post read:

Bitcoin Bull flag formation: target at $61,000. BTC is retesting Tenkan at the moment. Each time it hits the $50,700 level it’s bought back. Look at the candle wicks. As long as Tenkan holds the potential bull flag formation is likely to play out. If it were to break to the downside, next support would be Kijun at currently approximately $47,300.

Titan of Crypto has identified another exciting piece of information regarding Bitcoin’s current stance in the market. In another X post, he claims that BTC has entered the “second phase of the bull run.”

The crypto expert stated that BTC’s “Monthly Williams %R” is approaching the “top dotted line.” He mentioned that when the development took place in the last cycle, Bitcoin was about to enter its second bull market phase.

Bitcoin, as of the time of writing, was trading at $50,986, indicating a 1.55% decline in the past 24 hours. Data from CoinMarketCap shows its market cap and trading volume are both down by 1.56% and 20.48%, respectively.

BTC Network Sees Significant Investment Inflow From Investors

With the recent rally, BTC appears to have garnered investors’ interest as the asset has experienced a rise in investment inflow. Willy Woo, a crypto analyst, reported that every day, the network receives around an average of $607 million in new investor demand.

Meanwhile, the overall number of new Bitcoins created daily by mining is just approximately $46 million. In the post, Woo also highlights the importance of the upcoming BTC supply halving, which is just 60 days away.

As it is widely known, Bitcoin halving is when the introduction of new BTCs into circulation is cut by half, which happens every four years after miners solve 210,000 blocks.

Arbitrum (ARB), the Ethereum Layer 2 scaling solution, has experienced a recent price drop, falling below the $2 mark after a brief attempt to establish a new price floor. This decline, attributed to several factors including increased selling pressure and bearish technical indicators, raises questions about the token’s short-term trajectory while highlighting long-term potential.

Selling Spree Triggers Downward Spiral

The price decline began with a surge in selling pressure, most notably from Convex Finance. Over the past 24 hours, the DeFi giant offloaded 901,392 ARB tokens, valued at $1.63 million, at an average price of $1.8 per token.

This move, representing a profit of over $400,000 since acquiring the tokens in an airdrop last year, triggered a domino effect, with other investors following suit.

$ARB price dropped ~9% in the past 24 hours!@ConvexFinance further deteriorates the price by selling 901,392 $ARB ($1.63M) for 559.4 $ETH at ~$1.812 in the past 45 minutes.

They received those $ARB from the DAO airdrop in Apr 2023, which was then worth only $1.2M.

Token flow:… pic.twitter.com/09al0a71Oj

— Spot On Chain (@spotonchain) February 22, 2024

Bearish Indicators Reinforce Downtrend

Technical indicators on the daily timeframe chart further paint a bearish picture. The short-term moving average (SMA), previously acting as support around the $2 mark, has flipped to resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipped below the neutral line, suggesting a dominant downward trend, albeit a weak one.

Despite the decline, signs of resilience emerge. The token experienced a slight recovery of 0.2%, currently trading around $1.88. Additionally, the Funding Rate on derivatives platforms like Coinglass remains positive at 0.014%, indicating that buyers still hold some control, albeit with less aggressiveness compared to before.

Low Derivative Interest: A Point Of Caution

However, the derivative market paints a less optimistic picture. Open Interest, a metric reflecting the total amount of capital locked in futures contracts, stands at around $254 million, indicating relatively low interest in ARB compared to other tokens. This lack of engagement could potentially limit upward momentum and price stability.

Long-Term Prospects Remain Promising

Despite the recent price dip, Arbitrum boasts strong fundamentals and long-term potential. Its fast and affordable transactions, coupled with growing developer adoption and ecosystem development, continue to attract interest. Recent partnerships like ApeCoin’s ApeChain launch on Arbitrum further solidify its position as a leading Layer 2 solution.

While the current price movement suggests a period of consolidation, Arbitrum’s long-term prospects remain promising. Investors should carefully consider market trends, technical analysis, and fundamental factors before making any investment decisions.

Featured image from Kamil Pietrzak/Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Despite the landmark launch of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) spearheaded by industry behemoths BlackRock and Fidelity—ranking among the top five ETF launches in their initial month of all time—BTC’s price response has been notably subdued. Prior to the launch of these EFTs, BTC soared to a peak of $49,040 on January 11.

Fast forward to today and BTC is currently settling at $51,000, marking a modest appreciation of 4.3%. This tepid performance has puzzled market observers, particularly in light of massive net inflows of $5.278 billion into all Bitcoin ETFs within a mere six-week span. These could have been even significantly higher if there would have been $7.398 billion in outflows from Grayscale’s GBTC.

The Bombshell Discovery

Yet, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju may now have found the “real” reason that has had an even bigger impact on Bitcoin’s price action in recent weeks. Ju’s analysis highlights the transfer of over 700,000 BTC to Over-The-Counter (OTC) desks predominantly utilized by miners in the weeks succeeding the spot Bitcoin ETF approvals—an equivalent of approximately $35.6 billion at current prices.

He shared the below chart and stated: “700K BTC has moved to OTC desks used by miners over the past three weeks following spot Bitcoin ETF approval.” This revelation has sparked a reevaluation of the impact of such substantial transfers on the market dynamics of Bitcoin.

Ju later corrected his statement slightly and explained, “Got some questions about the data accuracy. These OTC addresses are not only used by miners. It could be used by other whales. We’ll let you know what addresses caused this spike,”acknowledging the complexity and multifaceted nature of these transactions.

The Bitcoin OTC Mechanism Explained

OTC desks facilitate direct transactions between two parties, unlike open exchanges where orders are matched among various participants. This method of trading can handle large volumes of Bitcoin without immediately affecting the market price.

When substantial amounts of BTC are bought or sold on public exchanges, the sudden increase in supply or demand can lead to significant price volatility. By opting for OTC transactions, large buyers, such as ETF issuers, can accumulate Bitcoin in vast quantities without triggering a steep price increase that would inevitably follow if these purchases were made on spot markets.

Thus, Ju theorizes that the issuers behind the newly launched Bitcoin ETFs are strategically purchasing Bitcoin via OTC desks. This approach serves a dual purpose: it allows these entities to fulfill the demand from ETF investors by securing enough Bitcoin to back the ETF shares while simultaneously mitigating the immediate price impact that such large-scale purchases would have if conducted on open exchanges.

The essence of Ju’s claim is that if the 700,000 BTC had been bought on the spot market instead of through OTC channels, the influx of demand would have likely propelled Bitcoin’s price significantly higher than the observed 4.3% increase. This subdued price action, therefore, could be attributed to the strategic use of OTC transactions by ETF issuers and other large-scale buyers.

However, there is also a silver lining. What will happen if the miners can only sell half of the current supply following the upcoming BTC halving in April, but the demand remains? Moreover, this constraint isn’t limited to miners alone.

Given that the OTC supply is finite and likely depleting rapidly, it appears inevitable that a supply shock could impact the market once the OTC reserves are fully tapped. When entities like BlackRock and others are compelled to purchase Bitcoin on the open market to back up their ETFs, the BTC price could react swiftly.

At press time, BTC traded at $51,030.

The long-awaited arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs has ignited a gold rush in the crypto world, attracting both newcomers and seasoned investors. While these new investment vehicles offer a convenient and accessible way to gain exposure to Bitcoin, their impact on the cryptocurrency’s core principles and long-term stability remains a complex question.

Bitcoin ETF: Initial Surge, But Ownership Shift A Concern

The data paints a fascinating picture. Following the SEC’s approval of 11 ETFs, the number of non-zero Bitcoin wallets initially soared, reaching a peak of nearly 53 million in January. This surge was likely fueled by the accessibility and security offered by ETFs, attracting individuals previously hesitant to directly engage with the intricacies of crypto wallets and exchanges.

However, according to data provided by Santiment, a concerning trend emerged 30 days later: nearly 730,000 fewer wallets held any Bitcoin, suggesting a potential shift towards holding through ETFs instead of directly owning the tokens. This raises questions about the long-term impact on Bitcoin’s decentralized nature and the potential for decreased on-chain activity.

There are 729.4K less #Bitcoin wallets holding greater than 0 $BTC, compared to one month ago. After the #SEC approved 11 Spot Bitcoin #ETF‘s, this amount of non-0 wallets peaked on January 20th at 52.95M. This is attributed to the increased interest in #hodlers

(Cont) pic.twitter.com/FThtSDOmk0

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) February 21, 2024

ETF Boom, But Supply/Demand Dynamics Unchanged

While the ETF market is thriving, its impact on Bitcoin’s core principles is less clear. The recent record volume and inflows exceeding $7 billion across the top 7 ETFs highlight strong market interest and the potential for mainstream adoption.

However, it’s crucial to remember that these ETFs can hold both actual Bitcoin and futures contracts. This means investors gain exposure without directly impacting the underlying supply or demand of the cryptocurrency itself. This raises questions about whether ETFs are truly driving adoption or simply creating a derivative-based market with its own set of risks and dynamics.

Speculation Surges, Raising Red Flags

Perhaps the most concerning trend is the surge in speculative trading using derivatives. Open interest on centralized exchanges, particularly for Bitcoin, has reached unprecedented levels, exceeding $10 billion for the first time since July 2022.

This indicates investors are taking on more risk by leveraging derivatives, potentially fueled by the “crowd euphoria” surrounding Bitcoin and the allure of potentially quick gains. This echoes the speculative frenzy seen in 2017, raising concerns about potential market volatility and potential crashes. Ethereum, Solana, and Chainlink also exhibit significant open interest, suggesting broader market-wide trends beyond just Bitcoin.

The Verdict: A Double-Edged Sword

The arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs has undoubtedly opened doors for new investors, but it’s important to acknowledge the potential downsides. While accessibility has increased, direct ownership might be decreasing, and the rise of speculative trading using derivatives raises concerns about future market stability.

Moving forward, it will be crucial to monitor how these trends evolve and their long-term impact on the overall health of the crypto ecosystem. Additionally, ongoing regulatory developments surrounding ETFs and derivatives could further shape the landscape.

Featured image from Nicola Barts/Pexels, chart from TradingView

Cardano (ADA) is correcting gains from the $0.642 resistance zone. ADA could start a fresh rally if it stays above the $0.5550 support zone.

ADA price is showing a few bearish signs below the $0.600 level.
The price is trading above $0.5550 and the 100 simple moving average (4 hours).
There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at $0.610 on the 4-hour chart of the ADA/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
The pair could attempt a fresh increase if the bulls remain active above the $0.570 support.

Cardano Price Dips To Support

After forming a base above the $0.520 level, Cardano started a fresh increase. ADA price was able to climb above the $0.555 and $0.565 resistance levels to move into a positive zone, like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The bulls pushed the pair above the $0.600 resistance zone. However, the bears were active near the $0.6420 resistance zone. A high was formed near $0.6419 and the price started a downside correction. There was a move below the $0.600 level.

There was also a break below a key bullish trend line with support at $0.610 on the 4-hour chart of the ADA/USD pair. The price declined below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $0.4718 swing low to the $0.6419 high.

ADA price is now trading below $0.600 and the 100 simple moving average (4 hours). The bulls might remain active near the $0.5700 support or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $0.4718 swing low to the $0.6419 high.

Source: ADAUSD on TradingView.com

On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $0.600 zone. The first resistance is near $0.612. The next key resistance might be $0.620. If there is a close above the $0.620 resistance, the price could start a strong rally. In the stated case, the price could rise toward the $0.642 region. Any more gains might call for a move toward $0.680.

More Losses in ADA?

If Cardano’s price fails to climb above the $0.600 resistance level, it could continue to move down. Immediate support on the downside is near the $0.570 level.

The next major support is near the $0.5550 level. A downside break below the $0.5500 level could open the doors for a test of $0.5120. The next major support is near the $0.500 level.

Technical Indicators

4 hours MACD – The MACD for ADA/USD is losing momentum in the bullish zone.

4 hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for ADA/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $0.570, $0.5550, and $0.5120.

Major Resistance Levels – $0.600, $0.6120, and $0.6420.

Ethereum price is struggling below the $3,030 resistance. ETH is consolidating and might start a downside correction below the $2,930 support.

Ethereum struggled to stay above the $3,000 level and corrected lower.
The price is trading above $2,930 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $2,930 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
The pair could start a fresh increase unless there is a clear move below $2,930.

Ethereum Price Hits Support

Ethereum price made another attempt to gain pace above the $3,000 resistance zone. However, the bears were active above the $3,000 resistance. A new multi-week high is formed near $3,036 and the price started a downside correction, like Bitcoin.

There was a move below the $3,000 and $2,980 levels. The price spiked below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,865 swing low to the $3,036 high. However, the bulls are now active near the $2,940 level.

Ethereum is now trading above $2,930 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at $2,930 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. The trend line is close to the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,865 swing low to the $3,036 high.

Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $2,980 level. The first major resistance is near the $3,000 level. The next major resistance is near $3,035, above which the price might rise and test the $3,080 resistance zone. If there is a move above the $3,080 resistance, Ether could even rally toward the $3,200 resistance. Any more gains might call for a test of $3,250.

More Losses In ETH?

If Ethereum fails to clear the $3,000 resistance, it could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside is near the $2,930 level and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.

The first major support is near the $2,865 level. The next key support could be the $2,820 zone. A clear move below the $2,820 support might send the price toward $2,720. Any more losses might send the price toward the $2,550 level in the coming days.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is losing momentum in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $2,865

Major Resistance Level – $3,000

Bitcoin price is struggling to rise above the $52,000 resistance. BTC is now at risk of a downside break below the $50,500 support zone.

Bitcoin price is struggling to clear the $52,000 resistance zone.
The price is trading below $51,800 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
There is a bearish flag forming with support at $51,120 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
The pair could start a major pullback if there is a move below the $50,500 support.

Bitcoin Price Struggles Below $52K

Bitcoin price remained in a short-term negative zone below the $52,200 resistance zone. BTC settled below $51,800 and slowly moved lower. There was a drop below the $51,200 level before there was a minor recovery.

The price recovered a few points above the $51,500 level. There was a move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the $52,990 swing high to the $50,636 low. However, the bears were active near the $52,000 resistance zone.

Bitcoin is now trading below $51,800 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is also a bearish flag forming with support at $51,120 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Immediate resistance is near the $51,800 level. The next key resistance could be $52,000, above which the price could rise toward the $52,500 resistance zone. It is near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the $52,990 swing high to the $50,636 low.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The main resistance is now near the $53,000 level. A clear move above the $53,000 resistance could send the price toward the $53,500 resistance. The next resistance could be near the $54,200 level.

Downside Break In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $51,800 resistance zone, it could start another decline in the near term. Immediate support on the downside is near the $51,100 level and the channel trend line.

The first major support is $50,550. If there is a close below $50,550, the price could start a decent pullback. In the stated case, the price could decline toward the $49,500 support zone, below which the price might even test $49,200.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $51,100, followed by $50,550.

Major Resistance Levels – $51,800, $52,000, and $52,500.

In a significant development for the Binance Smart Chain (BSC) ecosystem, Aave (AAVE), one of the largest decentralized finance (DeFi) market protocols, has announced its integration with BNB Smart Chain. Aave joins prominent projects such as Uniswap, Ambit Finance, PancakeSwap, and Lista DAO.

BNB Chain Welcomes Aave

According to the announcement, this latest development opens up new opportunities for BNB Chain users, giving them access to what the protocol calls “top-tier lending platforms” and enhanced liquidity.

With the launch of First Digital USD (FDUSD), users can now leverage “robust” liquidity, allowing them to explore different applications and opportunities in the Binance ecosystem.

On the other hand, Aave users can now benefit from BNB Chain’s fees and the ability to integrate with one of the largest DeFi ecosystems, fostering increased collaboration between the two communities. The announcement also noted the following about the Aave integration:

This not only complements but strategically aligns with BNB Chain’s 2024 outlook. Focused on mass adoption, high-frequency DeFi applications, and network efficiency improvements, the ecosystem is set for an exciting evolution.

2024 Goals

Looking ahead, BNB Chain has set numerous goals for 2024. The introduction of opBNB – the Layer 2 (L2) scaling solution for the BNB Smart Chain – aims to achieve a transaction processing capacity of 10,000 transactions per second (TPS) by doubling the gas limit to 200 M/s.

Enhanced security measures accompany this increase in capacity through multi-proof mechanisms. In addition, implementing Ethereum’s EIP4844 and Greenfield’s data availability upgrades will reduce gas fees by 5-10 times, providing users with a more cost-effective experience.

In a move called “BNB Chain Fusion,” the BNB Beacon Chain will be merged with the BSC, further enhancing the efficiency and security of the network. The expansion of the number of validators, which will increase from 40 to 100 by 2024, is also expected to contribute to the stability of the network.

Market Cap And Token Holders On The Rise

According to Token Terminal data, the BNB chain has experienced significant growth, evidenced by several key metrics.

One notable metric is the fully diluted market cap, which stands at $75.71 billion, representing a significant increase of 23.9% over the past 30 days, highlighting the confidence in the protocol. 

The circulating market cap, another crucial indicator, currently sits at $54.73 billion, showing a solid 11.6% growth over the same 30-day period. 

On the other hand, the number of BNB token holders has shown a positive trend, reaching 113.51 million, with a significant increase of 3.5% in the last 30 days, demonstrating interest in the ecosystem.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com