Blockchain

Bitcoin Cash price rallied over 10% and broke the $245 resistance. BCH is now facing strong resistance near the $255 zone.

Bitcoin cash price started a fresh surge above the $232 resistance.
The price is trading above $245 and the 100 simple moving average (4 hours).
There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $225 on the 4-hour chart of the BCH/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
The pair could continue to move up if it clears the $255 resistance zone.

Bitcoin Cash Price Rallies Above $250

After forming a base above the $220 level, Bitcoin Cash price started a steady increase. It broke the $225 resistance to enter a positive zone, like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $225 on the 4-hour chart of the BCH/USD pair. There was a strong increase above the $232 and $245 resistance levels. The price is up over 10% and it is now testing the $255 resistance.

BCH is now showing positive signs above $245 and the 100 simple moving average (4 hours). It is also above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $219 swing low to the $255 high.

Source: BCH/USD on TradingView.com

The price is now struggling to clear the $255 resistance. To continue higher, the price must settle above $255. The next major resistance is near $265, above which the price might accelerate higher toward the $280 level. Any further gains could lead the price toward the $300 resistance zone.

Fresh Drop in BCH?

If Bitcoin Cash price fails to clear the $255 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $245 level.

The next major support is near the $232 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $219 swing low to the $255 high, where the bulls are likely to appear. If the price fails to stay above the $232 support, the price could test the $225 support. Any further losses could lead the price toward the $220 zone in the near term.

Technical indicators

4-hour MACD – The MACD for BCH/USD is gaining pace in the bullish zone.

4-hour RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI is currently in the overbought zone.

Key Support Levels – $245 and $232.

Key Resistance Levels – $255 and $265.

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Bitcoin price is up over 5% and it broke the $40,000 resistance. BTC is rising and might soon climb higher toward the $42,000 resistance.

Bitcoin broke the $38,500 resistance zone and surged above $40,000.
The price is trading above $40,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near $40,100 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
The pair could continue to rise toward the $42,000 resistance.

Bitcoin Price Clears $40K

Bitcoin price remained strong and was able to clear the $38,500 resistance zone. BTC bulls gained strength and they were able to clear the $39,500 resistance zone.

Finally, the price surged above the $40,000 resistance zone. It is up over 5% and a new multi-month high is formed near $40,890. The price is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the $39,360 swing low to the $40,890 high.

Bitcoin is also trading above $40,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Besides, there is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near $40,100 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the $39,360 swing low to the $40,890 high.

On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $40,850 level. The first major resistance is forming near $41,200, above which the price might rise toward the $41,500 level.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

A close above the $41,500 resistance might send the price further higher. The next key resistance could be near $42,000, above which BTC could rise toward the $42,400 level.

Are Dips Supported In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $40,850 resistance zone, it could start a downside correction. Immediate support on the downside is near the $40,500 level.

The next major support is near $40,000 and the trend line. If there is a move below $40,000, there is a risk of more downsides. In the stated case, the price could drop toward the $39,720 support in the near term.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $40,500, followed by $40,000.

Major Resistance Levels – $40,850, $41,200, and $42,000.

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The growth of Dogecoin has lagged this year, but the meme coin recently went on a rally in the last week, hitting four-month highs. The question that still has to be answered is whether or not the cryptocurrency can maintain its momentum and continue to rocket forward. 

DOGE started as a meme token but has grown to become an outlier among cryptocurrencies in the past few years. Despite posting a double-digit percent rise in price, the crypto saw itself lagging behind during the late October and early November gains when the majority of cryptocurrencies recovered from the long bearish market of the first half of the year. 

Dogecoin Price Rallies To 4-Month Highs

After reaching its monthly low of $0.0565 in October, Doge experienced a gain of 21%, and then it experienced a gain of 22% in November, resulting in the formation of two consecutive monthly green candles for the first time since October 2022. The crypto has continued on this trajectory, and its price has increased by 9.1% in the past seven days, one of the best gains among top cryptocurrencies. This recent price gain saw DOGE reach $0.08715, its highest level since April 2023. 

DOGE trading volume on various exchanges is up by 30.7% in the past 24 hours. At the same time, exchange data from IntoTheBlock’s Order Books metrics reveal an interesting current overview of the power struggle between bulls and bears. According to the trading books 14 crypto exchanges tracked by IntoTheBlock, the bulls look to have the upper edge at the moment. 

At the time of writing, buyers have placed buy orders of 901.7 million DOGE at an average price of $0.085112. Meanwhile, sellers have only put up 848.13 million DOGE for sale at an average price of $0.085137. This interesting dynamic indicates that there are considerably more buyers than sellers, which could create scarcity and continue to drive the price up.

 

Can Bulls Take DOGE Above $0.3? 

In light of the price surge and some on-chain metrics, data suggests that the crypto might be on its way to a sustained price increase. DOGE immediately bounced off what seems like a resistance at the $0.08715 level and is currently trading at $0.08515. Although DOGE is up by 21% since the beginning of the year, it is 13% down from December 3, 2022. 

DOGE went on a spectacular 525% run the last time it closed two consecutive monthly green candles. If history repeats itself, the crypto could shoot past $0.55 in the coming months. The first step would be to move back up and maintain a strong break above the resistance at $0.087 on the convergence of the 0.786 Fibonacci level and the 100-week and 200-week Moving Averages. Then, the next resistance to watch would be the yearly high of $0.096 in April. 

Featured image from Shutterstock

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In the annals of crypto’s tumultuous history, few stories have gripped the market as intensely as the FTX crypto scam, orchestrated by Sam Bankman-Fried. This massive ponzi, characterized by deceit, manipulation, and a staggering breach of trust, has sent shockwaves across the globe, profoundly affecting FTX investors and shaking the very foundations of the crypto market.

Understanding The FTX Scam

In a time where crypto was gaining momentum, the FTX scam emerged as a sobering reminder of the volatility and vulnerability inherent in the burgeoning crypto sector.

The Rise Of FTX: A Crypto Empire’s Beginnings

FTX, under the leadership of Sam Bankman-Fried, was not just another player in the crypto space; it was a behemoth that quickly ascended to become the second-largest crypto exchange in the world by trading volume. This meteoric rise was characterized not only by innovative financial products but also by a series of high-profile endorsements and partnerships that catapulted FTX into the public eye.

One of the most sensational partnerships was with NFL superstar Tom Brady, in a deal worth $55 million, which significantly boosted FTX’s visibility and credibility. Similarly, NBA star Stephen Curry signed a $35 million endorsement deal, further cementing FTX’s status as a major player in the crypto exchange market. These endorsements were not mere marketing stunts; they were strategic moves that showcased FTX’s ambition and reach.

In addition to sports stars, FTX made a remarkable entry into the world of sports sponsorships by securing a 19-year, $135 million naming rights deal for the Miami Heat’s arena, a move that underscored its financial muscle and ambition. The partnership with the Mercedes F1 Team further diversified its portfolio, indicating a strategy that transcended traditional crypto exchange boundaries.

These high-profile partnerships and endorsements were pivotal in building FTX’s reputation as a reliable and forward-thinking exchange. They played a crucial role in attracting a vast user base, as FTX’s visibility soared, luring investors and traders who were enamored by the platform’s association with global icons.

Sam Bankman-Fried: The Face Behind The FTX Scam

Sam Bankman-Fried, often abbreviated as SBF, emerged as a central figure in the crypto world, renowned for his unconventional approach and rapid success. A graduate of MIT with a degree in Physics, Bankman-Fried’s entry into the world of finance was marked by a stint at Jane Street Capital, a well-regarded quantitative trading firm.

His foray into cryptocurrency began with the founding of Alameda Research, a quantitative cryptocurrency trading firm, and eventually led to the establishment of FTX in 2019.

Bankman-Fried’s persona was a blend of a tech-savvy entrepreneur and a finance whiz, known for his casual attire and altruistic declarations. He quickly became a poster child for the crypto revolution, advocating for effective altruism and pledging to donate a significant portion of his wealth to charity.

His youth, combined with his commitment to philanthropy and a seemingly deep understanding of both cryptocurrency and traditional finance, made him a unique and respected figure in the financial world.

Good Product, Bad Faith

As the CEO of FTX, Bankman-Fried championed transparency and innovation in the crypto exchange market. Under his guidance, FTX introduced several groundbreaking products, including derivatives, options, and leveraged tokens, which attracted both retail and institutional investors. His approach was seen as a refreshing change in an industry often shrouded in complexity and jargon.

However, behind this facade of innovation and success, there were underlying issues. Questions began to arise about the relationship between FTX and Alameda Research, specifically regarding the use of customer funds and the solidity of FTX’s financial practices. The unraveling of these concerns would later be at the heart of the FTX scandal.

Decoding The FTX Scam: How It Unfolded

The unraveling of the FTX scam began with a seemingly innocuous revelation about the balance sheets of FTX and Alameda Research. In November 2022, a report exposed that a significant amount of Alameda’s balance sheet was underpinned by FTT, the native token of FTX. This discovery set off alarm bells for the solvency and interdependence of both entities.

FTX Balance Sheet Analysis: Red Flag

A critical examination of FTX’s balance sheet, particularly its proprietary trading arm Alameda Research, revealed significant red flags that contributed to its eventual downfall. In financial reports dated June 30, it was noted that Alameda Research had $14.6 billion in assets on its balance sheet, but alarmingly, its single biggest asset was $3.66 billion of “unlocked FTT”, FTX’s native token, and the third-largest “asset” was an additional $2.16 billion more of “FTT collateral”.

This meant that nearly 40% of Alameda’s assets consisted of FTT, a coin that was created by Sam Bankman-Fried himself, rather than an independently traded stablecoin or token with a market price or actual fiat in a reputable bank​​.

The intertwining of FTX and Alameda’s finances was further highlighted by the unusually close ties between the two entities. This interdependency was a critical factor that led to the liquidity crisis and eventual bankruptcy of FTX and its 160-plus business units. The situation reached a tipping point following a report by CoinDesk, which set off a chain of events including a public conflict with Changpeng Zhao, CEO of Binance, and Alameda Research’s Caroline Ellison.

FTX Vs. Binance: The Conflict Escalates

Tensions escalated when Changpeng Zhao (CZ), the CEO of the largest crypto exchange Binance and a former ally of SBF, signaled his intention to liquidate Binance’s position in FTT token. CZ tweeted:

As part of Binance’s exit from FTX equity last year, Binance received roughly $2.1 billion USD equivalent in cash (BUSD and FTT). Due to recent revelations that have came to light, we have decided to liquidate any remaining FTT on our books. […] Regarding any speculation as to whether this is a move against a competitor, it is not.

Caroline Ellison responded: “If you’re looking to minimize the market impact on your FTT sales, Alameda will happily buy it all from you today at $22!” Remarkably, the tweet did not calm the market, but rather further unsettled it. The Twitter dialogue stirred the market, as CZ’s decision to sell off FTT tokens prompted a precipitous drop in the token’s value, signaling a lack of confidence in FTX’s financial stability.

In the midst of this public back-and-forth, details about SBF’s relationship with Caroline Ellison began to surface, suggesting a closer personal and professional connection that further complicated the integrity of their businesses’ operations. This relationship would later come under intense scrutiny as part of the investigation into the mismanagement of funds.

A Liquidity Crisis

As the value of FTT plummeted, a run on FTX ensued, with customers frantically attempting to withdraw their assets. FTX’s liquidity crisis became apparent, revealing that the firm did not have the capital to honor these withdrawals.

Following this, Binance’s CEO, Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, expressed initial interest in acquiring FTX through a nonbinding agreement. However, after evaluating the situation for a day, Binance withdrew, with Zhao indicating that FTX’s financial challenges were too severe for an effective resolution. Concurrently, the SEC and CFTC began probing Alameda Research and FTX US for potential mismanagement of customer funds.

This development made FTX’s financial failure imminent. Sam Bankman-Fried endeavored to secure billions in emergency funding to salvage FTX, but without any willing investors to provide the necessary $9.4 billion, FTX declared bankruptcy on November 11, 2022, leading to Bankman-Fried’s resignation as CEO.

The next day, FTX reported the disappearance of $1 to $2 billion in customer funds, following the detection of substantial unauthorized fund transfers from FTX’s cryptocurrency wallets.

FTX Post Bankruptcy Filing

After filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, FTX witnessed a leadership change, with John Ray III taking over as CEO following Sam Bankman-Fried’s resignation. The transition marked a critical phase for FTX as it aimed to recover from the liquidity crisis and address missing customer funds. Remarkably, John Ray III gained prominence for leading Enron during its bankruptcy and recovering over $828 million for creditors.

Regulatory investigations by the SEC and CFTC remained ongoing, creating uncertainty. Restoring investor confidence and implementing robust financial controls were paramount challenges for the exchange. Additionally, FTX had to navigate the aftermath of its failed acquisition attempt by Binance, which had further complicated its financial situation​.

The Role Of FTX Auditors In The Saga

In the wake of FTX’s collapse, the role of FTX auditors has been scrutinized in depth, with questions raised about their oversight and how they could have allowed the FTX scam to exist. The FTX auditor for the international branch, Prager Metis and the FTX auditor for FTX US, Armanino, are central to this scrutiny.

Prager Metis

Prager Metis is facing legal action from the SEC, accused of hundreds of violations related to its engagement with the now-bankrupt crypto exchange FTX. The SEC’s lawsuit alleges FTX auditor independence violations, specifically regarding a template used for client engagements. The accounting and consulting firm added indemnification provisions to engagement letters for more than 200 audits and other work between December 2017 and October 2020, which the SEC claims compromised the firm’s required independence.

The accounting firm has defended its practices, stating that the allegations are based on historical template language that was never enforced, and that it always acted independently from clients. The SEC’s complaint against the firm seeks an injunction and penalties, and the investigation is ongoing​​.

Armanino

Armanino, FTX’s US auditor, defended its accounting work amidst the fallout. Chris Carlberg, Armanino’s chief operating officer, stated in an interview with the Financial Times that the firm stands by its work for FTX US. Armanino gave FTX’s US branch a clean bill of health after reviewing its finances in 2020 and 2021. Carlberg highlighted that the firm was not engaged to audit internal controls, a process typically reserved for public companies, and not required for private company audits.

Both Armanino and Prager Metis are being sued by FTX customers. In light of the changing market conditions and the FTX scandal, Armanino has ceased its auditing and proof of reserve for crypto related firms.

FTX Scam: The Impact On The Crypto Market

The FTX collapse had a profound impact on both investors and the broader crypto market. Bitcoin’s price plummeted by over 30%, and the crypto market experienced a significant drop in market capitalization, resulting in billions of dollars in losses for investors. This sudden and severe downturn in the crypto market sent shockwaves through the entire industry, leaving investors reeling and questioning the stability of the ecosystem they had come to trust.

FTX Investors: A Trail of Loss And Deception

FTX investors faced a harrowing ordeal, with many reporting substantial financial losses, some exceeding 50% of their invested capital. What made this loss even more painful was the revelation of deception and a lack of transparency within the exchange’s operations. Investors had entrusted their assets to FTX, only to discover that the exchange had concealed critical information and misrepresented its financial health.

The FTX Meltdown: Consequences For The Crypto Market

The FTX meltdown had broader consequences for the entire crypto market. Market sentiment took a severe hit as news of the exchange’s collapse spread. It raised serious concerns about the stability and regulatory oversight of cryptocurrency exchanges, making investors wary of the potential risks associated with their investments.

This temporary loss of confidence had a cascading effect on the broader crypto ecosystem, affecting various tokens and projects, as the FTX contagion effects were not entirely clear for several weeks. Following the FTX meltdown, liquidity on the entire Bitcoin and crypto market eroded, further intensifying the bear market. Notably, the FTX crash marked the Bitcoin bottom at $15,440 for the bear market, which was followed by a long period of sideways movement for the BTC price.

FTX Contagion: Ripples Across US Politics

The FTX contagion extended its reach into US politics, prompting regulatory alarms. US agencies like the SEC and CFTC, due to the FTX scam, intensified their scrutiny of crypto companies, including Binance, Coinbase, DCG, and Gemini. Lawmakers and regulators became increasingly concerned about the potential systemic risks posed by crypto market instability. Calls for stricter regulations and oversight in the cryptocurrency industry gained momentum as policymakers grappled with the fallout from the FTX collapse.

The Sam Bankman-Fried Trial

The trial of Sam Bankman-Fried, a defining event in the crypto and financial fraud landscape, commenced in Manhattan federal court and concluded with a verdict on November 2, 2023. This month-long trial, which followed FTX’s bankruptcy filing almost a year prior, centered around allegations of one of the largest financial frauds in history.

Bankman-Fried faced seven counts, including fraud and conspiracy, resulting from his management of FTX and Alameda Research. The trial’s outcome not only underscored the severe implications of financial mismanagement in the crypto industry but also brought to light the vulnerabilities and regulatory gaps within this rapidly evolving sector.

FTX Ponzi Scheme Allegations: Legal Insights

The trial of Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of the now-defunct cryptocurrency exchange FTX, has been a significant event in the financial world, especially within the cryptocurrency community. Found guilty on all seven counts he faced, including fraud and conspiracy, Bankman-Fried’s trial revealed the intricate details of one of the most extensive financial frauds on record.

The prosecutors in the case painted a picture of Bankman-Fried as someone who looted $8 billion from FTX users out of sheer greed, leading to a swift corporate meltdown and the bankruptcy of FTX. This verdict has not only marked the downfall of a once-celebrated crypto figure but also highlighted the potential vulnerabilities within the crypto industry​​.

During the trial, it was argued that Bankman-Fried diverted funds from FTX to his crypto-focused hedge fund, Alameda Research. This action was in direct contradiction to his public claims of prioritizing customer fund safety. Reportedly, the use of the funds varied, including payments to Alameda’s lenders, loans to executives, speculative venture investments, and significant political donations aimed at influencing cryptocurrency legislation.

Notably, Bankman-Fried took the stand in his own defense, testifying over three days. He maintained that he did not steal customer funds and that he believed the financial arrangements between FTX and Alameda were permissible. He also admitted to mistakes in running FTX, such as not establishing a risk management team​​.

Key Revelations From The Sam Bankman-Fried Trial

The trial of Sam Bankman-Fried, former founder of FTX, brought forth several startling revelations, particularly through the testimonies of Caroline Ellison, ex-CEO of Alameda Research and Bankman-Fried’s former romantic partner. As Bitcoinist reported, key moments revelations include:

“Secret Exemption” From FTX Liquidation: Alameda Research had a “secret exemption” from FTX liquidation protocols, according to FTX’s new CEO John J. Ray III. Alameda’s privileged status extended to a “secret software change” on FTX, exempting it from automatic asset sell-offs. Court documents also revealed that FTX allowed Alameda to borrow $65 billion for trading.
Bitcoin Price Manipulation: Ellison admitted to coordinating with Bankman-Fried to keep Bitcoin’s price below $20,000, a strategy aimed at attracting investors.
Bribery In China: Bankman-Fried allegedly bribed Chinese officials with $100 million to unfreeze $1 billion in Alameda Research funds. This included contentious discussions and the use of unconventional methods to navigate Chinese financial systems.
Targeting Saudi Royalty: Ellison mentioned Bankman-Fried’s plans to solicit funds from the Saudi Crown Prince to repay FTX customers, though details remain unclear.
Strategies Against Binance: Ellison revealed efforts by Bankman-Fried to influence US politicians and agencies with the goal to start regulatory actions against Binance, aiming to boost FTX’s market position.
Substantial Financial Losses Due To Security Lapses: Alameda Research reportedly lost $190 million due to security oversights, including a $100 million loss from a trader activating a malicious link and a $40 million loss from an unverified blockchain platform.

The Future Of FTX Post Sam Bankman-Fried

The future of FTX, following the tumultuous downfall of Sam Bankman-Fried, is taking a new direction with plans to relaunch the platform. The initiatives are being spearheaded by the bankruptcy administrators and the new management under CEO John Ray.

Relaunch Plans And Timeline For FTX International

FTX’s administrators have outlined a plan to potentially restart the FTX.com platform, focusing on non-US customers. Various classes of creditors propose organizing this rebooted exchange, which could enable one class of claimants, specifically offshore customers, to relaunch FTX with the support of third-party investors.

The company is actively assessing the feasibility of this relaunch, aiming to file a restructuring plan by the third quarter of 2023, with the hope of getting judicial confirmation for this plan by the second quarter of 2024. The exact timeline for the relaunch remains uncertain, as FTX must first convince the bankruptcy judge that the relaunch serves the best interest of its creditors​​.

Specific Regional Focus: Japan

FTX Japan anticipates a more immediate restart, where robust consumer protection laws have enabled it to maintain a separate account system for its users.This unique position allows FTX Japan to potentially reopen sooner than other regional entities of FTX. CEO John J. Ray III has been in talks with Japanese officials regarding the reopening, which would mark a significant step forward in the relaunch process​.

US Market Challenges

The relaunch in the US presents unique challenges due to stringent securities regulations. Currently, US customers have access to FTX US, a separate entity from the main FTX exchange. The decision to merge these platforms or maintain them as separate entities will have to consider compliance with US laws, potentially complicating the relaunch process in the US​.

Incentives For Former Customers

To encourage former customers to return to the platform, FTX’s new management is considering offering stakes in the company. This could involve issuing equity in the new company or providing options to purchase shares at a specific price in the future. Such incentives would allow former customers to participate in any future growth or profits of the relaunched exchange​​.

Meanwhile, the future of the FTX token (FTT) in the relaunch remains unclear. While FTX holds a significant amount of FTT tokens, suggesting a vested interest in the token’s recovery, management has not announced concrete plans for FTT’s role in the potential relaunch. Any engagement with FTT will likely attract regulatory scrutiny, especially in the US, where crypto assets are subject to securities laws.

FAQ: The FTX Scam And Sam Bankman-Fried

What Was the FTX Scam?

The FTX scam involved the misappropriation of billions of dollars from FTX users. Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of FTX, and his associates at Alameda Research used customer funds for various purposes, including personal investments and political donations, contrary to their commitments to prioritizing user fund safety.

Who Is Sam Bankman-Fried?

Sam Bankman-Fried, often known as SBF, is the founder of FTX, a cryptocurrency exchange. He rose to prominence in the crypto industry before his fall from grace due to the FTX scandal.

Were FTX Investors Aware Of The Scam?

Most FTX investors were not aware of the fraudulent activities within the company. The operations proceeded with a lack of transparency, resulting in widespread surprise and shock when the company’s financial troubles became public.

What Was the Role Of FTX Auditors In The Scam?

The role of FTX auditors in the scam is unclear. Effective auditing should have identified discrepancies in FTX’s financials, raising concerns about the thoroughness and integrity of the auditing processes involved.

How Was The FTX Balance Sheet Manipulated?

The manipulation of the FTX balance sheet aimed to hide the misuse of customer funds. This included overstating the value of certain assets and failing to disclose the significant financial relationship between FTX and Alameda Research.

Was the FTX Operation A Pre-Planned Ponzi Scheme?

Whether FTX was a pre-planned Ponzi scheme is subject to legal interpretation. However, it exhibited characteristics typical of a Ponzi scheme, using new investors’ funds to pay out others.

What Caused The FTX Meltdown?

A combination of financial mismanagement, misuse of customer funds, and a loss of market trust caused the FTX meltdown, resulting in a liquidity crisis.

How Did The FTX Contagion Affect Crypto Markets?

The FTX contagion deeply affected crypto markets, leading to a loss of investor confidence and market instability. As a key player in the crypto exchange sector, FTX’s meltdown resulted in decreased market liquidity and increased volatility, affecting a wide range of crypto assets and companies connected to FTX.

Are There Legal Proceedings Against FTX And Sam Bankman-Fried?

Yes, there are legal proceedings against FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried. A court found Bankman-Fried guilty of fraud and conspiracy charges related to the FTX scandal.

Will FTX Investors Be Made Whole?

The possibility of making FTX investors whole remains uncertain. The restructuring and potential relaunch of FTX aim to reimburse investors, but it is unclear if and to what extent this will happen.

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The next crypto bull run, a highly anticipated event in the financial world, promises significant gains for investors according to many analysts and experts. This guide explores the dynamics of such crypto bull runs, their historical impact, and the potential triggers that could ignite the next bullrun. With a focus on Bitcoin’s influential role and expert insights into the possibilities for 2023 and 2024, we aim to provide a comprehensive understanding of what the future holds for crypto investors.

Crypto Bullrun Phenomenon Explained

The term ‘crypto bull run’ is more than just a buzzword in the world of digital finance; it’s a phase of significant importance. A crypto bull run occurs when the market experiences a prolonged period of rising cryptocurrency prices, often characterized by high investor confidence and increased buying activity.

This phenomenon is not just about the upward trend in prices; it represents a broader shift in market sentiment, often fueled by various economic, technological, and socio-political factors. Understanding the crypto bull run requires a look at its core elements:

Market Sentiment: The collective optimism of investors plays a pivotal role. Positive news, technological advancements, or favorable regulations can boost confidence, leading to increased investments and higher prices.
Increased Adoption: Wider acceptance and use of cryptocurrencies, both by individuals and institutions, often correlate with bullruns. As more people and businesses embrace crypto, demand rises, pushing prices up.
Technological Innovations: Breakthroughs in blockchain technology or the launch of new and promising projects can trigger a bullrun. Innovations that solve existing problems or offer new possibilities can attract investors.
Global Economic Factors: Economic conditions, such as inflation rates, currency devaluation, and changes in monetary policy, can influence the crypto market. For example, investors might turn to crypto as a hedge against inflation, sparking a bullrun.
Network Effects: The increasing utility and network growth of a particular cryptocurrency can lead to a crypto bull run. As more people use and hold a cryptocurrency, its value often increases, creating a positive feedback loop.

In essence, a crypto bull run is a complex interplay of these factors, leading to a sustained increase in prices. While the exact timing and duration of a crypto bull run are unpredictable, understanding these elements helps investors make informed decisions in the rapidly evolving crypto landscape.

Understanding The Term “Bullrun”

The term “bullrun” in the financial world, particularly in cryptocurrency, refers to a market condition where prices are rising or are expected to rise. The origin of the term ties back to how a bull attacks its opponents, thrusting its horns upward – symbolizing the upward movement of the market.

In contrast, a bear market is characterized by declining prices, reduced investor confidence, and generally negative sentiment. These terms – bullish vs. bearish – reflect the prevailing mood in the market: bullish for upward trends and bearish for downward trends.

Historical Overview Of Crypto Bull Runs

The cryptocurrency market has seen several notable bull runs since its inception, each marked by significant price surges and investor enthusiasm. Here’s a brief overview:

The Early Days (2009-2012): After Bitcoin’s creation in 2009, the first notable bull run occurred in 2011, when Bitcoin’s value reached $1 for the first time and subsequently peaked around $32, showcasing the potential of decentralized digital currencies.
The 2013 Surge: Two major bullruns characterized 2013. Initially, Bitcoin’s price soared to $266 in April, driven by increased media attention and investor interest. Later in the year, it spiked again, reaching over $1,000, fueled by factors like the popularization of Bitcoin in China and improved market infrastructure.
The 2017 Boom: Marked as one of the most dramatic, the 2017 bull run saw Bitcoin’s price reaching nearly $20,000. This period was characterized by the ICO (Initial Coin Offering) craze, mainstream media coverage, and a significant influx of retail investors.
The 2020-2021 Rally: Triggered by a combination of institutional investment, extreme levels of liquidity in the entire financial markets due to central banks printing excessive amounts of money (due to COVID-19), and increased interest in decentralized finance (DeFi), Bitcoin again reached new heights, surpassing $60,000 in 2021.

Significant corrections or bear markets followed each of these bull runs, demonstrating the cryptocurrency market’s cyclical nature. These periods have been crucial in shaping the landscape of the Bitcoin and crypto market.

Bitcoin’s Role In The Crypto Bull Market: The 4-Year Cycle Theory

Bitcoin’s influence on the crypto bull market closely ties to its 4-Year Cycle Theory, driven predominantly by the cryptocurrency’s halving events. Occurring about every four years or every 210,000 blocks, these events cut the Bitcoin mining reward in half, thus reducing the rate of new bitcoin generation.

This halving mechanism is integral to Bitcoin’s design, intended to create scarcity and control inflation, mirroring the extraction of a natural resource becoming more challenging over time. The theory posits that this reduced supply, in the face of steady or increasing demand, drives up the price of Bitcoin, often leading to a Bitcoin and crypto bull market phase.

Historical data supports this theory. For instance, the first halving in 2012 saw Bitcoin’s price increase from about $12 to over $1,100 in the following year. Similarly, the 2016 halving preceded a significant bullrun, culminating in Bitcoin’s late-2017 peak near $20,000. The most recent halving in 2020 also led to substantial price gains, with Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs in November 2021.

This pattern of post-halving bull runs not only boosts Bitcoin’s value but often triggers a market-wide crypto bull run. Bitcoin’s market dominance and its role as a digital gold standard mean that its price movements significantly influence the entire cryptocurrency market.

However, these bullish phases are not permanent. Post-halving surges are often followed by corrections, leading to bear markets. This cyclical nature emphasizes the speculative aspects of Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, underscoring the importance of market timing and risk management for investors.

Key Triggers For The Next Crypto Bull Run

Several concrete events and developments as of November 2023 could potentially trigger the next crypto bull run. These include specific milestones and regulatory shifts that could significantly impact investor sentiment and market dynamics.

Bitcoin Halving In April 2024: The Bitcoin halving, which is expected to occur in April 2024, is a significant event for the Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. If history repeats itself, it could mark the beginning of the next crypto bull market.
Approval Of The First US Spot Bitcoin ETF (Expected January 2024): Currently, the US SEC is actively collaborating with financial heavyweights such as BlackRock, Fidelity, VanEck, Invesco, Galaxy, Ark Invest, and Grayscale, fine-tuning the final details of ETF applications for potential approval. Analysts estimate a 90% chance of at least one spot Bitcoin ETF receiving approval by January 10, 2024.
First US Spot Ethereum ETF (Expected Sometime In 2024): The world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, filed an application for a spot Ether ETF with the SEC. Moreover, Bitwise, Grayscale and Galaxy, among others, have also filed applications. Market analysts believe that spot Ethereum ETFs have good chances, given the fact that there are already Ethereum Futures ETFs in the US.
Ripple vs. SEC Case: The cryptocurrency industry is closely watching the legal dispute between Ripple and the SEC, which is inching closer to a final judgment. This case’s outcome will significantly influence the regulation of altcoins in the United States.
Coinbase vs. SEC Case: The legal showdown between Coinbase and the SEC could have notable implications for crypto regulation and the status of various tokens under SEC purview​​. Thus, a victory by Coinbase could also be a major catalyst for a crypto bull run.

When Is The Next Crypto Bull Run?

The question on every cryptocurrency investor’s mind is: When is the next crypto bull run? Predicting the precise timing of a bull run in the highly volatile and unpredictable crypto market is challenging. However, by analyzing current trends, upcoming events, and market sentiment, we can attempt to estimate when the next surge in cryptocurrency prices might occur.

Bull Run Crypto: Has It Already Started?

Despite the fact that the Bitcoin price is still -45% away from its all-time high, Ethereum even -58%, XRP -82%, Solana -77% and Cardano -87%, there is currently a bullish sentiment across the entire crypto market. There is no definitive definition of when a bull market begins, which is why opinions may differ.

However, the fact is that Bitcoin and crypto have made massive gains year-to-date (as of November 30, 2023): Bitcoin has risen by 127%, Ethereum by 70%, XRP by 75%, Solana by as much as 508%. Thus, one can argue that we are at the beginning of the next crypto bull run.

Furthermore, it can be argued that the Fear & Greed Index can be used as an indication of a Bitcoin and crypto bull run. Typically, the indicator is very high for a very long time (with a few dips) during a bull market. A look at the development over the last year shows that sentiment has clearly turned from fear to greed. In this respect, the indicator can serve as a sign that we are in an earlier phase of the crypto bull run.

Expert Analysis: Crypto Bull Run 2023/2024

In a recent post on X, renowned crypto analyst Miles Deutscher remarked that altcoins could gain strength ahead of the Bitcoin halving in mid-April next year, if history repeats:

Is Bitcoin dominance following the same pattern from last cycle? In 2019, dominance topped out in September – before alts gained steam into the halving. In 2023, dominance looks to be exhibiting a similar pattern – which would indicate a reversal into the halving.

Meanwhile, crypto analyst highlighted a bullish trend for the entire crypto market cap (Bitcoin + altcoins):

The total market capitalization for crypto is still seeking for continuation here. Higher lows, higher highs, which means that dips are there to be bought. Next target remains $1.8 trillion.

Bitcoin Bull: Projecting The BTC Price For 2023/2024

Nevertheless, Bitcoin has always been the leading indicator for the entire crypto market in the past. Thus, it’s interesting to project how the Bitcoin price could evolve in the coming months, pre- and past-halving. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital has provided a detailed analysis of the phases surrounding Bitcoin’s Halving, projecting potential market trends for 2023/2024:

Pre-Halving Period: According to the analyst, we are currently in this phase, with about 5 months left until the Bitcoin Halving in April 2024. Historically, this period offers high return on investment opportunities, especially after any deeper market retraces.
Pre-Halving Rally: Expected to start around 60 days before the Halving. This phase typically sees investors buying in anticipation of the event, aiming to sell at its peak.
Pre-Halving Retrace: Occurring around the Halving event, this phase has historically seen significant retraces (e.g., -38% in 2016 and -20% in 2020). It often leads investors to question the Halving’s bullish impact.
Re-Accumulation: Post-Halving, this stage involves multi-month re-accumulation, where many investors may exit due to impatience or disillusionment with Bitcoin’s performance.
Parabolic Uptrend: Following the breakout from re-accumulation, Bitcoin is expected to enter a phase of accelerated growth, potentially reaching new all-time highs.

Rekt Capital’s analysis offers a roadmap, outlining potential expectations for the coming months by drawing on historical patterns linked to Bitcoin halvings.

Renowned financial expert Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, also has a theory. According to him, Bitcoin is currently in an early bull market phase that began at around $31,000 per BTC and will end at around $60,000. The mid Bitcoin bull phase goes up to $90,000. The late Bitcoin bull phase ends at $180,000, according to him.

Factors Affecting The Crypto Bull Market

Several factors can significantly influence the trajectory of a crypto bull market. These include macroeconomic conditions, regulatory changes, technological advancements, market sentiment, and institutional involvement. Understanding these factors is crucial in assessing the potential and duration of a bull run in the cryptocurrency market:

Bitcoin Halving Cycle: It is important to recognize that each cycle has had its dramatic end. When investors take profit on their (massive gains), the Bitcoin and crypto bull run can suddenly end (while most influencers tout that BTC and crypto will “go to the moon”)
Macroeconomic Conditions: Global economic trends, like inflation rates, monetary policies, and especially market liquidity, play a significant role in shaping investor confidence and behavior in the crypto market. Following the macro environment can be crucial.
Regulatory Landscape: Regulatory decisions and policies regarding cryptocurrencies can dramatically affect market sentiment and investor participation. Positive regulatory like a victory by Coinbase or Ripple Labs against the US SEC can initiate or further bolster a crypto bull run. However, regulatory crackdowns can also bring a bullrun to an abrupt end.
Technological Advancements: Innovations in blockchain technology, scaling solutions, and new applications (such as DeFi and NFTs) can attract new investors and boost market growth.
Market Sentiment: Public perception (Fear & Greed Index), media coverage, and overall investor sentiment can drive market trends. Positive news and investor optimism often fuel bull markets.
Institutional Involvement: The entry of institutional investors into the crypto space can bring significant capital, legitimacy, and stability to the market, potentially driving a bullrun. If more companies like MicroStrategy add Bitcoin (or altcoins) to their balance sheet on a larger scale, or more countries like El Salvador use it as a national reserve, this will strengthen the market and likely drive prices higher.

Next Crypto Bull Run Predictions: Price Targets

As we approach the anticipated Bitcoin halving in April 2024 and with growing excitement around Bitcoin ETFs, various experts and financial institutions have offered their predictions for Bitcoin’s price in 2024:

Pantera Capital predicts a rise to approximately $150,000 post-halving, based on the stock-to-flow model.
Standard Chartered Bank forecasts Bitcoin could soar to $120,000 by the end of 2024.
JPMorgan estimates a more conservative target of $45,000 for Bitcoin.
Matrixport suggests Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by the end of 2024.
Tim Draper maintains a bullish prediction of $250,000, possibly by 2024 or 2025.
Berenberg predicts a value of around $56,630 by the time of the Bitcoin halving in April 2024.
Blockware Solutions presents an ambitious forecast of $400,000 during the next halving epoch.
Cathie Wood’s (ARK Invest) offers an ambitious projection of Bitcoin reaching $1 million
Mike Novogratz (Galaxy Digital) predicts a potential surge to $500,000.
Tom Lee (Fundstrat Global) sees Bitcoin possibly climbing to $180,000.
Robert Kiyosaki (Rich Dad Company) anticipates a rise to $100,000.
Adam Back (BlockStream CEO) also predicts a $100,000 valuation for Bitcoin.

These diverse predictions highlight the varied expectations from different sectors of the finance and crypto industry, reflecting the speculative and dynamic nature of crypto bull market.

FAQ Next Crypto Bull Run

When Is The Next Crypto Bull Run Predicted?

The next crypto bull run is difficult to predict precisely. However, experts point towards late 2023 to 2024, aligning with events like the Bitcoin halving in April 2024 and potential regulatory developments.

When Is The Next Bull Market In Crypto?

Predictions for the next bull market in crypto vary, with many analysts eyeing 2024 post the Bitcoin halving, assuming favorable regulatory and market conditions.

When Is The Next Crypto Bull Run Expected?

Expectations for the next crypto bull run are particularly high around 2024, driven by the Bitcoin halving and potential ETF approvals.

When Will The Next Crypto Bull Run Be?

While exact timing is uncertain, the next crypto bull run could potentially start building up in late 2023 and gain momentum through 2024.

When Is the Next Bull Market?

The next general bull market, including crypto, might coincide with improved macroeconomic conditions and institutional adoption, possibly around 2024.

When Is the Next Bull Run?

Many anticipate the next bull run for cryptocurrencies will begin leading up to the 2024 Bitcoin halving, provided market and regulatory conditions are supportive.

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Few events have garnered as much attention as the ongoing lawsuit between Ripple Labs and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) – often referred to as “XRP lawsuit”. This legal battle, which has significant implications for the broader crypto market, has seen a series of twists and turns that have kept investors and industry observers on their toes. In this article, we delve into the details of the XRP lawsuit, provide the latest updates, and explore what the future might hold for XRP price.

XRP Lawsuit Overview: What Are The SEC’s Claims?

In December 2020, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a lawsuit against Ripple Labs, the company behind the XRP cryptocurrency, and two of its executives, Brad Garlinghouse and Christian Larsen. The SEC alleged that XRP is an unregistered security and that Ripple Labs illegally raised over $1.3 billion through its sale.

The SEC’s position hinges on the application of the Howey Test, a standard derived from a 1946 Supreme Court case, to determine if a transaction qualifies as an “investment contract” and therefore should be considered a security subject to SEC regulation. The SEC argues that investors in XRP expected profits primarily from the efforts of Ripple’s management and its corporate actions, classifying XRP as a security under this framework.

XRP Lawsuit: The Howey Test

The SEC’s case hinges on the Howey Test, a four-pronged test that determines whether an asset is considered a security under US law. The four prongs of the Howey Test are:

An investment of money: The investor must have invested money in a common enterprise.
A reasonable expectation of profits: The investor must have a reasonable expectation of profits to be derived from the investment, solely from the efforts of others.
Participation in a common enterprise: The investor must participate in a common enterprise with the promoter of the investment.
An expectation of profits from the efforts of others: The investor must have an expectation of profits from the efforts of others rather than solely from their own efforts.

The SEC argues that XRP meets all four prongs of the Howey test. Specifically, the SEC alleges that:

Investors purchased XRP with the expectation that its value would appreciate.
Ripple Labs promoted XRP as an investment opportunity.
XRP holders participated in a common enterprise with Ripple Labs.
XRP holders expected to profit from the efforts of Ripple Labs and others in the XRP ecosystem.

Ripple Labs has vehemently denied the SEC’s allegations, arguing that XRP is a utility token used for cross-border payments and not an investment contract. The company has also maintained that its sale of XRP was not an unregistered securities offering.

Ripple XRP Lawsuit: The Full History

The legal saga between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been marked by a series of pivotal events, shaping the discourse around cryptocurrency regulation and the classification of digital assets. Below is a comprehensive timeline of the key milestones in the Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit.

Dec. 21, 2020: SEC Files Lawsuit Against Ripple Labs

The SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple Labs, Brad Garlinghouse, and Christian Larsen was a pivotal moment in the cryptocurrency industry. This was the first time the SEC took action against a major crypto company for allegedly selling unregistered securities. The SEC’s complaint alleged that Ripple Labs had raised over $1.3 billion through the sale of XRP, which it classified as an unregistered security. The SEC also alleged that Ripple Labs had engaged in ongoing sales of XRP to retail investors, further violating securities laws.

Dec. 28, 2020: Coinbase Delists XRP

Following the lawsuit’s initiation, Coinbase, a major cryptocurrency exchange, removed XRP from its trading platform. This move was a significant reaction to the legal uncertainty surrounding XRP’s status and indicated the potential market impact of the SEC’s actions. Almost all crypto exchanges followed, delisting XRP for American clients.

Ripple XRP Lawsuit: The Year 2021

March 3, 2021: Larsen and Garlinghouse Challenge SEC’s Fair Notice

Ripple’s executives contended that the SEC did not provide adequate notice that XRP would be considered a security. This defense focused on the lack of regulatory clarity and guidance for market participants regarding the status of digital assets like XRP.

March 8, 2021: SEC Requests Immediate Hearing

In a response to Ripple’s fair notice defense, the SEC sought a quick hearing, indicating the agency’s urgency in addressing and refuting Ripple’s claims and moving forward with the legal proceedings.

March 22, 2021: XRP Recognized For Currency Value And Utility

Judge Sarah Netburn’s recognition of XRP’s utility and currency value was a notable moment in the lawsuit. This ruling differentiated XRP from typical securities, suggesting a possible unique legal standing for XRP compared to other digital assets.

June 14, 2021: SEC’s Internal Crypto Trading Policies Deadline Extended

The court’s decision to extend the deadline for the SEC to disclose its internal cryptocurrency trading policies indicated the complexity and sensitivity of the information expected, which could potentially impact the case’s direction.

Aug. 31, 2021: Deadline for SEC’s Internal Crypto Trading Policies Disclosure

The disclosure of these policies was anticipated to provide transparency into the SEC’s internal stance on cryptocurrencies and potential conflicts of interest, which could have implications for the lawsuit.

Oct. 15, 2021: Expert Discovery Deadline

The inclusion of expert opinions from the fields of cryptography and securities law aimed to bring technical and legal clarity to the case, potentially influencing the court’s understanding of XRP’s nature.

XRP Ripple Lawsuit: The Year 2022

Jan. 24, 2022: Extension for Sensitive Document Disclosure

The extension allowed the SEC more time to contest the decision requiring the disclosure of sensitive documents, highlighting the critical nature of these documents in the legal battle.

Sept. 17, 2022: Motions for Summary Judgment Filed

The filing of summary judgment motions by both parties was a crucial step in the legal process, summarizing their arguments and legal positions, and moving the case closer to a resolution.

Sept. 21, 2022: Chamber of Digital Commerce Granted Amicus Curiae Brief Filing

The court’s permission for the Chamber of Digital Commerce to file an amicus curiae brief brought an additional perspective from a key blockchain advocacy group, potentially influencing the court’s understanding of the broader industry context.

Dec. 2, 2022: Replies to Summary Judgment Motions Made Public

The public release of these replies provided deeper insights into the legal strategies and arguments of both the SEC and Ripple, clarifying the stakes and positions in the lawsuit.

Dec. 22, 2022: SEC’s Attempt to Prevent Public Release of Hinman Documents

The SEC’s efforts to block the release of the Hinman documents underscored their potential significance in clarifying the SEC’s internal views and policies regarding digital assets like XRP.

Ripple Clinches Four Victories: The Year 2023

#1: June 12, 2023: Hinman Documents Unsealed And Made Public

The Hinman emails were released in the SEC Ripple case on June 13, 2023. These emails, related to former SEC director William Hinman, were part of the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple Labs, and their release had been highly anticipated for months.

The documents included exchanges between Hinman and Ethereum founders Vitalik Buterin and Joe Lubin. They revealed that Hinman ignored instructions from high-ranking SEC officials in preparation for his June 14, 2018 speech, where he discussed Ether and its classification as a security.

Ripple’s CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, stated that the Hinman documents were “well worth the wait”. The release of these emails had severe implications for the SEC’s credibility and the ongoing XRP lawsuit, and marked the first victory for Ripple.

#2: July 13, 2023: Ripple Labs Wins The Summary Judgment

Ripple Labs achieved its second, although partial victory in its legal battle with the SEC. The US District Court for the Southern District of New York ruled that the sale of Ripple’s XRP tokens on exchanges and through algorithms did not constitute investment contracts. This was a significant decision because it implied that these sales were not subject to federal securities laws.

However, the court found that Ripple’s direct sales of XRP to institutional buyers, hedge funds, and other parties were in violation of federal securities laws. These institutional sales, amounting to approximately $770 million, were deemed as unregistered offers and sales of investment contracts. The court’s ruling was based on the expectation that investors in these institutional sales would profit from Ripple’s efforts to promote and increase the value of XRP.

This ruling was notable because it provided some clarity on the circumstances under which digital assets like XRP could be considered securities. For the programmatic sales through exchanges and algorithms, the court found no evidence that a reasonable buyer would have the expectation of profits derived from the efforts of Ripple’s management.

This aspect of the ruling was a relief for Ripple, as it suggested that regular sales of XRP to general investors did not violate securities laws. The court’s decision not to grant the SEC’s motion for summary judgment on the “aiding and abetting” claim against Ripple executives Larsen and Garlinghouse further bolstered Ripple’s position​.

#3: October 3, 2023: Judge Torres Denies SEC’s Interlocutory Appeal

The SEC’s interlocutory appeal against Ripple was denied on October 3, 2023. The decision marked the third consecutive loss for the SEC in its legal battle with Ripple, where Judge Torres rejected the SEC’s attempt to appeal its loss against Ripple, setting the stage for further proceedings in the case.

#4: October 19, 2023: SEC Drops Claims Against Ripple Labs Executives

In its fourth loss to Ripple, the SEC dropped charges against Brad Garlinghouse and Christian Larsen. This left Ripple Labs as the sole defendant in the lawsuit. This decision was a surprise to many observers, as it suggested that the SEC may have been losing confidence in its case against the individual executives.

Pending: Ripple XRP Lawsuit – The Trial

A trial date has yet to commence. The trial will be a high-stakes event for Ripple Labs, as the company could face significant penalties for its institutional sales worth $770 million which were considered unregistered securities sales. The trial is scheduled to take place between April and June 2024.

The remedies phase will determine the appropriate fine for Ripple’s past institutional sales of XRP, valued at $770 million. The SEC will seek the entire amount as penalties. Ripple might attempt to reduce this figure by arguing for the exclusion of legitimate business expenses and XRP sales outside the United States​​.

XRP Wins Lawsuit: But What About Remedies?

John E. Deaton’s Analysis

John E. Deaton, who acted as amicus curiae in the XRP lawsuit, expressed strong confidence in Ripple’s success in the ongoing lawsuit with the SEC. He predicted that Ripple has a 99.1% chance of winning, contingent on agreeing to a fine not exceeding $20 million. Deaton argued that the SEC could not demand significant disgorgement without proving harm to investors.

In his analysis he also emphasized that the people who viewed the SEC’s victory as 50-50 were mistaken. He suggested that it was more like a 90-10 win in Ripple’s favor. According to Deaton, if Ripple ends up paying a fine of $20 million or less, it would represent a near-total legal victory​​.

Jeremy Hogan’s Analysis

Jeremy Hogan, another pro-XRP attorney, recently provided insights into the potential arguments Ripple might use during the remedies briefing. Hogan referred to the SEC v. Liu case, which emphasized that disgorgement should be “fair” and based on the violator’s net profits rather than gross. He suggested that Ripple is likely to deduct its legitimate business expenses from any potential penalties.

Hogan also pointed out that sales outside the SEC’s US jurisdiction could be excluded from the total sum. This could seriously affect the penalties’ final amount. Additionally, he mentioned that disgorgement should go to those who experienced financial losses, namely individuals or entities that suffered investment losses.

If an XRP holder acquired the cryptocurrency at a lower price than its current value, they would not qualify as victims, thus challenging the SEC’s case for disgorgement. Hogan concluded, “In conclusion, $770 million is NOT going to be $770 million, but something much less.”​

XRP Lawsuit News

As of November 2023, the ongoing legal battle between Ripple Labs and the US SEC has entered a crucial phase. Both parties have submitted a joint proposal for the next stage of the lawsuit. This proposal focuses on the remedies briefing and discovery process. Important: Stay up to date with the latest news in the XRP lawsuit on NewsBTC.

XRP Lawsuit Next Court Dates: Upcoming Schedule

Pro-XRP lawyer John E. Deaton has provided the final dates for the Ripple vs. SEC case, as per the orders from US District Judge Analisa Torres. According to the schedule based on the remedies and discoveries filing:

February 12, 2024: Deadline for both parties to conclude all remedies-related discovery.
March 13, 2024: The SEC is required to file its brief regarding the remedies.
April 12, 2024: Ripple will file its opposition to the SEC’s brief.
April 29, 2024: The SEC is expected to file its response to Ripple’s opposition.

Deaton predicts that the lawsuit’s conclusion will likely occur in July 2024, during the summer. This schedule sets the stage for the final phases of this landmark case.

XRP Lawsuit End Date Predictions: When Will The XRP Lawsuit Be Over?

The Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit is entering a critical phase, with various experts providing insights on the potential XRP lawsuit end date. John Deaton sees the penalty phase as a complex stage. The SEC could demand $770 million for Ripple’s institutional sales of XRP. Deaton anticipates a time-consuming process to finalize the penalty fee, potentially extending the case into the late summer 2024.

There’s also speculation about the SEC’s intent to appeal. The SEC, led by Gary Gensler, might consider this route after Judge Analisa Torres delivers the final verdict. An appeal could prolong the case by at least another year. The XRP lawsuit end date would be dragged out for years. Earlier in the lawsuit, the SEC’s attempt for an interlocutory appeal was denied, implying they must wait for the final judgment. Given the SEC’s previous decision not to appeal in a similar case with Grayscale, the likelihood of an appeal remains uncertain.

Pro-XRP Attorney Fred Rispoli, closely following the lawsuit, commented on the recent court order that schedules the upcoming remedies phase. The court order requires the completion of remedies-related discovery by February 12, 2024, with the subsequent filing of briefs and responses extending to April 29, 2024. Rispoli speculates that in the event of an appeal, the Second Circuit may not deliver a ruling until at least mid-2026.

XRP Price Prediction After Lawsuit Win

The resolution of the Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit, especially if it results in a favorable outcome for Ripple, is expected to exert a substantial influence on XRP’s price. However, it’s important to note that price predictions are speculative and subject to various market forces.

XRP Price After Lawsuit: How High Will It Go?

The summary judgment on July 13, 2023, which found that XRP is not considered a security, had a notable impact on its market performance. Following the summary judgment on July 13, price surged from $0.475 to $0.95, marking a 100% increase. The trading volume for the token also exploded, spiking by almost 2,000%.

This surge propelled XRP to become the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap. The reinstatement of XRP on major US exchanges like Coinbase, Kraken, and Gemini, which had halted trading after the SEC’s lawsuit, further bolstered this momentum​. A final victory by Ripple in the XRP lawsuit could have similar implications.

Past price moves could be indicative for a XRP price prediction after lawsuit. However, neither the dismissal of the interlocutory appeal nor the dismissal of the claims against the two Ripple executives had such a major impact on the XRP price as the summary judgment.

However, predicting the exact price of XRP post-lawsuit is challenging due to the volatile nature of the crypto market. Factors like overall market trends, investor sentiment, and broader economic conditions will play a significant role. A victory by Ripple is a bullish signal for XRP. This could potentially result in a significant rise in its price.

Short-Term: In the immediate aftermath, XRP price could experience a sharp increase as investors react to the news.
Long-Term: Over time, the price might stabilize as the market absorbs the impact of the lawsuit resolution. Ripple could drive long-term growth by continued development and adoption in the financial industry.

XRP Price After Lawsuit Win: Predictions

Predictions about XRP’s price post-lawsuit victory vary among analysts. Some conservative estimates target a rise to $1 by the end of the year following a Ripple court victory. More bullish analysts suggest that Ripple could retest its all-time high of $3.84 within hours of the court decision. Moreover, many believe that no technical resistance exists to prevent further rises in XRP’s price. Each new banking partnership could potentially serve as a catalyst for the token’s value increase.

FAQ: XRP Lawsuit

How High Will XRP Go After The Lawsuit?

The future price of XRP post-lawsuit is speculative. Factors influencing this include the lawsuit’s outcome, market conditions, and investor confidence. Previous data suggest that the XRP price is highly sensitive to news from the Ripple Labs vs. US SEC lawsuit.

When Will The XRP Lawsuit Be Over?

The timeline for the conclusion of the XRP lawsuit is uncertain. Legal proceedings can be lengthy and unpredictable. However, based on current progress of the case, the lawsuit is likely to conclude in 2024 with the remedies phase. A SEC appeal could further delay the case for years.

Did XRP Win The Lawsuit?

Ripple Labs has achieved significant legal victories. Most importantly, judge Analisa Torres ruled that the XRP token itself is not a security. However, this ruling applies only to specific aspects of the case. Additionally, the SEC achieved a partial victory: the court declared that Ripple’s institutional sales worth $770 million are security sales.

Has the XRP Lawsuit Been Dropped?

The XRP lawsuit is still ongoing. It has progressed through various stages, with recent rulings favoring Ripple. The remedies phase, starting in April 2024 is next.

Will XRP Win The Lawsuit?

Predicting the complete outcome of the XRP lawsuit is difficult. While Ripple Labs has achieved a landmark win, the case involves complex legal arguments. Also, the potential for a SEC appeal exists​. Ultimately, the SEC could take the case before the US Supreme Court.

What Is The XRP Lawsuit All About?

The XRP lawsuit by the SEC concerns allegations that Ripple conducted a $1.3 billion unregistered securities offering by selling XRP. The SEC argues that XRP sales and trading did not meet the principles of the Howey Test.

What Is The Significance Of The XRP Lawsuit For The Cryptocurrency Market?

The lawsuit’s outcome is significant for the entire cryptocurrency industry, potentially influencing US and global regulatory approaches to cryptocurrencies. It may set precedents for how cryptocurrencies are classified and regulated​.

How High Will XRP Go After Lawsuit?

The price prediction for XRP after the lawsuit is largely speculative and hinges on various market factors. Some experts and investors anticipate that XRP could reclaim its all-time high of $3.40.

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BRC-20 tokens, commonly known as Ordinals, are experiencing major upward momentum as Bitcoin breaks past the $39,000 level. ORDI, the biggest of the BRC-20 tokens, is pulled up by BTC’s rally. According to CoinGecko, ORDI is up nearly 36% since yesterday, and currently trading at $32.42, it’s new all-time high. 

This recent price action places ORDI under the limelight, putting enormous pressure on the bears while giving big gains for the bulls. 

$39K Barrier Broken: What’s Next? 

The market is encountering a slight rally with Bitcoin gaining momentum on the legal side of things. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been eyeing the approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), giving traditional investors a safer avenue to invest in crypto. 

Crypto-related stocks also experienced a big jump in price, with names like Clean Spark (CLSK) and Iris Energy (IREN) making headlines. Michael Saylor’s Microstrategy is also up nearly 6% on the daily timeframe. 

Ordinals, on the other hand, are following suit. Coingecko’s BRC-20 index shows a nearly 40% increase in price in the past 24 hours.

Although no major developments have followed Ordinals in the past few months, Bitcoin’s most recent rally gives the bulls a lot of hope for a continuous rally. 

Investors Should Exercise Caution On These Levels…

The current price action suggests that ORDI’s price has no stable support and will eventually revert to more sustainable levels.

However, bulls might be able to use the $25 price level to bounce upward to a favorable position. But if they fail to hold this price point once the hype settles, the $19 price point will be the lowest it can go. 

ORDI Price Boost From ETF Nod

Investors and traders should keep in mind the SEC’s Bitcoin ETF decision. If the agency approves, this will bring more investors to crypto, thus boosting the price upward. But investors and traders shouldn’t bank their money on this single decision alone. 

Economists are still optimistic about a “soft landing” as deflationary winds continue to blow through sectors of the economy. If this continues and the US Federal Reserve does reduce its current 5.5% interest rate, investors and traders will have more confidence in the market.

Paired with a positive approval of the Bitcoin ETF by the SEC, it will push prices upwards more, including the Ordinals. Still, bulls should be able to handle a slight decline in price if they can hold onto the $25 price level. 

(This site’s content should not be construed as investment advice. Investing involves risk. When you invest, your capital is subject to risk).

Featured image from Shutterstock

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The LINK price seems to be intensifying its bullish momentum again after cooling off over the past few weeks. Despite the recent sluggishness in Chainlink’s price action, the cryptocurrency has maintained most of its profit and managed to stay above the $14 level in the past weeks.

Interestingly, the LINK price recently made its way above the $16 mark for the second time in less than a month. But here is the question – what is driving the latest surge?

On-Chain Data Reveals Catalyst For Chainlink’s Jump To $16

The latest on-chain revelation from Santiment has offered insight into the catalyst behind LINK’s price jump to $16. According to data from the crypto analytics firm, Chainlink’s richest wallets have made a substantial amount of token purchases in the past few days.

In a December 2 post on X, Santiment revealed that LINK whales bought about 3.9 million tokens (worth more than $62 million) in the past three days. This data point highlights an increase in the total amount of tokens held by the 200 largest Chainlink addresses.

#Chainlink is moving ahead of the #altcoin field once again, aided by the top whales continuing to accumulate. The 200 largest wallets have added just over $50M $LINK in ~5 weeks. In 5 months, its market cap is +143% overall, and +93% vs. #Bitcoin. https://t.co/HUjTnCY5c9 pic.twitter.com/oAPl9SQaJ5

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) December 2, 2023

This recent market activity underscores the current accumulation trend amongst Chainlink whales. According to data provided by Santiment, the top 200 wallets have loaded up more than $50 million worth of LINK tokens in approximately five weeks.

Furthermore, the on-chain analytics firm also revealed that the 200 largest Chainlink addresses currently hold a combined 746.57 million tokens (equivalent to a massive $11.84 billion). This figure represents nearly 75% of LINK’s total supply.

This accumulation trend is a positive sign for LINK and its price trajectory, as it suggests that large investors are keeping their faith in the asset and banking on the token’s price growth.

Is LINK Outperforming Bitcoin?

As of this writing, the LINK token is valued at $16.11, reflecting a nearly 2% price increase in the last 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the cryptocurrency has jumped by more than 7.5% in the past week.

With its market capitalization rising by more than 143% in the last five months, Chainlink’s performance over the past few months is even more remarkable. Moreover, the altcoin has held its own against the premier cryptocurrency, Bitcoin.

Based on data provided by Santiment, LINK has outperformed the market leader by over 93% – in terms of market cap – in the past five months. This is especially impressive considering that Bitcoin has also been on a positive run, recently breaking above $39,000 for the first time in over a year.

Nevertheless, Bitcoin maintains its position as the top cryptocurrency with a market cap of $772 billion. Comparatively, LINK ranks as the 12th-largest asset with a $9 billion market capitalization.

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The general crypto market has recorded a slight boost in the last week as market leader Bitcoin surged by 4.44% to trade above the $39,000 price mark. As bullish sentiments continue to rise, popular crypto analyst Austin Arnold has now highlighted four tokens that offer investors a high potential for profitability in the coming weeks.

Top Crypto Tokens Set For A Massive Price Rally – Austin Arnold

Speaking in a recently published video on his YouTube channel Altcoin Daily, Arnold stated that certain tokens are “set to rip through the crypto markets.”

The first cryptocurrency he highlights is Injective (INJ), a layer 1 blockchain and decentralized protocol backed by Binance, Pantera, and renowned tech billionaire Mark Cuban. Arnold states that Injective’s potential for a massive price surge is tied to multiple factors, including its impressive tokenomics facilitated by its buyback and burn auction system. 

This is a process in which Injective utilizes 60% of all fees collected across its multiple native dApps to buy back INJ from the market. The bought INJ is then burned, allowing the token to maintain a controlled supply and increase market value. 

Furthermore, Injective currently possesses one of the lowest network fees in the market, which is considered an attractive feature for most users and developers. In addition, the Cosmos-SDK built protocol is also set to undergo its largest mainnet upgrade – Volan Upgrade – in the next few weeks.

Joining Injective on Arnold’s list is Chainlink (LINK), an Ethereum-based decentralized blockchain oracle network. The crypto analyst notes that Chainlink recently celebrated a milestone of 2,000 integrations and projects, which only underlines the network’s appeal to developers and the wider crypto community. 

Furthermore, Arnold lauds Chainlink for its multiple strategic partnerships with major traditional institutions, including the SWIFT banking system and the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC), which could drive institutional adoption of the crypto project. 

In addition, Chainlink recently launched an upgraded staking mechanism, which introduces greater flexibility, better security guarantees for oracle services, and a modular architecture, all of which Arnold believes’ contributes to the cryptocurrency’s potential for massive price gain soon.

Bitcoin And Ethereum Await Spot ETF Boost

The final cryptocurrencies on Austen Arnold’s list are, unsurprisingly, the two biggest assets in the market, namely Bitcoin and Ethereum.

For Bitcoin, The crypto analyst notes that crypto whales have been stocking up their supply of the premier cryptocurrency, citing an example of Michael Saylor’s Microstrategy. In addition, he also references an impending rise in BTC’s institutional demand, which hinges on the approval of a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF).

In addition, Arnold pinpoints there is also a rising interest in Ethereum as more asset managers continue to approach the US Securities and Exchange Commission with applications to launch an Ether Spot ETF.  This development was revealed by American investor Ric Edelman, who personally claims to be more excited about Ethereum than Bitcoin, as it offers more technological capability and commercial applications. 

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Ethereum price action is pushing higher over the weekend, setting a new 2023 high. The move is also a significant sign that an uptrend is forming. Could $3,000 be the next stop for Ether?

Ethereum Sets New 2023 High, Uptrend In Progress

ETHUSD has struggled to catch up to Bitcoin’s unstoppable dominance throughout most of 2023, but that could soon change.

That’s because Ethereum is finally joining in on the bullish price action across crypto, making a new 2023 high.

The move is also a local higher high. A series of higher lows and higher highs is the pure definition of an uptrend. Ether has also satisfied the increasingly higher low market structure.

ETHUSD Ascending Triangle Targets $3,000 To $4,000

Leaving $2,000 behind after weeks of consolidation above it immediately puts $3,000 in play. Ethereum is also breaking upward out of a 18-month-long ascending triangle pattern, with a target of $4,000 per ETH.

If the top altcoin makes it back to such levels, it has a strong chance given the recent momentum in the crypto market, to reach new all-time highs.

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