Data from Glassnode shows Bitcoin hasn\u2019t yet seen a crossover in the current cycle that has historically marked late-bear periods.<\/p>\n
Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Price Is Still Above Long-Term Holder\u2019s<\/p>\n
According to the latest weekly report from Glassnode<\/a>, the STH and LTH realized price crossover hasn\u2019t yet taken place during the current bear market.<\/p>\n The \u201crealized price<\/a>\u201d is a metric that signifies the cost basis of the average holder in the Bitcoin market. Its value is calculated by dividing the realized cap<\/a>\u00a0with the total number of coins in circulation.<\/p>\n Whenever the usual price of BTC moves below the value of this indicator, the average investor goes into a state of loss.<\/p>\n This cost basis can also naturally be calculated specifically for different holder groups. The relevant cohorts here are the \u201clong-term holders\u201d and the \u201cshort-term holders\u201d; here is a chart showing the trend in the realized prices of these two groups over the last several years:<\/p>\n\n The values of the two metrics seem to be approaching each other | Source: Glassnode’s The Week Onchain – Week 37, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n Long-term holders (LTHs) include all those Bitcoin investors who have been holding onto their coins since at least 155 days ago, while short-term holders (STHs) are those who have kept their coins still for less than that.<\/p>\n As you can see in the above graph, the realized prices (RPs) of these two cohorts observed crossovers during the last two bear markets.<\/p>\n In these cycles, the LTH RP crossed above the STH RP as the late-bear began. The implication of such a crossover is that coins recently bought (in the last 155 days) are now more profitable than those bought a long time ago. This shows that the market has gone through a deep capitulation event.<\/p>\n During the current bear market, however, the crypto is yet to see any such crossover, even after already observing 10 months of decline.<\/p>\n The post crossover bear period lasted for 339 days in 2014-15, while it was 145 days for 2018-19. This would suggest that the current bear will still have a while to go before a bull market can start as the crossover hasn\u2019t even happened yet.<\/p>\n The report notes that at the pace the two metrics are approaching each other, this cross will likely take place this month.<\/p>\n BTC Price<\/p>\n At the time of writing, Bitcoin\u2019s price<\/a> floats around $22.5k, up 13% in the last week. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 7% in value.<\/p>\n\n Looks like the value of the crypto has been going up during the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView<\/a> <\/p>\n Data from Glassnode shows Bitcoin hasn\u2019t yet seen a crossover in the current cycle that has historically marked late-bear periods.<\/p>\n Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Price Is Still Above Long-Term Holder\u2019s<\/p>\n According to the latest weekly report from Glassnode<\/a>, the STH and LTH realized price crossover hasn\u2019t yet taken place during the current bear market.<\/p>\n The \u201crealized price<\/a>\u201d is a metric that signifies the cost basis of the average holder in the Bitcoin market. Its value is calculated by dividing the realized cap<\/a>\u00a0with the total number of coins in circulation.<\/p>\n Whenever the usual price of BTC moves below the value of this indicator, the average investor goes into a state of loss.<\/p>\n This cost basis can also naturally be calculated specifically for different holder groups. The relevant cohorts here are the \u201clong-term holders\u201d and the \u201cshort-term holders\u201d; here is a chart showing the trend in the realized prices of these two groups over the last several years:<\/p>\n The values of the two metrics seem to be approaching each other | Source: Glassnode’s The Week Onchain – Week 37, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n Long-term holders (LTHs) include all those Bitcoin investors who have been holding onto their coins since at least 155 days ago, while short-term holders (STHs) are those who have kept their coins still for less than that.<\/p>\n As you can see in the above graph, the realized prices (RPs) of these two cohorts observed crossovers during the last two bear markets.<\/p>\n In these cycles, the LTH RP crossed above the STH RP as the late-bear began. The implication of such a crossover is that coins recently bought (in the last 155 days) are now more profitable than those bought a long time ago. This shows that the market has gone through a deep capitulation event.<\/p>\n During the current bear market, however, the crypto is yet to see any such crossover, even after already observing 10 months of decline.<\/p>\n The post crossover bear period lasted for 339 days in 2014-15, while it was 145 days for 2018-19. This would suggest that the current bear will still have a while to go before a bull market can start as the crossover hasn\u2019t even happened yet.<\/p>\n The report notes that at the pace the two metrics are approaching each other, this cross will likely take place this month.<\/p>\n BTC Price<\/p>\n At the time of writing, Bitcoin\u2019s price<\/a> floats around $22.5k, up 13% in the last week. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 7% in value.<\/p>\n
\nFeatured image from Hans-Jurgen Mager on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"