{"id":32385,"date":"2023-11-13T08:52:36","date_gmt":"2023-11-13T12:52:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/?p=32385"},"modified":"2023-11-13T08:52:36","modified_gmt":"2023-11-13T12:52:36","slug":"arthur-hayes-unveils-his-playbook-for-bitcoin-crypto-and-big-tech","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/2023\/11\/13\/arthur-hayes-unveils-his-playbook-for-bitcoin-crypto-and-big-tech\/","title":{"rendered":"Arthur Hayes Unveils His Playbook For Bitcoin, Crypto And Big Tech"},"content":{"rendered":"

In his latest essay<\/a>, Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, has laid out his investment playbook in the current global economic landscape, focusing on the potential of Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, big tech, and traditional financial markets.<\/p>\n

Dumb Trades<\/h2>\n

Hayes begins with a blunt critique of traditional investment strategies, particularly the purchase of long-term bonds in the current economic climate. He explicitly states, \u201cThe dumbest thing one can do is purchase long-term bonds with a buy-and-hold mentality.\u201d<\/p>\n

Hayes explains this viewpoint by highlighting the risks associated with these bonds, especially when liquidity conditions shift, saying, \u201cYou will experience a market-to-market gain today, but\u2026the market will start to discount the impact of further Reverse Repo [RRP] balance decreases and long-end bond yields will creep higher, which means prices fall.\u201d<\/p>\n

Moving on to smarter investment approaches, Hayes acknowledges leveraging short-term debt, as exemplified by Stan Druckenmiller. Hayes notes that Stan Druckenmiller went mega-long 2-year treasuries. He remarked, \u201cGreat trade, brah! Not everyone has the stomach for the best expressions of this trade (hint: it\u2019s crypto). Therefore, if all you can trade are manipulated TradFi assets like government bonds and stocks, then this isn\u2019t a bad option.\u201d<\/p>\n

Hayes also argues that a trade \u201cthat\u2019s a bit better than the medium-smart trade (but still not the smartest) is to go long on big tech.\u201d\u00a0Hayes focuses on AI-related companies. He identifies AI as a pivotal future technology, arguing, \u201cEveryone knows that everyone knows that AI is the future. This means anything AI-related will pump, because everyone is buying it too. Tech stocks are long-duration assets and will benefit from cash being trash once more.\u201d<\/p>\n

Smart Trades:\u00a0Bitcoin And Crypto<\/h2>\n

However, the smartest trade is to go long crypto, which has significantly outperformed other assets relative to the increase in central bank balance sheets. Hayes presented the chart below, comparing the performance of Bitcoin, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Gold against the Fed\u2019s balance sheet since March 2020, highlighting Bitcoin\u2019s exceptional growth.<\/p>\n

Hayes identifies Bitcoin as the primary investment target, describing it as \u201cmoney and only money.\u201d Following Bitcoin, he points to Ether as the commodity powering the Ethereum network. \u201cEther is the commodity that powers the Ethereum network, which is the best internet computer.\u201d<\/p>\n

He categorizes other cryptocurrencies, stating, \u201cBitcoin and Ether are crypto\u2019s reserve assets. Everything else is a shitcoin.\u201d He further elaborates on alternative layer-one blockchains like Solana, calling them \u201call overhyped, me-too, pieces of shit that won\u2019t overtake Ethereum in terms of active developers, dApp activity, or Total Value Locked.\u201d<\/p>\n

Hayes also discusses decentralized applications (dApps) and their tokens. He finds this sector exciting for its high-return potential, though he acknowledges the risks: \u201cFinally, all manner of dApps and their respective tokens will pump. This is the most fun, because down here is where you get the 10,000x returns. Of course, you\u2019re also more likely to get rugged, but where there is no risk there is no return. I love shitcoins, so don\u2019t ever call me a maxi!\u201d<\/p>\n

Geo-Economic Factors<\/h2>\n

Regarding his investment strategy in the context of current economic fluctuations, Hayes explains his focus on the net of RRP minus Treasury General Account (TGA) to gauge market liquidity, which informs his decisions on T-bill sales and Bitcoin purchases. He emphasizes the importance of adaptability, stating, \u201cI will stay nimble and flexible. The best-laid plans of mice and men have a tendency to falter.\u201d<\/p>\n

Hayes also delves into geopolitical considerations, specifically the potential impact of the Hamas v. Israel conflict on oil prices and monetary policy. He notes Bitcoin\u2019s resilience in such scenarios: \u201cBitcoin has proven to outperform bonds during times of war. [\u2026] The long-term US Treasury bond ETF has fallen 12% vs. Bitcoin pumping 52% since the onset of the Ukraine \/ Russia war.\u201d<\/p>\n

While he concedes that Bitcoin could fall in an initial move when Iran is drawn into the Hamas v. Israel war, it would be a \u201cbuy the dip\u201d situation according to Hayes.<\/p>\n

In a candid conclusion, Hayes comments on the historical context of geopolitical conflicts, expressing skepticism about the prospects for global peace: \u201cOf course, if those in charge of Pax Americana committed themselves to peace and global harmony\u2026 nah, I\u2019m not even going to finish that thought. These mofos have been practicing war since 1776, with no signs of letting up.\u201d<\/p>\n

According to Hayes, however, all roads lead to Bitcoin: \u201c[It] will reassert itself as a real-time scorecard on the health of the war-time fiat financial system.\u201d<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $37,030.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

In his latest essay<\/a>, Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, has laid out his investment playbook in the current global economic landscape, focusing on the potential of Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, big tech, and traditional financial markets.<\/p>\n

Dumb Trades<\/h2>\n

Hayes begins with a blunt critique of traditional investment strategies, particularly the purchase of long-term bonds in the current economic climate. He explicitly states, \u201cThe dumbest thing one can do is purchase long-term bonds with a buy-and-hold mentality.\u201d<\/p>\n

Hayes explains this viewpoint by highlighting the risks associated with these bonds, especially when liquidity conditions shift, saying, \u201cYou will experience a market-to-market gain today, but\u2026the market will start to discount the impact of further Reverse Repo [RRP] balance decreases and long-end bond yields will creep higher, which means prices fall.\u201d<\/p>\n

Moving on to smarter investment approaches, Hayes acknowledges leveraging short-term debt, as exemplified by Stan Druckenmiller. Hayes notes that Stan Druckenmiller went mega-long 2-year treasuries. He remarked, \u201cGreat trade, brah! Not everyone has the stomach for the best expressions of this trade (hint: it\u2019s crypto). Therefore, if all you can trade are manipulated TradFi assets like government bonds and stocks, then this isn\u2019t a bad option.\u201d<\/p>\n

Hayes also argues that a trade \u201cthat\u2019s a bit better than the medium-smart trade (but still not the smartest) is to go long on big tech.\u201d\u00a0Hayes focuses on AI-related companies. He identifies AI as a pivotal future technology, arguing, \u201cEveryone knows that everyone knows that AI is the future. This means anything AI-related will pump, because everyone is buying it too. Tech stocks are long-duration assets and will benefit from cash being trash once more.\u201d<\/p>\n

Smart Trades:\u00a0Bitcoin And Crypto<\/h2>\n

However, the smartest trade is to go long crypto, which has significantly outperformed other assets relative to the increase in central bank balance sheets. Hayes presented the chart below, comparing the performance of Bitcoin, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Gold against the Fed\u2019s balance sheet since March 2020, highlighting Bitcoin\u2019s exceptional growth.<\/p>\n

Hayes identifies Bitcoin as the primary investment target, describing it as \u201cmoney and only money.\u201d Following Bitcoin, he points to Ether as the commodity powering the Ethereum network. \u201cEther is the commodity that powers the Ethereum network, which is the best internet computer.\u201d<\/p>\n

He categorizes other cryptocurrencies, stating, \u201cBitcoin and Ether are crypto\u2019s reserve assets. Everything else is a shitcoin.\u201d He further elaborates on alternative layer-one blockchains like Solana, calling them \u201call overhyped, me-too, pieces of shit that won\u2019t overtake Ethereum in terms of active developers, dApp activity, or Total Value Locked.\u201d<\/p>\n

Hayes also discusses decentralized applications (dApps) and their tokens. He finds this sector exciting for its high-return potential, though he acknowledges the risks: \u201cFinally, all manner of dApps and their respective tokens will pump. This is the most fun, because down here is where you get the 10,000x returns. Of course, you\u2019re also more likely to get rugged, but where there is no risk there is no return. I love shitcoins, so don\u2019t ever call me a maxi!\u201d<\/p>\n

Geo-Economic Factors<\/h2>\n

Regarding his investment strategy in the context of current economic fluctuations, Hayes explains his focus on the net of RRP minus Treasury General Account (TGA) to gauge market liquidity, which informs his decisions on T-bill sales and Bitcoin purchases. He emphasizes the importance of adaptability, stating, \u201cI will stay nimble and flexible. The best-laid plans of mice and men have a tendency to falter.\u201d<\/p>\n

Hayes also delves into geopolitical considerations, specifically the potential impact of the Hamas v. Israel conflict on oil prices and monetary policy. He notes Bitcoin\u2019s resilience in such scenarios: \u201cBitcoin has proven to outperform bonds during times of war. [\u2026] The long-term US Treasury bond ETF has fallen 12% vs. Bitcoin pumping 52% since the onset of the Ukraine \/ Russia war.\u201d<\/p>\n

While he concedes that Bitcoin could fall in an initial move when Iran is drawn into the Hamas v. Israel war, it would be a \u201cbuy the dip\u201d situation according to Hayes.<\/p>\n

In a candid conclusion, Hayes comments on the historical context of geopolitical conflicts, expressing skepticism about the prospects for global peace: \u201cOf course, if those in charge of Pax Americana committed themselves to peace and global harmony\u2026 nah, I\u2019m not even going to finish that thought. These mofos have been practicing war since 1776, with no signs of letting up.\u201d<\/p>\n

According to Hayes, however, all roads lead to Bitcoin: \u201c[It] will reassert itself as a real-time scorecard on the health of the war-time fiat financial system.\u201d<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $37,030.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_layout":"default_layout","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[82],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-32385","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blockchain"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32385","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32385"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32385\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32401,"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32385\/revisions\/32401"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32385"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32385"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32385"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}