An analyst has explained that a pattern in Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) could suggest a potential 50% rise for BTC may be ahead.<\/p>\n
In a new post<\/a> on X, analyst James V. Straten has discussed the correlation between GBTC and BTC that has been present over the years. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust<\/a> is an investment vehicle that holds Bitcoin and allows exposure to these holdings through its shares.<\/p>\n The chart below shows the trend in the percentage performance of Bitcoin and GBTC, as well as the correlation coefficient between them, over the past year.<\/p>\n\n The \u201ccorrelation coefficient<\/a>\u201d here refers to a metric that tells us how tied the prices of any two assets are. When this metric has a positive value, the given commodities show positive correlations as they replicate each other\u2019s moves. The closer the metric is to 1, the stronger this relationship is.<\/p>\n On the other hand, negative values imply the assets are responding to each other\u2019s moves by moving in the opposite direction. The strongest negative correlation occurs at a value of -1.<\/p>\n Naturally, when the correlation coefficient is around zero, there isn\u2019t any correlation between the commodities, as their prices move independently.<\/p>\n From the above graph, it\u2019s apparent that Bitcoin and GBTC have often had a correlation coefficient close to 1, implying that there has been a robust positive correlation between the two.<\/p>\n There have been some temporary periods of deviation, mainly during drawdowns in the cryptocurrency\u2019s price and other significant events like the SVB collapse<\/a>. The correlation reverted to the norm soon after these, however.<\/p>\n Straten says this correlation is especially striking in a 5-year timeframe, where it becomes 100%. The analyst also notes, however, that the two assets have decoupled since June.<\/p>\n As is visible in the chart, GBTC has enjoyed some sharp uptrend recently, while BTC has been mostly flat. GBTC\u2019s performance currently stands at +81% during the past year, while Bitcoin is up about 43%.<\/p>\n \u201cGBTC will be the first to be approved for the spot ETF before Blackrock and others,\u201d says Straten, referring to what British HODL<\/a>, another analyst, said earlier. \u201cPrice action agrees with this. Irrespective of whether it\u2019s late Q3 or early Q4, it\u2019s a six-month window from now.\u201d<\/p>\n Based on this, the analyst believes that either Bitcoin will have to close up the gap created between it and GBTC since June, which would mean a price jump of around 50%, or GBTC would have to come down towards BTC. Straten believes the latter scenario to be unlikely, however.<\/p>\n Bitcoin has declined over the past few days as its price has dropped to just $27,100.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" <\/p>\n An analyst has explained that a pattern in Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) could suggest a potential 50% rise for BTC may be ahead.<\/p>\n In a new post<\/a> on X, analyst James V. Straten has discussed the correlation between GBTC and BTC that has been present over the years. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust<\/a> is an investment vehicle that holds Bitcoin and allows exposure to these holdings through its shares.<\/p>\n The chart below shows the trend in the percentage performance of Bitcoin and GBTC, as well as the correlation coefficient between them, over the past year.<\/p>\n The \u201ccorrelation coefficient<\/a>\u201d here refers to a metric that tells us how tied the prices of any two assets are. When this metric has a positive value, the given commodities show positive correlations as they replicate each other\u2019s moves. The closer the metric is to 1, the stronger this relationship is.<\/p>\n On the other hand, negative values imply the assets are responding to each other\u2019s moves by moving in the opposite direction. The strongest negative correlation occurs at a value of -1.<\/p>\n Naturally, when the correlation coefficient is around zero, there isn\u2019t any correlation between the commodities, as their prices move independently.<\/p>\n From the above graph, it\u2019s apparent that Bitcoin and GBTC have often had a correlation coefficient close to 1, implying that there has been a robust positive correlation between the two.<\/p>\n There have been some temporary periods of deviation, mainly during drawdowns in the cryptocurrency\u2019s price and other significant events like the SVB collapse<\/a>. The correlation reverted to the norm soon after these, however.<\/p>\n Straten says this correlation is especially striking in a 5-year timeframe, where it becomes 100%. The analyst also notes, however, that the two assets have decoupled since June.<\/p>\n As is visible in the chart, GBTC has enjoyed some sharp uptrend recently, while BTC has been mostly flat. GBTC\u2019s performance currently stands at +81% during the past year, while Bitcoin is up about 43%.<\/p>\nBTC Price<\/h2>\n
Bitcoin & GBTC Have Seen A Decoupling In Recent Months<\/h2>\n