{"id":28179,"date":"2023-08-14T16:00:04","date_gmt":"2023-08-14T20:00:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/?p=28179"},"modified":"2023-08-14T16:00:04","modified_gmt":"2023-08-14T20:00:04","slug":"silent-bitcoin-storm-glassnode-uncovers-what-lies-beneath-the-surface","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/2023\/08\/14\/silent-bitcoin-storm-glassnode-uncovers-what-lies-beneath-the-surface\/","title":{"rendered":"Silent Bitcoin Storm: Glassnode Uncovers What Lies Beneath The Surface"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the dynamic realm of Bitcoin, the ability to discern patterns and trends from raw data is invaluable. Glassnode\u2019s latest report<\/a>, \u201cExhaustion and Apathy,\u201d serves as a beacon, illuminating the intricate nuances of the current state of the market. Let\u2019s delve deeper into the numbers and their implications.<\/p>\n

Historic Lows In Bitcoin Volatility<\/h2>\n

The overarching theme of Glassnode\u2019s findings is the unprecedented stagnation in Bitcoin\u2019s volatility. The data reveals that the digital asset has been trading within a remarkably narrow $29,000 to $30,000 range. Historically, Bitcoin has been synonymous with volatility, making this current phase an anomaly.<\/p>\n

The report underscores this by highlighting the Bollinger Bands\u2019 tightness, noting, \u201cThe upper and lower Bollinger Bands are currently separated by just 2.9%.\u201d Such constricted movement has been a rarity in Bitcoin\u2019s tumultuous history.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the dynamics between short-term holders (STH) and long-term holders (LTH) offer a captivating narrative. Glassnode\u2019s data indicates a significant shift in wealth between these two cohorts. The STH\u2019s wealth has burgeoned by +$22B this year, while the LTH has witnessed a near-identical reduction of -$21B. This shift is not merely about numbers but also about market sentiment and strategy.<\/p>\n

The cost basis further elucidates this dynamic. The STH cost basis has surged by +59% YTD, settling at $28.6k. In stark contrast, the LTH cost basis lingers considerably lower, around $20.3k. This divergence suggests that recent market entrants might be paying a premium, potentially due to FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) or speculative behavior.<\/p>\n

Glassnode\u2019s exploration into spending patterns in this low volatility environment is also particularly enlightening. The data suggests that in such periods, the majority of coins moved on-chain have a cost basis that hews closely to the spot rate, resulting in minuscule realized profits or losses.<\/p>\n

The Sell-Side Risk Ratio, a pivotal metric in this context, is languishing at an all-time low. To put it in perspective, fewer than 27 trading days (0.57%) have recorded a value lower than the current one, signaling a market teetering on the edge of a potential volatility resurgence.<\/p>\n

Segmented View Of BTC\u2019s Supply<\/h2>\n

The report\u2019s segmented analysis of Bitcoin\u2019s supply, based on \u2018investor holding time,\u2019 offers a layered understanding of market behavior. The \u2018Hot Supply,\u2019 representing the most active coins, constitutes a mere 2.8% of all invested value in BTC. This suggests a market dominated by holders rather than traders.<\/p>\n

The \u2018Warm Supply,\u2019 spanning from a week to six months, has seen a modest uptick year-to-date, now accounting for around 30% of Bitcoin\u2019s wealth. This segment\u2019s behavior is crucial as it often acts as a bridge between short-term reactions and long-term convictions.<\/p>\n

The \u2018Single-Cycle Long-Term Holders,\u2019 those entrenched in the 2020-23 cycle, are the behemoths, holding a staggering 63% of the invested capital. Their cost basis, as per Glassnode, stands at $33.8k, indicating an average unrealized loss of -13.3%.<\/p>\n

In juxtaposition, the classic LTH cohort, which includes the long-dormant and deep HODLed supply, boasts a cost basis of $20.4k, translating to an unrealized profit of +43.6%. This stark contrast underscores the lingering impact of the 2022 bear market and the cautious optimism of early adopters.<\/p>\n

In conclusion, Glassnode\u2019s data-driven insights paint a nuanced picture of the Bitcoin market. The dominance of long-term holders, the historic lows in volatility, and the evident investor apathy all converge to suggest a market in a state of stasis. The numbers indicate a market that\u2019s waiting, perhaps for a Goldman Foresees Q2 2024 Fed Rate Cut: A Boost For Bitcoin?<\/a> or a significant event, to determine its next direction.<\/p>\n

At press time, Bitcoin was trading just above the 50-day EMA.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

In the dynamic realm of Bitcoin, the ability to discern patterns and trends from raw data is invaluable. Glassnode\u2019s latest report<\/a>, \u201cExhaustion and Apathy,\u201d serves as a beacon, illuminating the intricate nuances of the current state of the market. Let\u2019s delve deeper into the numbers and their implications.<\/p>\n

Historic Lows In Bitcoin Volatility<\/h2>\n

The overarching theme of Glassnode\u2019s findings is the unprecedented stagnation in Bitcoin\u2019s volatility. The data reveals that the digital asset has been trading within a remarkably narrow $29,000 to $30,000 range. Historically, Bitcoin has been synonymous with volatility, making this current phase an anomaly.<\/p>\n

The report underscores this by highlighting the Bollinger Bands\u2019 tightness, noting, \u201cThe upper and lower Bollinger Bands are currently separated by just 2.9%.\u201d Such constricted movement has been a rarity in Bitcoin\u2019s tumultuous history.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the dynamics between short-term holders (STH) and long-term holders (LTH) offer a captivating narrative. Glassnode\u2019s data indicates a significant shift in wealth between these two cohorts. The STH\u2019s wealth has burgeoned by +$22B this year, while the LTH has witnessed a near-identical reduction of -$21B. This shift is not merely about numbers but also about market sentiment and strategy.<\/p>\n

The cost basis further elucidates this dynamic. The STH cost basis has surged by +59% YTD, settling at $28.6k. In stark contrast, the LTH cost basis lingers considerably lower, around $20.3k. This divergence suggests that recent market entrants might be paying a premium, potentially due to FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) or speculative behavior.<\/p>\n

Glassnode\u2019s exploration into spending patterns in this low volatility environment is also particularly enlightening. The data suggests that in such periods, the majority of coins moved on-chain have a cost basis that hews closely to the spot rate, resulting in minuscule realized profits or losses.<\/p>\n

The Sell-Side Risk Ratio, a pivotal metric in this context, is languishing at an all-time low. To put it in perspective, fewer than 27 trading days (0.57%) have recorded a value lower than the current one, signaling a market teetering on the edge of a potential volatility resurgence.<\/p>\n

Segmented View Of BTC\u2019s Supply<\/h2>\n

The report\u2019s segmented analysis of Bitcoin\u2019s supply, based on \u2018investor holding time,\u2019 offers a layered understanding of market behavior. The \u2018Hot Supply,\u2019 representing the most active coins, constitutes a mere 2.8% of all invested value in BTC. This suggests a market dominated by holders rather than traders.<\/p>\n

The \u2018Warm Supply,\u2019 spanning from a week to six months, has seen a modest uptick year-to-date, now accounting for around 30% of Bitcoin\u2019s wealth. This segment\u2019s behavior is crucial as it often acts as a bridge between short-term reactions and long-term convictions.<\/p>\n

The \u2018Single-Cycle Long-Term Holders,\u2019 those entrenched in the 2020-23 cycle, are the behemoths, holding a staggering 63% of the invested capital. Their cost basis, as per Glassnode, stands at $33.8k, indicating an average unrealized loss of -13.3%.<\/p>\n

In juxtaposition, the classic LTH cohort, which includes the long-dormant and deep HODLed supply, boasts a cost basis of $20.4k, translating to an unrealized profit of +43.6%. This stark contrast underscores the lingering impact of the 2022 bear market and the cautious optimism of early adopters.<\/p>\n

In conclusion, Glassnode\u2019s data-driven insights paint a nuanced picture of the Bitcoin market. The dominance of long-term holders, the historic lows in volatility, and the evident investor apathy all converge to suggest a market in a state of stasis. The numbers indicate a market that\u2019s waiting, perhaps for a Goldman Foresees Q2 2024 Fed Rate Cut: A Boost For Bitcoin?<\/a> or a significant event, to determine its next direction.<\/p>\n

At press time, Bitcoin was trading just above the 50-day EMA.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_layout":"default_layout","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[82],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28179","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blockchain"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28179","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28179"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28179\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28179"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28179"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28179"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}