The first of two key events in a historic week for Bitcoin and financial markets worldwide is in the books.<\/p>\n
While the CPI release was today at 8:30 ET, the last FOMC meeting of the year is scheduled to take place tomorrow featuring a new dot plot. CPI and FOMC coincide this week for the first time in a while, making it blockbuster week for Bitcoin.<\/p>\n
And drum roll! The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November figures for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI a few minutes ago.<\/p>\n
The expectation for CPI was 7.3% CPI (0.3% MoM), up from 7.7% (0.4% MoM) in October.\u00a0Core CPI was expected at 6.1% (0.3% MoM), and was 6.3% (0.3% MoM) the previous month.<\/p>\n
The new numbers for November read as follows: CPI fell 0.6% and was 7.1% in November. Thus, the CPI comes in 0.2% better than expected.<\/p>\n
Core CPI was 6.0 % in November, falling by 0.3% from the previous month. Compared to the prediction, Core CPI is 0.1% below expectation.<\/p>\n
Inflation dropping. <\/p>\n
US November CPI +7.1% y\/y vs +7.3% expected.<\/p>\n
Send it all.<\/p>\n
\u2014 The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) December 13, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n\n Already in the run-up to the print, the bulls pushed the Bitcoin price up in anticipation of positive data. The price stood at around $17,550 before the announcement.<\/p>\n After the release, the price reacted extremely bullish to the news along with the S&P 500. The latter is currently breaking out of a year-long downtrend.<\/p>\n S&P breaking out of its year-long downtrend? pic.twitter.com\/tWUKtCQlhg<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Will Clemente (@WClementeIII) December 13, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n\n At press time, BTC was up almost 6% within the last 24 hours and was trading at $17,907.\u00a0With a local high of $18,209, the price was rejected at the 2-month high of November 11 for the moment being.<\/p>\n Prior to the CPI data release, the market was forecasting a rate hike of 50 bps with a 72% probability, according to the CME FedWatch tool. This is compared to a 28% probability of a 75 bps hike.<\/p>\n Within the next few hours, it remains to be seen how this rate will shift due to the CPI print. At press time, the probability of a 50 basis point jumped significantly to 79.4%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n Today\u2019s CPI print has thus further increased the probability for 50 bps.<\/p>\n As NewsBTC reported<\/a>, JP Morgan published an analysis before releasing the CPI data, according to which it gave the highest probability (50%) of a CPI print of 7.2% to 7.4%. As it turns out, JP Morgan was almost spot on with this assessment.<\/p>\n JP Morgan assigned only a 15% chance to the 7.1% outcome and predicted that this could mean increases of 4% to 5% for the S&P 500.<\/p>\n Goldman Sachs forecasts that today\u2019s CPI print could mean a 2% to 3% increase for the S&P 500.<\/p>\n However, ultimately the FED will decide tomorrow what to do with the CPI data. As NewsBTC reported, it will also publish the dot plot<\/a>, which reflects the central bank\u2019s long-term expectations and outlook.<\/p>\n So whether the rally will find a continuation or abruptly stop will depend on whether the FED plays along.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" <\/p>\n The first of two key events in a historic week for Bitcoin and financial markets worldwide is in the books.<\/p>\n While the CPI release was today at 8:30 ET, the last FOMC meeting of the year is scheduled to take place tomorrow featuring a new dot plot. CPI and FOMC coincide this week for the first time in a while, making it blockbuster week for Bitcoin.<\/p>\n And drum roll! The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November figures for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI a few minutes ago.<\/p>\n The expectation for CPI was 7.3% CPI (0.3% MoM), up from 7.7% (0.4% MoM) in October.\u00a0Core CPI was expected at 6.1% (0.3% MoM), and was 6.3% (0.3% MoM) the previous month.<\/p>\n The new numbers for November read as follows: CPI fell 0.6% and was 7.1% in November. Thus, the CPI comes in 0.2% better than expected.<\/p>\n Core CPI was 6.0 % in November, falling by 0.3% from the previous month. Compared to the prediction, Core CPI is 0.1% below expectation.<\/p>\n Inflation dropping. <\/p>\n US November CPI +7.1% y\/y vs +7.3% expected.<\/p>\n Send it all.<\/p>\n \u2014 The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) December 13, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n Already in the run-up to the print, the bulls pushed the Bitcoin price up in anticipation of positive data. The price stood at around $17,550 before the announcement.<\/p>\n After the release, the price reacted extremely bullish to the news along with the S&P 500. The latter is currently breaking out of a year-long downtrend.<\/p>\n S&P breaking out of its year-long downtrend? pic.twitter.com\/tWUKtCQlhg<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Will Clemente (@WClementeIII) December 13, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n At press time, BTC was up almost 6% within the last 24 hours and was trading at $17,907.\u00a0With a local high of $18,209, the price was rejected at the 2-month high of November 11 for the moment being.<\/p>\n Prior to the CPI data release, the market was forecasting a rate hike of 50 bps with a 72% probability, according to the CME FedWatch tool. This is compared to a 28% probability of a 75 bps hike.<\/p>\n Within the next few hours, it remains to be seen how this rate will shift due to the CPI print. At press time, the probability of a 50 basis point jumped significantly to 79.4%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n Today\u2019s CPI print has thus further increased the probability for 50 bps.<\/p>\nWhat Will The Federal Reserve Do With The Data?<\/h2>\n
What Will The Federal Reserve Do With The Data?<\/h2>\n