This counterintuitive thinking by ARK Investment is the reason why we subscribe to their\u00a0 \u201cThe Bitcoin Monthly\u201d report. While everybody complains about bitcoin\u2019s dance in unison with the stock market, they keep it cool and even frame it as an opportunity. Which it is. It\u2019s not ideal that traders treat bitcoin like a risk-on asset, but there\u2019s certainly logic behind it. Short-sighted people see bitcoin as an investment vehicle and little else.<\/p>\n
Excited to introduce the first official issue of \u201cThe Bitcoin Monthly\u201d<\/p>\n
Starting this month, ARK will be publishing an in-depth report covering Bitcoin\u2019s market action and sharing where we think the market’s headed.<\/p>\n
Here are the major highlights from this month\u2019s report:<\/p>\n
\u2014 Yassine Elmandjra (@yassineARK) June 3, 2022<\/p>\n\n
In our first article about \u201cThe Bitcoin Monthly,\u201d we defined it as:<\/p>\n
\u201cOver at Twitter, ARK Analyst Yassine Elmandjra described \u201cThe Bitcoin Monthly\u201d as: \u201cStarting this month, ARK will be publishing an in-depth report covering Bitcoin\u2019s market action and sharing where we think the market\u2019s headed.\u201d On ARK\u2019s website, they describe the new venture as: \u201cConsidering the market\u2019s fast pace of change, ARK publishes The Bitcoin Monthly, an \u201cearnings report\u201d that details relevant on-chain activity and showcases the openness, transparency, and accessibility of blockchain data.\u201d<\/p>\n\n
BTC p- S&P500 Correlation | Source: \u201cThe Bitcoin Monthly\u201d
\nARK On Bitcoin\u2019s Correlation With The S&P 500<\/p>\n
When the Russia\/ Ukraine conflict started, it seemed like bitcoin not in synch with traditional markets anymore. However, the shift quickly turned. By May, \u201cBitcoin\u2019s correlation with the S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 80%.\u201d The previous ATH was way back in October 2020, near that magical time when bitcoin woke up from a hundred years\u2019 nap to pass the $20K line for the first time.\u00a0<\/p>\n
“If your time horizon is one month, Bitcoin looks like a volatile asset. If your time horizon is 10 years, it looks like a risk-off store of value.”<\/p>\n
\u2013 @saylor <\/p>\n
I couldn’t agree more.<\/p>\n
\u2014 Dr. Jeff Ross (Pleb counselor) (@VailshireCap) June 15, 2022<\/p>\n\n
So, what\u2019s ARK \u2018s take on the situation? Well\u2026<\/p>\n
\u201cBased on fundamentals, we believe bitcoin and most equities should not be highly correlated, highlighting a potentially significant market inefficiency.\u201d<\/p>\n
A \u201csignificant market inefficiency\u201d is an investor\u2019s wet dream. It means that you\u2019re seeing something that the market\u2019s not. It means opportunity. If you play your cards right, it could mean money. How to use that \u201csignificant market inefficiency\u201d in your favor, that\u2019s another question altogether. Take into account that \u201cBitcoin still faces an uncertain macro environment, as the global economy shows signs of a recession,\u201d though.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s also take into account these recent words by MicroStrategy\u2019s Michael Saylor, \u201cIf your time horizon is one month, Bitcoin looks like a volatile asset. If your time horizon is 10 years, it looks like a risk-off store of value.\u201d Apparently, bitcoin traders suffer from high time preference. And that probably explains the correlation with the S&P 500.<\/p>\n\n
BTC price chart for 06\/16\/2022 on Binance | Source: BTC\/USD on TradingView.com
\nArcane Research Weights In<\/p>\n
ARK isn\u2019t the only game in town. Our friends at Arcade Research have the most recent information regarding bitcoin\u2019s correlation with the S&P 500, \u201cBTC followed U.S. markets closely on Friday and, in extension, also during this weekend. However, as prices plummeted, new ghosts emerged, and the dangers of impactful insolvencies have contributed to further drag on the crypto market,\u201d they say in \u201cThe Weekly Update\u2019.\u201d<\/p>\n
When Arcane Research says \u201c impactful insolvencies,\u201d they certainly refer to the Celsius case.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhile the crisis in Celsius has contributed to putting a further drag on the market, the initial catalyst was the inflation surprise in the U.S. We note a decline in the 90-day correlation between BTC and S&P 500. However, short-term correlations grew heavily following Friday\u2019s inflation news \u2013 with the market preparing for more hawkish policies enacted by the FED.\u201d<\/p>\n
The fact of the matter is that bitcoin\u2019s price is determined at the edges of the network. And high time preference people are trading there. And if they want to treat bitcoin as a risky asset, there\u2019s nothing anyone can do about it. Except, somehow, taking advantage of the opportunity it brings.<\/p>\n
Featured Image by Sergei Tokmakov Terms.Law from Pixabay | Charts by TradingView and \u201cThe Bitcoin Monthly\u201d<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
<\/p>\n
This counterintuitive thinking by ARK Investment is the reason why we subscribe to their\u00a0 \u201cThe Bitcoin Monthly\u201d report. While everybody complains about bitcoin\u2019s dance in unison with the stock market, they keep it cool and even frame it as an opportunity. Which it is. It\u2019s not ideal that traders treat bitcoin like a risk-on asset, but there\u2019s certainly logic behind it. Short-sighted people see bitcoin as an investment vehicle and little else.<\/p>\n
Excited to introduce the first official issue of \u201cThe Bitcoin Monthly\u201d<\/p>\n
Starting this month, ARK will be publishing an in-depth report covering Bitcoin\u2019s market action and sharing where we think the market’s headed.<\/p>\n
Here are the major highlights from this month\u2019s report:<\/p>\n
\u2014 Yassine Elmandjra (@yassineARK) June 3, 2022<\/p>\n
In our first article about \u201cThe Bitcoin Monthly,\u201d we defined it as:<\/p>\n
\u201cOver at Twitter, ARK Analyst Yassine Elmandjra described \u201cThe Bitcoin Monthly\u201d as: \u201cStarting this month, ARK will be publishing an in-depth report covering Bitcoin\u2019s market action and sharing where we think the market\u2019s headed.\u201d On ARK\u2019s website, they describe the new venture as: \u201cConsidering the market\u2019s fast pace of change, ARK publishes The Bitcoin Monthly, an \u201cearnings report\u201d that details relevant on-chain activity and showcases the openness, transparency, and accessibility of blockchain data.\u201d<\/p>\n
BTC p- S&P500 Correlation | Source: \u201cThe Bitcoin Monthly\u201d
\nARK On Bitcoin\u2019s Correlation With The S&P 500<\/p>\n
When the Russia\/ Ukraine conflict started, it seemed like bitcoin not in synch with traditional markets anymore. However, the shift quickly turned. By May, \u201cBitcoin\u2019s correlation with the S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 80%.\u201d The previous ATH was way back in October 2020, near that magical time when bitcoin woke up from a hundred years\u2019 nap to pass the $20K line for the first time.\u00a0<\/p>\n
“If your time horizon is one month, Bitcoin looks like a volatile asset. If your time horizon is 10 years, it looks like a risk-off store of value.”<\/p>\n
\u2013 @saylor <\/p>\n
I couldn’t agree more.<\/p>\n
\u2014 Dr. Jeff Ross (Pleb counselor) (@VailshireCap) June 15, 2022<\/p>\n
So, what\u2019s ARK \u2018s take on the situation? Well\u2026<\/p>\n
\u201cBased on fundamentals, we believe bitcoin and most equities should not be highly correlated, highlighting a potentially significant market inefficiency.\u201d<\/p>\n
A \u201csignificant market inefficiency\u201d is an investor\u2019s wet dream. It means that you\u2019re seeing something that the market\u2019s not. It means opportunity. If you play your cards right, it could mean money. How to use that \u201csignificant market inefficiency\u201d in your favor, that\u2019s another question altogether. Take into account that \u201cBitcoin still faces an uncertain macro environment, as the global economy shows signs of a recession,\u201d though.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s also take into account these recent words by MicroStrategy\u2019s Michael Saylor, \u201cIf your time horizon is one month, Bitcoin looks like a volatile asset. If your time horizon is 10 years, it looks like a risk-off store of value.\u201d Apparently, bitcoin traders suffer from high time preference. And that probably explains the correlation with the S&P 500.<\/p>\n
BTC price chart for 06\/16\/2022 on Binance | Source: BTC\/USD on TradingView.com
\nArcane Research Weights In<\/p>\n
ARK isn\u2019t the only game in town. Our friends at Arcade Research have the most recent information regarding bitcoin\u2019s correlation with the S&P 500, \u201cBTC followed U.S. markets closely on Friday and, in extension, also during this weekend. However, as prices plummeted, new ghosts emerged, and the dangers of impactful insolvencies have contributed to further drag on the crypto market,\u201d they say in \u201cThe Weekly Update\u2019.\u201d<\/p>\n
When Arcane Research says \u201c impactful insolvencies,\u201d they certainly refer to the Celsius case.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhile the crisis in Celsius has contributed to putting a further drag on the market, the initial catalyst was the inflation surprise in the U.S. We note a decline in the 90-day correlation between BTC and S&P 500. However, short-term correlations grew heavily following Friday\u2019s inflation news \u2013 with the market preparing for more hawkish policies enacted by the FED.\u201d<\/p>\n
The fact of the matter is that bitcoin\u2019s price is determined at the edges of the network. And high time preference people are trading there. And if they want to treat bitcoin as a risky asset, there\u2019s nothing anyone can do about it. Except, somehow, taking advantage of the opportunity it brings.<\/p>\n
Featured Image by Sergei Tokmakov Terms.Law from Pixabay | Charts by TradingView and \u201cThe Bitcoin Monthly\u201d<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_layout":"default_layout","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[82],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1307","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blockchain"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1307","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1307"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1307\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1307"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1307"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1307"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}