{"id":11467,"date":"2022-11-08T02:54:14","date_gmt":"2022-11-08T06:54:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/?p=11467"},"modified":"2022-11-08T02:54:14","modified_gmt":"2022-11-08T06:54:14","slug":"amid-macro-uncertainty-bitcoin-stabilizes-incredible-october-stats-inside","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/2022\/11\/08\/amid-macro-uncertainty-bitcoin-stabilizes-incredible-october-stats-inside\/","title":{"rendered":"Amid Macro Uncertainty, Bitcoin Stabilizes. Incredible October Stats Inside"},"content":{"rendered":"

The world is upside down. Is bitcoin stable now? Or is everything else extremely volatile all of a sudden? As the planet descends into chaos, bitcoin remains in a weird limbo that\u2019s uncharacteristic of the asset and doesn\u2019t seem to end. That\u2019s both what it feels like and what the stats say. In the latest ARK Invest\u2019s The Bitcoin Monthly<\/a> report, they put it like this, \u201cbitcoin finds itself in a tug of war between oversold on-chain conditions and a chaotic macro environment.\u201d<\/p>\n

What about the numbers, though? The stats support the thesis, \u201cfor the third month in a row, bitcoin continues to trade between support at its investor cost basis ($18,814) and resistance at its 200- week moving average ($23,460).\u201d Three months in that range seems like too much. Something\u2019s got to give. However, that\u2019s what everyone\u2019s been thinking for the last few months and we\u2019re still here.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Dollar Milkshake Theory<\/h2>\n

Bitcoin has been less-volatile than usual, sure, but the main factor here is that the whole world is falling to pieces. Every company is in the red, especially techy ones, and all of the world\u2019s currencies except the dollar fell off a cliff. Are we seeing \u201cthe dollar milkshake theory\u201d playing out in front of our own eyes? It sure feels that way. Global central banks have been printing bills like there\u2019s no tomorrow, and that extra liquidity is there for the stronger currency to take.<\/p>\n

According to professional investor Darren Winter<\/a>, the \u201cdollar milkshake theory views central bank liquidity as the milkshake and when Fed\u2019s policy transitions from easing to tightening they are exchanging a metaphoric syringe for a big straw sucking liquidity from global markets.\u201d If that\u2019s what we\u2019re seeing, what happens next? Back to The Bitcoin Monthly, ARK says:<\/p>\n

\u201cAs macro uncertainty and USD strength have increased, foreign currency pairs have been impacted negatively while bitcoin has been relatively stable. Bitcoin\u2019s 30-day realized volatility is nearly equivalent to that of the GBP and EUR for the first time since October 2016\u201d<\/p>\n\n

BTC price chart for 11\/07\/2022 on Bitstamp | Source: BTC\/USD on TradingView.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Bitcoin Vs. Other Assets In October<\/h2>\n

The macro-environment has been so bad lately, that there\u2019s the perception that bitcoin has been doing better than stocks. The facts are that, for the first time since 2020, \u201cbitcoin\u2019s 30-day volatility is on par with the Nasdaq\u2019s and the S&P 500\u2019s.\u201d And, we know past performance doesn\u2019t guarantee future results, but \u201cthe last time bitcoin\u2019s volatility declined and equaled the rising volatility of equitiy indices was in late 2018 and early 2019, preceding bullish moves in the BTC price.\u201d<\/p>\n

However, let\u2019s not kid ourselves, bitcoin has not been doing good. The thing is, not much is prospering out there. Especially in the tech sector. \u201cThe price drawdowns from alltime high in Meta (-75.87%) and Netflix (-76.38) have exceeded that of bitcoin\u2019s (-74.46%). To a lesser extent, Amazon also suggests a correction proportional to that of BTC\u2019s \u201cusual\u201d volatility (-48.05%).\u201d<\/p>\n

According to The Bitcoin Monthly, the situation \u201csuggests the severity of the macroeconomic environment and bitcoin\u2019s resilience against it.\u201d<\/p>\n

The only constant is change, however. Bitcoin\u2019s stability suggests a violent breakout, either up or down. The entire world can\u2019t remain the red forever, something or someone has got to rise above the crowd and show everyone how it\u2019s done. We\u2019ve been waiting for a resolution for what feels like ages, and we\u2019ll probably have to wait some more. There will be a movement, though. When we least expect it, probably. <\/p>\n

Featured Image: Bitcoin 3D logo from The Bitcoin Monthly<\/a> | Charts by TradingView<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

The world is upside down. Is bitcoin stable now? Or is everything else extremely volatile all of a sudden? As the planet descends into chaos, bitcoin remains in a weird limbo that\u2019s uncharacteristic of the asset and doesn\u2019t seem to end. That\u2019s both what it feels like and what the stats say. In the latest ARK Invest\u2019s The Bitcoin Monthly<\/a> report, they put it like this, \u201cbitcoin finds itself in a tug of war between oversold on-chain conditions and a chaotic macro environment.\u201d<\/p>\n

What about the numbers, though? The stats support the thesis, \u201cfor the third month in a row, bitcoin continues to trade between support at its investor cost basis ($18,814) and resistance at its 200- week moving average ($23,460).\u201d Three months in that range seems like too much. Something\u2019s got to give. However, that\u2019s what everyone\u2019s been thinking for the last few months and we\u2019re still here.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Dollar Milkshake Theory<\/h2>\n

Bitcoin has been less-volatile than usual, sure, but the main factor here is that the whole world is falling to pieces. Every company is in the red, especially techy ones, and all of the world\u2019s currencies except the dollar fell off a cliff. Are we seeing \u201cthe dollar milkshake theory\u201d playing out in front of our own eyes? It sure feels that way. Global central banks have been printing bills like there\u2019s no tomorrow, and that extra liquidity is there for the stronger currency to take.<\/p>\n

According to professional investor Darren Winter<\/a>, the \u201cdollar milkshake theory views central bank liquidity as the milkshake and when Fed\u2019s policy transitions from easing to tightening they are exchanging a metaphoric syringe for a big straw sucking liquidity from global markets.\u201d If that\u2019s what we\u2019re seeing, what happens next? Back to The Bitcoin Monthly, ARK says:<\/p>\n

\u201cAs macro uncertainty and USD strength have increased, foreign currency pairs have been impacted negatively while bitcoin has been relatively stable. Bitcoin\u2019s 30-day realized volatility is nearly equivalent to that of the GBP and EUR for the first time since October 2016\u201d<\/p>\n

BTC price chart for 11\/07\/2022 on Bitstamp | Source: BTC\/USD on TradingView.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Bitcoin Vs. Other Assets In October<\/h2>\n

The macro-environment has been so bad lately, that there\u2019s the perception that bitcoin has been doing better than stocks. The facts are that, for the first time since 2020, \u201cbitcoin\u2019s 30-day volatility is on par with the Nasdaq\u2019s and the S&P 500\u2019s.\u201d And, we know past performance doesn\u2019t guarantee future results, but \u201cthe last time bitcoin\u2019s volatility declined and equaled the rising volatility of equitiy indices was in late 2018 and early 2019, preceding bullish moves in the BTC price.\u201d<\/p>\n

However, let\u2019s not kid ourselves, bitcoin has not been doing good. The thing is, not much is prospering out there. Especially in the tech sector. \u201cThe price drawdowns from alltime high in Meta (-75.87%) and Netflix (-76.38) have exceeded that of bitcoin\u2019s (-74.46%). To a lesser extent, Amazon also suggests a correction proportional to that of BTC\u2019s \u201cusual\u201d volatility (-48.05%).\u201d<\/p>\n

According to The Bitcoin Monthly, the situation \u201csuggests the severity of the macroeconomic environment and bitcoin\u2019s resilience against it.\u201d<\/p>\n

The only constant is change, however. Bitcoin\u2019s stability suggests a violent breakout, either up or down. The entire world can\u2019t remain the red forever, something or someone has got to rise above the crowd and show everyone how it\u2019s done. We\u2019ve been waiting for a resolution for what feels like ages, and we\u2019ll probably have to wait some more. There will be a movement, though. When we least expect it, probably. <\/p>\n

Featured Image: Bitcoin 3D logo from The Bitcoin Monthly<\/a> | Charts by TradingView<\/a><\/p>\n

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