{"id":10275,"date":"2022-10-21T09:56:55","date_gmt":"2022-10-21T13:56:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/?p=10275"},"modified":"2022-10-21T09:56:55","modified_gmt":"2022-10-21T13:56:55","slug":"will-bitcoin-see-a-repeat-of-november-2018-a-look-at-the-on-chain-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/2022\/10\/21\/will-bitcoin-see-a-repeat-of-november-2018-a-look-at-the-on-chain-data\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Bitcoin See A Repeat Of November 2018? A Look At The On-Chain Data"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Bitcoin price is lingering just under $19,000 at the time of writing, not far from the local low of $18,300. When the Consumer Price Index (CPI)<\/a> and Producer Price Index (PPI) data was released last week, the BTC price plunged to just that price level.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin lingering under $19.000. Source: TradingView<\/a><\/p>\n

Unexpectedly for many, a very quick rebound happened, catching shorters off guard. With November 02 \u2013 when the FED<\/a> meets again \u2013 in mind, the Bitcoin price doesn\u2019t have much room to fall below that level at the moment. Moreover, a look at the on-chain suggests another crash is possible in the short term, although there are positive signals as well.<\/p>\n

According<\/a> to CryptoQuant, a bear market signal appears when the realized price of all long-term holders (blue line) goes above the realized price of all coins bought (red line) and when the BTC price falls below the realized price of long-term holders and the realized price of all coins.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s downside potential. Source: CryptoQuant<\/a><\/p>\n

The analysis concludes that the Bitcoin price has been in a bear market for 124 days. In this respect, the drop from $6,000 to $3,000 is comparable to the price decline from $30,000 to $18.000, as the percentage decline in the last bear market from $6,000 to $3,000 was 50%.<\/p>\n

That being said, the bottom may not have been seen yet:<\/p>\n

The drop from $30.7k to $18.2k was 41%. A 50% drop from $30.7k would put BTC at $15k (-18% from the current price). Similar to the $14.7k delta price.<\/p>\n

Contradictory On-Chain Data For Bitcoin<\/p>\n

With Santiment, another major on-chain analysis service stated that the Bitcoin market needs to ideally see accumulation at the moment, while small traders remain bearish and spread doom and gloom.<\/p>\n

However, contradictory data is showing up in this regard. Thus, Bitcoin\u2019s small to mid-sized addresses (with 0.1 to 10 BTC) have recently reached an all-time high of 15.9% of available supply. At the same time, whales with 100 to 10,000 BTC have recorded a 3-year low of 45.6% of supply.<\/p>\n

On the bullish side, Bitcoin experienced a massive outflow of coins from exchanges on October 18. Santiment recorded the largest daily volume in 4 months, amounting to 40,572 BTC. With this, the supply of coins on all exchanges has dropped to 8.48%. This means that the risk of a future sell-off has decreased at least somewhat.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin exchange supply at a 4-year low. Source: Twitter<\/a><\/p>\n

Bullish data is also reported by the third major on-chain data provider Glassnode. Bitcoin supply<\/a> which has not moved in the last 6 months is approaching an all-time low. It currently stands at 18.12% of circulating supply or about 3.485 million BTC. Glassnode writes<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Historically, very low volumes of mobile supply typically occur after prolonged bear markets.<\/p>\n

Jim Bianco, President of Bianco Research LLC, recently quoted<\/a> an old trader\u2019s adage, \u201cNever short a dull market,\u201d which may apply more than ever to the Bitcoin market.<\/p>\n

According to his analysis, the realized volatility meaning the backwardation or actual volatility is at a 2-year low and is recording one of the lowest levels of all time.<\/p>\n

Markets bottom on apathy, not excitement. BTC and ETH have apathy.\u00a0The S&P 500 is nearly the opposite, as prices move around like a video game.\u00a0 This might also be another sign of the TradFi\/Crypto tight relationship breaking.\u00a0If so, this is long-run bullish for crypto.<\/p>\n

Diverging volatility could therefore be a sign of this shift and ultimately trigger a long-term positive trend.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

The Bitcoin price is lingering just under $19,000 at the time of writing, not far from the local low of $18,300. When the Consumer Price Index (CPI)<\/a> and Producer Price Index (PPI) data was released last week, the BTC price plunged to just that price level.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin lingering under $19.000. Source: TradingView<\/a><\/p>\n

Unexpectedly for many, a very quick rebound happened, catching shorters off guard. With November 02 \u2013 when the FED<\/a> meets again \u2013 in mind, the Bitcoin price doesn\u2019t have much room to fall below that level at the moment. Moreover, a look at the on-chain suggests another crash is possible in the short term, although there are positive signals as well.<\/p>\n

According<\/a> to CryptoQuant, a bear market signal appears when the realized price of all long-term holders (blue line) goes above the realized price of all coins bought (red line) and when the BTC price falls below the realized price of long-term holders and the realized price of all coins.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s downside potential. Source: CryptoQuant<\/a><\/p>\n

The analysis concludes that the Bitcoin price has been in a bear market for 124 days. In this respect, the drop from $6,000 to $3,000 is comparable to the price decline from $30,000 to $18.000, as the percentage decline in the last bear market from $6,000 to $3,000 was 50%.<\/p>\n

That being said, the bottom may not have been seen yet:<\/p>\n

The drop from $30.7k to $18.2k was 41%. A 50% drop from $30.7k would put BTC at $15k (-18% from the current price). Similar to the $14.7k delta price.<\/p>\n

Contradictory On-Chain Data For Bitcoin<\/p>\n

With Santiment, another major on-chain analysis service stated that the Bitcoin market needs to ideally see accumulation at the moment, while small traders remain bearish and spread doom and gloom.<\/p>\n

However, contradictory data is showing up in this regard. Thus, Bitcoin\u2019s small to mid-sized addresses (with 0.1 to 10 BTC) have recently reached an all-time high of 15.9% of available supply. At the same time, whales with 100 to 10,000 BTC have recorded a 3-year low of 45.6% of supply.<\/p>\n

On the bullish side, Bitcoin experienced a massive outflow of coins from exchanges on October 18. Santiment recorded the largest daily volume in 4 months, amounting to 40,572 BTC. With this, the supply of coins on all exchanges has dropped to 8.48%. This means that the risk of a future sell-off has decreased at least somewhat.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin exchange supply at a 4-year low. Source: Twitter<\/a><\/p>\n

Bullish data is also reported by the third major on-chain data provider Glassnode. Bitcoin supply<\/a> which has not moved in the last 6 months is approaching an all-time low. It currently stands at 18.12% of circulating supply or about 3.485 million BTC. Glassnode writes<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Historically, very low volumes of mobile supply typically occur after prolonged bear markets.<\/p>\n

Jim Bianco, President of Bianco Research LLC, recently quoted<\/a> an old trader\u2019s adage, \u201cNever short a dull market,\u201d which may apply more than ever to the Bitcoin market.<\/p>\n

According to his analysis, the realized volatility meaning the backwardation or actual volatility is at a 2-year low and is recording one of the lowest levels of all time.<\/p>\n

Markets bottom on apathy, not excitement. BTC and ETH have apathy.\u00a0The S&P 500 is nearly the opposite, as prices move around like a video game.\u00a0 This might also be another sign of the TradFi\/Crypto tight relationship breaking.\u00a0If so, this is long-run bullish for crypto.<\/p>\n

Diverging volatility could therefore be a sign of this shift and ultimately trigger a long-term positive trend.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_layout":"default_layout","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[82],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10275","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blockchain"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10275","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10275"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10275\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10275"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10275"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptocornercafe.com\/cafe\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10275"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}